India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh come on INC

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)

Some real results now.  Despite exit polls JD(S) is doing better than expected.  BJP with slight edge over INC.
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                82             +47               -37                  98
INC                78             -32               +12                  91
JD(S)-BSP      34              +3               +24                  26
Others             1              -18                +1                    0

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)

Some real results now.  Bad news for INC seems to be JD(S) doing well against INC in INC-JD(S) marginals but not doing well in INC-BJP marginals which helps BJP.  On the other hand it seems neither BJP nor INC would cross 100 on current trends which is early.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                87             +49               -37                  98
INC                78             -36                 +9                  88
JD(S)-BSP      38              +6               +27                  29
Others             1              -19                +1                    0

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)

Unofficial source has JD(S) making a massive surge and BJP also above 100.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                87             +49               -39                 101
INC                84             -33               +13                  68
JD(S)-BSP      40              +4               +25                  45
Others             1              -21                +1                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why does the world keep voting for Right-wing nut jobs...



Anyways, jaichind, you're the guru here. Do you think the BJP will come out of this with a majority?

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)


                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                93             +54               -35                 101
INC                82             -36                 +8                  76
JD(S)-BSP      41              +3               +26                  44
Others             1              -21                +1                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

Why does the world keep voting for Right-wing nut jobs...



Anyways, jaichind, you're the guru here. Do you think the BJP will come out of this with a majority?

Most likely.  BJP will be ahead of INC.  I am still suspicious that JD(S) will do as well as they are doing now.  Battle now is can BJP cross 100 seats.

[jaichind]

Note that INC is keeping this close is actually quite an accomplishment.  I think INC will end up winning more seats than any other ruling party running for re-election in Karnataka since the 1970s.

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)

Wow.  INC falling far behind in unofficial count.   Official count converging toward unofficial count. Question now is will BJP gave a majority on its own.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               106            +67               -23                 105
INC                70             -50                 -7                  70
JD(S)-BSP      43              +3               +28                  45
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
JD(S) is doing very well.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               104            +65               -26                  97
INC                71             -50                 -6                   65
JD(S)-BSP      45              +5               +30                  44
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

If BJP gets a majority then there is a solid chance that Modi might call an early LS election before risking MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh in Dec.

[jaichind]

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
JD(S) strong performance. If this holds then the BSP alliance was a masterstroke as it seems that it got a swing of Dalit votes from INC to JD(S).  INC's failure to get  an alliance with JD(S) seems like a mistake although usually a ruling party that forms an alliance with an opposition party to stop an another opposition party usually does not work.

Usually the leading party gains seats toward the end so it seems the BJP has a better than 75% chance with a majority on its own.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               106            +67               -24                 102
INC                69             -52                 -8                   65
JD(S)-BSP      45              +5               +30                  45
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

[jaichind]

Vote share so far is

BJP            38.2%
INC            37.6%
JD(S)-BSP  17.7%

If BJP can beat the INC in terms of vote share then it is on target to win a majority on its own for sure.  Of course INC's vote share so far is higher than in 2013.    JD(S)-BSP vote share is lower than in 2013.  Makes me somewhat suspicious that JD(S) can really hold on to the seats it is ahead in.

[jaichind]

It seems the count later in the day went INC's way and that BJP will fall short of majority
               
                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              62        42       104         36.2%
INC             30         37        77          37.9%
JD(S)-BSP   12         26        38          18.7%
KPJP            1                       1
Ind                           1          1

In a shock, INC came out to support JD(S) to form the government to block BJP to deny BJP any momentum for 2019 LS elections.  INC claims that Rahul Gandhi has contacted JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda who has accepted its offer to back JD(S) to form a government under JD(S)'s Kumaraswamy.  There has been no confirmation of this from JD(S).  BJP is crying fowl.

[jaichind]

It seems the Ind. that is leading is an INC backed independent so if you add that to INC+ so far it is

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              73        31       104         36.3%
INC+           43        36        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   19         19        38          18.7%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

Note that vote share has NOTA which is 0.9%.

JD(S) has publicly confirmed it has accepted INC's offer of support.  Unless BJP makes surge of gains in terms of seat it seems is locked out.  I am sure BSP's anti-BJP position due to tbe SP-BSP alliance in UP is playing a role since JD(S) performance is partly due to BSP support.

