Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 13, 2018, 03:25:52 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print
Author Topic: Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017  (Read 4685 times)
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: January 27, 2018, 08:33:12 am »

Any indication of the margin Zeman needs before Prague starts coming in?
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
kelestian
Full Member
***
Posts: 205
Russian Federation
Political Matrix
E: 3.68, S: -3.22

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: January 27, 2018, 08:34:46 am »

if 60%+ for Zeman, he would win. If less than 55%, he would lose
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,298
Denmark
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: January 27, 2018, 08:40:48 am »

if 60%+ for Zeman, he would win. If less than 55%, he would lose

So, with the current 57%, it looks like it will be very tight, I guess
Logged

Double Carpet
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 88
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: January 27, 2018, 08:43:00 am »

And right now he's at 57 Smiley

I think he'll win this with 51% minimum.

Drahos currently 68% in Prague, will that be enough to counteract nearly all the rest of the country, with a lot of high 50's & low 60's for Zeman.

Anyway this is really interesting - very fast counting as always, 4K stations reporting in first 40 mins!

I guess by 4pm local time we should be getting close to the final result.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,298
Denmark
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: January 27, 2018, 08:46:21 am »

With 29.75% counted nationally, Zeman at 56.05%, with 6.94% counted in Prague where Zeman is at 31.57%
Logged

Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,298
Denmark
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: January 27, 2018, 08:55:13 am »

With 46.61% counted nationally, Zeman is at 55.14% with 16.32% counted in Prague, where he is at 31.86%
Logged

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: January 27, 2018, 08:56:00 am »

With 46.61% counted nationally, Zeman is at 55.14% with 16.32% counted in Prague, where he is at 31.86%
Don't think this is going to be enough for Zeman.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: January 27, 2018, 08:57:48 am »

Interesting.

It seems that Prague is roughly comparable with Vienna when it comes to the voting results, but compared with the Czech Republic, other Austrian big cities delivered much more to VdB than other Czech big cities are delivering for Drahos. The rural areas in both countries are also comparable.

So, the medium-sized cities (100.000-400.000 inhabitants) are making the difference here ...
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: January 27, 2018, 09:04:19 am »

Over 60% of the total vote counted now, and 29% in Prague. Zeman at 54.5%.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2018, 09:04:43 am »

From what I understand, Drahos will only net another 150K votes in Prague (25% counted, up 50K).

But the current nationwide Zeman-lead is more than 200.000, so Drahos will also need to net some additional votes in the rural areas ...

This seems tough.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:15 am »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:17 am »

It seems that Zeman has this in the bag.

I predict him to win by a 51.4-48.6 margin in the end.

The medium-sized cities will make the difference.

Whereas in Austria they went to VdB with the same margin as Vienna, in the Czech Rep. they are voting more like rural areas ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2018, 09:09:39 am »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.

No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2018, 09:13:43 am »

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.
No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.
You're right; I interpreted "net" differently. Drahos is not going to get a 200k+ margin in Prague.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2018, 09:15:28 am by DavidB. »Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2018, 09:16:46 am »

The runoff map will look like GA, just without the black belt ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2018, 09:27:29 am »

My updated projection:

Zeman will win with 51.7-51.9% in the end.

Or with a 185.000 vote margin.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2018, 09:28:43 am »

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2018, 09:32:26 am »

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.

This is over.

Zeman wins re-election.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2018, 09:49:32 am »

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2018, 09:51:43 am »

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.

Quite surprising and weird that the Czechs would re-elect an old, Russophile alcoholic ...

I really thought Drahos would win this as a checks and balances candidate/option.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,780
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2018, 10:04:05 am »

Great news.
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2018, 10:13:20 am »

Voting results of big cities:

Prague + suburbs (1.6 million people): 65-70% Drahos (even the suburbs were 65% Drahos)

Brno (380.000 people): 58% Drahos, but the suburbs were 52% Zeman

Ostrava (324.000 people): 62% Zeman, suburbs: 70% Zeman

Plzen (190.000 people): 52% Drahos, suburbs: 58-60% Zeman

Liberec (104.000 people): 51% Drahos

Olomouc (100.000 people): 54% Zeman

---

Zeman did really well in the rural areas bordering Germany (Saxony) and Poland.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2018, 10:23:34 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,733


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2018, 10:28:54 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2018, 10:32:43 am »

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end

A) Congrats Smiley

B) Yeah. Drahos really underperformed in the medium-sized cities relative to Van der Bellen.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines