Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[Lord Halifax]

The Czechs are about to either elect a new president or reelect the incumbent Milos Zeman. The run-off is two weeks after the first round, and its nearly 100% certain there will be a run-off.

Only three candidates had more than 5% support in the latest poll:

- Miloš Zeman, incumbent, ex-SocDem, hardliner on refugees and eurosceptic.
- Jiří Drahoš, scientist, running on restoring dignity to the office.
- Michal Horáček, poet, music producer and businessman.

Though Mirek Topolánek from ODS has been high in a few polls as well.

It looks like a run-off between Zeman and Drahoš, and the latest poll had them tied 45-45 in that scenario with 10% undecided, so it will be a matter of who turns up at the polls. Zeman has been a very blunt, very political and very confrontational president, so there is an enormous difference in style to the cultured and refined Drahoš. The question is whether enough urban and young voters care enough to show up at the polls to throw Zeman out, and whether some of Zeman's traditionalist small town supporters think he has become a bit much and end up staying home.

[Lord Halifax]

Regarding Drahoš I should add that he has flip-flopped on whether he would swear in Communist ministers, which he originally said he wouldn't, and has claimed that he expects the Russians will try to "influence" the presidential election and is convinced they influenced the legislative elections. Zeman then attacked him for spreading conspiracy theories.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Regarding Drahoš I should add that he has flip-flopped on whether he would swear in Communist ministers

Considering the nature of his likely support base this strikes me as, er, brave. Yes. Let's call it brave.

[Sestak]

Go Drahoš!

[MAINEiac4434]

Just going by their Wikipedia pages, Horáček seems like the best. Drahoš was endorsed by the Young Social Democrats though...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I really liked Zeman when he was PM, but my opinion of him as President is low.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Pojd'me Milos!!

[Dr. MB]

I’m supporting Zeman in this one.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Drahoš was endorsed by the Young Social Democrats though...

Best placed to beat Zeman.

[petr sokol]

Some remarks from CZ:
1. Zeman is mainly supported by voters of the ANO movement of the new Prime Minister Babiš (populism of the centre, anti-party politics and so on), of communists and the far right populist movement Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) of Tomio Okamura. Also big part of Social democrats is in favour of him although the majority of the party establishment hates him because of his efforts to destroy the party or at least its current leadership...
2. Drahoš is supported mainly by the voters of centre-right (TOP 09, STAN and KDU-ČSK) but surprisingly also by the voters of conservative ODS whose former PM and party chairman Mirek Topolánek is also running (without official support of the ODS). Drahoš was officially backed by KDU-ČSL and STAN but is running as Zeman or Horáček as the candidate of the citizens (supported by at least 50 thousands of signatures)
3. The most important feature of Zeman’s presidency in international politics is his positive attitude towards Russia and PR China.

4.  Horáček is without political links. I suppose his voters are rather fans of his text of popular songs. He refused any backing by the political parties and is running “direct candidacy”.

[Lord Halifax]

2. Drahoš is supported mainly by the voters of centre-right (TOP 09, STAN and KDU-ČSK) but surprisingly also by the voters of conservative ODS whose former PM and party chairman Mirek Topolánek is also running (without official support of the ODS). Drahoš was officially backed by KDU-ČSL and STAN but is running as Zeman or Horáček as the candidate of the citizens (supported by at least 50 thousands of signatures)

How do you rate Drahoš's  chances if he makes the run-off?

[petr sokol]

He is only one who could beat Zeman in the second round. He is not linked to any political party or even to any political movement. No one knows his political views in details. This the reason why he could unite very broad coalitions from greens to the conservatives and be stronger than Zeman.
Zeman  has very broad group of supporters with about 40 -45 % but he is hated by the second party of the society.
It could be similar to the last Slovak presidential elections Fico (big favourite and political personality) vs. Kiska (not very known businessman).
But big disadvantage for Drahoš is his not very well run campaign. I would bet now for 51:49 in favour of Zeman. It will mainly depend on the turnout (based on divide urban vs. rural) because Zeman is representative of socially conservative but leftist country side and Drahoš has to unite the liberal world in all his different parts which is by us voted on the cities (on one side greens and pirates , on the other side economically liberal conservatives)..

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is Topolanek really surging, or are the Phoenix Research polls trash? Don't know enough about Czech pollsters to tell.

[petr sokol]

Phoenix isnt among the best Czech pollsters. Its number for Topolánek is an exception. In other polls is Topolánek bellow 10 pct. He has better campaign than Drahoš and is the only real politician in the race besides Zeman but is still strugling with public perception of the end of his premirship. His close adviser entered the prison for 4 years few weeks ago....

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Phoenix isnt among the best Czech pollsters. Its number for Topolánek is an exception. In other polls is Topolánek bellow 10 pct. He has better campaign than Drahoš and is the only real politician in the race besides Zeman but is still strugling with public perception of the end of his premirship. His close adviser entered the prison for 4 years few weeks ago....

Thanks for the information.

[petr sokol]

Today is the last today to publish polls before the first round:

Median and TNS Kantar for Czech TV:

Zeman 42,5 % (potencial 49 %)
Drahoš 27,5 % (43 %)
Horáček 12,5 % (31,5 %)
Fischer 7 % (22 %)
Topolánek 6% (15,5 %)
Hilšer 2,5 % (11,5 %)
Kulhánek 1,5 % (9,5 %)
Hynek 0,5 % (8 %)
Hannig 0,5 % (6 %)

Second round:

Zeman 44 % (sure 30 %, 14 % likely) vs Drahoš 48,5 % ( 35 %, 13,5 %)

Zeman 48 % vs Horáček 46 %

Zeman 61 % vs Topolánek 31,5 %

Zeman 50,5 % vs Fischer 42 %

[Celebi]

Prediction:
1. Zeman
2. Fischer
3. Drahos
4.-6. Hilser, Horacek and Topolanek
7.-9. Hynek, Kulhanek, Hannig

[Lord Halifax]

Prediction:
1. Zeman
2. Fischer
3. Drahos
4.-6. Hilser, Horacek and Topolanek
7.-9. Hynek, Kulhanek, Hannig

Based on what? Drahos is second in all credible polls; and why have Fischer that high?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Prediction:
1. Zeman
2. Fischer
3. Drahos
4.-6. Hilser, Horacek and Topolanek
7.-9. Hynek, Kulhanek, Hannig

Based on what? Drahos is second in all credible polls; and why have Fischer that high?

Wishful thinking?

[petr sokol]

Some politicians in CZ believe that Fischer could be another Schwarzenberg from 2013 who jumped as an outsider in the polls to the second. But there are no signs he could replicate this path. Interesting: he is now supported publicky by Schwarzenberg, but not so known in the public

[Bojicat]

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

[Lord Halifax]

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

Its not about "hunches". Most polls have had him narrowly losing to Drahos in a run-off. So its natural to expect it to be a close race.

Its worth remembering that this is not necessarily a political election. Many people want a more distinguished and representative president, who is above politics and less brash. Zeman is unpopular among the urban middle class and might have become too melodramatic and "hammy" for his traditional supporters, who may simply stay home.

[MaxQue]

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

Considering your only other "contribution" here was to predict Hofer would win with 61% of the vote, I wonder who is doing partisan wishful thinking?

[kelestian]

live results
http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/specialy/2315662-volba-prezidenta-2018

[Tender Branson]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.