India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

In Bihar RLSP nows joins RJD-INC front which means a Grand alliance of RJD-INC-RLSP-LJD-HAM and also most likely NCP


I predicted this back in March

So gaming out negotiations on both sides seem to indicate the rational choice of RLSP would be to leave JD(U)-BJP and join up with RJD-INC.

Of course the seat adjustment problem merely shifted from NDA to UPA as RLSP is demanding 5 seats which for sure RJD-INC cannot accommodate.  RJD wants to contest a good deal more than 20, INC wants to contest at least 15, HAM is calming at least 5.  Overall BJP-JD(U)-LJP will have the edge so the UPA alliance parties will have to come to some sort of a compromise or else they will hang separately.    RLSP might merge with LJP (not clear who is the leader in such a case, Sharad Yadav or Upendra Kushwaha) to increase its leverage.

I think for UPA it will end up being something like

RJD   20
INC   12
RLSP  4  (JD(U) splinter based on OBC  Kushwaha  caste)
HAM   2 (JD(U) Dalit plinter)
LJD    1  (Sharad Yadav personality party)
NCP   1

On the NDA side it was
BJP    17
JD(U) 17
LJP      6 (JD(U) Dalit splinter)
RLSP    2

Now that RLSP is gone it was assumed that BJP and JD(U) would split the 2 seats to get them to 18 each.  But LJP sensing weakness in BJP now that it was defeated in the assembly elections AND RLSP dumping BJP is demanding that it gets both the extra seats.  Most likely will not work but will add to BJP ally problems.

[jaichind]

In UP rumors are that it seems that SP-BSP has created an grand alliance of SP-BSP-RLD without INC.  The seat breakdown seems to be BSP 38 SP 37 RLD 3 with the alliance not contesting the 2 INC seats held by Sonia and Rahul Gandhi.  SP might give out a couple of seats to PECP (Muslim based) and NISHAD (Nishad caste based)

But not is all what it seems.  It seems what the SP-BSP concluded is what I have been saying about UP for a while, that an across the board SP-BSP-INC-RLD alliance tend to help the BJP where if the SP or BSP candidate is not an Upper Caste candidate the INC Upper caste vote will vote BJP anyway and where INC runs with a Upper Caste or Muslim candidate the SP-BSP OBC-Dalit vote will go BJP.

I have always suggested a tactical alliance between SP-BSP-RLD and INC where SP-BSP-RLD leaves around 4-5 seats to INC where INC is very strong and have INC run in another 20-30 seats with an Upper Caste candidate where the INC Upper Caste vote is relevant to ensure they do not flow to BJP.

It seems the current SP-BSP-RLD plan is a different variation of my proposal.  Which is run candidates in all 78 out of 80 (except the two INC Gandhis) seats but in seats where INC is likely to be strong run a SP or BSP candidate that duplicates the community background of the BJP candidate to split the BJP vote and ask the INC to do the same (which is my plan where INC runs Upper caste candidates to hit BJP).

The basic is idea to to somehow consolidate the SP BSP INC vote bases without BJP and Modi turning it into a Hindu vs rest battle on a seat by seat basis.

[jaichind]

In Bihar, it seems NDA allies locked down a deal where BJP and JD(U) will contest 17 seats each and LJP 6 seats for LS.  In addition LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan will not contest LS polls but will be given a seat in the Upper House from BJP's quota in Assam.  Overall this breakdown is a big climb-down by the BJP and shows the relative decline of BJP bargaining power now that RLSP has left NDA and given the setback BJP received in the just concluded assembly elections.



