India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana
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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana  (Read 46042 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #300 on: October 30, 2018, 08:14:04 AM »
« edited: November 22, 2018, 12:24:00 PM by jaichind »

After the 1980 LS election the opposition further splintered with BJP splitting out from JNP.  Also JNP(S) renamed itself LKD while INC(U) became ICS.  The fragmentation of the opposition mean that in a strong INC state of AP/Telangana INC was seen as invincible.  Indira Gandhi, remembering the bitter past of INC splits in 1969 and 1978 worked to make sure that no INC CM can become a mass leader and be a focal point of a future anti-Indira Gandhi rebellion.  She had a quick succession of CMs for AP./Telangana to ensure no one can rise to have mass support.

In the meantime famous Telegu super actor NTR Rao (more known as NTR) was hoping to move into politics inspired by TN superstar MGR.  He asked INC to nominate him to the Upper House RS which INC refused.


In anger NTR formed a regional party TDP in early 1983 based on Telegu regional identify and focused on the "insulting" way INC has treat the Telegu speaking AP/Telangana.  NTR's son in law was a young and upcoming INC political superstar N. Chandrababu Naidu who stayed on with INC and refused to support his father-in-laws's new party feeling that INC will sweep to power once again.


The result was a shocking victory for TDP which did especially well in the now AP part of the state while in Telangana it was splinted.   INC had mass rebellion as always but TDP consolidated, especially in AP, the anti-INC vote.

1983 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           187              17             32.24%

INC rebel                       5               3.60%

TDP+        186            162             55.37%

CPI+          37                1              2.73% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JNP+         51                 0             1.99% (LKD was part of JNP+)

INC(J)+     62                1              0.92% (INC(J) was an INC splinter, ICS was part of INC(J)+)

BJP            37               1               1.04%


1983 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC         107                43             36.09%

INC rebel                        2               2.98%

TDP+      105                44             33.11%

CPI+        36                  9               8.67% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JNP+        41                  1              4.60% (LKD was part of JNP+)

BJP          43                  2               5.99%

CPI(ML)     1                   1              0.26%

AIMIM      14                  5              3.69%

The TDP smashing win was a shock especially in the AP region.  NTR swept in as the new CM.  Chandrababu Naidu who lost his seat quickly defected to his father-in-law's TDP.  

The INC did not accept defeat in one of its core states and kept on coming up with schemes to come back to power. NTR had its own schemes and in early 1984 actually staged what was later know to be a fake assassination attempt on NTR to gain sympathy.  The in mid 1984 while NTR was in the USA for a surgery INC create a split in the TDP where a tiny TDP faction came over the formed the government with INC support without a majority.  NTR rushed back to AP and a a massive Opposition protest movement took place and under pressure INC had to allow NTR back to the CM seat.  Former INC superstar and now key NTR sidekick as well as son-in-law Chandrababu Naidu was critical in beating back this INC attempt to grab power from NTR.  All this coup attempt did was to consolidate the various non-TDP opposition into an alliance with TDP.  

Then in late 1984 Indira Gandhi was assassinated and early LS election came. While INC swept all of Northern India based in the sympathy wave  TDP allied with most of the anti-INC parties won in AP/Telangana.

1984 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                 2             41.71%

TDP+        26               24              56.13% (ICS was part of TDP+)


1984 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          16                4              41.97%

TDP+          16              10             44.48% (CPI BJP JNP were part of TDP+)

CPM+          3                 1               5.70%

AIMIM         2                 0               3.08%

Just like the assembly elections INC was stronger in more splinted Telangana than AP. where TDP dominates.

After the 1984 LS election victory NTR had national ambitions.  To consolidate his position as CM before making a move nationally he called an early assembly election in 1985 which TDP won by gaining ground in Telangana (where even CPM came aboard TDP+) while losing ground in AP.

1985 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          187             37              39.85%

INC rebel                        0                2.10%

TDP+         187            150             55.34% (CPI CPM BJP JNP were part of TDP+)


1983 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        107               14             33.83%

INC rebel                        1               2.67%

TDP+        107               86             52.65%  (CPI CPM BJP JNP were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                        1              1.69%
BJP rebel                        0               0.48%
JNP rebel                        0               0.66%

CPI(ML)       1                 1              0.36%

AIMIM        10                4               3.28%

As NTR had hoped TDP came back to power with a large majority which formed the basis of NTR trying to form an anti-INC alliance at the national level for the next LS election.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #301 on: October 31, 2018, 07:32:07 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2018, 07:00:30 AM by jaichind »

After 1985, NTR continued on this project of helping to build a broad anti-INC alliance nationally.  In the meantime the INC government at the center ran into corruption trouble and an anti-Rajiv Gandhi faction split off and merged with JNP and LKD to form JD.  With NTR's help JD formed tactical alliance with BJP and Left Front in the 1989 LS election to defeat INC, mostly in Northern India.  Ironically, in AP/Telangana, due to anti-incumbency after 6 years of TDP government, NTR's TDP was defeated in both the LS elections as well as the assembly elections being held at the same time despite holding his grand alliance together that included JD BJP and Left Front.    

1989 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                24             52.91%

TDP+        26                  2             44.90% (BJP JD ICS were part of TDP+)


1989 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16               15              47.89%

TDP           16                0              40.53% (CPM CPI BJP JD were part of TDP+)

MCPI           3                0                0.92% (CPM splinter)

AIMIM         5                1                5.53%


1989 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          187            125             50.29%

INC rebel                         3               1.54%

TDP+         187              58             45.82% (CPI CPM BJP JD were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                        1               0.77%


1989 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        107               59             44.38%

INC rebel                        3               2.73%

TDP+       107               37             41.35% (CPI CPM BJP JD were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       1               1.20%
CPM rebel                      1               0.42%

CPI(ML)      2                 2               0.62%

AIMIM      25                  4               5.35%

So while NTR's project to defeat INC at the national level worked he was ousted as CM of AP/Telangana.
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jaichind
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« Reply #302 on: November 01, 2018, 07:14:22 AM »

Between 1989 to 1991 there was significant political realignment due to the rise of Dalit based BSP and polarization of the Upper Caste vote toward BJP due to the Ram temple issue.  Both trends hurt INC.  1991 LS elections were called after JD split and BJP withdrew support to the JD over the Ram Temple issue and quotas for OBC.  The BJP was headed to a strong performance to push INC to second place when the Rajiv Gandhi assassination took place and the sympathy wave brought INC back to power nationally.  In AP/Telangana BJP broke from the TDP bloc and ate into both the INC and TDP+ vote share.  Since part of the election here were held after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination the result in AP/Telangana in the LS election was a slight edge for INC.

