India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

Times Now came out with a national poll with only partial state projections which has it at

BJP      227
INC       78
Others 238


It has the following state projections which are generally pro-BJP
UP: BJP 49 INC 3 Others 28
Bihar: BJP 14 INC 4 Others 22
Rajasthan: BJP 15 INC 10
Chhattisgarh: BJP 8 INC 3
Jharkhand: BJP 8 INC 0 Others 6
Gujarat: BJP 18 INC 8
WB: BJP 3 INC 3 Others 36
AP: BJP 7 INC 3 Others 15
Telangana: BJP 1 INC 3 Others 13
TN: BJP 2 INC 1 Others 36
Kerela: BJP 1 INC 6 Others 13

The AP results of "BJP 7 INC 3 Others 15" and TN results of "BJP 2 INC 1 Others 36" was roundly mocked since the BJP is fairly low base in AP and almost no base in TN.  Of course critics does not take into account that the poll might assume a YSRCP-BJP alliance in AP to counter TDP-INC, while BJP allies with a weakened AIADMK in TN to take on DMK-INC.

Based on these projections I was able to make reasonable assumptions the results of the "Others" bloc as well as likely results in other states to make the numbers add up.  From there I get

NDA: BJP 227 + NDA allies 51 = 278
UPA: INC  78  + UPA allies 69  = 147
Pro-NDA: 28
Anti-NDA: 90

Which has NDA has a bare majority and will need pro-NDA parties (TRS and BJD) support to form a workable majority.  In such a case it is likely that Modi will have to step aside to bring in a BJP CM that will be more acceptable to NDA allies.

This poll seems to assume that
a) In AP it will be TDP-BJP vs TDP-INC
b) In Telangana it will be TRS vs INC-TDP vs BJP
c) In TN it will be AIADMK-BJP vs DMK-INC
d) In Karnataka it will be BJP vs INC vs JD(S)-BSP (despite claims by INC and JD(S) that they will form an alliance)
e) In Maharashtra BJP somehow retains the SHS alliance.

Of course all this means that even with is bare majority BJP will need to accommodate unruly allies like YSRCP and SHS although without Jalaylalitha AIADMK will be a more submissive ally.

[jaichind]

India today semi-annual "Mood of the nation poll."  It has 3 scenarios

Scenario 1 which is the base case is roughly 2014 alliances with
NDA: BJP AGP BPF DMDK HJC JD(U) LJP MDMK NPF NPP PMK RPI(A) SAD SDF SHS
UPA: INC AIMIM DMK JD(S) NC JMM KEC(M) IMUL NCP RJD RLD
Others: AAP AIADMK Left Front AIUDF AITC BJD BSP INLD PDP MNS SP TDP TRS

Comment: It is not realistic to think HJC as being with NDA since it merged back into INC in 2016.  DMDK and PMK could go with BJP but MDMK mostly has decided to go with DMK-INC.  NPF for sure is not with BJP.  I think what the poll meant is pro-BJP NPF splinter NDPP.  AIMIM is really not with UPA.  AIMIM should be viewed like AIUDF which is anti-BJP Muslim sectarian party but not with UPA.  RLD is really with SP-BSP these days and are not really with INC.  I think UPA should also include JVM.  Also this survey does not seem to take into account of new parties like RMM and AMMK in TN and JS in AP.  In theory SHS will leave NDA but I guess this survey assumes they will come back.  Just like in theory KEC(M) left UPA but this survey assumes they will come back. In both cases one can make the argument that both have no where else to go.

            Seat   Vote
NDA      281     36%
UPA      122      31%
Others   140     33%


NDA retains majority but it is a significant loss from 2014 levels which is a blow considering that NDA now has JD(U) with it.



Scenario 2 is if UPA ropes in SP BSP and AITC to join UPA.  Then it has

Comment: I do not think an INC-AITC alliance is a good idea in WB as a tool to stop BJP.  The AITC and INC has vote bases which at this stage are in conflict and an alliance will only drive votes to BJP.  A better idea is just like 2016 have an INC-Left Front alliance which could take some anti-AITC votes away from BJP.   In UP I think SP-BSP-RLD-INC alliance is generally not a good idea.  In such a case the INC upper caste base would defect to BJP just like in 2017.  A better idea are a partial tactical alliance where SP-BSP-RLD backed INC in the 4-5 seats where it is very strong and in the rest INC can run candidates with the understanding that they are Upper Caste candidates that takes votes from BJP.

            Seat   Vote
NDA      228     36%
UPA       224     41%
Others    91      23%



BJP would win 194 out of 228 seats INC would win 96 out of 224 UPA seats
Regional breakdown would be

             NDA     UPA      Others
North       57       86          8
West        85       31
East         61       60        21
South       25       47        62


The net result would be a NDA government with outside support from parties like AIADMK BJD TRS YSRCP.