Back in March I predicted

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        5

or

JD(U)   17
BJP      19
LJP        4

Which is pretty much where it ended up except LJP emerged stronger at the expense of BJP

[jaichind]

By-election for Kolebira assembly in Jharkhand came out.  This seat was held by a one man tribal JP whose leader, Anosh Ekka, was put in jail on murder charges which led to the by-election.  JP has mostly leaned anti-BJP and JMM wanted to back Anosh Ekka's wife running on the JP ticket to take on the BJP.  INC-JVM disagreed and insisted on running a INC candidate with JVM backing to avoid the image of the JMM-INC-JVM alliance backing an convince felon.  The split of the anti-BJP vote was expected to hand the seat to the BJP.  But INC unexpectedly won as the anti-BJP vote consolidated around INC at the expense of JP.  The result was

INC   35.1%  (backed by JVM)
BJP   26.7%
RSP   20.7%  (not clear what this party is about,  most likely some JMM or JP splinter)
JP     14.3%  (backed by JMM)


Back in 2014 assembly election it was

JP     39.6%
BJP   25.7%
JMM  13.8%
INC    8.7%
ABJP  4.1%  (tribal based)
GGP   1.7%
Ind.   1.6% (Muslim based)
JVM    1.2%


The result of this assembly segment in the 2014 LS election was

JP     30.8%
INC   30.2% (backed by JMM)
BJP   26.5%
JVM    2.3%

It seems here there is just a BJP cap of around 27% or so where that is where the BJP vote is and the rest are spread between the anti-BJP forces.

Anyway this election result will again increase the negotiation leverage INC has over JMM as JMM-INC-JVM-RJD grand alliance takes shape in Jharkhand.

[jaichind]

C-voter and Republic TV came out with another LS survey on a state by state after the one it did back in Oct.  

Overall it has

           seats      vote share
NDA     247           37.7%
UPA     171           32.8%
Others 125


If these were the results I suspect it will be a BJP led government but without Modi since out of the 125 Others only 38 could ally with BJP (2 SHS, 6 BJD, 14 YSRCP, 16 TRS).  To get most of them on board enough concessions would have to be given which means a more collaborative BJP PM would have to be found which is not Modi. 

The results with diff from Oct are

UP
                 Seats             Vote Share
SP-BSP       50(+6)            44.3%(-0.4%)
BJP+          28(-3)             42.8%(-1.1%)
INC              2(-3)              7.3%(-0.6%)
This poll assumes that SP-BSP runs everywhere except for the 2 seats it leaves for INC (the two Gandhis.)  Overall seems reasonable.  I suspect the BJP vote share will be lower than this but the seat count seems logical.



Maharashtra
             Seats        Vote share
BJP-BVA   16(-7)        38.0%(+0.2%)
INC-NCP  30(+10)      42.2%(-0.8%)
SHS          2(-3)          8.2%(+0.4%)
This poll assumes INC-NCP alliance unlike in Oct.  In reality in the end SHS will ally with BJP and edge out INC-NCP after SHS gets is pound of flesh.



WB
             Seats        Vote share
AITC         32              40.0%(-1.2%)
BJP            9              30.2%(-1.3%)
Left Front   0              14.6%(+0.1%)
INC            1                8.3%(+0.4%)
No real change from Oct survey.  BJP vote share seems high but I guess if two surveys in a row has them that high that could be what takes place.

 

J&K
              Seats        Vote share
INC-NC      4              38.1%
BJP            2              33.7%
PDP           0              16.0%
This state was not in the Oct survey.  It seems to show that BJP consolidates the Hindu vote while the Muslim vote shifts from PDP to INC-NC which seems reasonable.



Bihar
                                Seats        Vote share
BJP-JD(U)-LJP             35(+1)        47.4%(-0.3%)
RJD-INC-HAM-RLSP       5(-1)         38.6%(+3.3%)
RLSP has defected to UPA since the last survey which did shift some votes although made no impact on seats.  I suspect BJP-JD(U)-LJP will do worse than this as they face double anti-incumbency.  



TN
               Seats        Vote share
DMK-INC    39(+10)      43.8%(-2.1%)
AIADMK      0(-9)          26.4%(-6.6%)
BJP            0(-1)           9.5%
The Oct survey did not take into account DMK-INC alliance which does so now.  This survey seems feel that AIADMK splinter AMMK will cut in the AIADMK vote giving the DMK-INC a landslide victory.  Overall I agree with the narrative although I am not sure DMK-INC could actually pull off a 39-0 victory.



