India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

Do you watch Indian News:


I am unable to watch it for more than 5 minutes lol

Yes, I listen on Youtube various interesting political news stories for NDTV and India Today.  Of course I listen/watch various other news channels of other countries as well during my free time. 

[jaichind]

Part of the long term BJP strategy to complete its displacement of the INC as the nature ruling party of India is to shift the vision of India itself.  One leg is to alter the legacy of Nehru's vision of a Leftist Secular Social Semocratic India with one of it Nehru's rival inside the INC back in the late 1940s and early 1950s Sardar Patel. Sardar Patel was the number 2 in INC and had more more Rightist views on economic and cultural policy relative to Nehru.  He was key to the integration of India after independence but passed way in 1950 leaving Nehru do dominate INC.  Sadar Patel is from Gujarat and Modi choose him to be the icon of modern India to and displace Nehru.  To some extent Modi wants to retrospectively make Sardar Patel the Godfather of BJP (even as the real Sadar Patel was opposed to proto-BJP BJS) and then claim that Sardar Patel led BJP is the true founder of modern India.  As a part of that Modi pushed years ago a massive larger than life statue of Sardar Patel to be built in his home state of Gujarat which was completed very recently


This statue is the largest in the world


Here is Modi inaugurating the statue and gives a sense how massive it is.


The next step in BJP's struggle to recreate India's vision it align with its own is a recent spree to propose the rename various cities and districts.  The main target are Moghul India names but also names that does not have a Hindu background.   Examples are Aurangabad to Sambhajinagar, Vasco da Gama also to Sambhaji Nagar, Hyderabad to Bhagyanagaramu, Mahabubabad to Manukota, Osmanabad to Dharashiv, Faizabad district to Ayodhya, Ahmedabad to Karnavati, Sultanpur to Khus Bhavanpur, Agra to Agaystapuri etc etc.

The main goal here is to make Moghul legacy and to some extent European legacy of India as not truly part of India's legitimate history.  INC embraces all these legacies while the BJP does not. I recall when I went to India one of the questions I asked people to determine if they are likely BJP or likely INC supporters is: "Do you consider Moghul history as a part of India history or a history of a foreign invading regime?"  The answer clearly shows the India vision biases of the person answering the questions.

[jaichind]

Rest of Chhattisgarh voted.  Overall turnout ended up being 76.35% down from 77.40% in 2013.  All things equal of with Ajit Jogi's JCC-BSP-CPI front running one would expect an increase in turnout.  Overall this tends to be positive for BJP.

Bookies odds mostly have it at a INC advantage in MP with 112–116 seats to BJP 100–102 seats.  For Rajasthan bookies has INC at 126–130 seats and BJP at  55–58 seats.  The odds tightened recently against INC as the BJP campaign kicks off and seems to be able to fight the INC toward a closer non-landslide election.  For Chhattisgarh  the bookies have it advantage BJP with 42–43 seats, INC at 36–37 seats and JCC-BSP-CPI at 7 seats.  Clearly the bookies expect a strong showing for JCC-BSP-CPI which eats into the INC vote.  For Telangana the bookies has it TRS with a slight edge over INC-TDP-TJS-CPI.

[jaichind]

MP voting took place a day ago  Turnout was around a record 75% vs a very high 72.66% in 2013. 



Both BJP and INC claims that higher turnout favors them. All things equal when neither side has a strong personality in the fray (PM or CM candidate) higher turnout tends to favor the opposition so I think this higher turnout should favor INC.  I think BJP best case scenario at this stage is barely holding on  and it is better than even money that INC will take power.

[jaichind]

It turns out that Chhattisgarh's turnout ended being 76.3% which is somewhat higher than the already high 74.7% in 2013.   Such an increase in turnout most likely means that INC will have the edge just like MP.  In both states it seems that Modi campaigning last minute did not have that must of the effect which is fairly negative for both BJP governments clearly facing anti-incumbency.  In Rajasthan the BJP has mostly been left for dead it seems last minute Modi campaigning is have a large effect with ground reports that unlike MP, the INC is not been able to take advantage of clear divisions at the ground level.

In Telangana TRS started with a large lead but everyone and privately, TRS, admits that the INC-TDP-TJS-CPI alliance has closed the gap.  The general view here still is that TRS is likely to win due to inablity of the INC and TDP vote bases to fuse.  I tend to disagree with that view. Telangana is fairly inelastic which means voting blocs tend to be fairly loyal which in turn should mean that all things equal voting blocs can fuse.  TRS formed an tactical alliance with AIMIM but that might also mean it drives away anti-AIMIM TRS voters to BJP.  I say that the INC led bloc have a slight edge. 

Not clear what will take place in Mizoram but most likely INC is on its way out losing to BJP ally MNF.

So my current view is
Chhattisgarh: Lean INC (from lean BJP)
MP: Lean INC (from tossup)
Rajasthan: Lean INC (from solid INC)
Telangana: Lean INC+ (from lean TRS)
Mizoram: MNF (but could be hung assembly depending on how MPC does)

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of MP

Points out that Gonds tend to lean INC while Bhils tend to lean BJP


Poll of poll has it neck-to-neck


An NDTV survey of 190 votes (not a poll) shows a large swing toward INC



BJP stronger in urban areas, but INC doing better in urban areas recently



Shows relative strength of BJP vs INC

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Chhattisgarh

Poll of polls has BJP ahead


Local elections recently show a swing toward INC


Shows relative strength of BJP vs INC in the state


Dalits and Tribals lean INC


Caste Hindus lean BJP


Demographic breakup


Dalits tend to be in the North while Tribals tend to be in the South

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Rajasthan

Poll of poll has large INC lead


Recent local elections has been going INC although 2018 better for BJP than in 2017


Demographic and community breakup by sub-region.


Relative strengths of BJP and INC by community

[jaichind]

NDTV Telangana analysis

Poll of polls has TRS ahead


Leans between TRS vs INC led alliance by community
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[jaichind]

Voting ends in Rajasthan and Telangana. Exit polls coming out.

[jaichind]

For MP so far it is

India Today-Axis
INC   113
BJP    111
BSP      2
Others  4

Times Now-CNX
BJP    126
INC     89
BSP      6
Others  9



It seems that Times Now-CNX sense that BSP and other various BJP and INC rebels will take more anti-BJP votes away from INC.

[jaichind]

Chhattisgarh exit polls

Times Now-CNX
BJP     46
INC    35
BSP+   7
Others 2


Republic-C Voter
INX    45
BJP    39
BSP+  5
Others 0


News Nation
INC    42
BJP    40
BSP+  6
Others 2


India TV
BJP     46
INC     35
BSP+   7
Others 2

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for MP
BJP      118
INC      105
Other      7

[jaichind]

Times Now-CNX exit poll for Telangana
TRS       66
INC+     37
BJP         7
Others    2

Something seems wrong here.  AIMIM should get at least 5 if not 7 seats so how can Others be just 2?

[jaichind]

Times Now-CNX exit poll for Rajasthan
INC       105
BJP        85
BSP         2
Others     7

BJP most likely finished here.  If a fairly pro-BJP exit pollster has BJP behind in this elastic state then the BJP most likely lost by a mile, especially in a high turnout election.

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis My India  exit poll for Rajasthan
INC    130
BJP      63
Other    6

[jaichind]

Updated chart on MP

India Today-Axis
INC   113
BJP    111
BSP      2
Others  4

Times Now-CNX
BJP    126
INC     89
BSP      6
Others  9

Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat
BJP      118
INC      105
Other      7

India News
INC      112
BJP      106
Others   12



It seems exit poll here mixed.  Overall if the ruling party have some exit polls have it winning and some exit polls losing then the ruling party most likely lost.  So far data does not look that great for BJP but I guess it is still in the game.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan exit poll chart

Times Now-CNX 
INC       105
BJP        85
BSP         2
Others     7

India Today-Axis My India 
INC    130
BJP      63
Other    6



Looks more and more like a landslide BJP defeat.  But Rajasthan is very elastic anyway.

[jaichind]

CVoter Mizoram exit poll
MNF   18
INC    16
ZPM     5
Other   1

Most likely INC is out but could keep BJP ally MNF from a majority

[jaichind]

ABP-Lokniti CSDS exit poll for MP
INC    126
BJP      94
Others 10

Looking worse and worse for BJP in MP

[jaichind]

For MP and Chhattisgarh for pollsters that did both pre-poll survey and exit polls the exit polls seem more favorable to INC relative to pre-poll survey.  It seems momentum is on the side of INC and we should lean toward believing the pro-INC exit polls than the pro-BJP ones.

[jaichind]

Latest summery info on exit polls

[jaichind]

Just to repeat my exit poll to projection algorithm for Indian assembly elections.

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

[jaichind]

Historically Pro-BJP Today's Chanakya exit poll are actually disasters for BJP

Rajasthan
INC   123
BJP     68
Others  5

MP
INC   125
BJP   103
Others  2

Chhattisgarh
INC    50
BJP    36
Others 4

Most likely  Today's Chanakya after so many misses on the pro-BJP side decided to change their methodology.  Still these a disastrous exit poll numbers for BJP given the pollster 

[jaichind]

MP exit poll to projection calculation

It is this chart plus Today's Chanakya


                           BJP     INC   OTH
Republic TV          118    105       7
Timex Now-CNX    126     89      15
Republic C Voter     98    118     14
ABP News-CSDS     94    126     10
News Nation         110    107     13
India News           106    112     12
India-CNX            126     89      15
News24               105    117       8
India Today-Axis   111   113        6
Today's Chanakya 103    125       2
----------------------------------------------
Avg                     110    110     10  (exact tie !!!)

Since Today's Chanakya  does not seem to show is normal pro-BJP bias we do a straight average.

Now lets look at pre-election polls done by pollster that have exit polls

                          BJP   INC     OTH
Timesnow-CNX    122    90       18   -> pretty much wash with exit poll
ABP News-CSDS   116  105        9   -> exit poll clearly more pro-INC
Cvoter                 107  116      14   -> somewhat more pro-INC
India-CNX            126   85       17   -> pretty much wash with exit poll
News Nation         111  109      10   -> pretty much wash with exit poll

The average of these 5 pre-election polls are
BJP  116  INC  101   OTH 14
The average of these 5 exit polls are
BJP  111  INC  106  OTH 13

The there is a small shift toward INC.  So I will select the average of 3rd and 4rd best for INC which is
INC 117 BJP 102 OTH 11

Now, since this is a defeat of the incumbent I will ad some seats from BJP to INC based on my view of elasticity of the state which gives me
INC  129 BJP   90 OTH 11

So my exit poll adjusted projection for MP is
INC  129
BJP    90
OTH   11