1991 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                15             50.06%

TDP+        26                11             42.18% (ICS was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       0               0.52%

BJP          25                  0               4.61%


1991 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16               10              38.06%

TDP+        16                 4              31.09% (CPM CPI JD were part of TDP+)

CPM rebel                      0                1.11%

BJP           16                1              17.98%

AIMIM        1                 1               4.75%

The BJP surge really came in Telangana where the old BJS was always strong due to polarization around AIMIM and Hyderabad Muslims and would have been even bigger if it was not for the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.    At the national level INC was able to come back to power with a near absolute majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #303 on: November 01, 2018, 07:34:22 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2018, 07:38:47 AM by jaichind »

Just like Rajasthan, the Rajiv Gandhi assassination took place in the middle of the 1991 LS elections for AP/Telangana.  It would be interesting to look at the impact of the assassination by looking at for AP and Telangana 1989 and 1991 LS results for districts that voted before and voted after the assassination.

1989 AP  LS election for seats that voted before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           14                13             53.80%

TDP+        14                  1             44.51% (BJP was part of TDP+)


1991 AP  LS election for seats that voted before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           14                 4             47.61%

TDP          14                10             45.48%

BJP           14                 0              4.34%


1989 AP  LS election for seats that voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           12                11             51.78%

TDP+        12                  1             45.40% (JD and iCS were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       0               0.83%


1991 AP  LS election for seats that voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           12                11             53.06%

TDP+        12                  1             38.12% (ICS was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       0               1.17%

BJP           11                 0               4.95%

Here in AP we can clearly see that the Rajiv Gandhi assassination made a huge impact.  TDP was headed toward a victory here now that state level anti-incumbency was no longer weighting it down  but the  assassination  led to a huge iNC surge and gave it a vote share greater than even larger than its 1989 landslide victory.

1989 Telangana  LS election  for seats that voted before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            6                 6              50.03%

TDP+         6                 0              42.09% (CPM CPI were part of TDP+)

MCPI         1                  0               1.64%

AIMIM       1                  0               0.92%


1991 Telangana  LS election  for seats that voted before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            6                 4              42.65%

TDP+         6                 2              38.87% (CPM CPI were part of TDP+)

MCPI          1                 0               0.80%

BJP            6                 0              10.44%


1989 Telangana  LS election  for seats that voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                9              46.45%

TDP+        10                0              39.47% (CPI BJP JD were part of TDP+)

AIMIM        4                 1              8.63%


1991 Telangana  LS election  for seats that voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                6              34.95%

TDP+        10                2              25.82% (CPI JD were part of TDP+)

CPM rebel                     0               1.87%

BJP          10                1              23.09%

AIMIM       1                 1               7.98%

In Telangana the impact of the assassination was much more muted in favor of INC.  Of course the sections of Telangana that voted after the assassination were also the urban areas where there was a clear BJP surge cutting into both INC and TDP+ votes.  So if even after the assassination the BJP surge was so large here that INC lost more votes relative to 1989 than in Telangana districts that voted before the assassination shows the scale of the BJP and allows us to surmise that without the assassination the BJP could have won a significant number of seats verses it 1 it ended up with.
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jaichind
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« Reply #304 on: November 02, 2018, 08:54:57 AM »

After the INC victory in 1991 LS elections politics at the AP/Telangana state level with the INC government devolved back to the pattern of 1980-1983 with a revolving door of INC CM.  This pretty much wrote the script for TDP for the 1994 assembly election elections with the INC was facing double anti-incumbency.   The result was a massive landslide defeat for INC and to date the largest landslide election in AP/Telangana history.

1994 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           187             20              37.50%

INC rebel                       0                2.16%

TDP+        187            163             52.56% (CPI CPM were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       4               2.78%

BJP          176                0               1.61%

BSP         149                0               1.43%


1994 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC         107                6              27.88%

INC rebel                      4                4.86%

TDP+      107               91             49.68% (CPI CPM JD were part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                      1                2.02%

BJP         104                 3               7.62%

BSP          86                 0               1.14%

AIMIM      16                 1               1.83%

MBT           9                 2               1.29% (AIMIM splinter)

The BJP surge of 1991 has clearly subsided so most of the anti-INC vote send to TDP+ which then crushed the weakened INC.  NTR stormed back as CM and seems to be all ready to take the lead in the 1996 LS elections as a focal point of leading the anti-INC anti-BJP opposition alliance with AP/Telangana secure for him.  Dramatic events in 1995 will show this is not the case at all.
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jaichind
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« Reply #305 on: November 02, 2018, 09:00:25 AM »

INC and TDP seems to have reached a deal on seat sharing in their anti-TRS grand alliance in Telangana

It will be
INC  95
TDP  14
TJS (TRS Splinter), CPI, MBT (AIMIM splinter) 10


It also seems with TDP accommodating INC like this that a TDP-INC alliance in AP is now very likely (just like I predicted back in April) where INC will be expected to accommodate TDP and let TDP have the lion share of seats to take on YSRCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #306 on: November 02, 2018, 09:35:16 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2018, 12:09:26 PM by jaichind »

C-voter came out with a LS poll projection if LS elections were held now.  They estimate NDA vote share to be around 38% nationally.
They have several scenarios.

