Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.

The Greens have gone up a bit too and are now more securely above 4% - was this also to do with the debate?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.

The Greens have gone up a bit too and are now more securely above 4% - was this also to do with the debate?

No, that almost definately has to do with the abnormally warm summer we've had, with a severe drought that ruined farmers crops, and a very large number of forest fires back in July. Some of them very widespread. The Greens were able to fairly successfully tie this to climate change, which has seen their support go up.

Tack. I was aware of the awful summer Sweden had had but didn't know how that had impacted on politics. Interesting.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 88%

incredible

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.

Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

S 27.0
SD 20.9
M 15.3
V 9.2
C 7.5
KD 7.4
L 6.0
MP 4.5
FI 0.7
AfS 0.2

I actually suspect S will overperform a bit off the back of people not wanting to see SD 'win'. C seem to me to be losing momentum while KD visibly have it. M will lose a lot of people to SD and return to Erlander-era numbers for the foreseeable future. AfS will get a derisory total and all the attention they got will look faintly silly.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Shocking result here as the citizens of Sweden decide at the last minute to give a slight boost to the party which in Sweden has been traditionally associated with order and normality in the face of a surge by another party they see as radical and dangerous. Absolutely incomprehensible.