Forward? – A 2012 Election Game (Gameplay Thread)

[Lumine]

Forward?
A 2012 Election Game

RCP Average:
President Obama's Approval Rating:

Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 52%
Undecided: 7%

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%
Undecided: 6%

President Obama marches into September 2011 with low approval ratings, having bounced somewhat from his lowest score in June 2011 but still far behind the numbers that could guarantee his survival to the upcoming primary and his own reelection as President. Still, some hope can be found in the White House on account of the Republican field proving divisive among the electorate, to the point in which a substantial group of voters who disapprove of the President's performance would likely still vote for him when opposed to most of the Republican field, a key factor in retaining the competitiveness of President Obama.

[Lumine]

Turn One: At the Firing Line:

September 1st to September 30th, 2011

In the News!

Protesters march on Wall Street, "Occupy Wall Street is born"

Thousands protests inequality, unemployment and bailouts, Zuccotti Park occupied by activists

An end to "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

US Military allows gay and lesbian personnel to declare sexual orientation

Fears of Recession as Dow Jones falls

A sustained decrease in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has economists increasingly worried

War in Libya grows more violent, NATO reacts:

As the death toll rises, Sarkozy and Cameron pledge support to provisional leaders

Turner defeats Weprin in House seat:

Republicans stun White House after capturing Weiner's seat with 54% in special election

1.- Turn: This turn lasts across the whole month of September. As such, it's not meant for players to post an exhaustive schedule of every day (you can do so if you like though), but a turn focused on spin, messaging and the general strategy of each of your candidates. Messaging and the debate performance will matter greatly due to the volatile primary electorate, allowing candidates to rise and falls during the three monthly turns before polling stabilizes a bit in December.

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Mitt Romney: 21%
Sarah Palin: 19%
Chris Christie: 13%
Donald Trump: 12%
Ron Paul: 9%
Bobby Jindal: 8%
Saxby Chambliss: 3%
Walter Jones: 2%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 9%

Republicans: Mr. Fix-It and the Barracuda:

Amidst great expectation of a large primary fields, it was a shock to many observers to see many potential candidates decline to run for President for various reasons (ranging from familiar to a percieved lack of funds), allowing some of the predicted candidates to stand aside several darkhorses or far less expected candidates for the GOP Primaries. The leader-tier, so to speak, is currently comprised by frontrunners Mitt Romney, establishment darling, and Sarah Palin, known as the "Tea Party Queen" to some. Both represent starkly different wings of the GOP, both with their own staunch supporters and a set of weaknesses and strenghts that makes for a very competitive fight between both.

The mid-tier of competitive candidates is then followed by four strong choices in Governors Chris Christie  and Bobby Jindal, Representative Ron Paul and of course, the bombastic entrepeneur Donald Trump. Whereas Christie and Jindal offer different faces of conservatism and different styles of leadership, Ron Paul is buyoed by his small but dedicated group of followings, giving "Dr. Paul" a strong following in the internet and across the libertarian wing of the GOP. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, entered the campaign on a shocking opening speech which many branded as racist towards Mexican-Americans. Despite the fury caused by his statements Trump rose high for a moment, before stabilizing close to 12% amidst media attacks.

Rounding up the field in the "dark-horse" category are the remaining four candidates, all of which have managed to keep themselves on the public eye by polling at least 1% of more. The more notable of those is Senator Saxby Chambliss, originally thought to be a mid-tier candidate before crippling his candidacy almost at the start after highly questionable comments were made towards Governor Jindal. While Mr. Trump's far more offensive comments have prevented Chambliss from entirely sinking, his campaign starts September at a low. Congressmen Jones and Upton despite showing potential have not been able to garner much interest of attention, and so depend on good public performances to raise their profile. Finally, radio personality and comedian Adam Carolla has fought a spirited campaign despite starting with poor name recognition, boosting himself to 2% by early September.

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Barack Obama: 51%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Russ Feingold: 7%
Phil Bredesen: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Democrats: 2008 Mk2: Electric Boogaloo

The Democratic primary challenges to President Obama have been in full-swing for the past few weeks as Hilary Clinton, Russ Feingold and Phil Bredesen have all challenged what they see as a weakened incumbent from different wings of the party: Feingold from the more progressive Democrats, Bredesen claiming the return of the Blue Dogs (and striking a populist tone) and Hillary Clinton reviving her broad coalition of allies and supporters from 2008, emphasizing the economic fears in a tone which was both well recieved and resembling of her more successful lines against Obama around the time of the Ohio and Texas primaries back in the last Democratic primary.