First is if SP-BSP does not from alliance in UP then it is easy NDA re-election
NDA    300
UPA     116
Others 127


If SP-BSP forms alliiance in UP then NDA will be held below majority and will need some combination pro-NDA parties like AIADMK, TRS, YSRCP and BJD to back NDA to form the government.
NDA     261
UPA     119
Others 163


In a the most pro-UPA scenario which is
a) TDP-INC alliance in AP in addition to Telangana
b) INC-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka
c) INC-NCP alliance in Maharashtra and no BJP-SHS alliance in Maharashtra
d) INC joins SP-BSP in UP  
In which case neither front can really form the government and perhaps UPA might have a slight edge
NDA    232
UPA     204
Others 107


In the most pro-NDA scenario which is
a) BJP-SHS alliance in Maharashtra
b) No SP-BSP alliance in UP
With the result being a fairly solid NDA majority
NDA    306
UPA     108
Others 129
 

Some of their state projections are interesting

Haryana
         Seats    Vote share
BJP      6             43.0%
INC     3              33.7%
INLD    1             19.5%
Not sure if this poll took into account of INLD-BSP alliance.  INLD numbers seem low here.   BJP support pretty high despite what I suspect are some anti-incumbency.  On the other hand  Haryana anti-incumbency tends to fairly low.  



Chhattisgarh
         Seats    Vote share
BJP     10             46.8%
INC      1             37.4%
JCC      0               4.9%
This poll seems to assume that Modi will allow BJP will punch way above its weight.  The 2018 Chhattisgarh assembly election will be neck-to-neck and one would think that it would be the same for the LS election.



Punjab
               Seats        Vote share
INC            12              42.7%
SAD-BJP       1              32.9%
AAP             0               19.6%
This poll result is a surprise.  I think AAP has sank much further since 2017 assembly elections.  Also enough time has passed since the 2017 INC assembly election victory for anti-incumbency to build up.  INC's support here seems too high.



Jharkhand
               Seats        Vote share
INC-JMM      7               42.7%
BJP-AJSU     6               40.5%
JVM             0                4.7%
These results seem reasonable.  Not sure why the poll did not look into what would take place if JVM were to join up with INC-JMM.  In theory INC-JMM-JVM plan to form an grand anti-BJP alliance for the 2019 LS election.



Assam
                      Seats        Vote share
BJP-AGP-BPF      9               45.2%
INC                   4               42.3%
AIUDF               1                3.7%
In theory these results seems reasonable.  But like Bihar I think BJP will find it hard to hold the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance together given the large number of BJP incumbents.   Also given the distribution of the AIUDF vote I am sure if its vote share was down to 3.7% then INC will win more than 4 seats.



Telengana
                      Seats        Vote share
INC-TDP-CPI      8               32.2%
TRS                  7                30.4%
BJP                   1               19.0%
AIMIM               1                3.9%
Seems to match CW on how the Telengana 2018 assembly will most likely turn out.  BJP vote share seems high but in theory plausible.  



Kerela
                           Seats        Vote share
INC-KEC(M)-MUL     16              40.4%
Left Front                 4               29.3%
BJP                          0               17.5%
I think this poll assumes that KEC(M) will return to the INC+ alliance given their large vote share lead over Left Front.  BJP vote share seems a bit high but plausible.  



Odisha
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          12              37.8%
BJD           6               33.3%
INC           3               26.5%
The INC has collapsed so much here that it can win 3 seats seems unlikely.   INC is overestimated here and BJD underestimated.   Unless BJD anti-incumbency is a lot larger then I thought.



Rajasthan
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          17              48.9%
INC           8               43.0%
Again it seems Modi will get BJP to punch above the way.  It is clear that BJP will be defeated in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly election and the LS election should be similar.  I think BJP is overestimated.


AP
             Seats        Vote share
YSRCP      20              41.3%
TDP           5               31.2%
BJP            0               11.3%
INC           0                9,3%
Most likey TDP-INC will from an alliance and TDP-INC will do better than 5 seats.  Still YSRCP will win in under that scenario as AP is fairly elastic and it is YSRCP's term to win.  



Gujarat
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          24              54.8%
INC           2               38.1%
Again, the 2017 Gujarat assembly election had BJP barely winning.  Modi, being the favorite son, will for sure have BJP punch above its weight.  Still the size of the BJP victory seems a bit higher than what is realistic.  



Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          18              44.3%
INC           7              36.6%
JD(S)         3             12.4%
Most likely INC-JD(S) will form an alliance and the result will be a draw between BJP and INC-JD(S)



MP
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          22              47.2%
INC           7              38.5%
Again, 2018 MP assembly election will most likely be neck-to-neck between BJP and INC.  The poll assumes Modi will have BJP punch above its weight.  Most likely BJP is overestimated.  



TN
             Seats        Vote share
DMK         29              43.6%
AIADMK      9              33.0%
BJP            0                9.5%
INC            0                2.3%
Most likely INC will form an alliance with DMK.  Also this poll assumes AIADMK splinter AMMK will totally bomb.  Perhaps but most likely AMMK is underestimated.   Also what about other new parties like Rajnikant's RMM and Kamal Hassan's outfit.  Not clear where is DMDK and PMK.  I have to assume MDMK is included as part of DMK.  It seems to me AMMK + RMM + Kamal Hassan + DMDK + PMK has to poll greater than 11.5%.  Perhaps they assume RMM is part of BJP alliance and Kamal Hassan is part of INC alliance.  But 2.3% for INC+Kamal Hassan seems too low.  The issue here is that DMK and AIADMK vote share seems to be overestimated and the result will most likely be more fractured OR these new parties all join different blocs led by AIADMK or DMK or AMMK.



Bihar
                                Seats        Vote share
BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLSP     34              47.7%
RJD-INC-NCP-RAM        6               35.3%
Most likely RLSP will defect to RJD+ bloc.  As a result NDA's victory will not be as large.



WB
             Seats        Vote share
AITC         32              41.2%
BJP            9              31.5%
Left Front   0              14.5%
INC            1                7.8%
Most likely INC will form a tactical alliance with either AITC or Left Front.  BJP vote share surge is shocking and most likely too high.



Maharashtra
             Seats        Vote share
BJP-BVA   23              37.8%
INC-SWP  14              28.5%
NCP          6               14.5%
SHS          5                7.8%
It is almost certain INC-NCP will form an alliance.  Most likely BJP-SHS will form an alliance as well which will get it the clear edge.  Only way INC and NCP does well is if they form an alliance and BJP-SHS does not.



