Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[FredLindq]

No, Decemberöverenskommelsen (DÖ i.e. In english DIE) was killed by the Christian Democrats in 2016.

However both L and C has said that they do not want to govern with the support off SD. So The Alliance (M, L, C and KD) needs to become larger than the left-green (S, MP and V) for a shift off guvernement.

[FredLindq]

The Christian Democrats always "borrows" votes from the Moderaterna every election. I.e. tactical voting from moderate voters. However this time Moderaterna has less voters to "lend".

So we will se that the Christian Democrats slowly gets closer to 4 % this year. However they might not pass the threshold at 4% in the end.

I many Swedish communes (and cities) the threshold is instead 2%. So you migh split you vote voting for Christian Democrats to the Riksdag but Modteraterna at the local level.

[FredLindq]

When I was handing out ballot papers in the last election the Feminist Initiative representative told the voters to vote for the left party or the greens at the regional level were they did not stand so there is a clear tactical voting between these three parties. However the Feminist Initiative  is not dead and has got 1,5% in the polls so I don not think that there votes will got to the Greens. I do not think that social democratic voters will tactically vote for the Greens.

[FredLindq]

They will mostly stay with KD. KD is very strong at the local level especially in Jönköping, "little Jerusalem" and the swedish bible belt i.e. Småland. Even if KD just gets 3% they will survive in the long term. Their youth wing tries to be the swedish republicans and their former leader Sara Skyttedal claims to be the bluest swedish politican.

[FredLindq]

https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".

[FredLindq]

MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.

[FredLindq]

Neither the Moderates and absoloutley not the Centre party has opened that door. The former M party leader Anna Kinberg Batra tried to open that door, M then droped sharply in the opinion polls and Anna resigned.

[FredLindq]

No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.

[FredLindq]

In 2001 it was 40-40 and before that more thought EU was a bad thing. The gap increseaed to 2010. The it has been stable. Sweden has to much to loose from leaving. All major companies are international.

[FredLindq]

Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.

[FredLindq]

The two largest "tabloids" i.e. evening papers are 1) Aftonbladet, socialdemocratic (very close to the party, almost like Pravda) and 2) Expressen, liberal

Although one off the largest morning papers Göteborgs-Posten has recently changed from social liberal to more conservative. I do not think that they will start bashing EU tough.

Even the Sweden Democrats are not completely for leaving the EU. It´s economic spokesperson Oscar Sjöstedt a few days ago wrote an article in Swedens largest business daily newspaper.


"DEBATE. It caused resurrection when Jimmie Åkesson said in Di that Sweden should leave the EU. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act as endorsers to the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie, writes Oscar Sjöstedt, economics spokesman (SD).

The question of a Swedish EU membership is not on the table during a possible government debate this fall. That question shall not be decided by temporary parliamentary majority but shall be subject to a referendum. Therefore, the issue is also not central to this year's constituency, but since it has been woken up, I would like to take this opportunity to reflect on how we look at the matter.

Free trade and transparency in goods, services, capital and labor are favorable to Swedish industry. We want to work for more cooperation with countries both within and outside Europe to handle environmental issues, fight international crime and terrorism. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act for endurance against the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie."

[FredLindq]

Novus poll, Malmö municipal election Published 2018-06-02
Social Democrats: 29,5% (-3,4)
Moderate: 22.6% (+0,6)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)
Left: 11.1% (+2,6)
Liberals: 5.8% (+0.4)
Greens: 5,0% (-3.6)
Centre: 2.3% (+0.6)
Feminist Initiative: 2.2% (-1.0)
Christian Democrats: 1,3% (-0.5)
Others 2,5% (-0.5)

There is a 3%-threshold.

Left-Green-Pink 47,8 (-5,4)
The Alliance 32,0 (+1,1)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)

[FredLindq]

A verk dirty Election so far....

https://www.ft.com/content/47b05d76-ad2e-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

[FredLindq]

V might actually vote No...

They will tell what they have decided later this morning.

[FredLindq]

Rumours has it now tha V votes No.

If so there is a majority against Löfvén.