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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states  (Read 6020 times)
jaichind
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« on: January 03, 2018, 12:56:01 pm »

I will start a India 2018 assembly elections thread soon now we are in 2018.

2018 assembly elections are

Meghalaya (Feb 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA (BJP plus NDA parties like pro-BJP NCP splinter
                                    NPP).  BJP-NPP will pose a real challenge to INC

Tripura (March 2018) - Left Front incumbent vs INC vs NDA (Left front has Bengali vote, Tribal vote
                                   unclear, as it could go INC or BJP+various tribal allies).  Left front will win
                                    with the tribal vote split between INC and BJP+

Nagaland (March 2018) - NPF incumbent (BJP ally) vs INC.  NPF+BJP most likely too strong for INC
                                     to overcome.

Karnataka (May 2018) - INC incumbent vs BJP vs JD(S).  Not clear if JD(S) will form tactical alliance
                                      with BJP or INC or truly go it alone.  INC would be lucky to emerge as the
                                       largest party

Mizoram (Dec 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA(BJP plus MNF and ZNP).  BJP+MNF+ZNP could pose a
                                    real challenge to INC which had been dominate in this state

Chhattisgarh(Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Chhattisgarh is INC's PA.  Close but no cigar in
                                      2003 2008 and 2013 with narrow losses to BJP.  This time INC should win
                                      but INC rebel Ajit Jogi JC will make it a 3 way fight could throw the
                                      election to BJP

Madhya Pradesh (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Second most pro-BJP state after Gujarat.   
                                            INC will make gains like 2017 Gujarat but most likely will not win.           

Rajasthan (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Rajasthan has been very elastic historically and
                                   even though INC was crushed in 2013 there is a better than even odds INC
                                     comes back to power in a narrow win over BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 01:30:54 pm »

Bihar RJD Lalu Yadav who is out on bail from his conviction from the infamous Fodder Scam of the 1980s-1990s was  convicted for another count as part of the Fodder Scam and may end up in jail again soon.  Most likely this will not dent the RJD vote base since the RJD will make this a Forwards vs Backwards issue since Lalu Yadav's predecessor Upper Caste INC CM Jagannath Mishra was also charged as part of the Fodder Scam but was not convinced. 

What the RJD was focus on is making sure that in 2019 INC leads an anti-BJP national alliance where RJD-INC will fight as a bloc.  RJD's plan is then to rope in the Left Front as various JD(U) rebel parties (like HAM or RLSP as well as Shard Yadav's anti-BJP JD(U) faction.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2018, 08:20:12 am »

First state up for elections is Karnataka which is the last large state ruled by INC.



Karnataka which used to be called Mysore was created from several states to created a Kannada speaking state




Politically Karnataka is the only Southern state where the BJP has a large presence.  It also, since 1977, has been the anti-bellwether where it mostly swings in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  

Karnataka has been called Caste-nataka.  Karnataka and UP are the two states where caste politics are the most dominate in political clivage.  

The caste breakdown which is not well known since any attempt to calculate this is politically explosive is roughly

Vokkaliga - 16% (is considered OBC)
Lingayats - 23%
Muslims - 15%
Kurubas - 8%  (is considered OBC)
Dalits - 15%
Tribals - 3%
Other OBC - 12%
Brahmins/Upper castes - 5%
Christian - 3%

Karnataka used to be dominated politically by the Upper Caste elites but since the 1970s has been dominated by the rivalries between the two mega-castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats.  In theory Lingayats is not a caste but really a sub-religion which is part of Shaivism but within  Karnataka they have become a de facto caste.

In coastal Karnataka where Muslims are more numerous it tends to be a Hindu vs Mulsim conflict.  In Northern Karnataka Lingayats tend to more numerous while in Southern Karnataka Vokkaliga tend to be more numerous.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 12:12:53 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2018, 06:59:09 pm »

The evolution of the of Karnataka party system are

pre-1977        1 party domination system (INC) 
1977-1991      2 party system (INC vs JNP/JD)
1991-1999      3 party system (INC vs JD vs BJP)
1999-present  2.5 party system (INC vs BJP vs weaker JD(S))
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2018, 04:57:06 pm »

Given that the South Asian commentariat seems to expect a saffron victory in Karnataka, would a larger-than-expected Congress victory in Karnataka, i.e. one that results in a net gain similar to the one seen by Congress in Gujarat last month, be enough for the pundit-sphere to declare that a "Congress comeback!" is in the works, or would that require, say, an actual Congress victory in the upcoming Rajasthan election later this year?

I probably care a tad too much political narration in a country that I've never even been to, but whatever.
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2018, 05:11:39 pm »

Given that the South Asian commentariat seems to expect a saffron victory in Karnataka, would a larger-than-expected Congress victory in Karnataka, i.e. one that results in a net gain similar to the one seen by Congress in Gujarat last month, be enough for the pundit-sphere to declare that a "Congress comeback!" is in the works, or would that require, say, an actual Congress victory in the upcoming Rajasthan election later this year?