While a challenge to any incumbent has always been a tough proposition, all three candidates have found their own successful place in the polls. Secretary Clinton enters September with 30% of the primary electorate behind her and within shot of inflicting serious harm to the President, whereas Feingold and Bredesen's respectable 7 and 6% are thought to be decent points for a more successful performance (private polling from the DNC appears to suggest both Bredesen and Feingold stand a shot a winning primaries should they expand their support). The President, on the other hand, struck a hopeful tone at the start of his re-election campaign, retaining a clear lead and taking advantage of the percieved divisiveness of Clinton. On the other hand, the economic downturn of the past weeks has weakened the President's standing, leading pundits to stress the White House would do well to take the pretenders seriously.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

IOWA:

Mitt Romney: 19%
Sarah Palin: 19%
Donald Trump: 16%
Chris Christie: 12%
Ron Paul: 12%
Bobby Jindal: 9%
Saxby Chambliss: 2%
Walter Jones: 1%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 7%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Mitt Romney: 27%
Chris Christie: 19%
Donald Trump: 16%
Ron Paul: 13%
Sarah Palin: 6%
Bobby Jindal: 5%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Walter Jones: 2%
Saxby Chambliss: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 7%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Sarah Palin: 20%
Mitt Romney: 20%
Bobby Jindal: 16%
Saxby Chambliss: 9%
Chris Christie: 8%
Donald Trump: 7%
Walter Jones: 6%
Ron Paul: 4%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 8%

FLORIDA:

Mitt Romney: 24%
Sarah Palin: 18%
Chris Christie: 13%
Bobby Jindal: 12%
Donald Trump: 9%
Saxby Chambliss: 5%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Ron Paul: 3%
Walter Jones: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 11%

NEVADA:

Mitt Romney: 27%
Sarah Palin: 16%
Donald Trump: 15%
Ron Paul: 8%
Chris Christie: 7%
Bobby Jindal: 4%
Walter Jones: 4%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Saxby Chambliss: 2%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 12%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

IOWA:

Barack Obama: 46%
Hillary Clinton: 27%
Russ Feingold: 15%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Undecided: 8%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Barack Obama: 47%
Hillary Clinton: 35%
Russ Feingold: 8%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 7%

NEVADA:

Barack Obama: 54%
Hillary Clinton: 32%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Russ Feingold: 3%
Undecided: 8%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Barack Obama: 61%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
Phil Bredesen: 13%
Russ Feingold: 2%
Undecided: 7%

FLORIDA:

Barack Obama: 46%
Hillary Clinton: 37%
Phil Bredesen: 7%
Russ Feingold: 3%
Undecided: 7%

[Lumine]

1st Democratic Presidential Debate:

Note: All Democratic candidates are invited to attend. Due to the advantanges of incumbency President Obama will not take an automatic hit if he refuses to debate. You have a right to reply to other candidates, but don't make it a ten post argument. Finally, you can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

1st Republican Presidential Debate:

Note: All Republican candidates are invited to attend, and you can of course reply to other candidates briefly. Since there are a lot of GOP candidates, the general questions are only two. You can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

Gen. Clark announces surprise run:

Is America ready for a third party candidate?

September 1st, 2011:

When media outlets recieved the unexpected news that retired General Wesley Clark was going to make a surprise announcement on Little Rock, Arkansas, most reporters rushed to conclusions. Sensing the President's weakeness, so went the semi-official line, General Clark would jump as the fifth candidate in the Democratic field, possibly correcting the mistakes of 2004 to lead a potentially interesting (if potentially blocked by the Clinton challenge) campaign for the nomination of the party he had embraced for the past eight years.

It was therefore an utter shock when General Clark, after blasting President Obama (after being a key ally of his in 2008) and dismissing the GOP field announced his intentions to run for the White House as an independent, asking Americans whether the Democrats or the GOP were indeed a suitable choice and offering the voters the chance to "Try something new". The announcement, beyond shocking the Democratic National Committee and spurring dismay from the White House seems to have shifted the political balance to an interesting degree within hours of his announcement.

