Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[Lord Halifax]

The Czechs are about to either elect a new president or reelect the incumbent Milos Zeman. The run-off is two weeks after the first round, and its nearly 100% certain there will be a run-off.

Only three candidates had more than 5% support in the latest poll:

- Miloš Zeman, incumbent, ex-SocDem, hardliner on refugees and eurosceptic.
- Jiří Drahoš, scientist, running on restoring dignity to the office.
- Michal Horáček, poet, music producer and businessman.

Though Mirek Topolánek from ODS has been high in a few polls as well.

It looks like a run-off between Zeman and Drahoš, and the latest poll had them tied 45-45 in that scenario with 10% undecided, so it will be a matter of who turns up at the polls. Zeman has been a very blunt, very political and very confrontational president, so there is an enormous difference in style to the cultured and refined Drahoš. The question is whether enough urban and young voters care enough to show up at the polls to throw Zeman out, and whether some of Zeman's traditionalist small town supporters think he has become a bit much and end up staying home.

[Lord Halifax]

Regarding Drahoš I should add that he has flip-flopped on whether he would swear in Communist ministers, which he originally said he wouldn't, and has claimed that he expects the Russians will try to "influence" the presidential election and is convinced they influenced the legislative elections. Zeman then attacked him for spreading conspiracy theories.

[Lord Halifax]

2. Drahoš is supported mainly by the voters of centre-right (TOP 09, STAN and KDU-ČSK) but surprisingly also by the voters of conservative ODS whose former PM and party chairman Mirek Topolánek is also running (without official support of the ODS). Drahoš was officially backed by KDU-ČSL and STAN but is running as Zeman or Horáček as the candidate of the citizens (supported by at least 50 thousands of signatures)

How do you rate Drahoš's  chances if he makes the run-off?

[Lord Halifax]

Prediction:
1. Zeman
2. Fischer
3. Drahos
4.-6. Hilser, Horacek and Topolanek
7.-9. Hynek, Kulhanek, Hannig

Based on what? Drahos is second in all credible polls; and why have Fischer that high?

[Lord Halifax]

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

Its not about "hunches". Most polls have had him narrowly losing to Drahos in a run-off. So its natural to expect it to be a close race.

Its worth remembering that this is not necessarily a political election. Many people want a more distinguished and representative president, who is above politics and less brash. Zeman is unpopular among the urban middle class and might have become too melodramatic and "hammy" for his traditional supporters, who may simply stay home.

[Lord Halifax]

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.

Drahos has been endorsed by all the other candidates except the two on the far right (Hynek and Hannig), which should count for something. I think he will win quite comfortably.

[Lord Halifax]

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

I think that is far too simplistic. You are very focused on immigration, so you expect the Czech voters to be as well, but other issues, including what kind of president you want, will play a role as well. Remember that this isn't an executive presidency.

For what its worth the first poll with its entire sample collected after the first round (13-17/1) from Phoenix Research has it as a near tie with more than a quarter undecided, and Zeman polling slightly  lower than his first round result, whereas Drahoš has gained more than ten points.

Jiří Drahoš 37.0
Milos Zeman 35.6
Undecided 27.4%

59.8% of respondents say they plan to vote.

[Lord Halifax]

The Czech punters think Drahos will win. They also think he will win at least two provincial regions and not just run up the margin in Prague.

"The chances of former Science Academy head Jiri Drahos to be elected Czech president have been rising in the past few days, according to bookmakers who wave lowered the odds for his victory since Monday from 1.6-1 - 1.68-1 to 1.5-1 - 1.52-1, the betting agencies told CTK on Thursday. (..) Bets on Zeman being re-elected are now accepted at the odds from 2.452-1 to 2.75-1."

"Zeman will win in nine out of the 14 Czech regions, while he is a favourite in the Usti, Vysocina and Moravia-Silesia regions (..) Drahos is favourite in Prague as well as the Central Bohemia and Hradec Kralove regions, according to the odds. Fortuna does not even enable bets on his victory in Prague since it is taken for granted."

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/01/19/most-betters-bookmakers-believe-drahošs-victory

[Lord Halifax]

Megameow, those maps are intresting.  Whats striking is that its not just the Prague region, but the whole long snake cutting across central Bohemia going against Zeman.  This must include some fairly rural areas that you'd think Zeman should be winning.

There are some rural areas but this is the region where was before the 1945 the Czech population, it means no significant German minority.  This is the main cleavage in the Czech elections, even before Moravia vs. Bohemia plus Prague

But the Germans are long gone. Is this a difference between "colonized land" (people coming from all over the country, no common cultural roots, established civil society etc.) and old established communities?