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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states  (Read 638 times)
jaichind
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« on: January 03, 2018, 12:56:01 pm »
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I will start a India 2018 assembly elections thread soon now we are in 2018.

2018 assembly elections are

Meghalaya (Feb 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA (BJP plus NDA parties like pro-BJP NCP splinter
                                    NPP).  BJP-NPP will pose a real challenge to INC

Tripura (March 2018) - Left Front incumbent vs INC vs NDA (Left front has Bengali vote, Tribal vote
                                   unclear, as it could go INC or BJP+various tribal allies).  Left front will win
                                    with the tribal vote split between INC and BJP+

Nagaland (March 2018) - NPF incumbent (BJP ally) vs INC.  NPF+BJP most likely too strong for INC
                                     to overcome.

Karnataka (May 2018) - INC incumbent vs BJP vs JD(S).  Not clear if JD(S) will form tactical alliance
                                      with BJP or INC or truly go it alone.  INC would be lucky to emerge as the
                                       largest party

Mizoram (Dec 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA(BJP plus MNF and ZNP).  BJP+MNF+ZNP could pose a
                                    real challenge to INC which had been dominate in this state

Chhattisgarh(Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Chhattisgarh is INC's PA.  Close but no cigar in
                                      2003 2008 and 2013 with narrow losses to BJP.  This time INC should win
                                      but INC rebel Ajit Jogi JC will make it a 3 way fight could throw the
                                      election to BJP

Madhya Pradesh (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Second most pro-BJP state after Gujarat.   
                                            INC will make gains like 2017 Gujarat but most likely will not win.           

Rajasthan (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Rajasthan has been very elastic historically and
                                   even though INC was crushed in 2013 there is a better than even odds INC
                                     comes back to power in a narrow win over BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 01:30:54 pm »
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Bihar RJD Lalu Yadav who is out on bail from his conviction from the infamous Fodder Scam of the 1980s-1990s was  convicted for another count as part of the Fodder Scam and may end up in jail again soon.  Most likely this will not dent the RJD vote base since the RJD will make this a Forwards vs Backwards issue since Lalu Yadav's predecessor Upper Caste INC CM Jagannath Mishra was also charged as part of the Fodder Scam but was not convinced. 

What the RJD was focus on is making sure that in 2019 INC leads an anti-BJP national alliance where RJD-INC will fight as a bloc.  RJD's plan is then to rope in the Left Front as various JD(U) rebel parties (like HAM or RLSP as well as Shard Yadav's anti-BJP JD(U) faction.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2018, 08:20:12 am »
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First state up for elections is Karnataka which is the last large state ruled by INC.



Karnataka which used to be called Mysore was created from several states to created a Kannada speaking state




Politically Karnataka is the only Southern state where the BJP has a large presence.  It also, since 1977, has been the anti-bellwether where it mostly swings in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  

Karnataka has been called Caste-nataka.  Karnataka and UP are the two states where caste politics are the most dominate in political clivage.  

The caste breakdown which is not well known since any attempt to calculate this is politically explosive is roughly

Vokkaliga - 16% (is considered OBC)
Lingayats - 23%
Muslims - 15%
Kurubas - 8%  (is considered OBC)
Dalits - 15%
Tribals - 3%
Other OBC - 12%
Brahmins/Upper castes - 5%
Christian - 3%

Karnataka used to be dominated politically by the Upper Caste elites but since the 1970s has been dominated by the rivalries between the two mega-castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats.  In theory Lingayats is not a caste but really a sub-religion which is part of Shaivism but within  Karnataka they have become a de facto caste.

In coastal Karnataka where Muslims are more numerous it tends to be a Hindu vs Mulsim conflict.  In Northern Karnataka Lingayats tend to more numerous while in Southern Karnataka Vokkaliga tend to be more numerous.
« Last Edit: Today at 12:12:53 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2018, 06:59:09 pm »
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The evolution of the of Karnataka party system are

pre-1977        1 party domination system (INC) 
1977-1991      2 party system (INC vs JNP/JD)
1991-1999      3 party system (INC vs JD vs BJP)
1999-present  2.5 party system (INC vs BJP vs weaker JD(S))
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 07:34:12 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2018, 04:57:06 pm »
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Given that the South Asian commentariat seems to expect a saffron victory in Karnataka, would a larger-than-expected Congress victory in Karnataka, i.e. one that results in a net gain similar to the one seen by Congress in Gujarat last month, be enough for the pundit-sphere to declare that a "Congress comeback!" is in the works, or would that require, say, an actual Congress victory in the upcoming Rajasthan election later this year?