Scenerio 3 is if UPA gets BSP SP AITC to join UPA, then BJP gets AIADMK and YRSRC to join NDA and as a result TDP joins UPA then it is

Comment:  In TN I still think the BJP brand is so toxic that AIADMK will stay away.  On the other hand the AIADMK has been so stamped with its de facto alliance with BJP that it might as well form an alliance since the anti-BJP vote has been lost to AIADMK long ago.   INC-TDP alliance in Telenagna is very likely especially now that TRS is showing its lean toward the BJP.  In AP other than historical conflict between TDP and INC is the risk that it provokes a YSRCP-BJP alliance.  Again the BJP brand fairly toxic in AP so that YSRCP will not risk it especially when the YRSCP brand is really not liked to BJP like AIADMK is.  I still think that the chances of a TDP-INC alliance in AP is pretty high with the chances of a YSRCP-BJP alliance significant but not as high.  

            Seat   Vote
NDA      255     41%
UPA       242     43%
Others    46      16%


BJP would win 196 out of 255 seats INC would win 97 out of 242 UPA seats
Regional breakdown would be

             NDA     UPA      Others
North       57       89          5
West        85       31
East         61       60        21
South       52       62        20


Again NDA most likely forms government with BJD and TRS support from the outside.




What is interesting is in all 3 scenarios I do not foresee Modi staying on  

[jaichind]

India today semi-annual "Mood of the nation poll" also has leadership ratings has Rahul Gandhi closing the gap

On Best PM it is (diff from Jan 2018)

Modi       49 (-4)
Gandhi    27 (+5)

with Gandhi making gains in urban areas in the North and South (and no much gains in East and West) 



Rahul is now expected to revive INC by a margin of 47-36 and viewed to be the leader of the anti-BJP forces by a margin of 46-35

[jaichind]

" RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha hints at alliance with RJD in Bihar, says milk from Yadavs, rice from Kushwahas makes good 'kheer'"
https://www.firstpost.com/india/rlsp-chief-upendra-kushwaha-hints-at-alliance-with-rjd-in-bihar-says-milk-from-yadavs-rice-from-kushwahas-makes-good-kheer-5047971.html

In Bihar seems that RLSP is in the final stages of going over to UPA from NDA. 

The reasons are clearly the same reasons I predicted this will take place months ago.

https://www.telegraphindia.com/states/odisha/nda-not-in-a-tizzy-over-kushwaha-254813

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Where within NDA seat talks there are not enough seats to go around and it is clear that RLSP will get sacrificed.  This latest RLSP move seems to be a last gambit to get its fair share which most likely not get the result it wanted and then RLSP will migrate to UPA.

Now that the Bihar by-elections have shown that RJD-INC would be competitive with JD(U)-BJP in 2019 there will be a significant seat sharing problem for the JD(U)-BJP alliance.  In many ways game theory would indicate it is inevitable that RLSP will leave JD(U)-BJP to join RJD-INC alliance soon.

[jaichind]

Karnataka municipal election results mostly out.  INC and JD(S) ran separately despite their coalition government at the state level. 

Mostly a tie between INC and BJP with JD(S) in a distant third which replicates the assembly election results from a few months ago.  JD(S) and INC will form alliances in urban local bodies where no party has a majority.



Overall INC slightly edged out BJP despite BJP being stronger in urban areas.  It seems that the INC-JD(S) coalition government has not driven away any INC nor JD(S) vote base toward BJP as BJP had hoped.

[jaichind]

Ongoing talks in NDA seat sharing in Bihar.

BJP is offering

I think LJP is really 5 since the last seat has to go to RLSP rebel Arun Kumar and his RSM

If JD(U) gets its way of even split between BJP and JD(U) the compromise might be


JD(U) is pushing for kicking out RLSP which could simplify matters


One last way is where BJP and JD(U) split 50/50 but BJP then works with RLSP to share seats out of its quota an JD(U) does the same with LJP.  JD(U) is very negative on RLSP but is friendly with LJP while BJP seems to want to keep RLSP as an OBC counterweight to JD(U).  This model most likely will not work since JD(U) will point out that LJP has a larger footprint than RLSP so this formula is BJP getting more seats than JD(U) by another name.


BJP seems to be offering JD(U) seat allocations in UP and Jharkhand to make up for JD(U) having less seats in Bihar.  JD(U) seems to reject this saying that seats it will get in UP and Jharkhand are unlikely to be winnable as BJP incumbents are already aplenty in both states and BJP is likely to lose ground in both states in 2019 leaving JD(U) trying to win in seats that even the BJP could not win in 2014 let alone 2019.

[jaichind]

Telangana CM TRS KCR (Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao) dissolved the Telangan assembly for an election in Nov 2018 at the same time as MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

It seems what KCR is up to to separate the LS and the assembly elections.  He wants to form a de facto alliance with the BJP but the BJP brand in Telangana is fairly negative so that if the LS and assembly election were held at the same time in the Spring 2019 then INC-TDP would run against Modi/BJP and tie TRS to BJP even if there is no pre-poll alliance between TRS and BJP.  But if the elections were separated then KCR can run an assembly election on local issues against the likely INC-TDP alliance.