UP
             Seats        Vote share
SP-BSP    44              44.7%
BJP         31              43.9%
INC           5                7.9%
These results seems reasonable.  Most likely INC will have a tactical alliance with SP-BSP in some but not all the seats.  SP-BSP could do a bit better under this likely scenario.
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« Reply #307 on: November 03, 2018, 07:37:47 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2018, 02:31:52 PM by jaichind »

After NTR's TDP returned to power in AP/Telangana in 1994, a coup led by NTR's chief lieutenant and son-in-law Chandrababu Naidu led to NTR's overthrow in 1995 from leadership of TDP and with that his CM position. What took place was that NTR's wife passed away in 1985 and in 1993 NTR re-married to a much younger women writer called Lakshmi Parvathi.  It was clear that after NTR's return to power that he was grooming his new wife Lakshmi Parvathi as his successor.  That was unacceptable to  Chandrababu Naidu  and other power centers (mostly other NTR's children) in TDP.  They colluded and led by Chandrababu Naidu got a large majority of TDP MLAs to back Chandrababu Naidu as TDP leader and CM ousting NTR.  Ironically the scale of TDP's victory in 1994 means that INC had so little MLAs that Chandrababu Naidu just needed a significant majority of TDP MLA to win the vote of no confidence without having to worry about INC working out some deal with NTR.

NTR, furious at how he was ousted, plotted his revenge.  He formed NTRTDP in early 1996 and had planned to lead it against TDP in the 1996 LS elections.   While most of the TDP MLAs went with Chandrababu Naidu many had expected a NTR led NTRTDP to damage TDP quite badly and could then swing the flow of defections back to NTR who might over eventually return to power either via TDP counter-defections or in the 1999 assembly elections.  Unfortunately for NTR the shock of the Chandrababu Naidu coup and him losing power had a severe impact on his health and he pass away in early 1996 leaving his wife Lakshmi Parvathi to lead NTRTDP.   Chandrababu Naidu  knowing that the NTR factor was still significant worked  to counter that by focusing on TDP being part of a National Front of non-BJP opposition parties to oust INC and hoped that the anti-INC vote will then consolidate around him.  Nationally INC was ousted from power but in AP/Telangana INC fought TDP+ to a draw as NTRTDP even without NTR drew significant votes away from TDP.

1996 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                14             41.95%

TDP+        26                12             40.83% (CPI CPM were part of TDP+)

NTRTDP     26                 0             12.39%

BJP+         25                 0              1.89% (SAP was part of BJP+)


1996 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                8              36.22%

TDP+        16                7              33.47% (CPM CPI were part of TDP+)

NTRTDP    16                0                8.06%

BJP+         16               0              11.42% (SAP was part of BJP+)

AIMIM        2                1                2.80%

MBT           1                0                0.64%

It seems clear had NTR lived TDP+ would have done poorly with NTRTDP doing better and INC gaining more seats from the TDP split.  

As it is TDP was key in the formation of a JD lead government at the center with outside INC support.  This became a problem for TDP since INC was it s main rival in AP/Telangana.  This and other tensions finally led to INC withdrawing support and early 1998 LS elections resulted.  INC looked it was going to get crushed and BJP win in a landslide nationally until Sonia Gandhi jump in to campaign for INC and pushed the BJP led bloc to below majority.  In AP/Telangana, BJP allied with NTRTDP to take on INC and TDP+ and turned this race into a 3 way battle, especially in Telangana.  

1998 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                18             42.64%

TDP+        26                  6             41.26% (CPI CPM were part of TDP+)

BJP+         26                 2              14.79% (NTRTDP was part of BJP+)


1998 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                4              32.42%

TDP+        16                9              34.00% (CPI CPM JD were part of TDP+)

BJP+         16                2              26.29% (NTRTDP was part of BJP+)

AIMIM         1                1               3.72%

INC actually gained due to this split in the anti-INC vote in AP while in Telangana where BJP is stronger the BJP alliance with NTRTDP help pull in BJP-INC marginal voters and helped TDP+ to do well.  After the 1998 LS elections where BJP led bloc was close to majority, Chandrababu Naidu pulled off another coup by going over to back BJP to form a government.   The alternative was various non-BJP non-INC opposition parities backing a INC government was a no go for TDP since INC was its main rival in AP/Telangana.  So a first ever BJP government at the center was installed in 1998 with TDP support.  NTRTDP which was already a weakened force after its disappointing performance in 1996 was left high and dry by the BJP and mostly disappeared into irrelevance with their support base mostly going back to TDP.
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« Reply #308 on: November 06, 2018, 10:46:38 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2018, 02:43:58 PM by jaichind »

After TDP joined up with BJP led NDA to form a government at the center the new NDA government fell after a year when AIADMK defected from NDA triggering the 1999 LS elections which was held at the same time as the AP/Telangana assembly elections.  CPI CPM of course stormed out of TDP led bloc and joined Anti-BJP TDP splinter ATDP ran in both races but went nowhere.  The pro-Vajpayee wave propelled the BJP to victory overall and the TDP-BJP alliance clicked in AP/Telangana taking them to victory over INC.

1999 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                 3              41.98%

TDP+        26                23             51.92% (BJP was part of TDP+)

ATDP+      19                 0               1.77% (CPI CPM were part of ATDP+)


1999 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                2              40.26%

TDP+        16               13              46.67% (BJP was part of TDP+)

ATDP+      13                 0               5.85% (CPM CPI were part of ATDP+)

AIMIM        1                 1               3.26%


1999 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          187             49             41.98%

INC rebel                        3               2.06%

TDP+         187           134             49.64% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       1               1.09%

ATDP         172               0               1.36% (has tactical alliance with CPM+)

CPM+         51                0               1.67% (has tactical alliance with ATDP)


1999 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC         107               42              38.95%

INC rebel                      0                 1.58%

TDP+      107               58              44.72% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                      0                1.24%

ATDP+    107                 0                0.76% (has tactical alliance with CPM+)

CPM+       42                 2                5.84% (has tactical alliance with ATDP)

CPI(ML)     1                  1                0.36%

AIMIM       5                  4                2.72%

MBT          7                  0                0.91%

CPI CPM leaving TDP+ hurt it more in Telangana than AP even though BJP is stronger in Telangana as well.  It seems a lot of BJP voters in Telangana are BJP-INC marginal voters that went back to INC after BJP joined TDP+.  Nevertheless TDP-BJP won AP/Telangana handily as BJP led NDA stormed back to power both at the Center and at AP/Telangana assembly levels.
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« Reply #309 on: November 08, 2018, 07:19:42 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 08:21:43 AM by jaichind »

Between 1999 and 2004 a couple of key developments took place in AP/Telangana that would shape politics up until today.  