I probably care a tad too much political narration in a country that I've never even been to, but whatever.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2018, 05:11:39 pm »
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Given that the South Asian commentariat seems to expect a saffron victory in Karnataka, would a larger-than-expected Congress victory in Karnataka, i.e. one that results in a net gain similar to the one seen by Congress in Gujarat last month, be enough for the pundit-sphere to declare that a "Congress comeback!" is in the works, or would that require, say, an actual Congress victory in the upcoming Rajasthan election later this year?

I probably care a tad too much political narration in a country that I've never even been to, but whatever.

Karnataka tends to go in the opposite direction of India as a whole and Rajasthan tends to be very elastic.  So even if INC were to win in both it does not necessary mean a INC revival across India.  A defeat in both would indicate a BJP landslide in 2019.  A better signal of INC comeback would be MP which would be the second BJP state.  If INC were to be able to pretty much pull of a tie like Gujarat later this year then it would indicate that in 2019 the INC would be competitive although still at a disadvantage relative BJP. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2018, 05:21:53 pm »
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Karnataka/Mysore has been dominated by the INC since its creation as a one party state.  The INC leadership has been dominated by the landowning Upper caste which dominated local politics at the township and village level.  

After INC split at the national level in 1969 into INC and INC(O).  The CM of Karnataka at the time was Veerendra Patil which like his mentor and former CM of Karnataka Nijalingappa side with the anti-Indira Gandhi INC(O). 

 
After INC landslide victory in 1971 LS elections most of INC(O) went with INC in Karnataka and in the 1972 Assembly elections INC won in a landslide victory and Indira Gandhi appointed Devaraj Urs as the new CM.


Urs saw that with INC(O) split off and joining forces with the opposition the old politics dominated by the Upper Castes will not be enough to ensure INC domination.  He worked to activate two mega- castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats into the INC system.  In the meantime all the opposition parties (BJS (proto-BJP), SWA and various Socialists) merged with INC(O) to form JNP to take on the INC in the 1977 general elections.  The INC as soundly defeated in Northern India but in Karnataka INC beat back the JNP thanks to the broadening of the INC base by Urs.

Karnataka 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              26                 56.80%

INC rebels                      0                   1.08%

JNP             28               2                  39.89%

CPI               3               0                   0.40%
 
RPI               2               0                   0.33%  (Dalit based party)

With the defeat of INC in Northern India Karnataka and AP were the only states left that leaned INC after 1977 and these two states became to core of the Indira Gandhi/INC comeback.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2018, 05:27:40 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 07:37:16 pm »
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India Today TN poll has with Rajinikanth party has
 
                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      130           34%
AIADMK         68           26%
Rajinikanth     33           16%



If the vote shares are accurate I do not buy the seat distribution.  Rajinikanth's support tends to cut across regions and TN tends to have a fairly uniform swing.  Rajinikanth is unlikely to win more than 10 seats with just 16% of the vote and a DMK-INC vote share gap with AIADMK of 8% tend to indicate something like

                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      170           34%
AIADMK         50           26%
Rajinikanth     10           16%
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2018, 07:56:56 am »
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After the INC defeat in the 1977 LS election, INC which sent into opposition nationally but fully in control in Karnataka split into pro- and anti- Indira Gandhi factions.  The pro-Indira Gandhi faction created INC(I) with Karnataka CM Urs siding with Indira Gandhi and leader of INC(I) in Karnataka.  The 1978 Karnataka assembly election became a battle of not just INC vs JNP but which is the real INC.  With Urs mass base in Karnataka, INC(I) defeated Veerendra Patil led JNP and drove the anti-Indira Gandhi INC into a weak third place and showing that INC(I) is the "true" INC.

Karnataka 1978 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)+       224            155             46.21% (CPI and RPI were part of INC+)

INC(I) rebel                      3              1.16%

JNP+           224             60             38.38%

JNP rebel                         4               1.79%

INC             215              2                8.29%

CPM             10               0                0.50%

The INC(I) victory established INC(I) is THE INC and established Karnataka as the base for Indira Gandhi's national comeback.  As a result of this defeat Veerendra Patil  was eased aside as leader of JNP and Deve Gowda who is a mass Vokkaliga leader brought in as JNP leader.  Gowda was a member of INC and went with the anti-Indira GandhiINC(O) in 1969 when INC split.  He then went on to join JNP when INC(O) merged into JNP.