I probably care a tad too much political narration in a country that I've never even been to, but whatever.

Karnataka tends to go in the opposite direction of India as a whole and Rajasthan tends to be very elastic.  So even if INC were to win in both it does not necessary mean a INC revival across India.  A defeat in both would indicate a BJP landslide in 2019.  A better signal of INC comeback would be MP which would be the second BJP state.  If INC were to be able to pretty much pull of a tie like Gujarat later this year then it would indicate that in 2019 the INC would be competitive although still at a disadvantage relative BJP. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2018, 05:21:53 pm »

Karnataka/Mysore has been dominated by the INC since its creation as a one party state.  The INC leadership has been dominated by the landowning Upper caste which dominated local politics at the township and village level.  

After INC split at the national level in 1969 into INC and INC(O).  The CM of Karnataka at the time was Veerendra Patil which like his mentor and former CM of Karnataka Nijalingappa side with the anti-Indira Gandhi INC(O). 

 
After INC landslide victory in 1971 LS elections most of INC(O) went with INC in Karnataka and in the 1972 Assembly elections INC won in a landslide victory and Indira Gandhi appointed Devaraj Urs as the new CM.


Urs saw that with INC(O) split off and joining forces with the opposition the old politics dominated by the Upper Castes will not be enough to ensure INC domination.  He worked to activate two mega- castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats into the INC system.  In the meantime all the opposition parties (BJS (proto-BJP), SWA and various Socialists) merged with INC(O) to form JNP to take on the INC in the 1977 general elections.  The INC as soundly defeated in Northern India but in Karnataka INC beat back the JNP thanks to the broadening of the INC base by Urs.

Karnataka 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              26                 56.80%

INC rebels                      0                   1.08%

JNP             28               2                  39.89%

CPI               3               0                   0.40%
 
RPI               2               0                   0.33%  (Dalit based party)

With the defeat of INC in Northern India Karnataka and AP were the only states left that leaned INC after 1977 and these two states became to core of the Indira Gandhi/INC comeback.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2018, 05:27:40 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 07:37:16 pm »

India Today TN poll has with Rajinikanth party has
 
                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      130           34%
AIADMK         68           26%
Rajinikanth     33           16%



If the vote shares are accurate I do not buy the seat distribution.  Rajinikanth's support tends to cut across regions and TN tends to have a fairly uniform swing.  Rajinikanth is unlikely to win more than 10 seats with just 16% of the vote and a DMK-INC vote share gap with AIADMK of 8% tend to indicate something like

                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      170           34%
AIADMK         50           26%
Rajinikanth     10           16%
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2018, 07:56:56 am »

After the INC defeat in the 1977 LS election, INC which sent into opposition nationally but fully in control in Karnataka split into pro- and anti- Indira Gandhi factions.  The pro-Indira Gandhi faction created INC(I) with Karnataka CM Urs siding with Indira Gandhi and leader of INC(I) in Karnataka.  The 1978 Karnataka assembly election became a battle of not just INC vs JNP but which is the real INC.  With Urs mass base in Karnataka, INC(I) defeated Veerendra Patil led JNP and drove the anti-Indira Gandhi INC into a weak third place and showing that INC(I) is the "true" INC.

Karnataka 1978 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)+       224            155             46.21% (CPI and RPI were part of INC+)

INC(I) rebel                      3              1.16%

JNP+           224             60             38.38%

JNP rebel                         4               1.79%

INC             215              2                8.29%

CPM             10               0                0.50%

The INC(I) victory established INC(I) is THE INC and established Karnataka as the base for Indira Gandhi's national comeback.  As a result of this defeat Veerendra Patil  was eased aside as leader of JNP and Deve Gowda who is a mass Vokkaliga leader brought in as JNP leader.  Gowda was a member of INC and went with the anti-Indira GandhiINC(O) in 1969 when INC split.  He then went on to join JNP when INC(O) merged into JNP.


A crisis at the national level in mid 1979 led to a split of the national JNP into JNP and JNP(S) and trigged a LS election in early 1980.  By 1979 Urs's relationship with Indira Gandhi broke down due to Indira Gandhi was clearly pushing Sanjay Gandhi's position with INC(I).  As a result Urs split from INC(I) and joined up with the anti-Indira Gandhi's INC.  The resulting party was called INC(U).
 Most of INC(I) MLAs in Karnataka went over to INC(U) and Urs continued as CM.  Gundu Rao lead a bloc of INC(I) MLAs that stayed loyal to Indira Gandhi.

In the meantime Veerendra Patil who felt sidelined by Gowda taking over JNP in Karnataka defected to INC(I).  INC(U) and JNP(S) formed an alliance at the national level but failed to do so in Karnataka.  At the national level INC(I) came back to power winning back Northern India.  In Karnataka INC(U) was expected to sweep the polls given Urs mass base but in the end the Indira Gandhi wave swept INC(I) to victory as well with the anti-Indira Gandhi vote split between INC(U) JNP and JNP(S).