First, defeated twice in a row the INC high command turned to Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy known as YSR to take over as lead. YSR has a mass populist base and that base will only grow now he has command of INC.  He would turn around INC fortunes.


In the TDP, TDP's Telangana leader Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao (known as KCR), who was also in the INC back in the early 1980s just like Chandrababu Naidu but  then joined TDP, complained to Chandrababu Naidu that TDP's power at the cabinet level was too skewed toward what is now AP and had underrepresented Telangana.  Of course this was an attempt to expand KCR's power within the TDP.  Naidu rejected KCR's request who then split from TDP and formed TRS as a Telangana regionalist party dedicated to splitting Telangana from AP.


This period was a period of fast economic growth in AP/Telangana based on Naidu's neo-liberal politics.  These politics led TDP to be a target of of Maoist terrorist attacks which seems to enhanced TDP popularity based on the sympathy factor.  Based on this Naidu called early assembly elections to be at the same time as the early 2004 LS elections.  YSR and KCR made a deal where INC will look into splitting Telangana from AP if INC were to come to power.  As a result TRS would have an alliance with INC in Telangana for LS elections and tactical alliances in the assembly elections.  INC also brought on board the Left Front as part of this bloc.  This united alliance scored a shock victory over TDP-TDP in both the LS and assembly elections.

2004 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26               22              52.40%

TDP+        26                 4              43.26% (BJP was part of TDP+)

BSP          13                 0                0.72%


2004 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          16              14              49.19% (TRS CPI CPM were part of INC+)

TDP+         16                1              39.06% (BJP was part of TDP+)

BSP            13               0                2.42%

AIMIM          2               1                2.83%


2004 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          181           137             48.02%(CPI(ML) were part of INC+, tactical alliance with CPI+)

INC rebel                        6               2.32%

CPI+             9               5               1.80% (tactical alliance with INC+)

TDP+         187             37             42.43% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       1               1.77%

BSP             89              1               1.07%


2004 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         63               52              27.78% (SP was part of INC+, tactical alliance with TRS CPI+ JNP)

INC rebel                       0               1.20%

CPI+         17               10               5.73% (CPM was part of CPI+, tactical alliance with INC+)

TRS          54               26              16.82% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JNP           27                2               2.12% (de facto INC splinter, tactical alliance with INC+)

CPM(ML)     1                1               0.32%

TDP+       107             12              36.87% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                     0               0.74%

AIMIM        6                4               2.58%

BSP          71                0               1.48%


 
In surprise victory for INC was mostly about a swing against TDP based on YSR's appeal in AP while in Telangana where YSR's appeal is not as strong cleaver tactical alliances between INC and TRS as well as the Left parties crushed TDP-BJP.  YSR was made INC CM of AP/Telangana a a result of this victory.  Nationally BJP led NDA as also ousted in a surprise defeat and INC returned to power at the center as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #310 on: November 08, 2018, 01:54:58 PM »

Some more polls fro ABP-CSDS for  MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh.

Rajasthan
            seats    vote share
INC      110           45%
BJP        84           41%
Others     6           14%
I think INC will win by a greater margin like this.  Polls at these phase usually overestimate incumbent party. Prev poll has INC leading 145-55 so trend is in BJP direction.



Chhattisgarh
            seats    vote share
BJP        56           43%
INC        25           36%
Others     6           15%
I suspect this overstates BJP's lead but this does show that JCC-BSP might be cutting into the INC vote share more than BJP.  Prev poll was BJP leading 43-42 so trend is in BJP favor.



MP
            seats    vote share
BJP       116           41%
INC      105           40%
Others     9           19%
Overstates BJP's position but last poll had INC leading 118-106 so this one is still up in the air.



Times Now-CNX  has a poll for MP which has
            seats    vote share
BJP       122          41.75%
INC        95          38.52%   
BSP         3            5.41%
Others   10          14.32%
Which is a bigger lead for BJP but in prev poll it had BJP ahead 128-85 so the trend here is moving in INC direction.

It seems to me overall INC is set to win Rajasthan by a large margin and MP and Chhattisgarh are both neck-to-neck.  MP more likely to lean INC while Chhattisgarh is more likely to lean BJP more because of the JCC-BSP split of INC votes.
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« Reply #311 on: November 10, 2018, 07:10:39 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 08:22:21 AM by jaichind »

After the return to power by INC both at the center and AP/Telangana in 2004, Chandrababu Naidu blamed the TDP defeat on its alliance with the BJP and broke off its alliance with BJP and went back to having an alliance with the Left Front.  With YSR as the INC CM he pushed a line mostly against forming a Telangana state and boosting his support in what is now AP.  As a result TRS broke off its alliance with INC and drifted toward TDP who saw getting TRS on its side as way back to power.  Also in 2008 Telegu movie superstar Chiranjeevi formed PRP which mostly based its support on the Kapu community was formed hoping to repeat the success of NTR.  The 2009 LS and assembly elections were held with TDP having an alliance with Left front and a tactical alliance with TRS.  PRP mostly split the anti-incumbent vote and help throw the election to YSR's INC.  YSR also played down his anti-Telangana state sentiments while the Telangana districts were voting vote played up those sentiments after Telangana voted and AP is about to vote which also helped the INC win.