Indeed, while many voters remember Clark as an ultimately unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and a potential top-tier challenge in 2008, it seems little to no thought was ever given to the possibility of the General running as anything else than a Democrat. When the subject of a third-party candidate was raised, most speculation this year has focused on GOP candidates Ron Paul and Donald Trump, as well as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. For the time being, a flash poll for the New York Times showed this potential result:

New York Times, Flash Poll:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 48%
Barack Obama: 43%
Wesley Clark: 4%
Undecided: 5%

While an interesting degree of disaffected independents and moderate Republicans would pose a significant part of Clark's potential support, more than half of it would come from the Democrats themselves, opening the polling lead for "Generic Republican" to five points ahead of the President. It remains to be seen whether this run for the Presidency will endure and overcome the psychological barrier that affects third party candidates.

[Lumine]

Turn Two: It's a mad, mad world:

October 1st to October 31st, 2011

In the News!

Occupy Wall Street on the rise, goes nation-wide

Dozens of Occupy inspired protests across America, authorities losing control over Zuccotti Park

Muammar Gaddafi killed in Sirte!

Libyan Dictator gruesomely executed, Libyan insurgency claims victory

Economy doesn't show improvement, Greece close to default

Dow Jones continues to lower, Europe tries to avoid a Greek debt default

Boustany elected Louisiana Governor in GOP Landslide:

Rep. Charles Boustany smashes competition with 56%, no run-off necessary

Steve Job dies

Famous Apple business magnate and inventor dies at age 56

1.- Turn: This turn lasts across the whole month of October. Same rules apply to the past one.

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Mitt Romney: 24%
Chris Christie: 18%
Sarah Palin: 14%
Bobby Jindal: 12%
Ron Paul: 10%
Donald Trump: 7%
Adam Carolla: 5%
Walter Jones: 3%
Saxby Chambliss: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 6%

Republicans: Christie and Jindal, challengers on the rise:

At the end of September it seemed a pattern had finally made its appearance on the GOP Primaries. Fully expecting the outspoken Tea Party challengers Trump and Palin to make Romney’s life impossible, pundits were stunned when both campaigns pulled out of the debates for unknown reasons and stayed away from the campaign trail. In the middle of increasing speculation on the seriousness of the Palin and Trump bids and with the more conservative wing of the GOP in an increasing panic, a significant polling shift took place across October, reinforcing a particular thread and creating new ones. The main element to remain was the consolidation of Mitt Romney as the GOP frontrunner as Palin began to implode, pulling leads on all five early primary states and running what was seen to be a well-oiled, tight-run ship that allowed him to capitalize.

However, such numbers also hid the fact Romney continued to have a low ceiling in the primary on account of the distrust conservatives had for him, reinforced by his latest speech on immigration. They needed someone to look to as an alternative in case Trump and Palin bolted before Iowa, and they found acceptable substitutes in Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie. Christie taking advantage of his blunt “no-nonsense” style and Jindal using his ties to different groups inside the GOP, both men showed credibility on the debate stage and well-coordinated campaign efforts that allowed for their substantial rise in the polls. Even if Tea Party conservatives have their reasons to have a certain distrust towards both Governors, they rapidly seized the moment to allow Christie to become a serious threat to Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and for Jindal to establish a very strong presence in South Carolina. Both men have a credible shot at becoming the “anti-Romney”, but some conservatives begin to wonder whether a Tea Party “white horse” may emerge to the rescue.

It was also a productive month by the so called “liberarian wing” of the GOP, which represented by three different candidates expanded their support on the polls partly due to disaffected conservatives. While Ron Paul’s prestige assures him the leading spot still and a strong position, Congressman Walter Jones has begun to be noticed, and radio talk show host Adam Carolla has made quite an impact as his bid for the presidency slowly becomes credible, mostly restrained by the libertarian views that make it hard for many conservatives to support him. On the downside are Senator Chambliss, whose credibility, polling and financial backing evaporated on the back of “Chickengate”, and Congressman Upton, who managed to become something of a standard-bearer for the ultra-moderate remnants in the GOP while tanking for most of the party after the debate and his praise for Obamacare.

