Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm so old that I remember when this particular board used to be a place to discuss psephology, not a place where people posted propaganda.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.

That's why it would be a good thing though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

Given that most Swedish political parties are unusually pragmatic - in different ways o/c - to such an extent that we can even label it an important part of Swedish political culture, the Greens are a great mystery.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So long as you don't confuse tendencies with rules, then precedent is always something to bear in mind. Of course it isn't as if there's much uniformity with Swedish polling at present: different firms are showing strikingly divergent pictures.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This comes up every election, but the answer is mostly to do with the unusual pattern that industrialisation took in Sweden, with industry (and so the formation of working class identity etc) being concentrated mostly in small towns in the provinces.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General summary of the polling situation...

SAP - between 22.1% and 26.5%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
M - between 16.3% and 18.2%, with most polls showing about 17%.
SD - between 16.8% and 24.8%, with some very marked disagreements between polling firms. Most polls show high teens.
M - between 3.6% and 6.2%, with most polls showing around 5%.
C - between 6.0% and 9.6%, with most polls showing around 8%.
V - between 9.4% and 11.1%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
L - between 4.9% and 6.8%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
KD - between 4.8% and 7.0%, with most polls showing around 6%.

Almost all polls have shown an SAP lead (some quite large), and the exceptions have been within the MoE.

As for the two main party blocs:

Left - between 37.2% and 42.2%.
Bourgeois - between 34.4% and 39.9%.

All polls this month have had a Left lead, though sometimes within the MoE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The level of analysis in this thread through the campaign has been really low - everyone insisting that whatever they wish to be so is an iron rule, when the reality is that things are quite uncertain. There are a lot of variables, there is a lot of information we don't have and the precedents to make assumptions on aren't fantastic. Would be nice if people were to raise their games slightly when the actual results come in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can everyone please behave? Keep the crassness to your various other Online haunts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SAP 25.4, V 9.8, MP 5.8 - 41.0
M 18.4, C 9.4, KD 6.6, L 5.7 - 40.1
SD 16.4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can everyone please behave? Keep the crassness to your various other Online haunts.

Too late. There is another thread about Brazil where the far-lefts and the far-rights are justifying murdering each other. I would say this whole enterprise is beyond saveable.

Dance, dance, the Weimar cosplay.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was it expected that the two coalitions would be so close to each other?

Yes - nearly all polls had a Left lead within the MoE, often less than 1pt.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not groovy guys.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think some people need to learn how to integrate into the norms of Atlas IE Board Society.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The exit poll data that's been poured over doesn't look to have been adjusted to take into account the differences between the exit poll and the actual results*, so, you know, be careful my dearies.

_{*Mind you there are issues with doing that... often the reason for serious error would in fact be a wrong 'reading' of the electorate, poor samples etc...}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. Why are the left-leaning parties so strong up north? What is the industry there?

Extractive-based heavy industries, including mining and so on. For instance, the Kiruna Mine - the largest iron mine in the world - is in Norrbotten.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not after they were all sterilised, no...