Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[parochial boy]

The Christian Democrats always "borrows" votes from the Moderaterna every election. I.e. tactical voting from moderate voters. However this time Moderaterna has less voters to "lend".

So we will se that the Christian Democrats slowly gets closer to 4 % this year. However they might not pass the threshold at 4% in the end.

I many Swedish communes (and cities) the threshold is instead 2%. So you migh split you vote voting for Christian Democrats to the Riksdag but Modteraterna at the local level.

You would think the same would end up happening between Social Democrats and the Greens, no? In which case, taking a punt, it would seem both parties wing up over the threshold?

Also, seeing as Feminist Initiative are basically down and out, could their remaining support flow towards the Greens?

[parochial boy]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway? And conversely, is there any chance of SD doing well up North this year? - going by *global trends* analysis, working class small towns like Kiruna or Gallivare seem to have avoided giving them many votes up until now.

[parochial boy]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either

[parochial boy]

there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea

[parochial boy]

It's a long shot, but supposing the Greens, Liberals, KD and FI all fall below the threshold; you could potentially have something like 15% of all votes being "wasted" as it were.

Would that start to lead to some demands for electoral reform?

[parochial boy]

As much as anything, it seems quite, unusual, in the context of a scandiwegie election, to be seeing such a swing away rrom the incumbent at this stage

[parochial boy]

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?

[parochial boy]

I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?

[parochial boy]

It's crazy that there is still such a huge difference between online and phone polling, I mean, someone is going to end up with egg on their face

[parochial boy]

Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

[parochial boy]

Another vague comment on polling, but there does seem to be a theme of SD and SAP underperforming with younger voters; and C plus the smaller left wing parties overperforming. Not surprising of course, but it does contrast with what other people have said in this thread about SD allegedly doing well with the youngs

[parochial boy]

Worth pointing out that in 2014 the combined left actually did very slightly better in Stockholm city than the country as a whole, largely thanks to the "new" left parties FI or MP.

Stockholm county as a whole is a matter, in part because places like Danderyd fall outside the actual municipality.

[parochial boy]

You would instinctively think list MPs a la Sweden would be less inclined to rebel than directly elected ones - no personal vote

[parochial boy]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.

Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.

would be good if SD finished up with 14% though...

[parochial boy]

Some observations:

1. While the Sweden Democrats have become more normalized than before, there still is a taboo in confessing to vote for them (particularly given Swedish culture and mentality). This matters in telephone polls. Only the Sentio and YouGov polls are completely internet-based, and interestingly, they have much higher numbers for SD than the other polls. Sentio came closest to estimating SD's percentage of the vote correctly in 2014. There is no real reason to believe this is not the case this time.

2. SD have had a very solid campaign. No big gaffes in the last weeks, no truly shocking information that was revealed.

3. Immigration and crime by immigrants remain top concerns among Swedes, despite the establishment parties' push to talk about other issues.

Updated prediction:

Sweden Democrats 25%
Social Democrats 22%
Moderates 17%
Left 9%
Center 8%
Liberal 5%
Christian Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
AfS 2.5%
FI 1.5%

Red-Greens 35%
Alliance 35%

Turnout: 88%
Coalition: M, with explicit outside support from KD and L and tacit outside support from SD

Last time there was like a 2-3 point gap between the online and phone pollsters. This time it's been more like 5-6%. I don't know what to predict at this point, but I think a gap that substantial is going to be about far moer than just a "shy SD" effect.

[parochial boy]

I was always going to do something like this, heh

V - 78%
FI - 78%
MP - 71%
S - 61%

KD - 30%
L - 25%
SD - 25%
C - 22%
M - 13%

[parochial boy]

As a leftist I do believe the wealthy should pay more in taxation, however, we've seen in France during Hollande (75% Tax) how some wealthy french families left France to Belgium, London and Switzerland.
The french treasury lost a lot of revenue as a result..

Unfortunately greed is what motivates some people, Adam Smith talked about it, he praised greed at the beginning of his writings he was later horrified when he saw the enslavement of people and cruel nature of humankind in the Carribbean and Virginia.

