Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

The court case in the link has dominated coverage in the last week. Two of the three jury members decided not to sentence  a muslim man for spousal violence because he 'comes from a better family than her' and because she was deemed untrustworthy due to going to the police instead of trying to solve the case with his family. The judge and the third jury members wanted him to be sentenced, but with a 2-2 result, there is no conviction.
Both jury members had a immigration background and were appointed by the Centre Party as active members in local politics. One of the two has clearly stated that she thinks Swedish law should allow for Sharia Law rulings. After the intense media attention, both persons have been thrown out of the party, but it is a very poor look for the Centre Party.


 https://www.thelocal.se/20180305/controversial-assault-ruling-sparks-debate-in-sweden-thelocal

This is why the right makes fun of Sweden. In all seriousness though, it's disturbing and sad to watch the native population give their country away. When migrants can get away with crimes because of liberal judges and/or immigrant jurors but the people complaining about it risk arrest for hate speech, it just adds another level of absurdity.

I'd vote SD, but I doubt they could save Sweden even if they did win.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

They are not Swedes or Nords then (exception made for the native non-Germanic Sami up North) any more than I would be Khosian if I moved to Cape Town. Swedes, and indeed all ethic groups, have a right to celebrate and preserve their heritage.

Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.

Here's 2014 SVT  prognosis based on exit poll and actual results:

V 6.6  (5.7)
SAP 31.1 (31.2)
MP 7.1 (6.8 )
C 6.5 (6.1)
L 6.0 (5.4)
KD 5.0 (4.6)
M 22.2 (23.2)
SD 10.5 (12.9)
FI 4.0 (3.1)

If this election is like the last few in Sweden, as well as many across Europe, SD will outperform polls due to social desirability bias. That said, they can't be happy with where the exit polls are putting them right now. The international media will make "far right wins big" the headline no matter what, but SD needs a minimum 20% and second place to be satisfied with the result.

Right now, V is the real winner, as they will either be needed to form a left wing government or they will be the primary left wing opposition to a grand coalition, and thus poised to grow even more at the expense of S.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.

This link isn't working for me. Is there anywhere else with a live results map?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Liberals and Greens are below the 4% threshold right now. Obviously, very few precincts have been counted and they should rise as Stockholm comes in, but it's something to watch out for.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.

The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).

I agree. Reminds me of the situation in Germany last year. A coalition of S, C, and M could get a clear majority, but it would force a lot of concessions on all sides and grant SD a perfect opportunity to claim the title of "the only real opposition."

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

What is C profile? Can they work with S and MP (or even with V)? And most important, what would their voters think if they agree with the Red-green?

C is economically center right and very pro-immigration. It could work with S and MP, but absolutely not with V. I could see them staying out of government by quietly lending the support it needs just to spite SD though.