2009 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25               21              40.72%

TDP+        25                 4              34.28%

BJP           24                 0                1.46%

LSP          20                  0                1.00% (economic rightist)

PRP          25                 0              18.52%

BSP         23                  0                0.80%

2009 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           17              12              36.31%

TDP+        10                2              18.03% (CPI CPM were part of TDP+, tactical alliance with TRS)

TRS            9                2              15.34% (tactical alliance with TDP+)

BJP          17                 0               7.18%

LSP         12                 0                1.82%

PRP         15                0               11.41%

BSP         17                0                1.09%

AIMIM       1                1                1.83%


 
 
2009 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           175           106             38.69%

INC rebel                        0               0.73%

TDP+         175             53             34.45% (CPM CPI were part of TDP_+)

TDP rebel                       0               0.39%

BJP            160              0               1.18%

LSP            146              0               1.22%

PRP            175            16             19.25%

BSP           166              0               0.96%


2009 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC         119               50             33.36%

INC rebel                       2              1.54%

TDP+       79               44              25.37% (CPI CPM were part of TDP+, tactical alliance with TRS)

TDP rebel                      1               0.27%

TRS         45               10               9.97% (tactical alliance with TDP+)

BJP        111                2                5.31%

LSP        100               1                 2.57%
 
PRP        113               2               11.92%

AIMIM       8                7                2.08%

BSP       104                0                1.19%

PRP was stronger in AP and help split the anti-INC vote to give YSR's INC victory.  Most TDP and INC rebels that could have run ran with PRP so their numbers went down a lot from historical norms.  In Telangana TRS mostly flopped although with PRP being weaker and not taking away anti-INC votes, INC was not able to take advantage as much of the opposition split.  Overall YSR's INC came back to power in AP/Telangana and tt the national level the INC led bloc returned to power  at the center winning a larger than expected number of seats and coming close to absolute majority.
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« Reply #312 on: November 10, 2018, 07:33:23 AM »

I don't really follow Indian politics that closely but I just want to appreciate the immense amount of work you've been putting into this. Thanks, Jaichind! Cheesy

Btw, I'm curious why you are so interested in the unholy mess that is Indian politics, seeing that you're Chinese. Your username also sounds Indian.
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« Reply #313 on: November 10, 2018, 07:36:35 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 08:18:35 AM by jaichind »

Soon the 2009 LS and AP/Telangana assembly elections, YSR died in a helicopter accident which threw all political calculations in AP/Telangana awry.   YSR's son Jaganmohan Reddy demanded that he be made leader of INC in  AP/Telangana and CM which was turned down by INC high command.  This lead to a break between Jaganmohan Reddy and INC which led to Jaganmohan Reddy splitting from INC and forming YSRCP which in turn took over a good chunk of INC support, especially in AP where YSR himself had his political base.   In response INC got Chiranjeevi's PRP to merge into INC to bolster itself. Chiranjeevi's brother Pawan Kalyan rejected this path and formed JS as a successor to PRP.  With INC weakened the vultures gathered. TRS stepped up its campaign to form Telangana seeing weakness in INC both a the federal and state level.  In 2013 INC high command agreed to the formation of a separate Telangana hoping to increase its support in Telangana  to make up for the loss of support to YSRCP.  This merely caused INC support to collapse in AP and for TRS to get credit for the formation of Telangana.   TDP, seeing a chance to return to power in 2014, formed an alliance with BJP again hoping to cash in on the Modi wave.  JS did not run but mostly supported TDP-BJP.  The result in the 2014 LS and assembly election was the return to power by TDP-BJP in AP with INC mostly falling apart in AP and TRS winning power in the new separate Telangana defeating INC and TDP-BJP in a 3 way battle.

2014 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                0               2.86%

JSP            23               0               0.66% (INC splinter)

YSRCP       25                8              45.67%

TDP+        25               17             48.02% (BJP was part of TDP+)

2014 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          17               2              25.65% (CPI was part of INC+)

YSRCP        13               1                4.48%

TDP+         17               2               22.75% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TRS           17              11              34.95%

AIMIM         4                1               3.53%

BSP           17               0                1.17%

LSP            1                0                0.82%

CPM           2                0                0.56%




2014 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           173               0               2.79%

JSP           149               0               0.73%

YSRCP       174             67             44.59%

TDP+        175            106            47.01% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                      1               0.65%


2014 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        119               22             26.08% (CPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        1               1.05%

YSRCP       92                 3               3.39%

TDP+       117               30             21.75% (BJP was part of TDP+)

TRS         119               63             34.31%

AIMIM       20                 7               3.76%

BSP         102                 2               1.36%

LSP           39                 0               0.56%

CPM          37                 1               1.56%



INC totally misplayed its hand on Telangana where TRS became the main winner of the state formation while INC was totally destroyed in AP with Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP mostly taking over as the succesor party to INC and the YSR legacy.   Nationally the Modi wave crushed INC and BJP led bloc won a massive majority.
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« Reply #314 on: November 10, 2018, 07:43:10 AM »

Developments in  AP and Telangana after 2014 are
1) BJP promised a lot of cash for AP as part of Telangana breaking away during the 2014 elections which failed to take place.  Chandrababu Naidu sensed over time that BJP's stock was going down in AP and that BJP might double-cross TDP by teaming up with YSRCP if TDP is defeated in 2019, broke off its alliance with BJP.
2) JS which mostly took an anti-TDP position after 2014 is drifting toward YSRCP.  YRSCP likewise is drifting toward BJP although this is not made public given BJP's unpopularity in AP.
3) In  Telangana, YSRCP mostly have become inactive, while with TDP's dumping of BJP, a new anti-TRS alliance was formed with INC, TDP, CPI, TJS (TRS splinter).  TRS itself is also drifting toward BJP like YSRCP in AP although it is not public as TRS cannot afford to lose its Muslim based by being publicly being for BJP. In fact TRS called early assembly elections for late 2018  exactly to have an election not in alliance with BJP to keep the Muslim vote so then TRS can potentially be in alliance with BJP in the 2019 LS elections where the Muslim vote would be gone but the Modi factor and bring in Hindu votes. 
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« Reply #315 on: November 10, 2018, 08:02:41 AM »

I don't really follow Indian politics that closely but I just want to appreciate the immense amount of work you've been putting into this. Thanks, Jaichind! Cheesy

Btw, I'm curious why you are so interested in the unholy mess that is Indian politics, seeing that you're Chinese. Your username also sounds Indian.