I believe the wealthy should pay more, but we also saw time after time when taxes are so high wealthy people would move to another country...

That would be why an organisation that can do something about it, like, say, the EU, would be a good thing...

[parochial boy]

Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

[parochial boy]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

Can we not do this?

I don't come here to watch 5 year old Americans farting at each other

[parochial boy]

So, if we say that the most, "pro-refugee/immigrant" parties are C and V, then between them it looks as if they could have actually progressed more than SD? Even factoring the MP losing, it's still pretty even

[parochial boy]

So the commune I was born in is currently at 43% for M, furking terrific boys

Pretty solid result for the left block in Stockholm county as a wholethough, S ahead of M and the left block actually ahead of the right in Stockholm city - that's quite unusual

Actually, come to think about it - the left is progressing in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo - Global trends right?

[parochial boy]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Kista/Rinkeby in Stockholm would be a good example. Rinkebysvängen N  is currently at 56% SAP and 17% V

[parochial boy]

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.

The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Maybe they're just not as obsessed with identity politics as you are?

[parochial boy]

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

Isn't that because of the way that the Exit Poll is done in the UK more than anything else?  I mean I don't know what the process is in other countries but from what I can gather they don't actually collect demographic information in the UK Exit Poll.

Again I'm not a Swedish expert: my rather hot take is that its going to be one of those elections where we sit waiting for the last votes to be counted before its crystal clear.  If we're working on the old rules of Swedish politics (the block that gets the most seats forms government with the other abstaining to keep the SDs out) then who knows at this point: the last count I saw had the two blocks tied although the Alliance were moving forward so they might just get an advantage.  If the option of cross-block governments becomes a thing then the Social Democrats have a clear advantage on forming one of those: the Alliance don't have anyone they can really peel off from the Red-Greens while there is at least a non-zero percent chance of a S-MP-L-C arrangement: although I think that its probably still very unlikely.  Its a bad result for the SDs and I don't see them getting into government at all - and if they do then its going to be as a clear Junior Partner and the history of far-right parties governing as junior coalition partners in right-wing governments isn't great for the electoral prospects of the far right party, at least in the short term.  I mean it'd also hurt the Moderates - it'd seriously strain their relationship with the Liberals and Centre Party and also probably wouldn't be overly popular with their own voters; so I suppose from a long-term accelerationist type view it'd kind of not be that bad for it to happen if you want a few Left governments with big majorities!

That's probably a load of unoriginal drivel; but at least its unoriginal drivel about Sweden which is better than yet another boring discussion about a certain American politician.

I don't see how there is any prospect of SD being in government at all at the moment - knowing what we know about L and C. And bearing that in mind, it might tend to suggest that the route to S staying in government is ever so slightly easier

I'm tempted to say it doesn't matter though, who ultimately winds up being nominally in charge - there will be so little room to manoeuvre for any government that I dare say that the government will resemble a grand coalition in practice if not in name.

(on current numbers, S + MP + C + L have a bear marjority of one)

[parochial boy]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.

I guess M doesn't have a socially conservative profile unlike some other European conservatives, and C and L are the kind of parties that do well with young voters anyway. And I think SAP has a stronger hold on the working-class than many other social democratic parties, which makes it much more of a working-class party, and that might make it less appealing to young middle-class voters? European social democrats usually are on the older side and the Greens (the obvious option for young lefties) were decimated. With older voters you still have some ancestral social democrats I suppose lol.

The 18-21 subsample is probably so small as to be meaningless in terms of block votes. The most obvious pattern is the left-right split is pretty constant through all age groups; except C and V massively overperform with younger voters; and SAP, SD and KD overperform with older voters.

Obviously M's performance is a bit of a blow for my Big Theory, but then again, they did quite poorly in University towns like Lund or Uppsala (look at the results in a studenty area like Fjärdingen for instance) - whereas V and  C (and even SAP) did quite well.