End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?

[twenty42]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

This comment is ridiculous. He won with terrible approval ratings because his opponent was only slightly less unpopular than him - and, crucially, Clinton was viewed as even less trustworthy than Trump. If the Democratic nominee in 2020 is even modestly popular, Trump is in big trouble.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

A lot of people didn't like Trump's behavior but thought he at least cared about them more than Hillary.

[twenty42]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

This comment is ridiculous. He won with terrible approval ratings because his opponent was only slightly less unpopular than him - and, crucially, Clinton was viewed as even less trustworthy than Trump. If the Democratic nominee in 2020 is even modestly popular, Trump is in big trouble.

And where is the evidence that Dems have a “modestly popular” candidate to nominate in 2020? And doesn’t it concern you that the two front-runners for the nomination will be close to 80 on Election Day?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

This comment is ridiculous. He won with terrible approval ratings because his opponent was only slightly less unpopular than him - and, crucially, Clinton was viewed as even less trustworthy than Trump. If the Democratic nominee in 2020 is even modestly popular, Trump is in big trouble.

And where is the evidence that Dems have a “modestly popular” candidate to nominate in 2020? And doesn’t it concern you that the two front-runners for the nomination will be close to 80 on Election Day?

Idk if dems will nominate him, but Sherrod Brown would be a fairly strong choice. Gillibrand would be decent, although she's getting a lot of heat right now. Kamala idk - she's only been in the senate for less than a year.

Bullock would be good, but I think he has a very small chance of getting nominated.

Agree that Biden and Bernie aren't the candidates for 2020 lol.

[Mr. Smith]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

This comment is ridiculous. He won with terrible approval ratings because his opponent was only slightly less unpopular than him - and, crucially, Clinton was viewed as even less trustworthy than Trump. If the Democratic nominee in 2020 is even modestly popular, Trump is in big trouble.

And where is the evidence that Dems have a “modestly popular” candidate to nominate in 2020? And doesn’t it concern you that the two front-runners for the nomination will be close to 80 on Election Day?

Where was the "modestly popular" Republican in 2016 this early on? Not Romney, he lost. Not Cruz, he was in hot-water for that shutdown. Peter King? Puleeze....hmmm I guess there was Chris Christie...then Bridgeghazi happened.

Certainly not many actually expected Trump, let alone exactly where he'd tap into [though it'd have been foolhardy not to see someone take advantage of that area, but Trump being that person...]

[Pericles]

The real question is whether he's even favored to remain President by 2020. He has committed very serious crimes on Russia&obstruction(basically certain unless investigation is rigged), the question is whether Trump is a karma houdini.

[andrew_c]

I wouldn't write off Trump as DOA, but he is more likely than not to lose re-election (assuming he does not get impeached).

[President Johnson]

Right now, he's favored to lose reelection by a fair margin. However, I wouldn't rule out a 2004 redux.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump is politically astute, there’s no question about it.  He still managed to win the presidential election in 2016 even after all that nasty stuff.  The man clearly has skill, and it’s terrifying.

It doesn’t matter if Trump is stupid.  He knows how to mesmerize his followers and keep them as sheep, and assuming Trump is the nominee, he’s pretty much guaranteed well above 40% of the PV.

Democrats need to get their act together and work very effectively to win what will very likely be a close race.  For one thing, I hope Democrats don’t let any bitter primary feelings get in the way of standing firm and united behind their nominee, whether it’s Bernie or Kamala.  Even when Republicans didn’t seem united behind Trump last time, apparently they were united enough for Trump to win.  Democrats should take note.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-how-trump-speaks/article/2595934

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The above is what Democrats don't get.

Trump is also one who, according to the article, dreads the thought of boring his audience.  Just imagine if Hillary had the same concern.

[NHI]

At this point, he's favored to lose decisively, but I don't know what's going to happen between now and 2020.

[here2view]

I'd say right now he has about a 40% chance of being re-elected. However a lot can change between now and 2020. One thing I don't see is, if the Democrats win in 2020, a electoral college blowout. I don't believe Trump will lose Ohio or Florida. With that considered I still see the Democratic candidate getting between ~280 to ~300.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here is something everybody seems to forget...Trump had a 38.7% approval rating on Election Day, and he won 306 EV’s. Obviously his EC spread was extremely efficient, but he still outperformed his approval rating by 7.4% in the PV.