Karnataka
               Seats        Vote share
BJP            15(-3)        42.3%(-2.0%
INC-JD(S)  13(+3)       47.6%(-2.4%)
Oct survey did not assume INC-JD(S) alliance which it does now giving INC-JD(S) some more seats.  While I agree BJP will over perform in terms of seats relative to vote share I think this survey overestimates BJP a bit in terms of seats.



Rajasthan
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          19(+2)       46.2%(-2.7%)
INC           6(-2)        41.1%(-1.9%)
This result would go against all rules of Rajasthan last few election cycles.  The winner of the assembly election always sweeps in the LS election the year after.  This poll claims it would be the opposite.    I doubt it.




Odisha
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          15(+3)        37.1% (-0.7%)
BJD           6               32.4%(-0.9%)
INC           0(-3)         26.5%
I always felt the last survey which gave 3 seats to INC was not realistic given the fact that this state is moving toward a BJD-BJP two party state with INC relegated to a distant third.  While I doubt BJP can win 15 seats one can never rule that out as BJD has been in charge here a long time and some anti-incumbency must have built up.    



AP
             Seats        Vote share
YSRCP      14(-6)        41.6%(+0.3%)
TDP-INC   11(+6)       38.2%(-2.3%)
BJP            0              11.0%(-0.3%)
The last survey, incorrectly, failed to take into account of a TDP-INC alliance.  Now that it does I suspect it might be underestimating YSRCP as the anti-incumbency against TDP will also rub off on INC.  



MP
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          23(+1)       48.5%(+1.3%)
INC           6(-1)        43.0%(+4.5%)
INC gained votes since the Oct survey but lost seats?  Even with the Modi factor I suspect INC should fight BJP to draw here.



Telengana
                      Seats        Vote share
INC-TDP            0(-8)          32.2%(-3.1%)
TRS                16(+9)         42.4%(+12.0%)
BJP                   0(-1)         12.6%(-6.4%)
AIMIM               1                3.9%
I always that the Oct survey had the BJP vote share too high which this survey corrected.  This survey seems to assume that TRS will win on a scale bigger than the assembly election.  I suspect that INC-TDP will do a bit better than this as the dynamics of a LS election is different from an assembly election as the issue of if TRS will back Modi after the election could drive away Muslim votes that TRS won in the assembly election.



Uttarakhand
                    Seats        Vote share
BJP                  5               49.7%
INC                  0               33.1%
This was not int the Oct survey.  Given some anti-incumbency here I suspect this has BJP vote share as too high.  On the other hand if there are places where Modi can have an impact it would be states like  Uttarakhand given the high concentration of Upper Caste voters.



Assam
                      Seats        Vote share
BJP-AGP-BPF      9               44.0%(-1.2%)
INC                   4               41.5%(-0.8%)
AIUDF               1                3.5%(-0.2%)
Seems reasonable although I suspect AIUDF vote share is underestimated.

 

Punjab
               Seats        Vote share
INC            12              43.3%(+0.6%)
SAD-BJP       1              34.9%(+2.0%)
AAP             0               17.6%(-2.0%)
I think this survey overestimates INC and AAP.  I think a lot of the AAP vote would go SAD and make this state much more competitive.



Jharkhand
               Seats        Vote share
INC-JMM      8(+1)        46.2%(+3.5%)
BJP-AJSU     5(-1)         40.5%(+1.3%)
JVM             1                5.5%(+0.8%)
Seems reasonable although this poll does not take into account of the likely INC-JMM-JVM grand coalition which could make it slightly worse for BJP.



Delhi
                    Seats        Vote share
BJP                  7               42.0%
INC                  0               27.3%
AAP                 0               26.6%
Generally agree,  INC has regained a lot of grand from AAP last couple of years and that tend to work in the favor of BJP as the anti-BJP vote would be split.



Chhattisgarh
         Seats    Vote share
BJP      5(-5)       40,5%(-6.3%)
INC     6(+5)      42.9%(+5.5%)
JCC      0              4.5%(-0.4%)
I guess this is reasonable if one assumes that Modi can get BJP to recapture a lot of the OBC votes it lost in the assembly election.  I suspect this overestimates BJP a bit.