I am Chinese.  I was very interested in political science back in college and had bunch of Indian friends as well who got me hooked on Indian political developments by the stories they told me. My pen name reflects this key part of my hobby.  Politically I am a Chinese ultranationalist so one way to marry by political beliefs and my interest in Indian politics is to take the the Hindi Jaihind (or long live India) and make my pen name jaichind (or long live China).  Also since almost no other person in the world would come up with a name of saying Long Live China in Hindi this pen make makes it fairly unique which I think is a key attribute of a pen name.
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« Reply #316 on: November 10, 2018, 06:22:36 PM »

A look at the history of AP/Telangana elections seems to indicate the following trends
1) AP is more elastic and have the larger swings toward the winning side
2) Telangana is a lot less elastic have fairly hardened vote bases for each major party bloc, the recent rise of TRS notwithstanding

This seems to imply the following strategy
1) It is a wise idea for INC-TDP-CPI- TJS to form an alliance.  Since each one of these parties have some sort of core vote which is committed to said party in inelastic  Telangana, then it is easier for these vote blocs to fuse to take on TRS.  Both TDP and YSRCP are viewed as AP and not Telangana parties which we opposed to the formation of Telangana but does have a hold on the minority of voters which were from what is now AP.  With YSRCP not running, this bloc could pick up these voters while TJS being in the alliances inoculates them from the view that this bloc is an AP- and not Telangana- centric bloc.  Urban Telangana used to be the bastion of BJP in the South.  It seems that BJP will target AIMIM to polarize around the Hindu-Muslim split to gain it votes and seats.  INC-TDP-CPI-TJS will accuse TRS of being a crypto ally of BJP and drive Muslim votes toward the alliance bloc.
2) A similar alliance in AP (TDP-INC) which is being talked about most likely will not save TDP from defeat by YSRCP.  The elastic and fluid nature of partisan alignment just means a TDP-INC will merely drive away both anti-TDP and anti-INC votes.  TDP's best path to victory next year in AP would be to try to tie BJP to YSRCP given the relative unpopularity of the BJP.
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« Reply #317 on: November 10, 2018, 06:41:49 PM »

Latest C-voter poll on the upcoming assembly elections has

Telengana
                           Seat    Vote share
INC-TDP-TJS-CPI    64      33.9%
TRS                      42       29.4%
BJP                        4

Who should be CM
TRS's KCR                   42.9%
INC's  K Jana Reddy     22.6%
INC's Revanth Reddy     7.2% (TDP leader that defected to INC earlier in 2018)

INC led grand alliance seems to be ahead even though TRS's KCR is still the most popular candidate for CM.



MP
           Seats       Vote share
INC       116          42.3%
BJP        107         41.5%

Neck-to-neck here with a slight edge to INC.  It is also reported that infighting is worse for BJP than INC this time which is a several of the norm.    Given the elastic nature of MP which means these polls will underestimate the anti-incumbency tide  I would say it is a better than 65/35 chance BJP will lose in MP unless the Modi magic can turn it around when he starts to campaign.


Rajasthan
           Seats       Vote share
INC       145          47.9%
BJP         45          39.7%

It seems BJP is done here, of course other polls tell the same story so this is not a surprise.  BJP's main job here is to avoid a landslide similar to what happened to INC in 2013.


Chhattisgarh
           Seats       Vote share
BJP         43          41.6%
INC         41          42.2%
This is tossup and given the inelastic nature of Chhattisgarh the underestimation of INC is most likely not that large.  This will be a 50/50 election and will depend on how JCC-BSP-CPI  does and how it cuts into the INC and BJP vote share.

Mizoram
            Seats
MNF        17   (BJP ally)
INC         12
ZPM         9   (an alliance of various parties and should be seen as de facto INC splinter)
Most likely INC will lose power to MNF after two terms when INC ousted MNF back in 2008.  Fits the narrative that the BJP and allies are taking over the tribal Northeast which used to be dominated by the INC.
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« Reply #318 on: November 11, 2018, 10:26:11 PM »

Voting in progress in the most backward parts of Chhattisgarh.  This area is pretty strong with INC but is also infested with Maoist Naxal rebels which are advocating boycott of elections.  There are massive security presence from the military as Naxal violence has been rising as they go after people that seems to have voted.   All thing equal Naxals are more anti-BJP than anti-INC so Naxal activity more likely than not will depress INC  turnout.  Many voters in this most backward part of Chhattisgarh are so out of touch from the modern world that many would not even know who PM Narendra Modi, INC leader Rahul Gandhi, and even BJP CM Raman Singh are.

The INC manifesto for Chhattisgarh, as usual, are just another list of standard populist sops that if INC manage to come to power will be unlikely to be realized since the funds for the list of promises does not exist  They include
1) Farmers' loans will be waived  (for farmers vote)
2) Halving electricity bills (for urban/suburban lower middle class vote)
3) monthly stipend to 1 million unemployed youth (for youth vote)
4) Introduction of a "universal health care" scheme in which free and quality services
5) Increase minimum support price for various crops (for farmer vote)
6) ban on sale of liquor in the state (for the women vote)

They are pretty much following my strategy for an opposition party
 
In fact if I was a leader of a sizable opposition party at the state level during this period, my main campaign plank would be
1) Free power for all farmers
2) Loan forgiveness for all farmers
3) Free laptops for all students in school (before the 2000s it would be free school lunch)

As for who would pay for this, worry about it later and do a half ass job implementing these promises using your cronies to route cash to yourself and your political friends since you are doomed to lose the next election regardless.  Opposition parties that promise something like this seems to win most of the time.  Of course the former ruling party now in opposition will just promise the same for the next election which you will lose.
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« Reply #319 on: November 12, 2018, 02:55:12 PM »

Maoist Naxlite dominated 18 seats of Chhattisgarh has completed voting.  The remaining 72 will vote on Nov 20.  This shows how serious the security problems here are that all the security forces avaolable have to be concentrated in 18 seats to to ensure a safe vote.  Turnout was 70%.   Back in 2013 these 18 seats had turnout of 67% but then adjusted to 75.3% after all the votes were counted.



It seems that 11 out of 18 INC candidates have criminal records but BJP has none.
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« Reply #320 on: November 15, 2018, 05:10:35 PM »

A bunch of Karnataka LS and assembly by-elections took place which stemmed from MPs being elected as MLAs or assembly candidates running in two seats and needing to vacation one of them when they won both.  INC-JD(S) ran as allies and showed their vote shares can be merged to beat back BJP although BJP, as expected, gain a lot of vote share in INC-JD(S) marginals.