[jaichind]

Pollster Axis My India came out with a what seems to be a tracking poll called "Political Stock Exchange" that will focus on the mood in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

This week they have

MP -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 41/40
Rajasthan -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 32/48
Chhattisgarh -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 39/34

In India pre-election polls tend to have a pro-incumbent bias.  These numbers seems to indicate that the BJP will be blown out in Rajasthan by INC, will most likely lose narrowly in MP to INC, but will be neck-to-neck in Chhattisgarh with INC.

[jaichind]

In Telengana, INC TDP (led by Chandrababu Naidu) and CPI will form a grand alliance to take on TRS (led by KCR) which was expected but still a huge development since TDP was formed back in 1982 as an anti-INC party.  CPM and JS will from a block, BJP will contest separately as well YSRCP and AIMIM will contest in the heavy Muslim areas.  Most likely other than AIMIM willing in his strongholds and BJP doing well in the few seats which are BJP stronghold there will be polarization between INC-TDP-CPI and TRS.

The history of alliances in TP/Telengana also shows how the players over the years have flip-flopped over the years.

1980 LS (INC + Naidu(INC) + KCR(INC)) vs JNP (which contains proto-BJP) vs JNP(S)
1983 Assembly (INC + Naidu(INC)) vs (TDP + KCR(TDP) + BJP + Left)
1984 LS, 1985 Assembly, 1989 LS, 1989 assembly   INC vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + KCR(TDP) + BJP + Left)
1991 LS, 1994 Assembly, 1996 LS INC vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + KCR(TDP) + Left) vs BJP
1998 LS INC vs (TDP(Naidu) + KCR(TDP) + Left) vs (BJP + NTRTDP)
1999 LS, 1999 Assembly INC vs (TDP(Naidu) + KCR(TDP)  + BJP) vs Left
2004 LS, 2004 Assembly (INC + TRS(KCR) + Left) vs (TDP(Naidu) + BJP)
2009 LS, 2009 Assembly (INC + Jaganmohan Reddy(INC)) vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + TRS(KCR) + Left) vs  (PRP+ Pawan Kalyan(PRP)) vs BJP [right before the vote count TRS(KCR) defected to join BJP camp but left right after the counted results showed that BJP lost the general election]
2014 LS 2014 Assembly (INC + Left) vs (TDP(Naidu) + BJP) vs YSRCP (Jaganmohan Reddy) vs TRS(KCR)

Now we will have in Telengana
2018 Assembly (INC + TDP(Naidu) + CPI) vs TRS(KCR) vs  BJP vs YSRCP (Jaganmohan Reddy) vs (Pawan Kalyan(JS) + CPM)

In AP next year I suspect it will be the same but without TRS in the fray.  It is possible that in the LS elections in Telengana next year TRS and BJP will form an alliance.

So pretty other than BJP and INC cannot be on the same side, everyone has been allies and enemies of each other.

[jaichind]

In a blow to INC hopes for an alliance with BSP in MP and Chhattisgarh (most likely INC does not need an alliance with BSP to win in Rajasthan), BSP seems to have committed to going it alone in MP and going into an alliance with INC rebel Ajit Jogi led CJC.  In  Chhattisgarh  it seems that CJC will contest 55 seats with BSP contesting 35 seats out of the 90 seats.

BSP could be decisive in MP and Chhattisgarh which is why this is such a blow for INC.  On paper the greater damage is in Chhattisgarh where the CJC-BSP sealed off any chance of CJC merging back into INC as well as a INC-BSP alliance although INC in theory is in place to potentially defeat BJP even without an alliance with BSP.  The wildcard would be if CJC pulls in more support from INC or BJP.

In MP INC-BSP alliance fell apart, for now, due to to the number of seats the INC was willing to part with.  Part of it is due to the surge in MP of various Upper Caste and OBC castist organizations is various parts of MP.  Part of INC's thinking is that if it yields too much ground to BSP these organizations would be driven into the arms of the BJP.

[jaichind]

It time to focus in on the electoral history of key states come up later in the year.  A good one to start with is Rajasthan.

Rajasthan is in Northern India and is historically dominated by local princes and different ties of landowners below them.    Historically Rajasthan tends to vote with similar patterns as other Northern Indian states but is much more elastic than the rest of Northern India.


A survey of LS election results from 1967-1980 would show this level of volatility.  

1967 was the first year that Rajasthan politics became competitive when INC right win splinter SWA(Swatantra) was able to gain traction allied with BJS (proto-BJP) to capture a good amount of former prince/landowner class support and overtake INC in terms of vote share and seats.

