Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Former President tack50]

Rooting hard for the Social Democrats.

This though the Swedish Social Democrats are probably one of ny least favourites in Europe. Still better than everyone else though

Also, what are the policies of the Sweden Democrats other than "f*** the EU" and "deport inmigrants"? Are they economically left or right?

[Former President tack50]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

[Former President tack50]

Maybe the Pirates are still around?

Looking at the 2014 election, only the Pirates (0.43%) and a tiny party called "Unity" (0.1%) got above 0.1%. I guess all the random tiny parties might add up to an additional 0.5%.

So assuming they all stay at their 2014 levels AfS should be polling at 2.4%

Honestly, if pollsters are polling the Feminist party, there's no reason to poll AfS, which is probably around the same level as them

[Former President tack50]

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

I guess Sweden actually does have literal feminazis XD

[Former President tack50]

According to the latest Sentio poll, a Social Democrat-Green-Left-Centre coalition would have a majority. It could work, However I don't know if that would be compatible with Centre's current economic platform.

Wouldn't that probably just lead to the current Social Democrat-Green government going on, but with both Left and Centre external support?

[Former President tack50]

Also, apparently today a news article came out saying that 58% of all rapes in Sweden are made by first generation inmigrants. 40% by inmigrants from Africa and the Middle East

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

I don't think this is particularly surprising but still, news articles like this probably help SD a lot I guess?

[Former President tack50]

This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

Same here in Spain except it's even worse since large parties can afford to send ballots to every home so in the end a lot of people simply don't bother with small parties

[Former President tack50]

Why are the Sweden Democrats so strong in Skane?

Also, it has always fascinated me how it is that Sweden may be one of the only countries in the industrialized world where the main metropolitan area (Stockholm) tends to be a bit of a right of centre stronghold. In almost every other country the main cities lean left compared to the rest of the country (e.g. London, Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Vienna etc... in Europe, but also Toronto, Montreal, vancouver, New York, LA, Chicago etc...)

Well, I'm not so sure. Here Madrid (both the city and the region) is certainly a traditional right wing stronghold while the left gets bad results there. Barcelona is indeed a left wing stronghold though).

Another counterexample might be Portugal, with at least the Lisbon constituency being fairly representative of the results in Portugal at large.

So while it's very common for the main city to lean left, it's far from a 100% consistent rule.

I guess Stockholm is quite a "bourguesie" city? In that it tends to support parties on the right a lot.

[Former President tack50]

My result for the test (not really surprised; I guess I'd probably vote for S if I were Swedish)

S: 64%
FI: 57%
MP: 56%
V: 53%

SD: 49%
KD: 49%
M: 46%
C: 46%
L: 43%

I guess I would be a swing voter though.

[Former President tack50]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

Considering that in Sweden SD seems to be about as toxic as AfD in Germany, it's only fitting that a "grand coalition" would be the best exit.

Though the numbers don't fit for a grand coalition in Sweden, but Sweden is also not afraid of minority governments (unlike Germany) so it could work, or alternatively just bring C and L in.

Though IMO the best option would be for whichever party has the most seats (in this case probably S, but possibly SD) to form a minority government by default. And if the rest want to bring them down, just have a no confidence vote with a viable majority government.

[Former President tack50]

If anyone cares apparently this site has a results map

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

[Former President tack50]

Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...

I personally prefer the former. It's fun to make hot takes from just a handful of polling places at 0.01% counted

[Former President tack50]

I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

There is no reason for them not to vote against Löfven in the confidence vote. Kristersson won't automatically become Prime Minister (it's not a vote between two candidates)  so SD has the opportunity to vote out Löfven with-out having to approve Kristersson if the Speaker suggests him as the new Prime Minister.

Though it would be funny to see SD reward the government for actively voting against Björn Söder by allowing them to carry on until the budget vote in late November. I mean they're not the sharpest bunch but... that would be something.    

If Löfven gets voted out, who becomes the interim prime minister? Does Löfven get to stay until there's a new government?

Also, does no budget mean a snap election is mandatory? Or is it just one of those things that are political custom but not written into law anywhere?

[Former President tack50]

Considering that the difference in seats between S-V-MP and M-C-L-KD is only of 1 seat, I wonder, could 1 or 2 people from S or MP simply defect from the party and abstain?

That way an Alliance government (with abstentions from SD and the 2 defectors) would be possible. It would also be incredibly controversial but still.

If not, I guess a new election will simply mean that the left will be demoralized and the Alliance will overtake the Red-Greens and/or the Greens drop out of parliament, and so an Alliance government will happen anyways.

[Former President tack50]

What about an "independent" consensus government? Kind of like Italy with Monti?

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, what's the point of having both Liberals and Centre? They seem quite similar to me tbh