Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Funny development (well, not for the ones effected):

In slightly over 1 week, Austria will legalize gay marriage.

But nobody knows how to implement it properly ...



The Constitutional Court said that it's possible to marry by Jan. 1, 2019 - but left it to the ÖVP-FPÖ government to set out the details of implementation.

ÖVP-FPÖ did nothing in this regard (they only stopped their fight against gay marriage and accepted their defeat).

So, nobody knows if LGBTs in a current civil union will have to dissolve their CU first and then "upgrade" it to marriage and pay a fee at the registry office or not.

Also, nobody knows if gay marriages performed abroad will be recognized by Austrian cities and town registries.

The city of Vienna has published their own implementation handbook, advising their registries to switch from civil unions to marriage automatically if the couple wants, without dissolving their civil union first. There will also be no fees in Vienna for the "upgrade". Vienna will also register gay marriages performed abroad as legal in Austria. They will not perform gay marriages though involving a person living primarily in a country that does not allow gay marriage. For example, if an Austrian and Russian gay couple living in Austria want to marry, Vienna will register them. If the Russian couple only travels to Austria, but lives in Russia, they will not register the gay marriage.

Vienna's handbook is the best solution IMO for those who want to marry and should be an example for all other registries in the country. But there will certainly be court battles, because ÖVP-FPÖ could set totally different guidelines next year, colliding with Vienna's. This will then definitely go to the Constitutional Court again. But the chances are good that ÖVP-FPÖ will be dealt another blow.

https://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2954555

[Tender Branson]

A new Spectra/OÖN newspaper poll for the 2021 state election in Upper Austria is out and it shows the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition there in a solid position, but losing somewhat compared with earlier surveys.

Upper Austria is the only state with a 6-year term and the last state election was held in the fall of 2015, when the Middle-Eastern and African migrants swamped into Austria and Central Europe.

Following the state election, a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition was formed (even though Upper Austria still has a Proporz-government, which also includes the SPÖ and Greens).

38-42% ÖVP
26-30% FPÖ
16-18% SPÖ
  9-11% Greens
    3-5% NEOS

About a year ago, the Greens only polled 5% in the same poll and the SPÖ only at 15% - so there is a slight recovery for them. The ÖVP polled 42% and the FPÖ 34% a year ago.

https://www.nachrichten.at/storage/med/download/287976_Politikbarometer_Dez_2018_links.pdf

The ÖVP-Governor Thomas Stelzer gets a high job approval rating of 74-8 and even the FPÖ, SPÖ and Green state government members all have solid approvals (except 1 FPÖ cabinet member).

https://www.nachrichten.at/storage/med/download/287977_Politikbarometer_Dez_2018_rechts.pdf

https://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Stelzer-im-Sympathiehoch-OEVP-haelt-FPOE-klar-auf-Distanz;art383,3085735

[Tender Branson]

Despite left-wing parties and organisations claiming that there was a "social climate change" in Austria over the past year and that Austrian politics etc. got "colder" and "rougher" because of the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, the Christmas charity/donation event ("Licht ins Dunkel" or "Light into the Dark") got more donations from Austrians than ever before:

9.1 billion € were collected by Austrians during the Christmas period for charitable projects domestic and abroad - that is 1.1 billion € more than last year.

I also decided to donate this year and become a child godfather in Africa: 35€ of my monthly wage will go to a female child in the SOS Children's Camp in Gulu, Uganda for the next year (and I might continue to donate afterwards).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307171.0

[Tender Branson]

Here is what Austrian voters want ÖVP-FPÖ (+ the opposition) to deal with in 2019:



The top issue is now healthcare and old-age care, followed by various social justice issues. Dealing with immigration has fallen back to 3rd place, followed by pensions and private pension schemes and the economy/jobs.

https://www.krone.at/1832616

ÖVP-FPÖ will tackle old-age care, welfare/unemployment and healthcare anyway next year - so this is in line with what voters want.