Karnataka 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)        28               27                 56.25%

JNP            28                1                  22.93%

INC(U)+     28                0                  16.94%  (CPI was part of INC(U)+)

JNP(S)       12                0                   1.22%

CPM            1                0                   0.22%

1980 was a restoration election for Indira Gandhi whose INC(I) became officially THE INC.   After the LS election INC(U) MLAs in Karnataka all defected to INC(I) (now just INC) and Urs resigned as CM paving way for INC's Gundu Rao to take over a CM.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 08:18:23 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2018, 06:37:29 pm »

(Bloomberg) --
India to hold assembly elections for Tripura on Feb. 18, Chief Election Commissioner A. K. Joti said at a press conference in New Delhi.

Elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland to take place on Feb. 27
Counting of ballots in all three states to be held on March 3
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2018, 09:54:22 pm »

After the 1980 elections where Indira Gandhi's INC is fully back in control at the center as well as Karnataka things began to go wrong for INC.  The main problem is CM Gundu Rao main claim to fame is that he is close to Indira Gandhi's son Sanjay Gandhi who die in a plane accident right after the 1980 elections.  Gundu Rao lacked a mass base and trying to replicate what Urs did by mobilizing the Vokkaliga and Lingayats, he tried to mobilize the lower castes as his mass base.  This generated resentment from both the Vokkaliga and Lingayats which represented crisis for INC and opportunity for the opposition.

On the opposition side INC(U) fell apart while on the JNP side, the original BJS faction of JNP split back out as BJP but lacked a real base in Karnataka.  As the 1983 assembly election approached two key players emerged to play a big role in this election as well as Karnataka politics over the next two decades. 

Ramakrishna Hegde who was with INC and then joined INC(O) and along with it became a key leader of JNP was a Brahmin but was very close to Lingayats. 


Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was a champion of backward castes started in the PSP before defecting to INC becoming a sidekick of Urs following him into INC(I), INC(U) and then back to INC.  He had hoped to supplant Gundu Rao as CM but not given a chance by INC high command, broke with INC, formed KKR with his new rebel party running on the JNP symbol.


The 1983 JNP effort was a joint effort of Deve Gowda who represented the Vokkaliga, Ramakrishna Hegde who represented Lingayats and Sarekoppa Bangarappa who represented the backwards.  The result was a surprising win by the JNP.

Karnataka 1983 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              83                40.78%   (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         6                 3.00%

JNP+         219             106               37.96%   (CPM and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       11                 4.64%

BJP+         115               18                 8.21%

LKD            26                 0                 0.53%  (LKD is really JNP(S) renamed)

The JNP victory was made possible local level tactical voting between JNP+ and BJP.  With JNP+ winning more seats than INC+ but not a majority, JNP formed the government with BJP support from the outside.  After much negotiations Ramakrishna Hegde was made the compromise CM.

The JNP victory was short lived as in 1984 Indira Gandhi was assassinated leading to an early 1984 LS election where the Rajiv Gandhi led INC won a massive national landslide on a sympathy wave.  Of course as before Karnataka swung in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  While INC won in Karnataka LS elections the result was a swing away from INC from 1980 whereas in the rest of India the swing was toward INC.  The result was still a large INC victory despite an JNP-BJP-CPI alliance.

Karnataka 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               24               51.63%

INC rebel                        0                 0.44%

JNP+         28                 4               40.60%  (BJP and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0                 1.36%

LKD            7                  0                0.49%

CPM            1                  0                0.10%

After the INC landslide victory the legitimacy of the  Ramakrishna Hegde JNP goverment was called into question.  Ramakrishna Hegde decided to take the gamble that 1984 was an one off sympathy wave for INC and that JNP could win a snap assembly election to renew his mandate.  In the meantime Sarekoppa Bangarappa was was in the JNP government but disappointing that was not made CM defected back to INC and played a leading role in the INC campaign.  The result was a smashing victory for JNP mostly as the BJP vote base shifted over to JNP to defeat INC.

Karnataka 1985 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              66               41.06%

INC rebel                        2                 2.11%

JNP+         222            147               46.32%  (CPI and CPM were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       7                  2.05%

BJP+         117               2                  3.92%

LKD            32               0                  0.37%

INC vote base stayed intact relative to 1983 but JNP+ now won an absolute majority on the shift of the BJP vote over to JNP.  Ramakrishna Hegde being from an upper caste background also made it easier to capture the BJP upper caste vote and continued as CM of Karnataka.
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 10:01:42 pm »

C-Voter Karnataka poll has a hung assembly with a slight edge for INC

               Seats         Vote share
INC           102             36.6%
BJP            96              35.9%
JD(S)         25              18.8%

A poll at this stage tends to overestimate the ruling party so this seems to imply a small BJP majority.
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2018, 08:01:29 am »

