Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the runoff:

51.1% Drahoš
48.9% Zeman

Turnout: 63%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.

[Lord Halifax]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.

Drahos has been endorsed by all the other candidates except the two on the far right (Hynek and Hannig), which should count for something. I think he will win quite comfortably.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

lol

[Bojicat]

Tuesday's no-confidence vote ensures a Babis double-duty push to keep his high-placed friend in Prague Castle, or else. I'm inclined to think he'll succeed. The Drahos challenge depends on, in reality, enhanced support from East/West and Central Prague + Czechs abroad. The rest of Czechia is Zeman’s to lose. To step past 50% the second round on a 26% first-round finish is a mighty tall mountain for Drahos to climb, even with the heavy-lift assist of the five defeated rival candidates using pulleys and ice-axes.

Extracting an arbitrary chunk of voter support from each of these five losing candidates then tacking it with that of Drahos' to reach your magic number is, to say the least, unscientific. No one has any idea what percentage of support will go where, or how much more vote is out there. Any one else's guess will be as good as yours.

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

[Lord Halifax]

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

I think that is far too simplistic. You are very focused on immigration, so you expect the Czech voters to be as well, but other issues, including what kind of president you want, will play a role as well. Remember that this isn't an executive presidency.

For what its worth the first poll with its entire sample collected after the first round (13-17/1) from Phoenix Research has it as a near tie with more than a quarter undecided, and Zeman polling slightly  lower than his first round result, whereas Drahoš has gained more than ten points.

Jiří Drahoš 37.0
Milos Zeman 35.6
Undecided 27.4%

59.8% of respondents say they plan to vote.

[Bojicat]

Thanks, Lord Halifax. Fair points.

However, the defenestration of the established parties we saw in the October election, which mostly hit those who tagged Left, was not just a public cry to enhance/maintain the country's immigration quota policy. It was equally an expression of disdain for politicians and political parties who linked themselves to the heavy weight of Brussels, and further, and more poignantly, it was a revolt against the "business as usual" pursuits and thought processes which were calcifying Czechia's political system.

It was a strong, historic vote-booth uprising. Cataclysmic to all the established parties. That cannot be denied.

So I dare say, that with the public's fuse still burning in the tank, which 'package' of credentials and political beliefs has a better chance taking Prague Castle in one week?

Does the public find Zeman distasteful enough to pack him off after just one term? I just don't think so.

[Lord Halifax]

The Czech punters think Drahos will win. They also think he will win at least two provincial regions and not just run up the margin in Prague.

"The chances of former Science Academy head Jiri Drahos to be elected Czech president have been rising in the past few days, according to bookmakers who wave lowered the odds for his victory since Monday from 1.6-1 - 1.68-1 to 1.5-1 - 1.52-1, the betting agencies told CTK on Thursday. (..) Bets on Zeman being re-elected are now accepted at the odds from 2.452-1 to 2.75-1."

"Zeman will win in nine out of the 14 Czech regions, while he is a favourite in the Usti, Vysocina and Moravia-Silesia regions (..) Drahos is favourite in Prague as well as the Central Bohemia and Hradec Kralove regions, according to the odds. Fortuna does not even enable bets on his victory in Prague since it is taken for granted."

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/01/19/most-betters-bookmakers-believe-drahošs-victory

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Thanks, Lord Halifax. Fair points.

However, the defenestration of the established parties we saw in the October election, which mostly hit those who tagged Left, was not just a public cry to enhance/maintain the country's immigration quota policy. It was equally an expression of disdain for politicians and political parties who linked themselves to the heavy weight of Brussels, and further, and more poignantly, it was a revolt against the "business as usual" pursuits and thought processes which were calcifying Czechia's political system.

It was a strong, historic vote-booth uprising. Cataclysmic to all the established parties. That cannot be denied.

So I dare say, that with the public's fuse still burning in the tank, which 'package' of credentials and political beliefs has a better chance taking Prague Castle in one week?

Does the public find Zeman distasteful enough to pack him off after just one term? I just don't think so.

I mean, the results from October are a bit of a Rorschach test - you can look at them and see what you want, and a rebuke to the establishment could be just as much bad news for Zeman (who is, after all,  a part of said establishment) as it is Drahos.

