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November 15, 2019, 08:35:27 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Anatole Deibler)
  Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017
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Author Topic: Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017  (Read 5617 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #50 on: January 27, 2018, 08:33:12 am »

Any indication of the margin Zeman needs before Prague starts coming in?
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kelestian
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« Reply #51 on: January 27, 2018, 08:34:46 am »

if 60%+ for Zeman, he would win. If less than 55%, he would lose
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Diouf
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« Reply #52 on: January 27, 2018, 08:40:48 am »

if 60%+ for Zeman, he would win. If less than 55%, he would lose

So, with the current 57%, it looks like it will be very tight, I guess
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #53 on: January 27, 2018, 08:43:00 am »

And right now he's at 57 Smiley

I think he'll win this with 51% minimum.

Drahos currently 68% in Prague, will that be enough to counteract nearly all the rest of the country, with a lot of high 50's & low 60's for Zeman.

Anyway this is really interesting - very fast counting as always, 4K stations reporting in first 40 mins!

I guess by 4pm local time we should be getting close to the final result.
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Diouf
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« Reply #54 on: January 27, 2018, 08:46:21 am »

With 29.75% counted nationally, Zeman at 56.05%, with 6.94% counted in Prague where Zeman is at 31.57%
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Diouf
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« Reply #55 on: January 27, 2018, 08:55:13 am »

With 46.61% counted nationally, Zeman is at 55.14% with 16.32% counted in Prague, where he is at 31.86%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #56 on: January 27, 2018, 08:56:00 am »

With 46.61% counted nationally, Zeman is at 55.14% with 16.32% counted in Prague, where he is at 31.86%
Don't think this is going to be enough for Zeman.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #57 on: January 27, 2018, 08:57:48 am »

Interesting.

It seems that Prague is roughly comparable with Vienna when it comes to the voting results, but compared with the Czech Republic, other Austrian big cities delivered much more to VdB than other Czech big cities are delivering for Drahos. The rural areas in both countries are also comparable.

So, the medium-sized cities (100.000-400.000 inhabitants) are making the difference here ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #58 on: January 27, 2018, 09:04:19 am »

Over 60% of the total vote counted now, and 29% in Prague. Zeman at 54.5%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2018, 09:04:43 am »

From what I understand, Drahos will only net another 150K votes in Prague (25% counted, up 50K).

But the current nationwide Zeman-lead is more than 200.000, so Drahos will also need to net some additional votes in the rural areas ...

This seems tough.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:15 am »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:17 am »

It seems that Zeman has this in the bag.

I predict him to win by a 51.4-48.6 margin in the end.

The medium-sized cities will make the difference.

Whereas in Austria they went to VdB with the same margin as Vienna, in the Czech Rep. they are voting more like rural areas ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:39 am »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.

No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2018, 09:13:43 am »
« Edited: January 27, 2018, 09:15:28 am by DavidB. »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.
No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.
You're right; I interpreted "net" differently. Drahos is not going to get a 200k+ margin in Prague.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2018, 09:16:46 am »

The runoff map will look like GA, just without the black belt ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2018, 09:27:29 am »

My updated projection:

Zeman will win with 51.7-51.9% in the end.

Or with a 185.000 vote margin.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2018, 09:28:43 am »

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2018, 09:32:26 am »

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.

This is over.

Zeman wins re-election.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2018, 09:49:32 am »

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2018, 09:51:43 am »

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.

Quite surprising and weird that the Czechs would re-elect an old, Russophile alcoholic ...

I really thought Drahos would win this as a checks and balances candidate/option.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2018, 10:04:05 am »

Great news.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2018, 10:13:20 am »

Voting results of big cities:

Prague + suburbs (1.6 million people): 65-70% Drahos (even the suburbs were 65% Drahos)

Brno (380.000 people): 58% Drahos, but the suburbs were 52% Zeman

Ostrava (324.000 people): 62% Zeman, suburbs: 70% Zeman

Plzen (190.000 people): 52% Drahos, suburbs: 58-60% Zeman

Liberec (104.000 people): 51% Drahos

Olomouc (100.000 people): 54% Zeman

---

Zeman did really well in the rural areas bordering Germany (Saxony) and Poland.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2018, 10:23:34 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.
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The Saint
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« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2018, 10:28:54 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2018, 10:32:43 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end

A) Congrats Smiley

B) Yeah. Drahos really underperformed in the medium-sized cities relative to Van der Bellen.
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