After Ramakrishna Hegde lead JNP to victory in 1985, things became to fall apart for JNP. First Ramakrishna Hegde got embroiled in various corruption scandals.  Also the battle between Lingayats (led by Ramakrishna Hegde) and Vokkaliga(Deve Gowda) flared up.  Things to the point by 1988 that Ramakrishna Hegde resigned as the political heat got too high even as he retained de facto control of the government.  At the national level the INC national government also got in trouble with its own corruption scandals as VP Singh's JM split out from INC and then merged with JNP and LKD to form JD to take on INC in 1989 LS elections.   Deve Gowda who was itching for a fight with Ramakrishna Hegde announced that he rejected the merged and took his followers to continue on with JNP while Ramakrishna Hegde faction became the Karnataka JD.  Then then INC central government claimed that  Deve Gowda's defection meant that the JD government lost its majority and dissolved the Karnataka assembly paving the way for a joint 1989 LS and assembly election in 1989.

The rise of Hindu-Muslim tensions in Northern India gave BJP hope that it could make gains and BJP formed an alliance with a new farmer based KRRS.  The old INC(O) CM Veerendra Patil who defected back to INC in the late 1970s and Sarekoppa Bangarappa fought to lead INC.  INC high command picked  Veerendra Patil who led the INC to a smashing victory in both the LS and assembly election given the 3 way split of the anti-INC vote (between JD JNP and BJP.)  

Karnataka 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              27                48.90%

INC rebel                        0                  0.91%

JD+            28                1                29.50%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JNP+          27                0                10.89%

CPI              1                0                  0.77%

BJP+          16                0                  6.00%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)


Karnataka 1989 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              180             44.22%  (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         7                2.54%

JD+           218               24              27.85%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JD rebel                           3               1.49%

CPI+           25                0                1.13%  (CPM was part of CPI+)

JNP           217                2               11.34%

BJP+         223                6                7.72%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)

KCVP            1                1                0.20%

There was tactical alliance in some seats between JD+ and CPI+ but to no avail.  JD did prove it self as the main opponent of INC over  Deve Gowda's JNP.  One again Karnataka swung in a different direction as the rest of India as INC was soundly defeated in Northern India by a series of tactical JD BJP and Left Front alliances.  VP Singh JD came into power at the center with outside support by BJP and Left Front.  In Karnataka Veerendra Patil was made the CM.   So just like after 1977 INC is out of power at the center but is now strong in Karnataka as a base of operations for INC's comeback.
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2018, 11:58:17 am »

In MP civic elections the INC and BJP mostly tied.  This is bad news for BJP since BJP tends to be strong in urban areas and INC rural areas.   This seems to imply anti-incumbancy trends in MP and that INC has a shot at closing the gap in assembly elections in late 2018.
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2018, 08:22:01 am »

After the 1989 return of INC to power in Karnataka things tarted to fall apart for the new CM Veerendra Patil.  Since Veerendra Patil was more aligned Lingayats that provoked instant rebellions from Vokkaliga and backward sections of INC.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa who lead the backwards in INC activity sought to undermine Patil.  At the national level the new JD minority government ran afoul the BJP who in turn pushed up Hindu-Muslim conflict which also rocked and Karnataka.  By 1990 Veerendra Patil was removed as CM and Sarekoppa Bangarappa installed as CM as part of INC infighting which weakened the INC in Karnataka. 

In the JD camp defeat in 1989 lead to a truce between the Ramakrishna Hegde(JD) and Deve Gowda(JNP) who agreed to join forces to try to take on INC.  In the meantime the Hindu-Muslim conflict over Ayodhya polarized the Karnataka electorate and led to a surge in support for the BJP.  So when the 1991 midterm LS elections where called INC was under pressure from both JD and BJP.  Overall while nationally there was was a swing toward INC due to Rajiv Gandhi assassination, INC lost ground due to the BJP surge as well as the truce in the JD civil war which again had Karnataka swing in a different direction then the nationwide trends.  Overall INC won the election but the BJP surge shows that the BJP was now a third leg in a 3 party system.

Karnataka 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               23                42.13%

JD+           28                 1                22.34% (JNP CPI CPM were part of JD+)

BJP            28                 4                29.28%

KRRS         10                0                   3.18%

BJP broke its alliance with KRRS but still did well due to the Hindu-Muslim conflict.  After the election Deve Gowda's JNP merged into JD.  At the national level INC which won a near majority formed the goverment at the center. 

Sarekoppa Bangarappa's rule did not last too long before more backstabbing and infighting took place and in 1992 Sarekoppa Bangarappa was removed as CM and replaced by Veerappa Moily.  There rapid shifts in leadership eroded and wiped out all INC credibility of running a steady ship.  Not accepting the lost of power Sarekoppa Bangarappa broke with INC and formed KCP ahead of the 1994 assembly elections which was a total wipe-out for INC due to the KCP split that ate into its backward vote.