Rajasthan 1967 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         23                10               40.27%

SWA+       23                13                43.57% (BJS was part of SWA+)

BJS rebel                        0                 1.79%

SSP+         8                  0                 5.44% (CPI CPM PSP were part of SSP+)

The assembly election held the same time held INC below an absolute majority but INC was able to form a government by pulling in various independents.


The INC split of 1969 had the anti-Indira Gandhi INC(O) split out of INC but with SWA and BJS already established as a strong anti-INC bloc INC(O) was not able to gain much traction.    For the 1971 LS election saw Indira Gandhi turn against the former princely class but her radical agenda pulled in support from the lower classes to pull her to a landslide victory in India and a medium size victory in Rajasthan.  SSP joined up with SWA+ which had partial alliance with INC(O) and BKD (small landowner Centrist INC splinter) but it was not able to stop the Indira wave even if it contained. it.

Rajasthan 1971 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           23                14               50.35%

SWA+       21                  9               37.73%  (BJS and SSP were part of SWA+)

INC(O)       4                  0                1.65%  (partial alliance with SWA+)
 
BKD           8                  0                3.86%  (partial alliance with SWA+)

CPM+         4                  0               1.15%  (CPI was part of CPM+)


The 1972 Rajasthan assembly election saw a BJS and SWA split which paved the way for an INC landslide.   Then INC all Northern Indian non-Communist anti-INC parties (BJS SWA BKD INC(O) SSP PSP) unite and then merged into one party, JNP, as a result of the 1975-1977 emergency.  The 1977 LS elections saw INC crushed in Northern India which was also the case in Rajasthan as JNP captured national power.

Rajasthan 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            25                1                 30.56%

JNP            25              24                 65.21%

CPI+           5                0                   0.86%  (CPM was part of CPI+)
 

Right after the 1977 JNP LS election new Rajasthan assembly elections were called with JNP winning in a landslide repeating the 1977 LS election.  As a result the first non-INC Rajasthan CM was installed which was Bhairon Singh Shekhawat who has a BJS background.


After JNP came into power it began to splinter which led up to the 1979 split of JNP where the old BKD SSP and PSP parts of JNP split out to form JNP(S) which brought down the JNP government and leading to the 1980 LS elections.   INC(U) split from INC and allied with JNP(S).  Indira Gandhi INC won 1980 in a landslide over a splintered anti-INC vote and came back to power at the center.  INC support in 1980 is not that different from 1967 LS but because the anti-INC vote was more evenly split between JNP and JNP(S) in 1980 the INC won a large landslide victory.

Rajasthan 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                18                42.64%

JNP           25                  4                31.65% (mostly the old BJS and SWA vote)

JNP(S)+    25                  3                18.16% (INC(U) CPI CPM were part of JNP(S)+)

After coming back to power at the center INC called early assembly elections for  Rajasthan.  In the meantime JNP further split as the BJP and most of the SWA parts of JNP split out to form BJP leaving the JNP with mostly the old INC(O) vote.  In the 3 way split of the anti-INC vote INC won a landslide victory in the assembly elections and came back to power ending the first non-INC Rajasthan government under Shekhawat.

[jaichind]

After the INC restoration in 1980 things started to go downhill for INC, especially in Southern India.  Then the 1984 assassination of Indira Gandhi became a game changer, especially in the North, which turned into a pro-INC wave and landslide.    In Rajasthan the same took place which was made worse by the continued 3 way split of the anti-INC parties (BJP, JNP and LD [JNP(S) renamed itself LD])

Rajasthan 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                25               52.72%

INC(J)        6                  0                 1.11%  (INC(J) was an INC splinter)

BJP           24                 0                23.69%

LD+          17                 0                11.56% (CPI was part of LD+)

JNP+         18                 0                 4.50% (CPM was part of JNP+)


The INC wave continued in the 1985 Rajasthan assembly elections but this time the opposition learned its lesson.  BJP and LD formed an alliance and had tactical alliances with JNP.  As a result the INC still won but a landslide was avoided.

Rajasthan 1985 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          199               113               46.57%

INC rebel                          3                2.24%

BJP+        180                 71              35.20% (LD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                          1                1.34%
LD rebel                           1                0.36%

JNP+          37                10               6.64% (JNP+ had tactical alliances with BJP+ and CPI)

CPI            47                  1                1.23%

CPM          18                   0                0.58%

Despite a very large vote share for INC the opposition was able to mitigate the INC advantage by forming alliances on a seat by seat basis and reduced the INC advantage.  This would prove to be a harbinger for the 1989 elections.

[jaichind]

After the INC victories of 1984 and 1985 things went downhill for INC.  A series of corruption scandals plus a bunch of bungled steps to humor Hindu nationalist as well as the Muslims left INC losing support as well as an anti-Rajiv Gandhi splinter leaving INC and merge with JNP and LD to form JD.  For 1989 LS elections JD hand an alliance with CPM/CPI and had tactical alliances with BJP to sweep INC out of Northern India and led to a JD led minority government.  In Rajasthan  a huge swing against INC plus a successful set of tactical alliances between JD and BJP led to a landslide defeat of INC.

