India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Neck to neck in Nagaland with NDPP-BJP slightly ahead.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP. 

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                45.0%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               -- 

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            21                 -7                                 28.5%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.5%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.7%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  17.1%
PDF              4               +4                                   8.2%
Others          5               -12  (3 IND [1 of them is an INC rebel], 1 KHNM, 1 NCP)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    31              +30                                39.9%
NPF            26               -12                                 39.0%
NPP              1               +1                                   7.0%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.7%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)

[jaichind]

Map of BJP and BJP ally ruled states.  It does not color Meghalaya but most likely Meghalaya will have a NPP (BJP ally) CM.

[jaichind]

The reason why BJP and NPP ran separately in Meghalaya is because NPP appeals to Christians and BJP tend to appeal to Hindus.  The INC campaign was based on attacking the BJP as anti-Christian.  An overt alliance would drive Christian votes away from NPP.  It seems that plan worked.

[jaichind]

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Virtual tie in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.  

Counting done in Meghalaya and almost done in the other two states.

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                44.8%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               --  

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            21                 -7                                 28.5%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.6%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.6%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  16.9%
PDF              4               +4                                   8.2%
Others          5               -12  (3 IND [1 INC rebel, 1 pro-INC], 1 KHNM, 1 NCP)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    29              +28                                39.9%
NPF            27               -11                                 39.1%
NPP              2               +2                                  7.0%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.4%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)

[jaichind]

In Nagaland, it seems that despite pre-election announcements, JD(U) will back NDPP-BJP.  The lone independent will also back NDPP-BJP.  This means NDPP-BJP plus JD(U) plus independent will have 31 out of 60 seats to form a government.   Still, there will be a chance that NPF might be brought into this in case there is a need to give the government a greater margin of error.

In Meghalaya, it seems that UDP-HSPDP will back NPP-BJP to form a government.  NPP-UDP-HSPDP-BJP will have 29 out of 59 seats.  Roping in PDF or an independent or two should be enough to get to majority.  It also seems NPP-BJP is eager to get PDF into the alliance to make sure the margin of error is large enough and that PDF will be open to joining the this new anti-INC bloc.  If so we will most likely see a NPP CM in Meghalaya.

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

https://scroll.in/article/870739/the-meghalaya-hung-verdict-explained-in-25-charts-more-volatility-than-overall-results-suggest Great work on charts and maps by Scroll.in Interesting patterns of Congress and NPP voting, NPP is very weak around Shillong.

[jaichind]

Meghalaya politics over the last 30 years has really be a running INC civil war which expanded to occupy most of the political space.  Historically Meghalaya has been about INC vs various incarnations of UDP and HSPDP (both of which are regional parties.)  

Within INC there has been pro-Gandhi clan and anti-Gandhi clan factions.  The anti-Gandhi clan faction was led by P. A. Sangma who was a Meghalaya CM in the late 1980s and was then a long time MP and becoming Speaker of the LS in 1996-1998 (during a period that the Gandhi clan was not in control of INC.)  After the Sonia Gandhi takeover of INC in 1998 the INC civil war in Meghalaya intensified with P. A. Sangma quitting INC in 1999 to form NCP along with Sharad Pawar of Maharashtra and Tariq Anwar  of Bihar.  Of course even after NCP was formed there were fissures.   When forced to pick between alliance with INC or BJP Sharad Pawar and Tariq Anwar rather go with INC while P. A. Sangma was so opposed to the Gandhi clan he rather ally with BJP.

Over time due to P. A. Sangma NCP anti-INC line in Meghalaya politics NCP slowly expanded into the anti-INC space and weakening the predecessors of  UDP and HSPDP.    In 2012 this conflict within NCP (between pro-INC vs pro-BJP lines) came to a head with P. A. Sangma quitting NCP and forming NPP as a BJP ally which was mainly focused in the Northeast.  NCP went into rapid decline in Meghalaya while NPP expanded due to the P. A. Sangma's influence.  P. A. Sangma passed away in 2016 but is son Conrad Sangma took over the reigns and continue to expand at the expense of UDP and HSPDP and to some extent INC as anti-incumbency weight in on INC.

