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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states  (Read 9788 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: February 21, 2018, 01:01:37 pm »

In Meghalaya 20 of 60 MLA since they were elected in 2013 had switched sides making a farce of the Anti-Defection law.
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2018, 08:45:08 pm »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/agartala/tripura-woman-votes-against-cpm-in-laws-kill-her/articleshow/63052150.cms

Tripura woman votes 'against CPM', in-laws kill her

Quote
A neighbour told police the victim's father- and brother-in-law stormed into her house in Nalkata at night and assaulted her with bricks and sticks after accusing her of shifting allegiance to BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: February 27, 2018, 01:22:42 pm »

Voting in Meghalaya and Nagaland done. Exit polls out for these two states and Tripura out.  

Overall it mostly favorable to BJP and allies and negative for INC.  If the BJP is lucky it will end up ruling all 3 states.  BJP threw in a lot of resources in these 3 states to win and it seems that it will get its wish.


Tripura

It seems if the exit polls are believed the BJP-IPFT might cruise to victory.  An amazing accomplishment for the BJP to go from 1.5% in 2013 to winning the election.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
BJP-IPFT     40      51%
Left front:   19      39%

AxisMyIndia
BJP-IPFT:   47      45.5%
Left front:  12      40%
Others:       1

CVoter
CPM:         30     44.3%
BJP+:        28     42.8%
INC:           1       7.2%




Meghalaya

NPP and BJP are allies at the national level but ran separately.  Most likely NPP-BJP will form a post-election alliance and form the government.   UDP-HSPDP are also part of NDA at the national level but also choose to run separately.   But the trend seems clear.  INC is out and some combination of BJP and its allies will form the government.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
NPP:      25           39%
INC:      15           21%
BJP:       10           12%
Others:    4

CVoter
NPP:               20     29.4%
INC:               16     36.5%
UDP-HSPDP:   10       8.8%
BJP:                 6     16.6%
Others:            7

AxisMyIndia
NPP:               14
INC:               20
BJP                  5
Others            20


Nagaland

If NDPP-BJP cannot form a majority then most likely BJP will ditch NDPP and form the government with NPF.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
NDPP-BJP:    30      48%
NPF:            23      42%
INC:              1       4.4%
Others:          6

CVoter
NDPP-BJP:    28      38.4%
NPF:             22      27.1%
INC        :       2      19.7% (I am calling BS on this vote share, INC only contested 18 out of 60 seats)
Others:           8      14.8%
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 08:24:01 pm by jaichind »Logged

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The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: February 27, 2018, 08:28:30 pm »

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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: February 27, 2018, 10:33:35 pm »

MP by-election in Kolaras  and Mungaoli as well as Odisha's Bijepur result coming out now.

In 2013 MP it was

Kolaras
INC    46.5%
BJP    30.8%
BSP    15.0%

Mungaoli
INC    51.2%
BJP    36.2%
BSP     8.8%

In 2014 Odisha it was

Bijepur
INC           32.4%
BJD           32.1%
BJP           18.2%
BJD rebel   11.1%  (running in by-election as the BJP candidate)

Usually the ruling government tends to win by-elections as voters would want a MLA that could get them more pork so we would expect the BJP to win Kolaras and Mungaoli or at least get a significant swing and BJD to win Bijepur.



So far the early vote has INC ahead in Kolaras and Mungaoli  and BJD ahead in Bijepur.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: February 28, 2018, 06:04:39 am »

BJD wins Bijepur in a landslide as the INC vote seems have tactically gone to BJD to stop BJP

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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: February 28, 2018, 06:06:45 am »

INC marginally ahead in both  Kolaras  and Mungaoli and most likely will hold the lead in both seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: February 28, 2018, 07:24:45 am »

INC ahead in Kolaras by around 5% and ahead in  Mungaoli  by around 2%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #58 on: February 28, 2018, 11:17:23 am »

Final result for  Bijepur was

BJD           57.1%
BJP            33.8%
INC             5.7%

There seems to be some internal INC civil war with led to sabotage by from INC factions to work to defeat the INC candidate.  Also it was clear that the race would become a BJD vs BJP battle which made it easier for tactical voting by INC voters.

vs 2014

INC           32.4%
BJD           32.1%
BJP           18.2%
BJD rebel   11.1%  (running in by-election as the BJP candidate)

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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: March 01, 2018, 07:41:41 am »

In MP by-election INC wins both seats, one by a narrow margin.

