India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana
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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana  (Read 46028 times)
jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #150 on: May 12, 2018, 08:31:03 AM »
« edited: May 12, 2018, 08:36:44 AM by jaichind »

VMR and Axis has INC ahead

VMR-Zee News
BJP      87
INC      97
JD(S)   35

Axis-India Today
BJP      86
INC    112
JD(S)   26


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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #151 on: May 12, 2018, 08:35:01 AM »

Republic TV has BJP ahead but not clear on JD(S)

BJP     105
INC      78
JD(S)   38  (it should be 32 to 43)

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #152 on: May 12, 2018, 09:14:12 AM »

NewsX exit poll has BJP advantage.

INC     76
BJP    106
JD(S)   37



Same exit poll has vote share

INC    33.75%
BJP     36.09%
JD(S)  18.25%



It seems that INC's defeat in this exit poll has to do with INC vote base going to others which most likely are rebels of all types.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #153 on: May 12, 2018, 09:17:31 AM »

Updated VMR-Times Now TV has INC lead reduced (most likely herding)

INC     97
BJP     94
JD(S)  28

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #154 on: May 12, 2018, 09:19:41 AM »

Digvijay News exit poll has it at

INC     78
BJP    105
JD(S)  33

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #155 on: May 12, 2018, 09:21:19 AM »

Seems to be advantage BJP for several reasons

1) Exit polls tend to underestimate the main opposition party
2) Exit polls seems to be more pro-BJP than pre-election polls
3) JD(S) seat project mostly fall far short of 40 seats.  So JD(S) looks like has under-performed.  Usually when JD(S) under-performs in Karnataka that helps BJP
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #156 on: May 12, 2018, 09:23:17 AM »

Summery so far

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #157 on: May 12, 2018, 09:26:23 AM »

ABP exit poll also BJP ahead

BJP    103
INC     93
JD(S)  26



Same exit poll has vote share

BJP    37%
INC    38%
JD(S) 19%

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #158 on: May 12, 2018, 09:27:52 AM »

NDTV averages the 5 polls that has BJP winning and then the 3 polls that have INC winning

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #159 on: May 12, 2018, 09:32:46 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2018, 09:41:08 AM by jaichind »

India News - Todays Chanakya has usual has the most pro-BJP exit poll

          seats    vote share
INC       73         36%
BJP      120         39%
JD(S)    26          18%


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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #160 on: May 12, 2018, 09:53:04 AM »

Summery of exit polls so far

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #161 on: May 12, 2018, 10:09:17 AM »

Newsx came out with vote share breakdown by caste

It seems that Lingayat vote held up for BJP but Dalit vote swung away from INC leading to INC defeat as per this poll



Seats and vote share projection are

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #162 on: May 13, 2018, 07:06:39 AM »

Axis-India Today exit poll which has it at

BJP      86
INC    112
JD(S)   26

also has vote share of

BJP     35%
INC     39%
JD(S)  17%

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #163 on: May 13, 2018, 07:17:49 AM »

Final turnout in Karnataka ended up being 72% which is a record and is higher than 2013's 71%.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #164 on: May 13, 2018, 07:28:16 AM »

NDTV also choose like to filter out the heavy pro-BJP house effect India News - Todays Chanakya exit poll to derive this poll of polls by dividing up the exit polls into those that give INC and edge and those that give BJP an edge.

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #165 on: May 13, 2018, 11:25:49 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2018, 04:56:06 PM by jaichind »

Now that Karnataka exit polls are out we can do my adjusted exit polls projection

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

Exit poll summery

Note that only 222 out of 224 seats are voting since in 2 seats a candidate has passed away ergo no election will held.

                                                 BJP   INC   JD(S)   Others
Times Now-Today's Chanakya      120    73     26         3
News Nation                               107    73    38          4
NewsX-CNX                                106    75    37          4
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat               105    78    37          2
Dighvijay News                           105    78    33          6
ABP News-C Voter                       103    93    25          1
Times Now-VMR                           94     97    28          3
IndiaTV-VMR                                87     97    35          3
India Today-Axis My India             85    111   26          0
Suvarna                                      85    111   26          0

Average w/o Chanakya                 97     90    32          3
Average w Chanakya                   100    88    31          3

If we look at pre-election polls which overlap with exit pollesters

NewsX-CNX                                87     90    39
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat             105     73    43
ABP News-C Voter                      85      97    38
Times Now-VMR                         89      91    40
IndiaTV-VMR                              85      96    38

For these 5 pollsters we have

Pre-election poll                         90     89    40
Exit poll                                     99     88    32

So the trend from the exit polls is a under-performance of JD(S) and over-performance of BJP.  Since there does not seem to be a large surge toward BJP we can safely remove Today's Chanakya from the calculations.  There is also a move away from JD(S) toward BJP relative to exit polls so we should adjust for that.  There is a small setback for the ruling party (INC) relative to the last election so we should adjust for that as well.

So we should start with

Average w/o Chanakya                 97     90    32          3
exit trend away from JD(S)           +6            -6
move away from INC                   +4     -4

To get                                        BJP    INC  JD(S)   Others
                                                107    86     26         3

Which would imply a BJP government backed by JD(S) from the outside.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #166 on: May 13, 2018, 04:52:53 PM »

Exit Polls to Vex Indian Markets as Majority Seen Eluding Modi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-13/exit-polls-to-vex-indian-markets-as-majority-seen-eluding-modi

It seems that even though the Karnataka exit polls are a bit more pro-BJP than I had expected the Indian equity markets were expecting a clear BJP victory and now there will be a selloff.  Of course the result will be coming out within 48 hours which would be another turning point for the equity markets.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #167 on: May 14, 2018, 09:38:21 PM »

Counting begins

Karnataka (out of 222)

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                10               +2               -15             
INC               20               +1               +11
JD(S)-BSP       7               +1                +4
Others             0               -4

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #168 on: May 14, 2018, 09:48:01 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                26             +12               -22             
INC                31               -8                +9
JD(S)-BSP      17               +5              +13
Others             0              -12

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #169 on: May 14, 2018, 09:51:47 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes

JD(S) doing pretty well so far

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                31             +16               -21             
INC                33             -11                +9
JD(S)-BSP      19              +5               +12
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #170 on: May 14, 2018, 09:56:53 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                36             +19               -20                  44
INC                34             -15                +6                   53
JD(S)-BSP      21              +6               +14                  16
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
Atlas Star
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #171 on: May 14, 2018, 09:59:21 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                41             +20               -24                  47
INC               40              -15               +10                  61
JD(S)-BSP      22              +6               +14                  16
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #172 on: May 14, 2018, 10:06:22 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                46             +22               -29                  81
INC               52              -11               +15                  78
JD(S)-BSP      23              +3               +14                  16
Others             0             -14

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
Atlas Star
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #173 on: May 14, 2018, 10:15:55 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                57             +29               -30                  87
INC               58              -16               +10                  88
JD(S)-BSP      29              +2               +19                  22
Others             0             -15

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #174 on: May 14, 2018, 10:24:18 PM »

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                66             +34               -32                  93
INC               65              -20               +11                  88
JD(S)-BSP      31              +1               +21                  26
Others             0             -15                                         1

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15
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