Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Aboa]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

While SAP has in the past advocated banning religious schools I think the current proposal is to review all schools on a regular basis and to make harder to get license to run one not to ban them.

[Aboa]

I don't remember neither Kasselstrand or Hahne actually saying anything about Palestine after 2011 and even then they justified as a counter move to SD stance against Palestine statehood. I doubt it's in anyway central question in AfS agenda.

[Aboa]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible?

No, not really

[Aboa]

Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

From my point of view this whole talk about Swedishness just seems like a waste of time. Instead of getting bogged down in vague cultural matters which would be incredibly difficult to legislate I just prefer this simple definition:

1) Do you have a Swedish citizenship?
-If yes:
2) Do you feel Swedish?
-If yes:
Then you are Swedish.

So for example this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_Olof_Freudenthal wouldn't be Swedish by your definition.

[Aboa]

Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.

Freudenthal didn't identify as Finland-Swede, in fact much of his work was aimed at proving that Finland's Swedes weren't Finns (in ethnic sense) but part of Swedish nation.

To me it seems absurd to mix ethnicity with legal concept of citizenship and to deny someones ethnic identity just because they don't hold certain citizenship.

[Aboa]

Will V participate in minority government with SAP and MP if there will be only such option and Alliansen minority cabinet after elections?

SAP minority government, which would offer more leeway for Löfven, would probably be likelier in that case.

[Aboa]

Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.

Here's 2014 SVT  prognosis based on exit poll and actual results:

V 6.6  (5.7)
SAP 31.1 (31.2)
MP 7.1 (6.8 )
C 6.5 (6.1)
L 6.0 (5.4)
KD 5.0 (4.6)
M 22.2 (23.2)
SD 10.5 (12.9)
FI 4.0 (3.1)

[Aboa]

Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?

I doubt views of the modern Centre Party leadership reflects the views of average Swedish farmer all that closely.

[Aboa]

Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?

No they still have 22 seats in 13 municipalities. Most importantly in Stockholm.

https://www.dagenssamhalle.se/nyhet/farre-mandat-fi-forsvinner-fran-fyra-fullmaktige-sparr-satter-stopp-23812

Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.

[Aboa]

How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as to get confirmed government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.