Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Mike88]

I think this can be the official thread to the Swedish elections. Therefore, here's the average of the polls: (from Wikipedia)

26.8% S
22.6% M
17.8% SD
  9.9% C
  8.2% V
  4.7% L (FP)
  3.8% MP
  3.0% KD
  3.2% Fi/Others

40.1% Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
38.8% S+V+MP

2014 results:

[Mike88]

More polls: (with some conflicting numbers)

Inizio poll from March:

26.4% S, 105 seats
24.5% M, 97
15.7% SD, 62
  8.8% C, 35
  6.9% V, 27
  5.9% KD, 23
  3.6% L, 0
  3.3% Mp, 0
  2.6% FI, 0
  2.3% Others

42.8% Alliance, 155 seats
36.6% Red-Green, 132

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March. Polled 2,324 voters. MoE of 2.0%

Demoskop poll from March:

27.2% S, 102 seats
21.8% M, 81
18.6% SD, 69
  8.5% V, 32
  7.9% C, 29
  5.1% L, 19
  4.6% Mp, 17
  3.3% KD, 0
  1.8% FI, 0
  1.2% Others

40.3% Red-Green, 151 seats
38.1% Alliance, 129

Poll conducted between 27 February and 7 March. Polled 1,620 voters. MoE of 2.4%

[Mike88]

Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

[Mike88]

2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.

[Mike88]

2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.

We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...

Yeah, it's a really small sample, but if M is underpolling in their strongholds, it doesn't bode well for them and exit polls could be overperforming, big time, M. But, there's a long way to go yet.

[Mike88]

M seems to be over-performing, V and SD seem to be under-performing.

Yeah, it seems that my early reaction was a bit too pessimistic about M. Let's see if the trend continues.

[Mike88]

So, it's still close, but here's the almost final numbers of the Swedish general election 2018:

Riksdag (Parliament):

28.4% S (-2.8 ), 101 seats (-12)
19.8% M (-3.5), 70 (-14)
17.6% SD (+4.7), 63 (+14)
  9.8% C (+2.5), 30 (+8 )
  7.9% V (+2.2), 28 (+7)
  6.4% KD (+1.8 ), 23 (+7)
  5.5% L (+0.1), 19 (n.c.)
  4.3% MP (-2.4), 15 (-10)
  0.4% FI (-2.6), 0 (n.c.)
  1.0% Others (+0.1)

40.6% Red-Green (-3.0), 144 (-15)
40.3% Alliance (+1.2), 142 (+1)

84.4% Turnout (+1.1)

Landsting (County councilis):
 
28.7% S
19.2% M
13.0% SD
  8.6% V
  8.4% C
  7.1% KD
  6.3% L
  4.1% MP
  0.6% FI
  4.0% Others

81.6% Turnout

Kommun (Municipalities):

27.6% S
20.0% M
12.8% SD
  9.7% C
  7.6% V
  6.8% L
  5.2% KD
  4.6% MP
  0.9% FI
  4.7% Others

82.0% Turnout