Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[TheSaint250]

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end

A) Congrats

B) Yeah. Drahos really underperformed in the medium-sized cities relative to Van der Bellen.

Thanks

Yeah, it seemed like Drahoš wouldn’t be able to counter Zeman in Czechia. It’s a relatively socially conservative nation, correct?

[smoltchanov]

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.

Quite surprising and weird that the Czechs would re-elect an old, Russophile alcoholic ...

I really thought Drahos would win this as a checks and balances candidate/option.

Almost all Eastern Europe is wary about immigration to at least some extent. Not neccessary as in Hungary, but still wary. And almost all Eastern Europe liked (and frequently - likes) their populists of some sort. So, not so surprising... Think about lot of people here as American WWC workers, who gave victory to Trump (who, btw, is also anti-immigration and prone to populist statements)

[rob in cal]

  Zeman did really well in Northern Moravia, any reasons for this?

[Tender Branson]

Here is a clickable map:

http://widget.ctk.cz/stat/prezvolby18k2/iframe.php

Kraje = region

Okresy = district

Obce = precinct/town

The correlation map is also pretty cool.

[catographer]

The map of results by district for 2013's 1st round and 2018's 2nd round are almost identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Czech_presidential_election_2018_(2nd_round).svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Czech_presidential_election_2013_(1st_round).svg

[rob in cal]

Megameow, those maps are intresting.  Whats striking is that its not just the Prague region, but the whole long snake cutting across central Bohemia going against Zeman.  This must include some fairly rural areas that you'd think Zeman should be winning.

[Dr. MB]

I'm happy Zeman won.

If an EU referendum is called, would it pass or be defeated, or a tossup?

[rob in cal]

  Also, in the Prague region Drahos seems to have done well throughout the area. I would have thought there would be some more working class areas that Zeman would have taken, but it doesn't look like he won a single Prague district.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm happy Zeman won.

If an EU referendum is called, would it pass or be defeated, or a tossup?

It would go down heavily.

[Dr. MB]

This article has one of the most ridiculous headlines I’ve read.

I don’t know how 1) being euroskeptic and 2) opposing immigration automatically makes someone “far-right” according to some. It’s like that article from the New Zealand election describing Winston Peters/the new government as being “far-right”. Has anyone actually looked to the fact that Zeman’s policies are otherwise center-left?

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t survive his presidency.

[rob in cal]

  MB, yes that is the problem with current politics and labels.  If Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, or Harry Reid (the 1990's immigration restrictionist version) or Ben Nelson of Nebraska or other such Democrat immigration restrictionists were still active today they too might be labeled far right, as ones stance on immigration now seems to define ones entire political image and perception.

[Sestak]

This article has one of the most ridiculous headlines I’ve read.

I don’t know how 1) being euroskeptic and 2) opposing immigration automatically makes someone “far-right” according to some. It’s like that article from the New Zealand election describing Winston Peters/the new government as being “far-right”. Has anyone actually looked to the fact that Zeman’s policies are otherwise center-left?

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t survive his presidency.

NZ government is very right-wing on immigration/social issues due to their reliance on Peters.

Zeman's pretty much the same thing plus also a literal Russian stooge.

[Mazda]

This article has one of the most ridiculous headlines I’ve read.

I don’t know how 1) being euroskeptic and 2) opposing immigration automatically makes someone “far-right” according to some. It’s like that article from the New Zealand election describing Winston Peters/the new government as being “far-right”. Has anyone actually looked to the fact that Zeman’s policies are otherwise center-left?

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t survive his presidency.

NZ government is very right-wing on immigration/social issues due to their reliance on Peters.

Zeman's pretty much the same thing plus also a literal Russian stooge.

Sorry, very right-wing?

I accept that aiming to stop being the country with the highest rate of net immigration per capita in the world might seem a little bit illiberal to people who don't know anything about NZ, but "very right-wing" is a line peddled by people who have read the first three paragraphs of Winston Peters' Wikipedia page and rushed off a quick thinkpiece to fill copy.

In the realm of immigration and social issues, the Sixth Labour Government is creating a mechanism for Pacific Islanders to request climate refugee status, creating schemes to recruit skilled migrants from overseas, integrating the Maori language into schooling, increasing paid parental leave, increasing Winter Fuel Payments, starting to fund pensions again after a nine-year gap, fighting child poverty, setting up a historic child abuse inquiry, increasing the minimum wage, reducing benefit sanctions, eliminating the public sector pay gap and giving police officers discretion over when to hand out speeding fines.

Always a pleasure to correct misapprehensions.

On Zeman, though, he is as you say a Russian stooge.

[petr sokol]

  Zeman did really well in Northern Moravia, any reasons for this?

Zeman is former leader of the social democrats and the Nothern Moravia is the biggest stronghold of the left (beside the Nothern Bohenmia) in the Czech Republic.
There are two main reasons: 1. this the former industrial stronghold with miner and steeler tradition and 2. big parts of Nothern Moravia (exactly Nothern Moravia and Czech Part of Silesia) were teritories with German majoroty before 1945. All these former Sudetenland teritories are the most left and the most protest regions of the Czech Republic  in all elections.

[petr sokol]

Megameow, those maps are intresting.  Whats striking is that its not just the Prague region, but the whole long snake cutting across central Bohemia going against Zeman.  This must include some fairly rural areas that you'd think Zeman should be winning.

There are some rural areas but this is the region where was before the 1945 the Czech population, it means no significant German minority.  This is the main cleavage in the Czech elections, even before Moravia vs. Bohemia plus Prague

[Lord Halifax]

Megameow, those maps are intresting.  Whats striking is that its not just the Prague region, but the whole long snake cutting across central Bohemia going against Zeman.  This must include some fairly rural areas that you'd think Zeman should be winning.

There are some rural areas but this is the region where was before the 1945 the Czech population, it means no significant German minority.  This is the main cleavage in the Czech elections, even before Moravia vs. Bohemia plus Prague

But the Germans are long gone. Is this a difference between "colonized land" (people coming from all over the country, no common cultural roots, established civil society etc.) and old established communities?

[petr sokol]

Exatly this is the case. Still you can see this internal  "border" in every elections. In the colonized areas is the different structure in society - higher unemployment, more criminality, lower education......