Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[mvd10]

I'd be a member and strong supporter of the Moderates but I'd vote for whatever Alliance party needs my vote the most (most likely the Christian Democrats). Voted Moderates in the poll because I'm not going to vote tactically on Atlas .

[mvd10]

How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?

In 2014 the mainstream parties (Alliance + S bloc) signed an agreement which would let the leader of the largest bloc be PM while the other bloc abstains on budgets and other important stuff. Does that agreement still stand?

[mvd10]

Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/rape-case-surge-puts-focus-on-crime-as-swedish-election-looms

https://www.thelocal.se/20180118/reported-rapes-in-sweden-up-by-10-percent

I do wonder how many (marital) rapes committed by white Christian Swedes weren't reported in the 1970s/1980s because of shame or things like that. Still, a very worrisome development. Is this a huge issue in Swedish politics? When I read right-wing blogs (just for fun, don't judge lol) I always read horror stories about the situation in Swedish cities but is it considered a huge issue in Sweden? Do parties other than SD talk about it?

[mvd10]

23.0% Social Democrats
21.0% Sweden Democrats
17.5% Moderates
10.0% Left
8.0% Centre
6.5% Christian Democrats
6.0% Greens
5.5% Liberals
2.5% Others

Don't ask me what happens after this btw. Though I guess something like a continuation of the current government would be most likely since M+KD with SD outside support wouldn't have a majority and the centre-left would be bigger than the centre-right.

[mvd10]

Let’s go Swedish Social Democrats! Centre Party or Liberals! Moderates!

Fixed it for you cuck

[mvd10]

Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.

[mvd10]

https://www.tv4play.se/program/nyheterna/11498234

[mvd10]

Social democrats at 25.4% according to that thing, so I guess they win?

[mvd10]

Left-wing bloc at 41% according to these numbers btw

[mvd10]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

I love the inevitable small, densely populated blue spots in Stockholm though

[mvd10]

Stockholm can turn blue any minute now

[mvd10]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Well, it's not a shocker that they vote against an anti-migrant party but I'd be interested in their turnout rate. If the Red-Green alliance wins by a narrow margin this might just have tipped it towards them. I do wonder whether the dubious S facebook posts where they accused M and other right-wing parties of wanting to take away migrant children without a reason played a role. Probably not though, I don't think that many people read them (and the ones who heard about it probably knew it was a irrelevant local politician spouting nonsense).

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.

Economics, economics, economics. I mean, obviously a disproportionally poor group isn't going to vote for European centre-right liberals. Even if the GOP becomes more accepting of minorities they're still not going to get much higher than 25-30% simply because minority households have much lower incomes.

[mvd10]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.

I guess M doesn't have a socially conservative profile unlike some other European conservatives, and C and L are the kind of parties that do well with young voters anyway. And I think SAP has a stronger hold on the working-class than many other social democratic parties, which makes it much more of a working-class party, and that might make it less appealing to young middle-class voters? European social democrats usually are on the older side and the Greens (the obvious option for young lefties) were decimated. With older voters you still have some ancestral social democrats I suppose lol.

Anyway, this is going to be rather hard. Alliance government with SD support without negotiating with the SD is going to be hard. M and KD might be somewhat open to working with SD (though only SD outside support I guess) and together these 3 parties probably will vote down a left-wing government. Those 3 parties are bigger than the left-wing bloc, which means L and C would have to vote for the left-wing bloc instead of abstaining and I also can't see them doing that. Atleast that's my understanding.

[mvd10]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

[mvd10]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

Wealthy surburban white males are more for V and SD?

Otherwise this forum has to be the least representative of its demographics then.

They're not (I'm going to assume wealthy suburbans in Sweden are disproportionally for M or L, but slightly less so this election). But as far as I know Atlas skews heavily white, male, suburban and wealthy (and LGBT I guess), yet in European polls the right-wing populists and the left always win. I guess the right-wing populists do so well because of American Republicans following Trump and just voting for the ''Trumpist'' option in European countries even though they'd normally be part of a more establishment right-wing party, especially the ones that didn't even vote for Trump in the primaries but support him now. Or maybe centre-right voters are just less idealistic and less inclined to join online political forums lol. Right-wing populists believe the globalists are out to get them, left-wing people tend to be fairly idealistic in general but idk about your average VVD/M/Venstre voter lol.