How would Obama-Trump voters have voted in a normal election?

[mencken]

Looking at the 2016 results county by county, at least in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan (I assume this to be true in Pennsyvlania as well), you start to notice:

• Trump's increase in votes over Romney is correlated with both increased turnout and decreased Clinton votes over Obama, to varying degrees in each state
• Trump's increase in votes over Romney is correlated with how well Trump did the primary
• Clinton's vote share in the primary is not as well correlated with either statistic

From the above, it seems likely that there were quite a few Democratic-leaning voters in these states who liked Trump and voted accordingly. However, exit polls indicated that almost nobody who liked Trump also liked Clinton, and vise-versa. Thus, it seems difficult to predict how these voters (who exceeded the thin margins of victory in these states) would have voted with Clinton versus a more conventional Republican (e.g. Rubio, Kasich, Bush; Cruz isn't really a conventional Republican either) Would they have voted for Clinton out of habit, abstained out of apathy, or held their nose for a boring Republican out of sheer Clinton dislike?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

[uti2]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

You're saying Bernie would've won? 😎

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

You're saying Bernie would've won? 😎

No. He may or may not have won - I don't have any way of knowing... But Clinton was a terrible candidate.

[mencken]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

The question was geared at how the election would have gone without Trump, not without Clinton (which does not seem so outlandish, considering that was the consensus from 2012 until late 2015)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

The question was geared at how the election would have gone without Trump, not without Clinton (which does not seem so outlandish, considering that was the consensus from 2012 until late 2015)

Without Trump, these people would probably vote for Clinton against a generic establishment R.

[Adam Griffin]

They would have stayed at home, just like many of their comparable peers did do in 2016.

We often think of these individual sub-groups as completely separate blocs, but in reality, they are often one and the same (who merely had a divergence over one decision). The Obama-Trump voters were - by and large - from the same group who stayed at home after voting Democratic in multiple previous elections. One bit the bullet and the other didn't; despite some of the narratives out there, there weren't that many two-time Obama voters who were enthusiastic about Trump.

Another good example of this is the suburban GOP leaning types. You generally find a correlation in many suburban counties between a) larger than average Johnson vote share increases compared to 2012 and b) Romney-Clinton voters: one subset of them ultimately took the plunge and voted for Clinton after voting reliably GOP, while another subset merely defected to Johnson. Despite the meaningful difference between the two electorally-speaking, both would have reliably backed a non-Trump GOP candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton, they probably would've voted for them.

A "normal" election would have been Biden vs. Jeb or Rubio, and I would have voted for Biden.

If by a "normal" election, you mean Hillary vs. a more regular Republican, I would have voted third party for unless the Republican was Rand Paul or Rick Santorum.

There are candidates in each party I like, and candidates in each party I simply will not vote for.

[darklordoftech]

I think Hillary v. Jeb would have a low turnout and people would claim that "the establishment" picked the candidates.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Hillary v. Jeb would have a low turnout and people would claim that "the establishment" picked the candidates.

I don't know who would have won THAT election, but I would think that both candidates would have been under 50%.

[dw93]

I think Hillary v. Jeb would have a low turnout and people would claim that "the establishment" picked the candidates.

I don't know who would have won THAT election, but I would think that both candidates would have been under 50%.

Hillary. I forget who said it (I think it was leaked that Romney said it to a bunch of donors in a private meeting when he was flirting with running in '16), but whoever said it said it best when they said that a Hillary Vs. Jeb! race would be Bill Clinton's Presidency vs. George W. Bush's, and Bill Clinton's Presidency would win.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Hillary v. Jeb would have a low turnout and people would claim that "the establishment" picked the candidates.

I don't know who would have won THAT election, but I would think that both candidates would have been under 50%.

Hillary. I forget who said it (I think it was leaked that Romney said it to a bunch of donors in a private meeting when he was flirting with running in '16), but whoever said it said it best when they said that a Hillary Vs. Jeb! race would be Bill Clinton's Presidency vs. George W. Bush's, and Bill Clinton's Presidency would win.

She wishes.

[dw93]

I think Hillary v. Jeb would have a low turnout and people would claim that "the establishment" picked the candidates.

I don't know who would have won THAT election, but I would think that both candidates would have been under 50%.

Hillary. I forget who said it (I think it was leaked that Romney said it to a bunch of donors in a private meeting when he was flirting with running in '16), but whoever said it said it best when they said that a Hillary Vs. Jeb! race would be Bill Clinton's Presidency vs. George W. Bush's, and Bill Clinton's Presidency would win.

She wishes.

Regardless, I still think she wins it against Jeb!. WWC Obama-Trump voters were hit hard during the financial crisis, why would they vote for the brother of the guy who presided over it, considering the two brothers have identical political views? Jeb might also drive down turn out with "True" Conservatives as well, so that's another thing he has going against him.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I believe a "normal" GOP candidate would have dont significantly better than Mitt Romney did among white working-class voters but not as well as President Trump did.

If said candidate took the establishment position on illegal immigration, I would expect a lot of these voters to sit 2016 out.

[here2view]

I think the majority of them would have voted Democrat. If there was a standard Republican running like Rubio, Bush, or Cruz I believe Clinton would have carried the 3 rust belt states. That's where most of these voters are concentrated after all. It'd be interesting if it'd be enough to win Florida though.