I think this is where the left (and a lot of the right) totally underestimates Trump. He has an uncanny ability to earn the votes of people who don’t like him personally. He isn’t a typical presidential candidate inasmuch as needing a ~50% approval rating to win an election. There are a whole lot of voters, especially in the Rust Belt, who have no compunction about voting for Trump even though they think he is an a$$hole.

If I were a Democrat, I’d be very concerned if Trump’s approval rating is anywhere above 40% come 2020. And if it is hovering around 50% like a previous poster predicted it could be, I’d brace for a 1988/2008 style victory.

That had far more to do with his opponent than him.

[Burke859]

The one thing that I would note is that Trump's electoral coalition is apportioned throughout the nation in just the right way for him to win re-election while still getting only a popular vote total in the mid-40s.  That's pretty powerful, since George W. Bush almost lost in 2004 (Ohio would have flipped the whole election) while winning 51 percent of the popular vote that year.

Trump traded voters in the traditional Republican South and West for voters in the Rust Belt, and the consequence is that he can win Texas and Ohio both by 10 instead of winning Texas by 20 and Ohio by 1, which means that Ohio needs less attention and everything can be poured into Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida.

If Trump can get his Gallup approval to 45% on Election Day, I think he holds on.  Democrats are also in a bit of a pickle as they have to decide whether to try to flip North Carolina and Florida blue, or focus on winning back the Midwest, which are two different strategies really.  There's always the chance for a blowout where Trump just craters everywhere, but he's already back up to 40 in Gallup now that the tax bill is done, and if Democrats take Congress in 2018, he will likely move to the center and try to ride the good economy to a victory in 2020.

[Keep cool-idge]

Yes trump will probably win re-election barring muller comfiring that trump and Russians were colluding. Or a economic disaster like 2008 or the Great Depression.

[SJ84]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

[Keep cool-idge]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

I agree with all of it but the approval rating part because trump won with 38-40% approval rating already.

[SJ84]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

I agree with all of it but the approval rating part because trump won with 38-40% approval rating already.

Yes but if the democrat candidate is more popular (I'm taking 45% or higher approval rating), Trump being below 40% is bad news for him. 

[Keep cool-idge]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

I agree with all of it but the approval rating part because trump won with 38-40% approval rating already.

Yes but if the democrat candidate is more popular (I'm taking 45% or higher approval rating), Trump being below 40% is bad news for him. 

True see I also think that Biden is strongest most likely candidate to beat trump. He can easily win back back the rust belt that will give him the presidency it’s that simple.

[SJ84]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

I agree with all of it but the approval rating part because trump won with 38-40% approval rating already.

Yes but if the democrat candidate is more popular (I'm taking 45% or higher approval rating), Trump being below 40% is bad news for him. 

True see I also think that Biden is strongest most likely candidate to beat trump. He can easily win back back the rust belt that will give him the presidency it’s that simple.

I believe Biden's time to shine was 1992 if he ran and won the nomination instead of Bill Clinton. While Biden would be an effective campaigner against Trump, Biden could be seen as part of the past and not the future. In the end, I'm thinking someone younger with a great message could be more effective against Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democrats retaking Congress sure didn't help the Republicans in 2008.

[Cold War Liberal]

At this point, he's favored to lose decisively, but I don't know what's going to happen between now and 2020.

[IceSpear]

A lot of scorching hot takes in this thread, lol.

The real answer: It's way too early to tell. 4 years ago nobody thought Trump would even run, he had like a 20-80 favorability rating, Hillary was crushing all Republicans in the polls by double digits, etc. etc.

[Mr. Smith]

A lot of scorching hot takes in this thread, lol.

The real answer: It's way too early to tell. 4 years ago nobody thought Trump would even run, he had like a 20-80 favorability rating, Hillary was crushing all Republicans in the polls by double digits, etc. etc.

Technically yes, but by default that usually means the incumbent has the floor.

[Nichlemn]

PredictIt has Trump 34% likely to win against a 55% chance of being nominated. So on the one hand, it has him a clear underdog to win, but conditional upon being nominated he has about a 60% chance of winning (roughly in line with a regular incumbent). Though being nominated suggests that nothing damning probably out of the Mueller investigation, and Trump wasn't so unpopular that he gave up or lost in the primary.