A crisis at the national level in mid 1979 led to a split of the national JNP into JNP and JNP(S) and trigged a LS election in early 1980.  By 1979 Urs's relationship with Indira Gandhi broke down due to Indira Gandhi was clearly pushing Sanjay Gandhi's position with INC(I).  As a result Urs split from INC(I) and joined up with the anti-Indira Gandhi's INC.  The resulting party was called INC(U).
 Most of INC(I) MLAs in Karnataka went over to INC(U) and Urs continued as CM.  Gundu Rao lead a bloc of INC(I) MLAs that stayed loyal to Indira Gandhi.

In the meantime Veerendra Patil who felt sidelined by Gowda taking over JNP in Karnataka defected to INC(I).  INC(U) and JNP(S) formed an alliance at the national level but failed to do so in Karnataka.  At the national level INC(I) came back to power winning back Northern India.  In Karnataka INC(U) was expected to sweep the polls given Urs mass base but in the end the Indira Gandhi wave swept INC(I) to victory as well with the anti-Indira Gandhi vote split between INC(U) JNP and JNP(S).

Karnataka 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)        28               27                 56.25%

JNP            28                1                  22.93%

INC(U)+     28                0                  16.94%  (CPI was part of INC(U)+)

JNP(S)       12                0                   1.22%

CPM            1                0                   0.22%

1980 was a restoration election for Indira Gandhi whose INC(I) became officially THE INC.   After the LS election INC(U) MLAs in Karnataka all defected to INC(I) (now just INC) and Urs resigned as CM paving way for INC's Gundu Rao to take over a CM.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 08:18:23 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2018, 06:37:29 pm »
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(Bloomberg) --
India to hold assembly elections for Tripura on Feb. 18, Chief Election Commissioner A. K. Joti said at a press conference in New Delhi.

Elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland to take place on Feb. 27
Counting of ballots in all three states to be held on March 3
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2018, 09:54:22 pm »
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After the 1980 elections where Indira Gandhi's INC is fully back in control at the center as well as Karnataka things began to go wrong for INC.  The main problem is CM Gundu Rao main claim to fame is that he is close to Indira Gandhi's son Sanjay Gandhi who die in a plane accident right after the 1980 elections.  Gundu Rao lacked a mass base and trying to replicate what Urs did by mobilizing the Vokkaliga and Lingayats, he tried to mobilize the lower castes as his mass base.  This generated resentment from both the Vokkaliga and Lingayats which represented crisis for INC and opportunity for the opposition.

On the opposition side INC(U) fell apart while on the JNP side, the original BJS faction of JNP split back out as BJP but lacked a real base in Karnataka.  As the 1983 assembly election approached two key players emerged to play a big role in this election as well as Karnataka politics over the next two decades. 

Ramakrishna Hegde who was with INC and then joined INC(O) and along with it became a key leader of JNP was a Brahmin but was very close to Lingayats. 


Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was a champion of backward castes started in the PSP before defecting to INC becoming a sidekick of Urs following him into INC(I), INC(U) and then back to INC.  He had hoped to supplant Gundu Rao as CM but not given a chance by INC high command, broke with INC, formed KKR with his new rebel party running on the JNP symbol.


The 1983 JNP effort was a joint effort of Deve Gowda who represented the Vokkaliga, Ramakrishna Hegde who represented Lingayats and Sarekoppa Bangarappa who represented the backwards.  The result was a surprising win by the JNP.

Karnataka 1983 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              83                40.78%   (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         6                 3.00%

JNP+         219             106               37.96%   (CPM and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       11                 4.64%

BJP+         115               18                 8.21%

LKD            26                 0                 0.53%  (LKD is really JNP(S) renamed)

The JNP victory was made possible local level tactical voting between JNP+ and BJP.  With JNP+ winning more seats than INC+ but not a majority, JNP formed the government with BJP support from the outside.  After much negotiations Ramakrishna Hegde was made the compromise CM.

The JNP victory was short lived as in 1984 Indira Gandhi was assassinated leading to an early 1984 LS election where the Rajiv Gandhi led INC won a massive national landslide on a sympathy wave.  Of course as before Karnataka swung in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  While INC won in Karnataka LS elections the result was a swing away from INC from 1980 whereas in the rest of India the swing was toward INC.  The result was still a large INC victory despite an JNP-BJP-CPI alliance.