[jaichind]

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              77        27       104         36.3%
INC+           46        33        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   24         14        38          18.8%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

It seems KPJP will back INC-JD(S)-BSP.   BSP has 1 out of 38 JD(S)-BSP.  INC CM Siddaramaiah has resigned now it is clear that INC will not get a majority.  INC and JD(S) plans to visit Governor soon to ask to form government.  In theory the Governor has to go with the largest pre-poll alliance which would be BJP.  What JD(S) Kumaraswamy has to do is to give letters of support to the Governor by the INC and JD(S) MLAs for him to invite JD(S) instead of BJP.

[jaichind]

India Sensex index falls 1.3% from peak when it seemed that BJP will get a majority to now when it seems that JD(S) is likely to form government.

[jaichind]

This election result is similar to 2004.

As I mentioned before, INC's performance is actually quite impressive.  INC won the most seats as the incumbent party of any other Karnataka election since the 1985 which itself was fairly unique midterm election.

Karnataka 2004 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC          224                65               35.27%

INC rebel                         5                1.86%
 
JD(S)+    224                 59              21.16%

JD(S) rebel                      1                0.36%

AIPJD      165                  0                2.01%

BJP+       223                85               30.52% (JD(U) and AIADMK were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        3                0.86%

JD(U) rebel                     3                1.13%

KNP        188                  1                1.32%

KCVP         5                   1                0.15%

RPI            3                  1                 0.10%

BSP        102                  0                 1.74%

[jaichind]

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              78        26       104         36.1%
INC+           50        29        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   25         13        38          18.8%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

This is is the highest vote share the BJP has ever achieved in a Karnataka assembly election.  This is the highest vote share for INC+ in a Karnataka assembly election since 1999.

[jaichind]

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              92        12       104         36.2%
INC+           78          8        79          38.1%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

These seats counts are does not seem consistent with vote shares.  If JD(S)-BSP is at 18.7% then I would expect them to be in the 25-30 seat range and not 38, especially when INC+ is at 38.1%.  There must have been significant BJP->JD(S) tactical voting.  Also BJP seems to have done well in the Vokkaliga dominated Southern Karnataka where it ate into JD(S) vote share even as JD(S) won over INC in 3 way JD(S)-INC-BJP battles.

In the meantime BJP is now rushing to try to get JD(S) to ally with BJP.  Unlikely to succeed unless BJP is willing to part with the CM seat to JD(S)  

[jaichind]

It is clear what the INC strategy is behind backing JD(S) to form the government.

1) Stop any media narrative on BJP momentum so Modi cannot go for midterm elections.  Live to fight later in 2018 in MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh where INC is sure to win Rajasthan, 50/50 in Chhattisgarh, and INC chances looking brighter in MP.  If INC can defeat BJP in late 2018 assembly elections then the narrative in 2019 would favor INC.

2) Get a INC Dalit DCM to woo Dalits which is critical for 2019 for the anti-BJP bloc.

3) A TRS led Third front with TDP, JD(S) and potentially with AITC third front would be a threat to the INC leadership of the anti-BJP bloc in 2019.  Getting an alliance with JD(S) would serve to isolate TRS.

[jaichind]

Despite number INC and BJP rebels it seems none of them won.  Typically in Karnataka assembly elections 5-15 rebels of all types win.  This time none of them won.  Speaks to the INC-BJP polarization with JD(S) running a strong campaign.

[jaichind]

In seems INC is backing Swaraj India(SWJI) which is a AAP splinter in one of the seats.  So we should add their votes to the INC+ vote share.  So the INC+ vote share lead over BJP is now 2.2%

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              93        11       104         36.2%
INC+           73          6        79          38.4%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

[jaichind]

INC CM Siddaramaiah loses in one of the two seats he is contesting, JD(S) bastion Chamundeshwari which is his old seat when he was in JD(S).

It is

JD(S)  54.0%
INC     38.0%
BJP       5.4%

It seems that here the BJP base tactically voted JD(S) to embarrass Siddaramaiah.

 
In 2013  Chamundeshwari it was
JD(S)      42.9%
INC         38.9%
KJP           9.5%
BJP           4.7%

[jaichind]

Looks like BJP will get at most 104 seats ... not enough to block JD(S)-INC.

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              97          7       104         36.2%
INC+           76          3        79          38.4%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%