Karnataka 1994 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              36                27.54%

INC rebel                        6                  2.82%

KCP+        220              11                  7.60% ( Muslim based INL was part of KCP+)

JD+          223            116                 33.86%

JD rebel                         9                   2.60%

BJP+         223             40                 16.99%

KRRS          89              1                    2.36%

BSP            77              1                    0.78%

CPM+         21              1                    0.72%  (CPI was part of CPM+)

AIADMK       4               1                   0.24%

KVP           42               1                   0.18%

BRP            2               1                    0.13%

A united JD with both the Ramakrishna Hegde and Deve Gowda factions working together won JD a massive victory over a divided INC and a BJP whose Hindu consolidation tide has receded since 1991.  Deve Gowda took over as CM and initially it seems that the previous Ramakrishna Hegde-Deve Gowda conflicts that rocked the post-1985 JNP government  was under control.  As a result JD entered the 1996 LS elections mostly still as a united entity and won the LS election in Karnataka over a still divided INC.


Karnataka 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                5                 30.29%

KCP+         12                1                  4.00%

JD+           28              16                 35.29%

BJP            28               6                  24.85%

CPI              1               0                    0.38%

SP               1               0                    0.68%

The 1996 election was a swing against INC and in favor of BJP nationally but with JD losing some ground.   Once again Karnataka went against the national trend to some extent with BJP losing ground since 1991 in terms vote share (but gaining seats) and JD making very large gains when nationally JD lost ground. 

The national election threw up a hung house and in the end the JD led national front was installed as a minority government with outside support from INC and Left Front to lock out BJP.  The consensus PM candidate was  Karnataka  CM Deve Gowda who left for Delhi to become CM and he left his chief lieutenant J. H. Patel as the JD CM of  Karnataka.
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2018, 01:20:02 pm »

SHS which has been a de facto opposition party to BJP within the ruling NDA government announced that for the 2019 Maharashtra LS and Assembly elections SHS will run separately and not have an alliance with the BJP.   Of course at the same time SHS does not seems to pull out of the BJP led government both at the center nor at the Maharashtra level which drew ridicule from other opposition parties.

The BJP does not seem to take this seriously.  A BJP leader compared the SHS to an upset wife who keeps threatening her husband that she would go back to her parental home.
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2018, 08:01:06 am »

After JD came to power at the center in 1996 with Karnataka  JD CM Deve Gowda becoming PM things started to fall apart for JD.  With  Deve Gowda sidekick J. H. Patel taking over as CM, Ramakrishna Hegde fell that he was not getting his due at power and the Deve Gowda-Ramakrishna Hegde  Vokkaliga -Lingayats alliance started to far apart.  Ramakrishna Hegde pretty much split the JD caucus and acting independently from CM J. H. Patel.  By early 1997 Ramakrishna Hegde bolted from JD and created LS.

Later in 1997 Deve Gowda  was forced to leave the PM office due to opposition and pressure from INC which was supporting the JD government at the center from the outside.  Deve Gowda's return to  Karnataka politics increased Deve Gowda-Ramakrishna Hegde conflict even as Deve Gowda was separately fighting against his old sidekick CM J. H. Patel to regain his old influence.  

On the INC front, the decline of KCP in the 1996 LS elections has led Sarekoppa Bangarappa to merge KCP back into INC.  But within a year where Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was expecting to play a leading role if not take over the Karnataka INC bolted from INC again and formed another splinter KVP when INC instead when with S. M. Krishna, who was a Vokkaliga, as its leader.  S. M. Krishna was in PSP in the 1960s but joined up with INC under Indira Gandhi when INC(O) split out from INC and has been near the apex of INC leadership since the 1980s.



At the national level, INC withdrew support from JD and as a result the 1998 LS elections were called.  Ramakrishna Hegde saw that his LS was not winning over enough of JD support and for political survival allied his LS with BJP as a junior partner.   The result of the LS election in  Karnataka was a victory by BJP-LS.

Karnataka 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                9                 36.22%

KVP            19                0                  1.76%

JD              28                3                 21.69%

BJP+          28              16                 38.44%  (LS was part of BJP+)

BSP             6                0                   0.56%

For once Karnataka swung in a similar was as the rest of India with BJP making gains and JD with losses.  The LS defection cost JD dearly as Ramakrishna Hegde was able to move some of his Lingayats base over to vote BJP.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa's KVP totally bombed and he once again had to merge his KVP back into INC again.  At the national level BJP lead alliance came into power with backing from regional parties like TDP and AIADMK.

By 1999 AIADMK pulled support from BJP provoking a 1999 LS election which was held at the same time as the  Karnataka assembly election.  JD at the national split down the middle between pro- and anti- BJP sections.  The pro-BJP faction became JD(U) and joined the BJP lead NDA while the anti-BJP faction became JD(S). Given the Ramakrishna Hegde's LS alliance with BJP Deve Gowda naturally took the anti-BJP position and became the head of JD(S).  Karnataka CM J. H. Patel who was battling with Deve Gowda for control of JD naturally went with JD(U).  J. H. Patel then worked with  Ramakrishna Hegde to merge LS into JD(U).  For the 1999 elections JD(U) managed to from an alliance with BJP for the LS elections (as a junior partner as the JD civil wars pretty much crushed JD(U) support) but had only a partial alliance for the assembly elections.  The result was a united INC sweep as the anti-incumbency sentiment against JD got transferred to its ally BJP.