Kolaras
INC    48.4%
BJP    43.6%

In 2013 it was
INC    46.5%
BJP    30.8%
BSP    15.0%


Mungaoli
INC    49.7%
BJP    48.2%

In 2013 it was
INC    51.2%
BJP    36.2%
BSP     8.8%


In seems there was a swing from INC to BJP but the expectations was that the BJP would make gains or even win given the trend of voting for the ruling party in by-elections.   It seems the BSP vote came in to save INC.  Of course BSP will run its own candidate in the general assembly elections later this year.  Still these results show that BJP last lost ground since 2013 although not enough to lose in 2018.

These by-elections are also an victory of rising INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia


Who is the nephew of BJP CM of Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje.  Most likely Jyotiraditya Scindia will be the de facto leader of INC in the upcoming MP assembly election and will become CM if INC were to win.

Right now I would rate the chances of INC winning in Rajstahan at 75/25, BJP winning in MP at 65/35 and most likely 50/50 in Chhattisgarh between INC and BJP.  INC was for several cycles within striking distance of BJP in Chhattisgarh and 2018 will for the first time give the INC a chance to run against the BJP in Chhattisgarh where both the state and central government is BJP so INC could capture the anti-incumbency vote. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: March 01, 2018, 07:50:33 am »

Some political churning in Bihar which are aftershocks of the JD(U) defection to NDA back in Aug 2017. 

The pro-JD(U) faction of INC lead by former INC Bihar leader Ashok Choudhary has joined JD(U) taking 4 MLC (which is the majority of the INC delegation in the Bihar Upper House) with him.

Jitan Ram Manjhi who was former JD(U) CM but then broke with Nitish Kumar back in 2015 forming HAM and joining the NDA has now defected from NDA to join up with RJD-INC.  Jitan Ram Manjhi has always been close to Lalu Yadav (he has spent time in INC RJD and then JD(U) before forming JD(U) splinter HAM) so with Nitish Kumar coming over to the BJP camp in 2017 HAM joining up with RJD-INC was a matter of time.

Most likely JD(U) splinter RLSP lead by Upendra Kushwaha who also had been Nitish Kumar's protege but broke with JD(U) back in 2013 and now allied with BJP will also follow suit soon now that JD(U) is in the BJP camp.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #61 on: March 02, 2018, 10:00:07 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal

BJP-IPFT off to a good start in Tripura

Tripura (11 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT       5                +5
Left              5                 -2
INC              1                 -3
Others          0                 --

Meghalaya (1 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              1                 --
NPP              0                --
BJP              0                 --
Others          0                --

Nagaland (1 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    1                 +1
NPF-NPP      0                 -1
INC             0                 --
Others         0                 --
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jaichind
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« Reply #62 on: March 02, 2018, 10:08:13 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal

Tripura (16 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT       6                +6
Left              9                 -3
INC              1                 -3
Others          0                 --

Meghalaya (3 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              2                 --
NPP              1                +1
BJP              0                 --
Others          0                -1

Nagaland (2 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     2                 +2
NPF-NPP       0                 -2
INC              0                 --
Others         0                  --
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jaichind
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« Reply #63 on: March 02, 2018, 10:23:22 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far


Tripura (35 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     19              +19
Left            15               -12
INC              0                -8
Others          1               +1

Meghalaya (21 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              5                 -3
NPP              6                +5
BJP              2                +2
Others          8                -4  (UDP-HSPDP 7 out of 8 )

Nagaland (7 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     6                 +6
NPF-NPP       1                 -2
INC              0                 -3
Others         0                  -1
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jaichind
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« Reply #64 on: March 02, 2018, 10:32:30 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  NDPP-BJP sweeping Nagaland


Tripura (44 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     20              +20
Left            23               -12
INC              0                -9
Others          1               +1

Meghalaya (27 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              8                 -4
NPP              7                +6
BJP              3                +3
Others          9                -4  (UDP-HSPDP 8 out of 9 )

Nagaland (9 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     9                 +9
NPF-NPP       0                 -4
INC              0                 -3
Others         0                  -2
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: March 02, 2018, 10:46:30 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  NDPP-BJP sweeping Nagaland


Tripura (53 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     24              +24
Left            26               -18
INC              2                -7
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (36 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            11                 -5
NPP            11                +9
BJP              1                +1
Others        12                -6  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 12 )