Haryana
         Seats    Vote share
BJP      7(+1)       43.7%(+0.7%)
INC     3              33.4%(-0.3%)
INLD    0(-1)        19.2%(-0.3%)
Since the Oct survey INLD had a vertical split as JJP splits out must have hurt INLD more than this survey suggests.  On the other hand the Oct survey I felt underestimated INLD.  Also not sure if this survey takes into account INLD-BSP alliance.



HP
                    Seats        Vote share
BJP                  4               49.8%
INC                  0               38.3%
This seems reasonable given that BJP just took over the state and anti-incumbency should not be an issue yet.  Just like Uttarakhand this state has demographics that will make is easier for Modi to get BJP to punch above its weight.



Kerela
                           Seats        Vote share
INC-KEC(M)-MUL     17(+1)        39.9%(-0.5%)
Left Front                 3(-1)         29.1%(-0.2%)
BJP                          0               19.0%(+1.5%)
I think this survey assumes that KEC(M) will return to UPA.  Not sure if that would be the case but it did then this sort of projection makes sense even if the BJP vote share seems high.



Gujarat
             Seats        Vote share
BJP          24              54.2%(-0.6%)
INC           2               38.9%(+0.8%)
BJP still seem high but I guess this is Modi's home state.

[jaichind]

In Telangana things are moving toward it being a one party state.  The 1 INC rebel MLA and 1 AIFB MLA have already joined TRS.  It seems the TDP 2 MLAs will also join TRS.  There seems to be a move by at least 12 of the 19 MLA to enact a split of the INC caucus and merge into TRS.  If all this takes place then TRS + AIMIM will have something like 111 out of 117 MLAs with no effective opposition.

In may ways that was how TRS won this election.  After the 2014 election which TRS won, a bunch of INC TDP YSRCP MLAs all defected to TRS and ran in 2018 as the TRS candidate.  The whole point of the creation of Telangana was the large tax based of Hyderabad flow to Telangana and not AP. As the ruling party TRS was flush with cash to buy out these various MLAs and their local organizations.  Most of these organization votes from defectors of 2014 went over to vote for the TRS.  This plus the anti-TDP vote created a large landslide for TRS.  TRS seems to want to build a buffer for 2023 by just taking over what is left of the TDP and INC organizations via a LBO. 

2018 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        119               21             33.09% (TDP CPI TJS was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        1               0.39%

TRS         119               88              47.38%

AIMIM        8                  7               2.74% (tactical support of TRS)

BJP          118                 1              7.08%

BSP         107                 0               2.09%

BLP+       105                 0               1.14% (CPM was part of BLP+)

AIFB         19                 1               0.78% (Leftist party)

SMFB        29                 0               0.84% (Leftist party)

[jaichind]

A key question that needs to be answered on if the BJP can win a large enough number of seats in 2019 LS election to come back to power is what emerges in Maharashtra as far as BJP-SHS alliance is concerned.  SHS claims it will got it alone but many including the BJP believes this is posturing.   With BJP weakened from assembly elections and RLSP leaving NDA in Bihar, SHS seems to want to come in for the kill.

A key problem for SHS in talks with BJP is the asymmetry of risk in the LS and assembly elections for the two parties.  Namely, in a game of chicken, BJP is more fearful of SHS going it alone in LS elections than SHS is because BJP's control of federal power is at stake.  On the other hand SHS is more fearful of a non-alliance in assembly elections since for the long term survival of SHS it must get a stint at having a SHS CM so its various grassroots organizations can get nourished with resources.  Problem is, for SHS, is that if it signs up for a deal with BJP for LS elections in May, after that when the Nov assembly election came around, BJP can play chicken to force SHS to part with seats in alliance talks.  What SHS's strategy seems to be if it comes to talks with BJP
1) Demand massive number of LS elections and get as large of a quota as possible
2) Trade in those LS allocation for more assembly seat allocations to ensure in the case of a SHS-BJP victory in assembly elections it will be a SHS CM
3) Demand that assembly and LS elections are held at the same time to ensure the BJP cannot squeeze SHS in assembly election seat allocation talks AFTER BJP is able to go into the LS election with an alliance with SHS

Overall I think BJP might be overestimating how much it benefits from an alliance with SHS for LS elections.   The CW seems to be if it is INC-NCP vs BJP vs SHS it would be something like

INC-NCP   32
BJP          14
SHS          2

but if it is INC-NCP vs BJP-SHS then it would be something like

BJP-SHS    36
INC-NCP    12

I suspect the gap would not be as large.  I think there are some anti-incumbency building up against the BJP CM so if SHS ran separately it could pick up a lot of Marathi anti-BJP votes which would otherwise go to NCP and maybe INC.  So getting an alliance with SHS might not be as important as BJP seems to believe in my view.