Karnataka 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           28                 18              45.41%

JD(S)        28                  0               11.07%

BJP+         28                10               39.62%   (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BSP           6                   0                0.65%

The BJP-JD(U) alliance which managed to keep the Lingayats vote in the BJP+ camp managed to control the scale of the INC victory.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was not given a leading role in the assembly elections so he does not become a problem for S. M. Krishna was elected as a MP.  Again Karnataka went againist the national tide where the BJP made gains and returned to power while INC lost ground despite an increase in vote share.

Karnataka 1999 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+          224            133              41.16%  (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                       10               2.60%

JD(S)+      207              11              10.81%

BJP+         156              45              21.44%

BJP rebel                        0                0.33%

JD(U)+      133             24               16.47%

JD(U) rebel                    1                1.35%

BSP           85                0                0.94%

KRRS          9                0                0.40%

Here the failure for BJP and JD(U) to have more than a tactical alliance in some of the seats lead to a much larger victory.  S. M. Krishna lead the INC to a large victory and was installed as CM.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 07:52:06 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2018, 08:42:05 pm »

ABP News- Lokniti- CSDS ‘Mood of the Nation Survey 2018

BJP falls relative to 2017 and INC rise relative to 2017


Regional breakdown.  NDA strong in North and West



NDA is BJP, SHS (Maharashtra), SAD (Punjab), TDP (AP and Telangana), LJP (Bihar), JD(U) (Bihar), BPP (Assam), SWP(Maharashtra), RSP(Maharashtra), RPI(A)(Maharashtra), AD(UP), HAM(Bihar), RLSP(Bihar), AJSU(Jharkhand), AGP(Assam)

UPA is INC, RJD (Bihar and Jharkhand), NCP(Maharashtra), DMK(TN), MKK(TN), PT(TN), JMM(Jharkhand), IMUL(TN and Kerela), RSP(Kerela), BVA(Maharashtra).  [Note, I think they are missing KEC(M) in Kerala)

NDA is stronger relative to 2014 in terms of allies since JD(U) and AGP is now part of NDA as opposed to 2014.  But it is likely SHS might not be part of NDA in 2019.  UPA might be underestimated since between now and 2019 AITC in WB, YSCP in AP, and SP in UP might become allies of INC if not join UPA.

Voting intention in WB

              2017        2018
INC           9             11
BJP          29             23
AITC        37             42
Left          19             20
Others       6               4


Voting intention in Maharashtra

              2017        2018
INC           18            24
NCP           13           15
BJP           38            31
SHS          16            19
Others       15           11

If INC-NCP alliance continues while SHS breaks it alliance with BJP then BJP might be in trouble.


Voting intention in Gujarat

              2017        2018
INC           30            35
BJP           61             54
Others        9             11

In 2017 assembly elections INC fought BJP to 43-50 so this poll might be underestimating BJP or more likely with Modi running BJP over-performs given  the favorite son effect.


Voting intention in Karnataka for 2018 assembly elections

INC      49
BJP      27
JD(S)   20

Most likely overestimates INC but if this poll is true then INC on route to a victory.
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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2018, 08:18:41 am »

After the 1999 elections the BJP led NDA alliance was re-elected at the center while INC took power in Karnataka led by new CM S. M. Krishna.  Unlike the chaotic 1989-1994 INC and 1994-1999 JD regime, S. M. Krishna did seem to bring some stability to the ruling regime.  

JD(U) did badly in the 1999 elections and with J. H. Patel retiring and Ramakrishna Hegde influence on the decline JD(U)'s profile quickly shrank, losing a good part of its vote base to BJP.   Ramakrishna Hegde made one last attempt at a comeback by forming AIPJD with some former key leaders within JD(U) and JD(S) in 2002 but it was clear that it was not going to be a significant force.

On the BJP side one conclusion of the 1999 elections was that not having a face of the party prevented it from overtaking INC as the dominate political force in Karnataka.  As a result they invited in building up the profile of B. S. Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, who also moving up in ability for mass appeal.  

On the negative side BJP experienced a split in Karnataka with KNP being created as a BJP splinter.

On the JD(S) side there was a real danger that in the next election JD(S) will become marginalized as the third place party behind INC and BJP.  Deve Gowda concluded that he mush also push new political faces of JD(S) to expand its appeal as part of the next generation of leaders. For this he turned to his son H. D. Kumaraswamy


and Siddaramaiah who was a Kurubas but with a long career in JNP and then JD and had mass appeal but especially with Kurubas.