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Barack Obama: 47%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Russ Feingold: 9%
Phil Bredesen: 8%
Undecided: 3%

Democrats: All knives against the President

Amidst much speculation the Democratic Primary have heated up in a significant way as the primary season approaches fast, and President Obama appears to have a target on his back. Far from treating the White House with defence Senators Clinton and Feingold have harshly attacked the President on his record and profited from such attacks for the most part, whereas Governor Bredesen spared no possible line of attack. Launching a relentless wave of attacks on the President, Bredesen felt bold enough to call the President a “liar” and make several controversial comments on matters such as the President’s “diversity” on religion. Attending the debate but declining to enter the field to campaign, the President remains on a strong position, but he has lost significant ground to his contenders.

Of his two less powerful challengers, Senator Feingold has made successful moves to appeal to progressives and has begun to mount a credible challenge in Iowa, even if the more conservative wing of the party (and particularly the Democratic South) views him with disdain. Part of this is because of the Senator’s approach to the Occupy protestors, many (but not all) of whom embraced him in scenes resembling 1968 while Senator Clinton was openly insulted by those present when attempting to approach them. Governor Bredesen has raised anger and disdain not only from the party establishment, but from many voters as well who have called him a Republican-lite after his suggestion that Obamacare should be repealed. While, ironically, he rises in the polls on account of what is believed to be a shocking surge across Appalachia and the conservative states that distrust the President, Bredesen has also tanked on several other areas of the country.

Senator Clinton, on the other hand, has had to live with the rebuke of Occupy Wall Street and the particularly harsh comment by the President on what a Clinton President would be, but has surpassed those issued with a well-run campaign and selective efforts on what appear to be her strongest states. While Clinton has lost conservative Democratic support to Bredesen, she has won far more voters than lost via undecideds or voters supporting the President out of duty, but who may now see the Senator as a credible challenger. While President Obama continues to sit safe in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina, Senator Clinton is starting to put up a very serious fight in both New Hampshire and Florida, average polling placing her within six to five points of the President.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

IOWA:

Mitt Romney: 23%
Chris Christie: 16%
Sarah Palin: 14%
Ron Paul: 13%
Bobby Jindal: 12%
Donald Trump: 11%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Walter Jones: 2%
Saxby Chambliss: 1%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 5%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Mitt Romney: 29%
Chris Christie: 23%
Ron Paul: 14%
Donald Trump: 9%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Bobby Jindal: 6%
Sarah Palin: 3%
Fred Upton: 2%
Walter Jones: 2%
Saxby Chambliss: 0%
Undecided: 6%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Mitt Romney: 26%
Bobby Jindal: 22%
Sarah Palin: 13%
Chris Christie: 10%
Walter Jones: 9%
Donald Trump: 4%
Ron Paul: 3%
Saxby Chambliss: 3%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

FLORIDA:

Mitt Romney: 27%
Bobby Jindal: 17%
Chris Christie: 16%
Sarah Palin: 11%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Ron Paul: 5%
Donald Trump: 5%
Walter Jones: 2%
Saxby Chambliss: 1%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 9%

NEVADA:

Mitt Romney: 32%
Ron Paul: 10%
Chris Christie: 10%
Sarah Palin: 10%
Donald Trump: 9%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Bobby Jindal: 7%
Walter Jones: 5%
Saxby Chambliss: 0%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 10%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

IOWA:

Barack Obama: 45%
Hillary Clinton: 28%
Russ Feingold: 18%
Phil Bredesen: 2%
Undecided: 9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Barack Obama: 45%
Hillary Clinton: 39%
Russ Feingold: 9%
Phil Bredesen: 1%
Undecided: 6%

NEVADA:

Barack Obama: 51%
Hillary Clinton: 34%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Russ Feingold: 4%
Undecided: 7%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Barack Obama: 59%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Phil Bredesen: 15%
Russ Feingold: 2%
Undecided: 6%

FLORIDA:

Barack Obama: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 39%
Phil Bredesen: 6%
Russ Feingold: 3%
Undecided: 7%

[Lumine]

Debate Winners:

GOP:

The latest GOP debate was certainly not a dull affair, even with the absence of Donald Trump and Sarah Palin (which is believed to have cost some rating to the debate). Overall pundits agreed that the debate winners ought to be Mitt Romney and Chris Christie, as both showed consistent skill in answering questions and defending their percieved weaknesses, while still landing some successful jabs at their oponents. On a close third was Governor Jindal, seen as very effective on health care, followed by Mr. Carolla (who could have scored higher were it not for some blows from Romney and Upton). With Representatives Paul and Jones believed to have had strong but not quite memorable performances, it was believed Representative Upton and Senator Chambliss were the most damaged, Upton sustaining a harsh barrage of criticism on Obamacare and Chambliss facing ridicule over "Chickengate".

DEM:

In a debate which showed the willingness of challengers to knife President Obama on live TV if necessary, there was general agreement in the aftermath (backed by polls) that Hillary Clinton had won the first Democratic debate, allowing her to seize the moment in later days. While certainly damaged by the President's harsh assessment of her, Senator Clinton rebounded by strong responses and strong criticism of the President. Second place was given to Senator Feingold, who while not having a dramatic moment was nonetheless seen as solid and as successfully appealing to his progressive base, not suffering truly damaging attacks. President Obama was thought to have placed third, not necessarily on account of his performance (which also was seen as solid) but because of the damaging barrage against him. Last place was considered as belonging to Governor Breseden, who during the debate took a series of stances percieved to be far too conservative for the party, along with a series of questionable comments on issues such as Libya.

[Lumine]

2nd Democratic Presidential Debate:

Note: All Democratic candidates are invited to attend. Due to the advantanges of incumbency President Obama will not take an automatic hit if he refuses to debate. You have a right to reply to other candidates, but don't make it a ten post argument. Finally, you can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

2nd Republican Presidential Debate:

Note: All Republican candidates are invited to attend, and you can of course reply to other candidates briefly. You can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn One:

Christie: Jon Huntsman, John Kasich.
Romney: Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte.
Carolla: Reason Magazine, Joe Rogan.
Paul: Rand Paul, Justin Amash.
Jones: Virgil Goode, Jimmy Duncan.
Jindal: Steve Scalise, Lindsey Graham.

Obama: John Kerry, Dick Durbin.
Clinton: Jeanne Shaheen, Bill Nelson.
Bredesen: Mike Ross, Brad Ellsworth.

[Lumine]

Friendly reminder, the last debate intervention is not considered as part of the game. There will be an article on Senator Chambliss dropping out once the new possible GOP candidates confirm that they will (or not) be running and post their announcements.

(Also, no commentary on this matter here, that belongs on the Sign Up thread)

[Lumine]

In the News:

Chambliss out, Fletcher enters the GOP Primary:

Maloney narrowly defeats Tomblin in West Virginia:

The GOP field has begun to shift as October begins, with the first candidate to drop out doin so and a new (and unlikely challenger) stepping into the field. Senator Saxby Chambliss had shown some promises as a potential candidate, yet his campaign soon became unraveled by attempts to bring "Birtherism" as a political tool against fellow candidate Bobby Jindal. With such tactics backfiring (and arguably boosting Jindal as well), polling at 1% and devoid of financial support, Senator Chambliss ended his campaign today, the first casualty in a crowded field.

Amidst speculation that former Speaker Newt Gingrich and other heavyweights in the GOP may be considering a late run to prevent a Romney victory in the primaries, a figure not on the radar of the pundits showed up: the conservative Republican and former Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher made a surprise announce in Ohio that he was entering the GOP Primary, his first major political announcement after his landslide defeat against Steve Beshear in 2007. Unknown to many in the electore, flash polling shows Governor Fletcher at no more than 1% in the national polls, but slightly higher in Iowa and South Carolina. His introduction to the national audience will likely take place in the upcoming GOP debate, a critical moment for his surprise candidacy.

Bad news for the Democratic Party came from Appalachia this week, as after a very heated and competitive race for the Governorship in West Virginia following Joe Manchin's election to the Senate resulted in a narrow victory for Republican businessman Bill Maloney over Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin. Maloney, a Tea Party conservative who defeated an establishment candidate in an upset at the GOP Primary, claimed his victory was the signal that the Tea Party was on the rise in the United States, and that the Republican Party could only win by nominating a suitably conservative candidate. West Virginia also saw significant agitation in the past days due to the latest campaign appearances by independent candidate Gen. Wesley Clark, whose long-shot bid for the White House is beginning to take form.