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 0               36.98%

INC rebel                       0                 0.68%

BJP          17                13               29.64% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+         15                12               27.91% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)



BJP supported national JD+ minority government from the outside.  In the 1990 assembly election this same alliance somewhat held but less effectively between BJP and JD+ and led to a INC defeat but not as serious as the 1989 LS elections.

Rajasthan 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200                50               33.64%

INC rebel                         2                 1.97%

BJP+        153               89                28.65%

BJP rebel                        2                  1.14%

JD+         138               56                23.60%

JD reblel                        0                  0.25%

CPM+        63                0                  1.85%

BSP           57                0                  0.79%

No party received a majority but since the BJP emerged as the largest party and given the partial alliance pact BJP had with JD, BJP's Shekhawat who was CM in 1977-1980 returned as BJP CM with outside support of JD.

[jaichind]

By late 1990 the JNP minority government at the center was clearly in trouble with BJP planning to pull out over the Ayodhya temple issue.  JD struck first in Rajasthan  by pulling support from the BJP government of CM Shekhawat.    But Shekhawat struck first by organizing a split in in JD with a JD faction splitting off from JD and backing the BJP government.  At the national level JD(S) split from JD and formed a government with outside support from the INC.  This did not last long and mid-term LS elections were called in 1991.  Right in the middle of the election campaign INC leader former PM Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by Sri Lanka Tamil extremists.   This had a large effect on the election as voting that took place after the assassination clearly shifted toward the INC in a sympathy wave.  In Rajasthan some seats voted before the assassination and some afterwards.  The INC were most likely going to be beaten by the BJP in Rajasthan as the Ayodhya  issue polarized the INC upper caste base to shift to INC.    The assassination sympathy wave drew INC to a tie.

Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                13              43.97%

BJP           25                12               40.88%

JD+          24                  0                6.96% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        21                  0               3.24%


The INC was returned to power at the national level following short of an absolute majority by a few seats.  In Rajasthan the BJP government continued with the support of the pro-BJP JD faction.  The destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu nationalist activist in Dec 1992 led the INC government to dismiss the BJP government in Rajasthan and call new elections.  The INC had expected to win the election counting on the old JD vote base to mostly return to INC.  Instead BJP managed to emerge at the largest party.

Rajasthan 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          199                76               38.27%

INC rebel                       11                 4.13%

BJP+       199                97                39.27%

BJP rebel                        6                  2.82%

JD+         165                 9                  8.79% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

BSP           50                 0                  0.56%

INC was partly sunk by the large number of INC rebels but the BJP had a significant rebel problem of their own.   INC tried to get JD to back a INC government, but in the end Shekhawat was able to form a BJP government by pulling in various INC and BJP rebels to join up with him.  Once again, just like 1990,  Shekhawat outmaneuvered his INC and JD enemies.

[jaichind]

One interesting What If in Indian election and political history has always been "What would have taken place in the 1991 LS election if Rajiv Gandhi was not assassinated."    Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in the middle of the multi-stage voting.  It was clear that the sympathy wave  propelled the INC to victory with a near absolute majority.  What was not clear was to what extent this helped.  Rajasthan was a place where we were able to observe its effect.  16 Rajasthan LS seats voted before Rajiv Gandhi's assassination and 9  Rajasthan LS seats voted after.

So if we look at how the vote went in these 16 and 9 seats between 1989 and 1991 we can sort of map out the size of the pro-INC sympathy wave.  

In the 16 seats that voted before the assassination we can look at the 1989 and 1991 results

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                 0               36.99%

INC rebel                       0                 0.44%

BJP           10                7                25.12% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+          11                9                31.07% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)


Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                 6               40.56%

BJP           16                10               41.52%

JD+          16                  0                8.93% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        13                  0               3.87%





Then we can look at the 9 seats that voted after the assassination and compare 1989 and 1991

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             9                 0               36.97%

INC rebel                       0                 1.15%

BJP             7                6                38.23% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+            4                3                19.82% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)


Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             9                 7               49.70%

BJP             9                 2               39.81%

JD+            8                 0                3.67% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)          8                 0                2.18%


The data is pretty clear.  In the 16 seats that voted before the assassination the BJP is relatively weaker than JD in 1989.  But in 1991 BJP gained an upper hand over INC.  In the 9 seats that voted after the assassination the BJP was relatively stronger than JD in 1989.  As it is due to the sympathy wave INC won most these 9 seats by a large margin.  But it seems that if we used the 16 seats that voted before the assassination to calibrate the expected results in the remaining 9 seats if there had not been an assassination then the BJP would have most likely swept these 9 seats.  