As the 2004 LS and Karnataka approached there was a sense that the NDA should win re-election at the federal level and with the steady government S. M. Krishna has provided that INC should win re-election.  As a result the BJP pushed up the 2004 LS elections up by a few months and INC did the same for Karnataka.  The result was a shock at the LS level with the UPA defeating the NDA even while the NDA did well in Karnataka.  In the Karnataka assembly elections the INC retained the core INC vote but was pushed to second place by BJP+ in a hung assembly.  Ramakrishna Hegde passed away a few months before the election which further hurt AIPJD's results.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa in the meantime, seeing that he has no shot at leading the INC, quit INC and joined BJP.

Karnataka 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                8                 36.82%

INC rebel                       0                   0.44%

JD(S)         28                2                 20.45%

AIPJD          6                0                   0.63%

BJP+          28              18                 36.64%   (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

KNP           19                0                   1.39%

BSP             9                0                   1.22%

INC managed to keep its core vote base but lost ground to JD(S) relative to 1999.   As a result BJP+ managed to win significantly more seats than INC with a similar vote share.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa won running on the BJP ticket.  In keeping with previous trends Karnataka swung in opposition directions than the rest of India where INC surged leading to the defeat of NDA.


Karnataka 2004 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC          224                65               35.27%

INC rebel                         5                1.86%
 
JD(S)+    224                 59              21.16%

JD(S) rebel                      1                0.36%

AIPJD      165                  0                2.01%

BJP+       223                85               30.52% (JD(U) and AIADMK were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        3                0.86%

JD(U) rebel                     3                1.13%

KNP        188                  1                1.32%

KCVP         5                   1                0.15%

RPI            3                  1                 0.10%

BSP        102                  0                 1.74%

The assembly election threw up a hung assembly which was a surprise as the INC was expected to be returned to power.  Just like the LS elections the JD(S) surge seems to have eaten into the INC vote and allowed the BJP+ to win the most seats over INC.   After many rounds of talks between INC and JD(S) INC's Dharam Singh was installed as CM as a compromise candidate with Siddaramaiah as his JD(S) DCM.
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« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2018, 08:46:46 am »

There have been talk that Modi might move forward the LS election from May 2019 to Oct-Nov 2018 to coincide with MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh assembly elections.  The main logic seems to get the LS election out of the way before the opposition can gain any momentum.  There is a chance that INC might end up doing well in the MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh assembly elections and Modi does not want to risk that momentum helping INC in 2019.  Of course all depends on how BJP and INC does in the Karnataka assembly elections in April-May.

This possibility is driving a lot of political activity in various states where the political players are realizing they might have 6 months less than they thought they had to make their moves. 

In Maharashtra SHS is making an assumption that if the LS election is in Oct-Nov then the Maharashtra assembly elections due in 2019 might get moved forward as well.    SHS has, based on that, pre-announced that it will run alone in the next LS and Maharashtra assembly elections as a way of putting pressure on the BJP for concessions. 

In AP and Telengana it seems that TDP and BJP might end up breaking up if their brinkmanship ends badly.  BJP seems to want to expand in AP which it could not being an ally of TDP.  In Telengana TDP as the party opposed to Telengana being created is going nowhere and the BJP-TDP alliance does not seem to be in a position to defeat TRS.   BJP seems to be toying with breaking with TDP in both AP and Telengana and forming an alliance with YSRCP in AP.  TDP seems to be sensing this and are already making moves to strike first.  If BJP does not do well in  Karnataka then TDP might break off ties with BJP and form an alliance with JSP in AP.  INC is in a tough position in both AP and Telengana since it was counting on an alliance with YSRCP to make it a relevant force again (YSRCP pretty much took over all of AP INC back in 2014). But if it becomes BJP=YSRCP vs TDP-JSP then the INC will be out in the cold as there are almost zero chance that ancient rivals TDP and INC could come together.  Same in Telengana where if BJP can remove the stigma of a TDP alliance the state could be come a TRS vs BJP state with INC in third position. 

In Bihar my predictions that BJP-JD(U) alliance will face trouble once LS seats have to be allocated is coming true.  In 2014 out of the 40 seats it was BJP winning 22 LJP 6 RLSP 3 and JD(U) 2.  Now HAM is part of the NDA in Bihar in addition to JD(U).  Historically the BJP-JD(U) split in Bihar in terms of seats contested has been JD(U) 25 BJP 15.  JD(U) is looking for a similar split  but there is no way BJP can go for that since that would be giving away incumbent seats that the BJP LJP and RLSP currently holds.  HAM and RLSP are already unhappy with JD(U) being part of the NDA in Bihar while LJP seems to get along well with JD(U).  LS elections will bring seat allocation problems to the fore.  Most likely HAM and RLSP will defect to RJD-INC while there will still be a blow up between BJP and JD(U) over seat allocation.  There is even a chance that JD(U) will break off from NDA and run separately just like in 2014.
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« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2018, 01:24:39 pm »