Indeed, the latest polling average by Real Clear Politics shows the following national numbers:

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 48%
Barack Obama: 42%
Wesley Clark: 5%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

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[Lumine]

Turn Three: On Target:

November 1st to November 30th, 2011

In the News!

Is Iran building nuclear weapons?

UN report voices concern over Iranian nuclear program

Zuccotti Park protesters removed, hundreds arrested

NYPD successfully removes Occupy Wall Street after heated struggle, many injured

British Embassy in Iran assaulted!

Following British sanctions against Iran protestors storm embassy, dozens injured

Supreme Court: Obamacare ruling in 2012

Supreme Court to make its ruling on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act next year

Beshear (D) holds Kentucky, Bryant (R) holds Mississippi:

Governor elections see the GOP hold Mississippi, Gov. Beshear narrowly wins re-election in Kentucky

1.- Turn: This turn lasts across the whole month of November. Same rules apply to the past one.

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Mitt Romney: 22%
Chris Christie: 17%
Bobby Jindal: 15%
Ron Paul: 11%
Sarah Palin: 7%
Walter Jones: 7%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Ernie Fletcher: 5%
Donald Trump: 5%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 4%

Republicans: Romney hit hard by attacks, momentum for Jindal and Jones?

Having cemented his status as a frontrunner with the Palin campaign in continued free fall (to the point in which many doubt the former Alaska Governor will make it to Iowa), Mitt Romney found out the hard way what it means to be a frontrunner. Put into question over his abortion views at a debate in which he sustained continued attacks, Romney was also targeted continously by Jones, Carolla,  Fletcher and particularly by Chris Christie, whose combined fire rouse the suspicions of Tea Party and conservative voters over Romney's supposed reliability as a nominee. And while Romney himself is noted for giving efficient media appearances and for running a somewhat tight ship, the barrage pushed him back into vulnerable margins, creating an urgent risk in Iowa and seeing Bobby Jindal overtake him on South Carolina polling.

To many, this would have been the perfect opportunity for Chrstie to close the gap and take up the frontrunner mantle. Alas, despite a well-run campaign Christie also faced his own share of merciless attacks and sustained damage by the Romney campaign, leading some conservatives to start questioning whether Christie is truly their man. The losses of Romney, Palin and Christie were promtly seized by other candidates who avoid most attacks by being low on the radar, thus allowing them to surge: Bobby Jindal has been the most prominent of them, taking the lead in South Carolina and making himself attractive to conservatives as a very viable option. Remarkable gains have also been made by Congressman Jones, whose effective performance at the debate and populist touch saw him surge as an increasingly credible candidate, and by Governor Fletcher, who despite a late start has seemingly found a niche as the candidate of social conservatives.

Others have also found their own room to grow, such as Adam Carolla and Ron Paul, putting on strong performances on early states that makes it hard to count them out of the race. Even Congressman Upton, harshly condemned over his latest debate performances, has found some receptive (if small) ground among independents in New Hampshire. The collective effect of his has been read by pundits as signifying that the GOP electorate is simply not convinced yet, and thus prone to sudden changes of support that may only be getting more extreme as the primaries approach. And whilst many insist Mitt Romney is the "inevitable nominee", others are not so sure.

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Barack Obama: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 36%
Russ Feingold: 11%
Phil Bredesen: 10%
Undecided: 3%

Democrats: White House down

Having already lost significant ground over the past weeks, the situation at the White House was becoming worse everyday. A general lack of campaigning over October was seen as a bad idea at a time in which Clinton, Feingold and Bredesen were gaining exposure in the media, particularly as the credibility of the primary challengers against the President grew in perception. Without a response against the constant attacks of his challengers, the President's polling numbers took a large hit as Barack Obama receded back to 40%, making him not only vulnerable, but behind Clinton for the first time in the crucial primary battlegrounds of New Hampshire and Florida.