And if we view Rajasthan as an very elastic version of how Northern India would voted we can conclude that if there had been no assassination of Rajiv Gandhi then the 1991 LS election then most likely there would have been a hung parliament with with a very small if any edge over BJP versus a near absolute majority by INC.

At the national level, out of the 180 seats that voted before the assassination INC and allies won 39 of them vs 45 in 1991.  Out of the 354 seats that voted after the assassination INC and allies won 221 vs 170 in 1991.  

[jaichind]

After the Rajasthan 1993 assembly election the next trial of strength was the 1996 LS elections.  INC was on the back foot with anti-incumbency running high at the national level plus pro-Gandhi clan splinter AIIC(T) splitting the INC vote.  But in Rajasthan it has already been 6 years since the BJP has been in charge and anti-incumbency against the BJP was also rising.  The result in Rajasthan was a draw despite the AIIC(T) split.

Rajasthan 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                12              40.51%

INC rebel                        0                0.99%

AIIC(T)     17                  1                3.58%  (INC splinter)

BJP          25                 12              42.36%

JD+         17                   0                3.86% (SAP and CPI were part of JD+)

BSP         13                   0                1.35%

CPM          1                   0                0.44%

This election finished off JD as a relevant force and made Rajasthan a bipolar state.  At the national level the INC was ousted and a JD+ government was formed with outside support of INC to block BJP.

The JD+ government at the national level was not stable due to the fact that in many states INC was the rival of JD and as a result it did not last long paving the way for 1998 mid-term elections.  INC was blamed for the mid-term elections and seems doomed until Sonia Gandhi came in to campaign for INC and prevent a complete INC meltdown.  In Rajasthan the Sonia Gandhi factor plus 8 years of anti-incumbency for the BJP state government led to a shocking INC victory.  

Rajasthan 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            25               18               44.45%

INC rebel                        1                 2.07%

AIIC(S)        1                1                  1.92%  (INC splinter)

BJP            25                5                41.65%

BJP rebel                       0                  1.14%

JD+           19                0                  3.59% (CPM was part of JD+)

BSP           22                0                  2.12%

CPI             5                 0                  0.62%

The scale of the INC victory in Rajasthan was a shock and showed the scale of discontent at the Shekhawat BJP government.  At the national level the election was mostly a draw but BJP grew at the expense of JD.  TDP defected from the JD camp to support the BJP to form a BJP led goverment at the center.  Given the scale of defeat in Rajasthan in 1998 LS elections it was not a surprise that the assembly elections later in the year delivered a significant victory to INC.  

Rajasthan 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               153               44.95%

INC rebel                         4                 4.84%

BJP+        200                33               33.79%  (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                         3                 3.47%

JD+           73                  3                 2.40%

BSP         108                  2                  2.17%

CPM          14                   1                 0.81%

RJD          18                   1                 0.28%

The INC landslide victory was organized its young leader Ashok Gehlot who then became CM.



In 1999 the AIADMK defected from the BJP camp and brought down the BJP government at the center.  As a result another midterm election was called.  JD split between a pro-BJP JD(U) and an anti-BJP JD(S).  The election went strongly in favor of the BJP due to the nature of how the BJP Vajpayee government was brought down in a positive vote for Vajpayee,   In Rajasthan where the honeymoon period for the new INC government should have delivered the INC a victory the removal of the burden of anti-BJP incumbency at the local level plus the Vajpayee  brand brought in a BJP victory in a reversal of the results in 1998.

Rajasthan 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 9               45.12%

BJP+         25               16               48.82% (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                0.44%

BSP           16                 0                2.76%

CPM            1                 0                0.49%

CPI             4                 0                0.42%

In addition to the pro-Vajpayee vote the JD mostly going over to JD(U) who then allied with BJP also aided the BJP victory in a even more polarized election.

[jaichind]

The INC government in Rajasthan led by Gehlot continued until the assembly elections in 2003.  Despite a fairly good record anti-incumbency was building up and INC was defeated in 2003.  

Rajasthan 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               56               35.65%

INC rebel                        7                 4.47%

NCP           58                 0                 0.64%  (INC splinter)

BJP+        200             122               39.87%  (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        6                 1.91%

RSNN        65                  1                2.23% (Upper Caste party, BJP splinter)

INLD         50                  4                2.58% (Haryana based party, strong with Jats)

BSP         124                  2                3.97%  

CPM           18                 1                0.77%

LJP            36                  1                0.37% (JD(U) Dalit based splinter)

SP             63                  0                0.87%



INC was hit by significant rebellion but BJP also had its share of splinters and rebels and in the end BJP won easily helped by its alliance with JD(U).    Former BJP CM Shekhawat was already elected Vice President of India in 2002 so the BJP CM now is Vasundhara Raje who comes from a prominent pro-BJP princely royal family even though a branch of this royal family is pro-INC which includes her nephew Madhavrao Scindia who is one of the top INC leaders in MP.



