Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[jaichind]

Is there 2014 deal to keep out SD still on?  I thought I read somewhere that M will back out of that deal after the election.  I could be totally wrong.

[jaichind]

What's the rationale for lending support to Kd versus trying to consolidate Kd support into the other Alliance parties? Does Kd attract a different element of society that may not vote for M or L?

If not would not the Kd vote be wasted from the point of view of a Center-Right alliance ?

[jaichind]

Go SD.

[jaichind]

Go SD.

Yes go Social Democrats!

I am for the other SD

[jaichind]

I do not know much but my prediction

S    23.8
SD  20.1
M    16.7
V    10.1
C      8.4
L      6.0
KD   6.0
MP   5.8
FI    1.7
Oth  1.4

S+MP+V = 39.7
M+C+L+KD = 37.1

M under-performing to the benefit of SD.

[jaichind]

Panic in the Environmental Party: "We are below what the measurements show"

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/8w8J0Q/mps-panikplan-vi-ligger-lagre-an-vad-matningarna-visar

It seems MP is coming out with this just to make sure it can get last minute S tactical voting for MP to ensure a Center-Left plurality over the Center-Right bloc.

[jaichind]

The focus on SD should be fairly positive for SD.  Richard Nixon once said "If you ever hear of a group getting together to stop X, put your money on X."

[jaichind]

SD: 75
M: 72
L: 65
C: 55
KD: 46
S: 41
V: 30
MP: 24
FI: 22

[jaichind]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

[jaichind]

Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

I think that is more about SD over-performed their pre-election polls in 2014 by around 2.5% so if you add in that amount to SD's average polling last couple of days you get the low 20s.

[jaichind]

On Betfair the odds of SD being the largest party is 3/3.15 which implies that it is around a 1 in 3 shot.

[jaichind]

Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.  

[jaichind]

Sweden Democrats leader Åkesson receives death threat: party

https://www.thelocal.se/20180908/sweden-democrats-leader-kesson-receives-death-threat-party

This seems to be from Islamic State



The letter reads

‘We will behead you if you do not withdraw from the election by the end of this week"

Perhaps IS is working secretly with SD ?  This will only push up the SD vote.

[jaichind]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

[jaichind]

It seems that the Center-Left and Center-Right blocs are neck to neck.  If true then SD must have lost some last minute support to M.

[jaichind]

It seems that even if SD over-perform exit polls there is no way they will come in first.  At best a narrow victory over M for second place.  And that is a big if

[jaichind]

Wow ... both exit polls seems to have both blocs neck-to-neck ...

[jaichind]

Anyone that has links to results other than

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

[jaichind]

Watching the SVT live stream I assume they will interview all parties except for SD who has boycotted SVT right ?

[jaichind]

Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.

Why so?

Yeah. Even if exit polls will inevitably be off I think they to contain valuable information.

[jaichind]

2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.

We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...

And for now there is a positive swing toward the Center-Left bloc ..

[jaichind]

The official election site is horrible slow here......

I guess the request load must be massive given the international attention on the SD surge ..

[jaichind]

The count so far is not giving SD the swing it needs to go above 20% and M seems to be over-performing.

[jaichind]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

Yeah, why take the fun out it.  Its like saying, do not bother watching the game since a late minute score might change the result.  Sure, but watching the game has intrinsic entertainment value.

[jaichind]

The results so far seems to imply a slight Center-Right lead over the Center-Left plus SD relative under-performance at a result a good deal below 20% and a clear third behind M.