On the opposing side, Governor Bredesen and Senator Feingold made gains of their own by appealing to their respective bases: Feingold continues to gain credibility among progressives due to his overtures to Occupy Wall Street and other statements, whereas Bredesen appears to have hit a vital point regarding fossil fuels in Appalachia (to the point in which a private poll from the White House is said to have the Governor in a strong second place in West Virginia). Clinton, on the other hand, continues to be seen as solid even as she faces strong attacks from Bredesen on issues such as her political ambition. Always the more powerful of the challengers, she hits 36% and is only 4 points behind the President, leading potential Superdelegates to start considering their loyalities.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

IOWA:

Mitt Romney: 20%
Ron Paul: 16%
Chris Christie: 15%
Bobby Jindal: 15%
Sarah Palin: 7%
Donald Trump: 7%
Ernie Fletcher: 6%
Walter Jones: 5%
Adam Carolla: 5%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 4%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Mitt Romney: 27%
Chris Christie: 22%
Ron Paul: 15%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Donald Trump: 7%
Bobby Jindal: 7%
Fred Upton: 4%
Walter Jones: 4%
Sarah Palin: 1%
Ernie Fletcher: 1%
Undecided: 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Bobby Jindal: 25%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Walter Jones: 14%
Ernie Fletcher: 8%
Chris Christie: 8%
Sarah Palin: 6%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Ron Paul: 4%
Donald Trump: 3%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 5%

FLORIDA:

Mitt Romney: 24%
Bobby Jindal: 19%
Chris Christie: 15%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Ron Paul: 6%
Walter Jones: 6%
Sarah Palin: 6%
Ernie Fletcher: 4%
Donald Trump: 4%
Fred Upton: 1%
Undecided: 8%

NEVADA:

Mitt Romney: 33%
Ron Paul: 12%
Adam Carolla: 10%
Chris Christie: 9%
Bobby Jindal: 9%
Donald Trump: 7%
Walter Jones: 7%
Sarah Palin: 4%
Ernie Fletcher: 2%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 7%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

IOWA:

Barack Obama: 39%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Russ Feingold: 20%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 8%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 39%
Russ Feingold: 11%
Phil Bredesen: 2%
Undecided: 4%

NEVADA:

Barack Obama: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 38%
Phil Bredesen: 8%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Undecided: 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Barack Obama: 53%
Hillary Clinton: 22%
Phil Bredesen: 19%
Russ Feingold: 3%
Undecided: 3%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 40%
Phil Bredesen: 8%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Undecided: 4%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Two:

Christie: Susana Martinez, Haley Barbour.
Romney: Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller.
Carolla: Adam Sandler, Dana Rohrabacher.
Paul: Thomas Massie, Gary Johnson.
Jones: Chuck Hagel, Brent Scowcroft.
Jindal: Jim DeMint, Marco Rubio.
Upton: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski.

Feingold: Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown.
Clinton: Andrew Cuomo, Tom Menino.
Bredesen: Jason Altmire, Nick Lampson.

Clark: Blanche Lincoln, Stanley McChrystal.

[Lumine]

Debate Winners:

GOP:

If the first GOP debate was considered to be a confrontational one, the second doubled down on such a view. The human target during the entire debate was frontrunner Mitt Romney, constantly challenged over his views on issues such as abortion and attacked by several of his rivals. Romney, to his credit, defended himself skillfully, but was percieved to have been drowned out on account of the multiple punches and while successully damaging Christie enough to deny him a debate victory, was percieved to have been one of the losers - the major one being Congressman Upton, whose remarks earned him constant jeers from the audience - at the debate.

With Carolla and Christie left somewhat behind - Carolla giving a solid but not memorable performance and Christie damaged by attacks -, the top spot at the debate was fought between Paul (considered the likely fourth place), Jindal (who did well, but was seen as just third best) and a surprising tie between Congressman Walter Jones and Governor Ernie Fletcher, both considered longshots at the nomination. Benefiting from blows against Romney without having to suffer attacks of their own, combined to well recieved answers against the establishment (in Jones's case) and defending conservative values (in Fletcher's case), both men were percieved to have won the debate, helping their respective polling surges.