Nagaland (16 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    11              +11
NPF-NPP       5                 -4
INC              0                 -4
Others         0                  -3
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jaichind
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« Reply #66 on: March 02, 2018, 10:53:32 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  Nagaland now a lot closer


Tripura (54 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     24              +24
Left            28               -17
INC              1                -8
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (39 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            14                 -4
NPP            10                +8
BJP              3                +3
Others        12                -7  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 12 )

Nagaland (22 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    13              +13
NPF-NPP       9                 -6
INC              0                 -4
Others         0                  -3
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jaichind
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« Reply #67 on: March 02, 2018, 11:00:58 pm »

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  Nagaland now a lot closer


Tripura (56 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     26              +26
Left            28               -18
INC              1                -9
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (39 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            15                 -3
NPP            10                +8
BJP              3                +3
Others        11                -8  (UDP-HSPDP 9 out of 11)

Nagaland (37 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    24              +23
NPF-NPP     12               -14
INC              0                 -6
Others         1                  -3  (JD(U))
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jaichind
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« Reply #68 on: March 02, 2018, 11:11:08 pm »

A lot of real leads

Left in front in Tripura. NPF+ pulls ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (58 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     26              +26
Left            31               -17
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (43 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            18                 -2
NPP            11                +9
BJP              3                +3
Others        11               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 9 out of 11)

Nagaland (53 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    22              +21
NPF-NPP      30                -4
INC              0                 -7
Others         1                -10  (JD(U))
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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Posts: 10,341
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #69 on: March 02, 2018, 11:26:44 pm »

A lot of real leads

Left in front in Tripura. NPF+ slightly ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     27              +27
Left            31               -18
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (53 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            22                 -6
NPP            11                +9
BJP              6                +6
Others        14                -9  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 14)

Nagaland (57 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    26              +25
NPF-NPP      29                -7
INC              0                 -8
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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Posts: 10,341
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #70 on: March 02, 2018, 11:33:27 pm »

Very early vote share

Tripura  (complete collapse of INC)
BJP-IPFT  48.2%
Left         46.6%
INC          1.4%

Meghalaya (UDP-HSPDP and PDF strong areas votes coming in first)
INC              30.3%
NPP              17.2%
BJP               7.6%
PDF              9.5%
UDP-HSPDP  21.8%

Nagaland
NDPP-BJP     38.0%
NPF-NPP       46.7%  (NPP contesting on some seats that NPF is contesting)
INC               4.4%
JD(U)            5.1%
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,341
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #71 on: March 02, 2018, 11:37:40 pm »

A lot of real leads

Neck-to-neck in Tripura.  Neck-to-neck in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     29              +29
Left            29               -20
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (54 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            23                 -5
NPP            12              +10
BJP              5                +5
Others        14               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 10, PDF (NCP splinter) 3)

Nagaland (57 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    24              +23
NPF-NPP      30                -6
INC              1                 -7
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 11:41:12 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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Posts: 10,341
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #72 on: March 03, 2018, 12:02:06 am »

A lot of real leads

Neck-to-neck in Tripura.  NPF-NPP ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     28              +28
Left            30               -19
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (56 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            21                 -7
NPP            15              +13
BJP              6                +6
Others        14               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 10, PDF (NCP splinter) 3)

Nagaland (59 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    23              +22
NPF-NPP      33                -4
INC              1                 -7
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,341
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #73 on: March 03, 2018, 12:04:29 am »

Very early vote share

Tripura  (complete collapse of INC)
BJP-IPFT  48.8%
Left         46.4%
INC          1.8%

Meghalaya (UDP-HSPDP and PDF strong areas votes coming in first)
INC              30.0%
NPP              18.5%
BJP               9.4%
PDF              8.8%
UDP-HSPDP  20.2%

Nagaland
NDPP-BJP     39.8%
NPF-NPP       45.2%  (NPP contesting on some seats that NPF is contesting)
INC               3.1%
JD(U)            3.4%
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,341
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: March 03, 2018, 06:05:57 am »

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Neck to neck in Nagaland with NDPP-BJP slightly ahead.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP. 

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                45.0%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               -- 

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            23                 -5                                 28.6%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.4%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.9%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  17.4%
PDF              3               +3                                   8.4%
Others          3               -12  (2 IND, 1 KHNM)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    31              +30                                39.9%
NPF            26               -12                                 39.1%
NPP              1               +1                                   6.8%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.7%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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