Buoyed by assembly election victories in  Rajasthan  as well as MP and New Delhi the BJP called early LS elections in 2004 and was unexpectedly defeat by Sonia Gandhi's INC.  In  Rajasthan the BJP government was in its honeymoon period and the BJP won by a wide margin in the LS elections in a fairly polerlized election.

Rajasthan 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 4               41.42%

BJP           25                21               49.01%

BSP           24                0                 3.16%

[jaichind]

The BJP goverment of Raje lasted until 2008 when the next round of assembly elections came around.  The same anti-incumbency that hit Gehlot  in 2003 now hit Raje when the BJP was defeated by the INC  although INC failed to win an absolute majority on its own.

Rajasthan 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               96               36.82%

INC rebel                        7                 4.03%

BJP+        199              79                35.08% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                       6                  3.02%

BJS           54                 0                 0.45% (BJP splinter party)

JD(U)          4                1                  0.45%

BSP         199                6                  7.60%

CPM          34                3                  1.62%

LSP           20                1                  0.88%

SP             64                1                 0.76%



Both INC and BJP were hit by rebellions but the INC came out ahead.  INC was able to form a government by taking in some INC and BJP rebels as well as split BSP where a majority of BSP MLAs went over to INC.    After some internal discussion INC brought back Gehlot as INC CM after the election.

2009 LS elections came at the heels of a crisis where INC PM Manmohan Singh was able to stare down Left front over the nuclear power deal with USA.  As a result there was a wave for INC which was especially large in Rajasthan given the honeymoon period for the new INC government.  

Rajasthan 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                20               47.19%

INC rebel                        0                 2.46%

BJP           25                  4               36.57%

BJP rebel                        1                 3.29%

BSP          24                  0                 3.37%

CPM           3                  0                 1.26%

[jaichind]

By the time the 2013 Rajasthan assembly election came around INC was in huge trouble.  Plagued by scandals and surging inflation the INC government at the center was becoming very unpopular.  Add to that the anti-incumbency at the  Rajasthan INC government the result was a BJP landslide victory despite significant number of BJP rebels and various BJP splinter parties.

Rajasthan 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               21               33.07%

INC rebel                        0                 1.69%

BJP          200             163               45.17%

BJP rebel                       6                  2.21%

NPP         134                4                  4.25% (in theory NCP splinter, de facto BJP splinter)

NUZP        25                 2                 1.01% (represents landowners, de facto BJP splinter)

BSP         195                3                 3.37%

BSP rebel                      1                 0.35%

CPM         36                 0                 0.87%


 
The result was that Raje was made the CM again with a BJP government.  The anti-INC tide continued with the Modi wave in 2014 LS which merely consolidated all the anti-INC vote into a massive landslide not seen since 1984.

Rajasthan 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 0               30.73%

INC rebel                       0                 0.65%

BJP           25               25               55.61%

BJP rebel                       0                2.80%

NPP           4                  0                 1.21% (in theory NCP splinter, de facto BJP splinter)

NUZP         3                  0                0.47%  (represents landowners, de facto BJP splinter)

BSP         23                  0                 2.37%

BSP rebel                      0                 0.77%

APP         22                  0                 1.02%

[jaichind]

The main takeaway from Rajasthan last few election cycles are:
a) INC and BJP alternate in power every assembly election
b) The LS election right after the assembly election is an exaggerated version of the assembly election result
c) The first and only time the Rajasthan assembly was held with double anti-incumbency against the non-INC party  (both the Rajasthan  and national ruling party are non-INC) is in 1998 when BJP was the ruling party at both Rajasthan and at the center, the BJP was crushed.

So 2018 most likely will see a significant defeat for BJP and more likely than not see INC win the LS election despite Modi's clear popularity.  

Main risk to INC is the rivalry between two time INC CM Gehlot and new INC youth leader Sachin Pilot


Pilot is close to Rahul Gandhi and there have been signs that INC high command is having problems getting both the Gehlot and Pilot factions to get behind a common campaign.  INC high command is going to punt this problem by not projecting either as CM candidate and deal with this problem after the election.  All things equal it seems Gehlot has the upper hand.

[jaichind]

Election schedule for Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana in Nov-Dec 2018 announced.

[jaichind]

ABP poll has INC marginally ahead in MP and Chhattisgarh and significantly ahead in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan
         Vote share   Seats
INC       50%          142
BJP       34%            56
Other    16%             2

Frankly, if the INC-BJP vote share lead is 14% then BJP will be lucky to cross 30 seats given how uniform and elastic Rajasthan swings has historically been.   We are likely to see a INC victory on the scale of 1998.


MP
         Vote share   Seats
INC      42.2%        122
BJP      41.5%        108
Other   16.3%           0

Usually these pre-election polls have a pro-incumbant bias.  It seems if this poll is accurate the scale of BJP defeat might be greater than what is indicated.