Karnataka 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               24               51.63%

INC rebel                        0                 0.44%

JNP+         28                 4               40.60%  (BJP and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0                 1.36%

LKD            7                  0                0.49%

CPM            1                  0                0.10%

After the INC landslide victory the legitimacy of the  Ramakrishna Hegde JNP goverment was called into question.  Ramakrishna Hegde decided to take the gamble that 1984 was an one off sympathy wave for INC and that JNP could win a snap assembly election to renew his mandate.  In the meantime Sarekoppa Bangarappa was was in the JNP government but disappointing that was not made CM defected back to INC and played a leading role in the INC campaign.  The result was a smashing victory for JNP mostly as the BJP vote base shifted over to JNP to defeat INC.

Karnataka 1985 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              66               41.06%

INC rebel                        2                 2.11%

JNP+         222            147               46.32%  (CPI and CPM were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       7                  2.05%

BJP+         117               2                  3.92%

LKD            32               0                  0.37%

INC vote base stayed intact relative to 1983 but JNP+ now won an absolute majority on the shift of the BJP vote over to JNP.  Ramakrishna Hegde being from an upper caste background also made it easier to capture the BJP upper caste vote and continued as CM of Karnataka.
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 10:01:42 pm »
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C-Voter Karnataka poll has a hung assembly with a slight edge for INC

               Seats         Vote share
INC           102             36.6%
BJP            96              35.9%
JD(S)         25              18.8%

A poll at this stage tends to overestimate the ruling party so this seems to imply a small BJP majority.
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2018, 08:01:29 am »
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After Ramakrishna Hegde lead JNP to victory in 1985, things became to fall apart for JNP. First Ramakrishna Hegde got embroiled in various corruption scandals.  Also the battle between Lingayats (led by Ramakrishna Hegde) and Vokkaliga(Deve Gowda) flared up.  Things to the point by 1988 that Ramakrishna Hegde resigned as the political heat got too high even as he retained de facto control of the government.  At the national level the INC national government also got in trouble with its own corruption scandals as VP Singh's JM split out from INC and then merged with JNP and LKD to form JD to take on INC in 1989 LS elections.   Deve Gowda who was itching for a fight with Ramakrishna Hegde announced that he rejected the merged and took his followers to continue on with JNP while Ramakrishna Hegde faction became the Karnataka JD.  Then then INC central government claimed that  Deve Gowda's defection meant that the JD government lost its majority and dissolved the Karnataka assembly paving the way for a joint 1989 LS and assembly election in 1989.

The rise of Hindu-Muslim tensions in Northern India gave BJP hope that it could make gains and BJP formed an alliance with a new farmer based KRRS.  The old INC(O) CM Veerendra Patil who defected back to INC in the late 1970s and Sarekoppa Bangarappa fought to lead INC.  INC high command picked  Veerendra Patil who led the INC to a smashing victory in both the LS and assembly election given the 3 way split of the anti-INC vote (between JD JNP and BJP.)  

Karnataka 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              27                48.90%

INC rebel                        0                  0.91%

JD+            28                1                29.50%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JNP+          27                0                10.89%

CPI              1                0                  0.77%

BJP+          16                0                  6.00%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)


Karnataka 1989 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              180             44.22%  (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         7                2.54%

JD+           218               24              27.85%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JD rebel                           3               1.49%

CPI+           25                0                1.13%  (CPM was part of CPI+)

JNP           217                2               11.34%

BJP+         223                6                7.72%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)

KCVP            1                1                0.20%

There was tactical alliance in some seats between JD+ and CPI+ but to no avail.  JD did prove it self as the main opponent of INC over  Deve Gowda's JNP.  One again Karnataka swung in a different direction as the rest of India as INC was soundly defeated in Northern India by a series of tactical JD BJP and Left Front alliances.  VP Singh JD came into power at the center with outside support by BJP and Left Front.  In Karnataka Veerendra Patil was made the CM.   So just like after 1977 INC is out of power at the center but is now strong in Karnataka as a base of operations for INC's comeback.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 11:37:33 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: Today at 11:58:17 am »
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In MP civic elections the INC and BJP mostly tied.  This is bad news for BJP since BJP tends to be strong in urban areas and INC rural areas.   This seems to imply anti-incumbancy trends in MP and that INC has a shot at closing the gap in assembly elections in late 2018.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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