[Bojicat]

No doubt as everyone has already heard (since we're all presumably watching developments in this race very closely), Drahos' debate performance vs. Zeman on Monday received very poor marks. Interest was rather high; 2.2 million people watched the debate on Monday. Post-debate polls showed Zeman the better performer at 56%.

Unless Drahos improves tonight, by avoiding a repeat of his glazed, deer-in-the-headlights responses last night, and loosening what appears to be his rather stiff backside, his chances of victory this weekend will be set back irretrievably.

It's "make-or-break." If it's "break," people will justifiably conclude that a candidate who's only claim to fame is that he was a President of the Czech Academy of Sciences is just not ready for primetime.

[Vosem]

Should be noted that the pattern in Czechia has long been for rural areas to both report first and count faster, and for Prague to come in last and still be counting when others are done. The first results should show Zeman with a healthy lead even if Drahos has ended up winning.

[Soonerdem]

Does anyone know how the debate went today? Enough to save Drahos?

[Bojicat]

I thought Thursday's final debate went fairly badly for Drahos. He needed to display forcefully and convincingly to the many doubters out there who question his (quite de minimus) bona fides why he deserved to take Zeman's place at Prague Castle. 

Instead, he was stuck on the defensive for most of the night, especially in relation to questions with regard to his utter lack of political experience. This is a severe weakness on Drahos' part.  The night can be summed up by Drahos' response to these questions: "I am no political newcomer." He left this line hovering in thin air without further elaboration.

Zeman will have two terms.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Miloš said that he’s in favor of a referendum.

Any chance we see #Czexit?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Miloš said that he’s in favor of a referendum.

Any chance we see #Czexit?

Czech-out, surely?

Anyway, I doubt it; unless Babis changes his mind on the EU.

[Vosem]

Does anyone know how the debate went today? Enough to save Drahos?

Zeman is the one who needs saving, not Drahos, given that Drahos leads in polling and has most of the endorsements of other candidates from the first round (ie, if the vote according to the way first-round candidates endorsed, Drahos wins 57-43).

It does seem that Bojicat is correct that Zeman has gained ground on Drahos between the rounds; the pre-first round average of a Drahos vs. Zeman second round was a Drahos win 47.2-43.7. Today it is a Drahos win 43.7-43.3; a virtual tie. Given Zeman's under-performance in the first round, the over-performance for more liberal, pro-European candidates in the first round (undecideds mostly went to candidates that were more, um, liberal than Drahos), and Drahos' continued lead in polling, I'd probably much rather be Drahos. But Zeman certainly still has a shot, and it seems like the past month or so of his campaign has gone pretty well.

[TheSaint250]

I'm gonna say:

Miloš Zeman (SPO): 51.2%
Jiří Drahoš (I): 48.8%

I might be overestimating it, but I think Zeman will (unfortunately) win by more than some expect.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was already some 50% yesterday, so overall it could be much higher than estimated.

Probably close to 70%.

[Dr. MB]

This’ll be close. I strongly support Zeman and am optimistic about his chances, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Drahos wins.

[Lechasseur]

This’ll be close. I strongly support Zeman and am optimistic about his chances, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Drahos wins.

[Double Carpet]

Links:

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

[Diouf]

Polls have closed, and as usual it seems like there will be no prognosis or the like, only real votes. So the Prague results, which will favour Drahos clearly, will come towards the end.

[Double Carpet]

No exit polls as usual in Czech Rep but counting at polling stations as per most countries and only 2 candidates so should be a quick count, Czech Rep usually is pretty fast anyway.

I reckon Zeman to win with 51.5-52.5%.

Thanks, DC

[Double Carpet]

Diouf, I know this isn't the Denmark or Norway thread but thanks so much for all your coverage of these countries recently.

(I didn't realise that Norway coalition formation had continued into 2018, assumed it was going to be another Hoyre + Progress minority govt!)

Anyway have got all the live Czech coverage on for this one so it should be interesting!

Thanks

[Diouf]

Does anybody have a calculated guess of how many voters Drahos will win with in Prague? It seems like turnout overall is a bit higher than in the 1st round