[jaichind]

In Bihar, the "Grand Alliance" being put together seems to be getting bigger and bigger.  In addition to RJD INC HAM LJD RLSP it seems that newly created Nishad based VIP which was loosely allied with BJP has also joined.  RJD seems also keen on getting the 3 Communist parties (CPI CPM CPI(ML)) as well as BSP and SP.  CPI(ML) and RJD has fairly bad blood in the past and I doubt a deal can be worked out there.

Anyway if this were the alliance (RLD INC HAM LJD RLSP VIP CPI CPM BSP SP) then I think the seat share split would be RLD 18, INC 10, HAM 1, LJD 1, RLSP 4, VIP 1, CPI 1, CPM 1 BSP 2 SP 1) which would be tough for all members to accept (RLD wants at least 20, INC wants at least 12, LJD wants at least 2 etc etc.)  The alliance needs to be large because as Daily O points out the social base of NDA is larger than UPA.




Where you map Upper Caste to BJP (16.9%), Paswan to LJP(4.7), various OBC castes to JD(U) (24.0%) to reach 45.6%.  And you map Yadav (14.0%) to RJD, Muslims(16.9%) to RJD and INC, Majhi(1.4%) to HAM, ST(0.9%) to INC, and Kushwaha(2.8%) to RLSP.  This makes the NDA social base ahead of UPA social base 45.6% vs 36.0%.  By getting VIP to join UPA get pull Nishad(1.6%) to go from NDA to UPA to make it 44.0% vs 37.6%.  Now BSP is aligned with Chamars(4.9%) in UP and if they can come on board to UPA then the social bases of the two sides would be roughly the same.   The key issue here is that Modi has been able to consolidate Upper Caste support behind BJP and have removed INC from the equation whereas before the INC used to have a significant share of the Upper Caste vote.

Of course the NDA is now a much more stable coalition as their seat sharing talks are done while the UPA Grand alliance talks had not reached critical stages. So at this stage even with the RLSP and VIP defection to UPA you have to give NDA the upper hand.  The UPA have to hope for anti-incumbency and/or an even bigger alliance to take on NDA.

[jaichind]

It would be useful to count the number of MLA that BJP, BJP allies and other pro-BJP (relatively) have as I think we are reaching peak BJP.  The next cycle of assembly election results will most likely lead to losses by the BJP in terms of MLAs.

If you go with

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India)

Out of 4120 seats BJP has 1518, BJP allies 352.  If you add in other pro-BJP parties like AIADMK, YSRCP, AINRC, NUZP and BVA it is another 178.   So pro-BJP bloc is has 2043 out of 4091 seats (29 are vacant) which is exactly around half of the seats.

I suspect this is the peak of what the BJP can accomplish.  They are almost certain to lose seats in MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh assembly elections later this year.   In 2019 I seem likely they will lose seats in AP, perhaps make minor gains in  Telangana, most likely lose a bunch of  seats in Arunachal Pradesh (having 57 out of 60 means you can only go down), make good gains in Odisha, most likely lose seats in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K, and Jharkhand.

It might at least a couple of election cycles before the BJP can get to this peak again.

Going by

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India)#MLA_party_memberships_as_of_11_Dec_2018

BJP is down to 1346 MLA from 1518 back in May.  BJP allies went from 352 MLAs to 340 MLA.  May 2018 was the peak of BJP MLAs which I suspect will take several cycle to get back to again, if ever as the next cycle of UP, Uttarakhand and I suspect Arunachal Pradesh assembly elections will see BJP MLA numbers only go down.