Results are

Ramanagaram assembly
JD(S)      86.1% (backed by INC)
BJP         11.0%

Back in 2018 assembly election it was
JD(S)      54.0%
INC        40.8%
BJP          2.8%

2016 LS assembly segment
INC           46.9%
JD(S)        40.3%
BJP              9.0%

2013 assembly
JD(S)        56.1%
INC           39.0%
BJP             1.2%
KJP             0.3%


Jamkhandi assembly
INC           62.1% (backed by JD(S))
BJP           36.8%

Back in 2018 assembly election it was
INC           32.1%
BJP           30.2%
BJP rebel   15.9%
INC rebel   12.9%
JD(S)          0.6%

2016 LS assembly segment
BJP           58.2%
INC           38.2%
BSP            0.7%
JD(S)         0.6%

2013 assembly
INC           37.3%
BJP rebel   21.3%
BJP           15.9%
KJP           13.8%
JD(S)          7.8%


Mandya LS
JD(S)        65.3%  (backed by INC)
BJP           28.0%

2018 assembly segment sums
JD(S)       54.8%
INC          36.0%
BJP            5.8%

2014 LS
JD(S)       44.0%
INC          43.5%
BJP            7.3%


Shimoga LS
BJP          50.8%
JD(S)       45.9% (backed by INC)

2018 assembly segment sums
BJP          43.5%
INC          31.8%
JD(S)       22.3%

2014 LS
BJP          53.7%
INC          21.5%
JD(S)       21.3%


Bellary LS
INC         61.1% (backed by JD(S))
BJP         37.7%

2018 assembly segment sums
BJP         42.1%
INC         42.0%
JD(S)        5.5%
BJP rebel   3.2%
INC rebel   2.1%

2014 LS
BJP          51.1%
INC          43.0%
JD(S)        1.2%
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« Reply #321 on: November 15, 2018, 10:37:45 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2018, 06:18:08 AM by jaichind »

India TV-CNX poll for LS election in UP, WB and Odisha.

Support for PM in these 3 states
Modi - BJP PM              42%
Gandhi - INC leader     19%
Mayawati BSP leader    11%
BanerjeeWB AITC CM   11%
Yadav SP leader            6%


In UP, the poll projects BJP wins 39% which is a swing of 4% from 2014.  There are 3 scenarios.  First scenario is BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-INC-RLD it comes out to
BJP   30
AD      1
SP    21
BSP  18
INC    8
RLD    2


Second scenario is BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC which comes out to
BJP        44
AD             1
SP           16
BSP        15
RLD          2
INC           2

Third scenario has a repeat of 2014 of BJP-AD vs SP vs BSP vs INC, then it comes out to
          Seat  Vote share
BJP    55          39.19%
AD       1
SP       9            20.55%
BSP     9           20.00%
INC     5           11.91%
RLD    1



For WB it has
            Seats       Vote share
AITC    27 (-7)      36%   (-4%)
BJP       8 (+6)      28%(+11%)    
Left       5 (+3)     24%  (-6%)
INC       2 (-2)        7% (-3%)


For Odisha it has
            Seats      Vote share
BJD        16(-4)    44%  (-1%)
BJP          5(+4)   29% (+7%)
INC          0         22% (-4%)

BJP will lose seats in UP for sure.  WB and Odisha  are some of the few states that BJP could gain seats relative to 2014.
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« Reply #322 on: November 16, 2018, 01:01:13 AM »

Do you watch Indian News:


I am unable to watch it for more than 5 minutes lol
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« Reply #323 on: November 16, 2018, 07:01:31 AM »

Seat sharing for NDA in Bihar is working out exactly as I have foreseen back in April this year. A couple of weeks ago after months of backroom negotiations BJP-JD(U) announce the following formula for seat sharing
BJP    17
JD(U) 16
LJP      5
RLSP   2

Which is pretty close to my predicted endgame.  And just as I predicted RLSP is getting the worst end of this deal.  As a result RLSP has been opening attacking JD(U).  BJP has pretty much concluded that RLSP is on its way out.  Most recent rumors out of BJP high command is that then RLSP's seats would be divided up so the formula would be

BJP    17
JD(U) 17
LJP     6

which again matches my end game pretty well.  Overall BJP is accepting less seats then I would expect them to which shows the relative decline of BJP fortunes since earlier this year after a string of by-election defeats.

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        4
RLSP     1

At this stage RLSP which has not burned their bridges with RJD-INC would then bolt to join RJD-INC.  LJP has burned its bridges with RJD-INC somewhat back in 2014 will only leave in an extreme situation.  Without RLDP then it becomes something like

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        5

or

JD(U)   17
BJP      19
LJP        4
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« Reply #324 on: November 16, 2018, 07:53:03 AM »

Some thoughts on the India TV-CNX poll on UP on the different scenarios.   I think a very key factor on which alliance configuration will do better against BJP is the community of the INC candidate.   BJP SP BSP all have their core voter base (Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC for BJP, Jatav Dalits for BSP, Yadavs and Muslims for SP.)  INC has support in Upper Caste, Muslim and Dalit communities.  But for INC each one of these voter bloc would vote INC only if their candidate is from said community.  Meaning INC would get Upper Caste votes only if INC ran an Upper Caste candidate.  The alliance partners that INC has also will make a difference.  For example, if INC allies with SP then the INC Upper Caste vote most likely will not vote SP especially if the SP candidate has an OBC or Yadav background.

So on paper SP-BSP-INC of course by the logic of addition of vote would do the best against the BJP.  In practice it is hard for the INC Upper Caste vote to transfer to its partners  or if INC runs a Muslim or Dalit candidate.

I think the best way to defeat BJP in UP is a SP-BSP-RLD alliance with tactical alliance with INC.  Where INC Upper Caste support is near nil, INC will back SP-BSP-RLD.  In return SP-BSP-RLD will back INC in the 4-5 seats in UP where INC is still strong on its own to defeat BJP.   Where INC has a good chunk of the Upper Caste vote the INC will run a Upper Caste candidate against BJP and SP-BSP-RLD and spit the Upper Caste vote to take down the BJP.  If you game it out this is most likely will will end up taking place in 2019.
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