DEM:

With President Obama not attending most networks predicted low viewership, but to their surprise the 2nd Democratic debates featured strong numbers of audiences and some significant commentary in social media. All in all, the debate was considered to be a curious three way tie as all three challengers played to their respective bases, Bredesen and Clinton starting strong but failing to achieve total victory on account of the jabs they traded. It was agreed by pundits what hurt Clinton the most was Bredesen's comments on her ambition - although she was percieved to have a very strong moment when explaining her loss in 2008 -, whereas Bredesen was hurt by what many saw as poor preparation, given his strange apology over Libya and gaffes such as refering to "Senator Ron Paul".

[Lumine]

3rd Democratic Presidential Debate:

Note: All Democratic candidates are invited to attend. Due to the advantanges of incumbency President Obama will not take an automatic hit if he refuses to debate. You have a right to reply to other candidates, but don't make it a ten post argument. Finally, you can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

3rd Republican Presidential Debate:

Note: All Republican candidates are invited to attend, and you can of course reply to other candidates briefly. You can end your performance with a closing statement. Good luck!

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[Lumine]

In the News:

President Obama: "I shall not seek a second term."

The news of a major televised broadcast from the White House surprised many, and led to significant speculation as to what the announcement was. With the foreign situation growing more unpredictable after the past events in Libya and faced with a bruising primary campaign on his own party many wondered what announcement would Obama make, last minute theories ranging from an update on the search for Obama Bin Laden to a possible and updated White House strategy regarding Libya or Iraq. But as soon as President Obama began to speak, it was plain and evident that something historic was about to happen. While seemingly tired, the President was on a high note of eloquence on his address and with a more relaxed look on his face, calmly explaining what he saw as the achievements of his Presidency while recognizing some areas in which progress had not been as fast as desired.

President Obama finally cited the troubling economic and global situation and the rising infighting on his party, referencing some of the conspiracy theories issued by one of the Democratic candidates, and stressing that a divided party would never be able to "deliver on the change America elected us to deliver". His speech culminated with what many saw as a invocation of the famous LBJ speech in 1968, with Obama striking a calm tone while uttering the words "therefore, I shall not seek nor accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for another term as your President". Amidst the silence of the White House staff Obama finished his words by invoking the importance of his party to remain together and united in the months to come, and his intention to be fully active and free from partisan politics in the remainder of his term.

The address while shocking to the nation was well received by many, polling showing a rise in the President's numbers in the aftermath. While some of the more vocal elements in the right-wing talk shows wasted no time to imply a "corrupt bargain" had been struck by the President and Mrs. Clinton, or that Obama had left the race to prevent a scandal of sorts from erupting, it appeared most Americans seemed to accept some of the President's arguments, or at least felt the time was right for something different. In the immediate hours after the President's speech it became clear Senator Clinton had suddenly become the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, although speculation began on which Democrats might jump into the primaries at the last moment.

In the meantime, the first poll after the President's announcement showed "Generic Democrat" on the rise against Generic Republican, although it is unclear whether this is just a temporary bump:

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 46%
Generic Democrat: 43%
Wesley Clark: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Romney to drop out due to Ann Romney's ill health

The President's decision not to run for a second term was matched in a Republican field by a sudden change that also altered the dynamics in the most radical way: Governor Mitt Romney was leaving the race. A few days before Obama's announcement Ann Romney's health had suddenly begun to take a turn for the worse, her husband deciding to take a few days off the campaign trail to be with his wife. Despite Mrs. Romney's insistence that her husband ought to return to the campaign, the doctors were soon clear that Mrs. Romney's multiple sclerosis had worsened and would require some substantial treatment. While she and some members of the Governor's family and staff made attempts to persuade Romney that he had a duty to stay in the race, Romney saw differently.

While the official statement is expected to be delivered soon, a spokesman for the Romney campaign delivered a written statement that confirmed that Mitt Romney was no longer running for the Republican nomination, having made up his mind to stay with his wife in such troubled times. The announcement left the GOP stunned, having spent several months trying to come to terms with the idea of Romney as the "inevitable nominee", the race was left fully open less than two months from the Iowa caucuses. Many predicted in the aftermath that such events would possibly leave Governors Christie and Jindal as the likely new frontrunners for the nomination, but with such a volatile scenario it was agreed virtually everything could happen.

And, of course, some didn't discount the scenario of a "White Knight" attempting a late bid for the nomination.