Chhattisgarh
         Vote share   Seats
INC      38.9%         47
BJP      38.6%         40
Other   22.5%           3

Like MP the scale of BJP's defeat might be underestimated given the pro-incumbent bias in pre-election polls.  But Chhattisgarh is a very inelastic state so that underestimation might be tiny.  It also seems that INC rebel and former INC CM Ajit Jogi's CJC alliance with BSP will win a good chunk of votes but will not win that many seats.  It also seems that CJC-BSP will pull from INC and BJP equally in a significant disappointment to BJP.  

[jaichind]

Times Now poll for MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh somewhat more positive for BJP

MP
        vote share seats  
BJP        44%      142
INC        35%       77
Others    21%       11

If these vote shares are true then INC will be below 50 seats for sure.



Chhattisgarh
        vote share seats  
BJP        47%        47
INC        33%       33
Others    21%       10


Again, if these were the vote shares then INC would be reduced to below 20 seats.



Rajasthan
        vote share seats  
BJP        41%        75
INC        46%      115
Others    12%       10

Here the vote share and set share seems to jive.



Same poll has BJP winning 43 LS seats to INC 22 in these 3 states.  Back in 2014 it was BJP 62 INC 3.

[jaichind]

ABP News-CVoter has a national poll for LS elections.  It has NDA winning a narrow majority based on current allianes

        vote share    seat share
NDA     38%             276
UPA      25%            115
Others  37%            155



Breakdown by region/states are

State/region     NDA    UPA      Others
UP                     36       2         42        (Assume SP-BSP alliance but not with INC)
Bihar                  31       9          0        (Assume LJP RLSP stay in NDA)
MP                     23       6          0
Chhattisgarh        9        2          0
Rajasthan          18        6          0       (  Rajasthan has 25 and not 24 seats)
Maharashtra       36      12          0       (Assume BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP)
Odisha               13        2          6
North-East          18       6          1
Punjab                 1      12         0
Haryana              6        3          1
Delhi                   7        0          0
South India        21      31         76    (Kerala, TN , AP, Karnataka)

It has some scenarios for different key states.

For UP: 

If it is SP-BSP-INC vs BJP then it is SP-BSP-INC 56 NDA 24


If BSP contests alone then it is NDA 70 USA 2 Others[SP, BSP] 8


If it is SP-BSP vs BJP vs INC then it is NDA 36 UPA 2 SP-BSP 42
 


For Bihar

If RLSP and LJP join UPA then it is NDA 22 UPA 18


If RLSP and LJP stay in NDA then it is NDA 31 UPA 9




Maharashtra

If it is INC-NCP vs BJP vs SHS then it is NDA 16 UPA 30 SHS 2


If it is INC-NCP vs BHP-SHS then it is NDA 36 UPA 12


If it is a 4 way battle INC vs NCP vs BJP vs SHS then it is BJP 22 INC 11 NCP 8 SHS 7

[jaichind]

The next states(s) to look at are MP/Chhattisgarh.  Chhattisgarh was a part of MP until 2000.  This greater MP was a large state in India.  



Then in 2000 the eastern Tribal heavy part of MP was broken off as Chhattisgarh given complaints that the resource rich but tribal heavy Chhattisgarh had its resources shifted to the benefit of the Caste Hindu heavy Western MP which continued on as MP.


Since the political dynamic between what became MP and Chhattisgarh are different given the high percentage of tribals (at least 1/3 of the population and most likely more) I will report the electoral history using the modern boundaries with the understanding that before 2000 both MP and Chhattisgarh were part of one state.

MP very early one was a INC vs BJS (proto-BJP) state where the Upper Castes and various Princes were supportive of BJS Hindu nationalist appeal.  INC has the upper hand as the anti-INC vote was often split up to and including 1967.  In Chhattisgarh  INC's domination is more complete given the fact that tribal vote heavily for INC.  1967 is a good place to start to see this.

1967 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            27               16               40.10%

INC rebel                        0                 1.44%

BJS+          27              10               33.13%

BJS rebel                        0                0.95%

SWA            2                 1                3.62%  (has tactical alliance with BJS+)

PSP+         22                 0                9.94% (SSP was part of PSP+)

RPI             6                 0                2.03%

CPI            6                  0                2.65%


1967 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                 8               42.94%

INC rebel                       1                 3.47%

JAC             3                 0                 6.12% (INC splinter)

BJS+        10                  1              26.94%

PSP+          9                 0               10.95%

CPI             1                 0                2.06%

INC won a narrow victory over BJS+ in MP mostly due to the fact that the PSP+ bloc took a good chunk of the anti-INC vote.  In Chhattisgarh despite significant INC rebellion, INC won a large victory over BJS+ due to the tribal vote for INC.

In the assembly election of 1967 of combined MP, INC won a tiny majority which due to defections and counter-defections led to several unstable INC or anti-INC grand alliance governments.