Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[bigic]

C 76%
KD 72% (?!)
M 69%
L 63%
MP 47%
S 45%
SD 40%
V 38%
FI 33%

[bigic]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

The problem is that Centre and Liberal voters don't want this (according to Ipsos). Just 25% of Liberal voters want co-operation with Sweden Democrats, the figure for Centre voters is even lower - 8%. Although 64% of Moderate voters and 72% of Christian Democrat voters are in favour - but there is currently no M-SD-KD majority.

[bigic]

Counting of the overseas votes has changed the seat distribution inside the two blocs. It's still 144 Red-Green vs. 143 Alliance, but the Greens gained a seat at the expense of S, and L gained a seat at the expense of KD.
valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html

[bigic]

In my opinion the poor result of AfS is good because it shows that there is almost no space in Sweden for a party right of SD. SD did worse than predicted, which is also good, but they did better than in 2014. which is bad.

[bigic]

Isn't the Alliance's position that they are larger than the Red-Greens because Left Party didn't participate in the previous government?

[bigic]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. There is no M-KD-SD majority.
2. Policy changes that C and L want (they are necessary in such a hypothetical co-operation because of 1.)  mostly don't overlap with the policy changes that the SD want.

[bigic]

Norlen's first try is Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates.
https://www.thelocal.se/20181002/swedish-parliamentary-speaker-asks-centre-right-leader-to-form-government-ulf-kristersson-moderate

[bigic]

Horby is a small town in Scania (south of Sweden) - small town and rural Scania and Blekinge (also in southern Sweden) is where the Sweden Democrats are strongest.

[bigic]

Support for all parties in Sweden remained relatively stable since the election, with a minor gain for the Social Democrats and a minor loss for the Moderates.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1048529748031430657
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1048242782719160326

[bigic]

Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

[bigic]

I hope you mean that ironically.