Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Hydera]

How likely do you think it is the Alliance can return to power?  Also with thresholds, do you see parties on either side missing them as if the Christian Democrats make it but Greens miss it that would seem to favour the Alliance whereas Christian Democrats miss it and Greens make it favour the Alliance.  While social democracy is not in quite the crisis it is in much of the rest of Europe (UK and Portugal perhaps being the exceptions and only in Portugal are they well ahead), its nowhere nearly as dominant in the Nordic Countries as it was in the past.  Do you see Nordic voters moving rightwards?

Swedish democrat voters are going towards the M and SocialDemocrats. Because both parties have slowly adopting some of the immigration rhetoric.  Even the Prime minister despite being from a party that was so opposed to SD has said the immigration policy in sweden in the last two decades was a mistake and afterwards instead of it backfiring he actually gained support mainly from those Social Democrat voters while despite what people predicted he didn't lose any support to the other left wing parties.

[Hydera]

Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

Its bursting because SD is calling for an EU exit referendum and despite initial polls showing a drop in support because the idea is very unpopular in Sweden, he's continued to campaign on it. I guess he realized that even if he somehow outpaced the Social Democrats it would be meaningless since he will not be able to form any coalition. My guess is that rather than focusing on getting the first place he wants to build a long term euroskeptic movement which is dumb considering the problems that the UK have been getting since their referendum result.

[Hydera]

The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?

https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/category/countries/s/sweden


If you go back and check older results, Skane has always voted to the right of the country even when the left bloc was more popular in the past. Plus the immigration issue with Malmo becoming heavily settled by immigrants was what made the exurbs turn to the SD.



Also if you look at Sweden in this map, the exurbs of Malmo have lower wealth than that of the Stockholm metro. The conservative bloc tends to do better in areas of Sweden with higher wealth.