[Tender Branson]

Half a year after the state elections here in Salzburg and Tyrol, there are new GMK/Bezirksblätter polls out:

Salzburg poll results:

41% ÖVP (+3)
21% SPÖ (+1)
19% FPÖ (-4)
  8% Greens (-1)
  8% NEOS (+1)
  3% Others (+1)

In Salzburg, an ÖVP-Greens-NEOS coalition was formed after the election.

https://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg/c-politik/alle-moegen-die-landesregierung_a3103248

Tyrol poll results:

45% ÖVP (+1)
17% FPÖ (+1)
15% SPÖ (-2)
12% Greens (+1)
  6% NEOS (+1)
  4% Fritz (-2)
  1% Others (n.c.)

In Tyrol, the ÖVP-Green coalition was renewed for another term.

https://www.meinbezirk.at/tirol/c-politik/die-zeugnisnoten-werden-besser_a3116883

[Tender Branson]

Peter Hajek's polling company (Public Opinion Strategies) is out with the "Health Barometer 2018" and surprisingly (well, not really) Austrians trust a Conservative (!) a lot more than a Social Democratic doctor (!) to reform the healthcare system for the better:



By a 58-32 margin, voters say ÖVP-leader and Chancellor Sebastian Kurz can reform the healthcare system for the better vs. a 43-34 margin for the SPÖ-leader and tropical doctor and scientist Pamela Rendi-Wagner. FPÖ politicians Strache and Health Minister Hartinger-Klein are far behind.

Austrians also approve the ÖVP-FPÖ healthcare reform merger of the 20+ healthcare system providers to just 5 providers by a 56-39 margin (which is down from 60-31 approval in January).

But Austrians are sceptical if ÖVP-FPÖ's plans to save 1 Bio. € within the system with those mergers will become reality. By a 69-26 margin, Austrians say that those savings are not achievable.

If the savings ARE achievable, 64% say that medical care should be further expanded - while 30% want lower healthcare payroll taxes.

Austrians also favour a financial streamlining of financially weaker and stronger providers for better and equal medical coverage for those insured.

[Tender Branson]

Another new Tyrol poll ("Research Affairs" for the "TT" newspaper):

44% ÖVP (-0.3%)
16% FPÖ (+0.5%)
15% SPÖ (-2.3%)
12% Greens (+1.3%)
  6% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% Fritz (-1.5%)
  3% Others (+1.5%)

https://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/15164628/tiroler-oevp-unter-platter-so-stark-wie-nie-fpoe-ueberholt-spoe

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz wants to introduce a digital tax on large internet and technology companies by Jan. 1, 2020 - as part of the ÖVP-FPÖ's huge tax reform package that will be passed this year and become effective in 2020:

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https://www.rte.ie/news/technology/2018/1229/1019464-gafa-tax

Good.

Kurz continues to work for the Austrian people and workers in a well-thought manner: Nice tax cuts for the workers and middle class (families), some tax cuts for small/medium sized companies, while at the same time taxing large multinational companies that are sneaky and avoid taxes to maximize their already huge profits.

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache (FPÖ-leader & Vice-Chancellor) in an interview yesterday:

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The pictures from his youth say otherwise:

[Tender Branson]

In 2019, there are 5 elections in Austria (of which 2 are important elections):

* EU Parliament Elections (May 26)
* Vorarlberg state election (September)

The not so important elections:

* Salzburg municipal elections (mayor & city council + mayoral runoffs, March 10 and 24)
* Chamber for Workers and Employees (= union vote, 1st quarter of 2019)
* Austrian Students' Union (= "university parliament/student representation", May 27-29)

[Tender Branson]

In the 3 elections I'll be voting in next year, I'll probably do some significant ticket splitting:

Zell am See mayor: probably ÖVP
Zell am See city council: probably SPÖ
EU elections: NEOS
Chamber for Workers and Employees: FSG

The municipal elections are largely meaningless IMO, because the ÖVP mayor is doing a good job and I don't know if the SPÖ guy would do a better one (I think he will be re-elected).

NEOS is most likely a done deal for the EU elections and I'll vote FSG (Faction of Socialist Unionists) in the chamber election.