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January 21, 2018, 03:04:52 pm
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| | |-+  Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017
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Author Topic: Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017  (Read 1972 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2018, 12:20:11 pm »
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My prediction for the runoff:

51.1% Drahoš
48.9% Zeman

Turnout: 63%
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #26 on: January 15, 2018, 09:35:00 am »
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Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.

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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2018, 10:03:42 am »
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Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.


Drahos has been endorsed by all the other candidates except the two on the far right (Hynek and Hannig), which should count for something. I think he will win quite comfortably.
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Heat
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« Reply #28 on: January 15, 2018, 01:53:43 pm »
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Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0
lol
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It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
Bojicat
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« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2018, 09:26:46 am »
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Tuesday's no-confidence vote ensures a Babis double-duty push to keep his high-placed friend in Prague Castle, or else. I'm inclined to think he'll succeed. The Drahos challenge depends on, in reality, enhanced support from East/West and Central Prague + Czechs abroad. The rest of Czechia is Zeman’s to lose. To step past 50% the second round on a 26% first-round finish is a mighty tall mountain for Drahos to climb, even with the heavy-lift assist of the five defeated rival candidates using pulleys and ice-axes.

Extracting an arbitrary chunk of voter support from each of these five losing candidates then tacking it with that of Drahos' to reach your magic number is, to say the least, unscientific. No one has any idea what percentage of support will go where, or how much more vote is out there. Any one else's guess will be as good as yours.

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2018, 10:26:23 am »
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The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

I think that is far too simplistic. You are very focused on immigration, so you expect the Czech voters to be as well, but other issues, including what kind of president you want, will play a role as well. Remember that this isn't an executive presidency.

For what its worth the first poll with its entire sample collected after the first round (13-17/1) from Phoenix Research has it as a near tie with more than a quarter undecided, and Zeman polling slightly  lower than his first round result, whereas Drahoš has gained more than ten points.

Jiří Drahoš 37.0
Milos Zeman 35.6
Undecided 27.4%

59.8% of respondents say they plan to vote.
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Bojicat
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« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2018, 11:36:55 am »
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Thanks, Lord Halifax. Fair points.

However, the defenestration of the established parties we saw in the October election, which mostly hit those who tagged Left, was not just a public cry to enhance/maintain the country's immigration quota policy. It was equally an expression of disdain for politicians and political parties who linked themselves to the heavy weight of Brussels, and further, and more poignantly, it was a revolt against the "business as usual" pursuits and thought processes which were calcifying Czechia's political system.

It was a strong, historic vote-booth uprising. Cataclysmic to all the established parties. That cannot be denied.

So I dare say, that with the public's fuse still burning in the tank, which 'package' of credentials and political beliefs has a better chance taking Prague Castle in one week?

Does the public find Zeman distasteful enough to pack him off after just one term? I just don't think so.
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