Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote (user search)
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote (search mode)
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74075 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 03, 2018, 05:18:46 PM »

How likely do you think it is the Alliance can return to power?  Also with thresholds, do you see parties on either side missing them as if the Christian Democrats make it but Greens miss it that would seem to favour the Alliance whereas Christian Democrats miss it and Greens make it favour the Alliance.  While social democracy is not in quite the crisis it is in much of the rest of Europe (UK and Portugal perhaps being the exceptions and only in Portugal are they well ahead), its nowhere nearly as dominant in the Nordic Countries as it was in the past.  Do you see Nordic voters moving rightwards?
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2018, 09:57:50 PM »

Any chance of a Swedexit referendum if the Sweden Democrats do better than expected.  Yes risky, but considering how close the British one was and how things haven't been going great, it might be a way to shut down the issue.  Other idea perhaps is for Sweden to remain in the EU, but leave the Scheghen Agreement (UK and Ireland are not part of it) and re-establish border controls although not sure what the public attitude is on this. 

If Sweden Democrats come in first, is convention they get first chance to try and form government (Off course they will fail) or does the king speak with all the parties and give the mandate to whomever he feels is most likely to form one as opposed to the largest party?
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2018, 02:47:05 PM »

No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.


I thought Eurosceptism was quite strong in Sweden?  Has Brexit led to a strong shift in the idea being a bad one as I heard in Denmark support for leaving EU dropped dramatically after Brexit negotiations got under way.  The odd thing is Brexit for all its woes hasn't been as bad as opponents said it would be, but it hasn't been smooth either like the supporters claimed.  I guess having someone drive around in a bus saying we send so much to the EU each week, lets spend on health care won't work as the 350 million pound bus was called out as a lie afterwards.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2018, 11:01:55 PM »

You mean saying we see send 600 million SEK to Brussels every week lets spend it on health care instead (Adjusting for exchange rate and population) wouldn't work like the 350 million pound bus Boris Johnson rode around in.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2018, 01:08:49 PM »

Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.

True enough. Does Sweden by chance have any papers like the Daily Mail, Express, or Sun which regularly engage in EU bashing (as I think that had an influence in UK so if you lack those might explain difference). Also what are the numbers like for those migrating from other EU member states as I believe with English being the most widely spoken foreign language (Regardless of legalities tough to live somewhere if you don't speak the language) so UK got an unusually high number of people from elsewhere in the EU thus leading to Brexit. If numbers smaller probably less of an issue.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2018, 07:16:06 PM »

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2018, 08:44:53 PM »

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.

I don't know that I'd say it's most true in the UK. It's a relatively recent phenomenon everywhere, but there are clear elections where the pattern started (2004 Presidential election in the US, 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK), and the UK example is much more recent. US vs. UK age gaps also seem to be similar (though it is true that the age gap in the US is partially a gap in race/ethnicity among young voters as compared to older voters - I suspect that's also true to some extent in the UK but perhaps to a lesser degree).

Anyway, totally agree that more or less no real age gap, or S in particular doing best among older voters, is not very surprising. (I'd be shocked if MP did best among older voters, though!) My understanding is that, outside of the Anglophone countries, it's a combination of traditional favoring of social democratic policies by older voters combined with a view that the left are the guardians of elder-care and social safety net for the elderly policies.

In the case of Canada and New Zealand could also be due to progressive parties, Labour in New Zealand, Liberals in Canada having relatively youthful leaders so it would be interesting if in Sweden, the Social Democrats choose a younger more charismatic leader.  I believe the Danish Social Democrats have a younger leader so be interesting to see how it breaks down by age there.

Also part of it could be universities and colleges.  In North America at least, they are very strong left wing echo chambers whereas I am not sure if that is the case in Europe as well as also in the English speaking countries the right tends to be more ideological and you usually lack a more moderate centre-right party so its quite possible if you had multiple parties on the right instead of just one, the more moderate one would do better amongst younger voters.
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