Seems to be a lot of action in Nagaland: 11 political parties called for a delay of the Feb. 27 elections including NPF, BJP, and INC to complete the peace process.. Nagaland BJP didn't seem to get BJP central leadership in Delhi's approval and BJP now wants the election to go ahead.. Then 10 NPF MLAs resign maybe joining a newly formed party.
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The 10 MLAs who resigned have been seen actively participating in the official engagements of the newly formed Nationalist Democratic Peoples Party, which has declared Lok Sabha MP and former chief minister Neiphiu Rio as its chief ministerial candidate.
http://www.news18.com/news/politics/10-npf-mlas-resign-from-party-assembly-in-poll-bound-nagaland-1646129.html

Neiphiu Rio seems to be allied with  BJP so lots of manovuering.
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jaichind
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« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2018, 04:56:31 pm »

Yeah, the Nagaland situation is moving quickly and is a total mess.  The core issue is that there is an insurgency movement (various NSCN factions) which is dedicated to create an independent Greater Nagaland (Nagalim)



The insurgency are in talks with the Central government which is now down to a potential enlargement of Nagaland state with more autonomous powers.    Like other Northeast insurgencies the local regional parties are often one and the same as the insurgency.  Like 1984, the insurgency is not meant to succeed as independence is impossible, it is meant to add pressure on the Indian federal government  to dump subsidies to the regional parties.

To add pressure on the federal government all Nagaland parties (including national parties like INC and BJP) seems to have agreed to not contest  the upcoming assembly elections  arguing that they can only take place once a peace agreement is in place with the insurgents.  The central BJP decided to punish its Nagaland branch for this which flip flopped on that decision.

Last few election cycles BJP ally NPF have dominated Nagaland politics with the INC as the main opposition.  There were talks for NPF and BJP to contest as allies in the upcoming election.  In the end NPF decide against this and broke ties with the BJP.  Former Nagaland NPF CM and now Nagaland NPF MP Neiphiu Rio then joined a NPF splinter NDPP (which he helped to set up ahead of time to cater for this possibility) with his followers.  

So IF there will be an election it will be NPF vs NDPP-BJP vs INC.  NPP which is a pro-BJP Northeast NCP splinter and BJP ally is also looking to contest.  For now it seems BJP will contest by itself as even BJP ally NDPP is, for now, boycotting the election. 
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 04:58:35 pm by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2018, 10:26:50 pm »

Several by-election vote count is this morning.

In Rajasthan we have 2 LS by-elections (Alwar and Ajmer) and 1 assembly by-election (Mandalgarh.)  BJP held a 3 seats.

2014 Alwar LS
BJP       60.5%
INC       33.7%

2014 Ajmer LS
BJP       55.2%
INC       40.3%

2013 Mandalgarh assembly
BJP      51.6%
INC      40.1%

In WB we have 1 LS by-election (Uluberia) and 1 assembly by-election(Noapara.)  AITC held Uluberia and INC held Noapara.

2014 Uluberia LS
AITC    48.1%
CPM     31.2%
BJP      11.6%
INC       5.7%

2016 Noapara assembly
INC      42.8%
AITC    42.2%
BJP      12.7%


So far the INC are ahead in Alwar, Ajmer, and Mandalgarh and AITC are ahead in Uluberia and Noapara.  If kept up then it is a big blow for BJP in Rajasthan especially when the trend in Rajasthan are that by-elections are won by the ruling party.
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The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2018, 10:45:35 pm »

I wrote a while ago a template for defection news

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------


Now we have

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ahead-of-karnataka-polls-former-bjp-minister-joins-congress-5046364/

Ahead of Karnataka polls, former BJP minister joins Congress

Quote
Former Karnataka minister B S Anand Singh, who recently quit BJP and tendered his resignation from the state Legislative Assembly, on Wednesday joined the Congress ahead of assembly polls this year.

Singh along with his supporters joined the party at the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee office here in the presence of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, party state President G Parameshwara, campaign committee chief and Minister D K Shivakumar.

After quitting BJP, Singh had said he was fed up with the “squabbling and bickering” in the party.

Speaking to reporters, Singh said he has joined the Congress accepting its principles, and that the party represents the country’s future. “In the coming days, I will work towards winning all the nine seats in the district for Congress,” he said.

Which fits my template pretty well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2018, 07:00:12 am »

INC wins all 3 Rajasthan by-elections in Alwar, Ajmer, and Mandalgarh.  The INC victory in Mandalgarh assembly seat is especially impressive because there is an INC rebel in the fray but the INC candidate managed to get a narrow win over BJP.

AITC wins both WB by-election in Uluberia and Noapara by landslides.  In both it is AITC then BJP and then CPM but far behind and then INC 4th.  If so then there will be pressure for AITC-INC alliance to stop the BJP surge in 2019 in WB.

Uluberia results vs 2014 swing show a large swing toward AITC and BJP and away from CPM and INC.  Of course last few years BJP tends to do well in WB by-elections only to do a lot worse in the general election.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 07:15:29 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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