Now that NPP led post-election alliance has been formed Conrad Sangma will be the new NPP CM of Meghalaya finally winning the INC civil war in Meghalaya (for now) over the pro-Gandhi clan INC.  Of course INC is not finished in Meghalaya.  Now that the new government will be a INC-BJP-UDP-HSPDP-PDF [PDF is a NCP splinter whose split pretty much finished off NCP in Meghalaya] INC will be the main opposition and will capture any anti-incumbent support.  So now Meghalaya politics has become a pro-Gandhi clan INC vs anti-Gandhi clan INC (NPP) battle with other forces being marginalized.  

New Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma

[jaichind]

In UP there are two upcoming LS by-elections (Phulpur and Gorakhpur).  INC wanted to continue the 2017 alliance with SP. SP instead worked to form a SP-BSP alliance.  Historically BSP never contest by-elections and usually just stays neutral.  This time around BSP has endorsed the SP candidate.  BSP insist that this does no necessary mean that the 1993-1994 SP-BSP alliance is back for the 2019 LS elections but for sure this is a sign that like 1993 SP and BSP might come together to stop BJP. 

At the ground level SP-BSP alliance is hard since SP aspires to be the party of OBCs which is in conflict with Dalit  which BSP aspire to represent at the social level.  But 2014 and 2017 showed that the non-Yadav OBC has went with BJP anyway.  By SP working for BSP alliance it seems to indicate that SP does not think it can win back the non-Yadav OBC vote from BJP anytime soon and the way to stop BJP is to form a Yadav-Muslim-Dalit alliance to counter Upper Caste-Non-Yadav OBC bloc of BJP.

In 2014 LS results were

Phulpur
BJP     52.4%
SP      20.3%
BSP    17.0%
INC      6.1%

Gorakhpur
BJP     51.8%
SP      21.8%
BSP    17.0%
INC      4.4%

Most likely BJP support has fell somewhat since 2014 LS and 2017 assembly election.  So SP-BSP chance of winning would depend on a) True BSP effort to mobilize the BSP to back the OBC based SP and b) tactical voting by INC voters to defeat BJP.

[jaichind]

In Nagaland, in the end NPP went with NDPP-BJP.  So it will be NDPP leader and former NPF CM Neiphiu Rio will be the new CM leading an alliance (NDPP-BJP-NPP-JD(U)-Independent) which has 33 out of 60 seats.  NPF will be in the opposition with 27 seats.   I do foresee a large number of NPF->NDPP defections in the future.    If this new ruling alliance sticks together then most likely NPF will form an alliance with a weakened INC for survival.  

New Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio

[jaichind]

In the end CPM was defeat in Tripura because it gave the INC base no other choice but to join forces with BJP-IPFT.  In many ways the CPM government was quite popular and still fairly popular even as it was voted out.   In that sense my wild guess on the result was not totally wrong from a vote share point of view since I actually got the CPM+ vote share mostly correct.

                  Vote
                 Share         Seats           
BJP-IPFT      39%          25
CPM+          44%          35
INC             15%            0

I expected the BJP victory in 2023 after 2018 has showed up the INC as having no real future in Tripura but still taking a low double digit vote share.  All that took place was the BJP made that hyper-jump in one election cycle instead of two.  CPM totally misplayed its cards.  When it was clear that BJP-IPFT was surging at the expense of INC, the CPM should have tried to from an alliance with INC.  The local CPM actually proposed something like this but was ruled out by CPM high command which was split on this issue.  Seeing no hope in staying in an INC that was bound to lose, what was left of the INC base went completely over to the BJP-IPFT since the CPM+ was not able to accommodate the various local INC faction leaders.   The result was a shocking BJP-IPFT victory.

[jaichind]

In AP the TDP took one more step toward a complete break with BJP by pulling out of the NDA government.  TDP will continue to back the NDA government from the outside and for now will stay part of the NDA.  The BJP also has pulled out of the TDP government in AP.

One the surface the conflict the issue of "special status" for AP, where TDP wants all federal funding for development projects to be 90% grants and 10% loans vs 60% grants and 40% loans.  The concept of special status only works for backward states (mostly in the Northeast) and is really not applicable to an advanced state like AP.   By not giving TDP what it wants, for now TDP has pulled out of the NDA government. 

The real issue is TDP head and current AP CM Naidu


Senses that Modi wave of 2014 has receded and that going into 2019 TDP-BJP would face defeat as votes flow back to YSRCP while the Muslim vote continue to stay away because of the BJP.  TDP breaking with BJP over getting more funds for AP would give TDP the narrative advantage it needs as a champion of AP regional interests (over YRSCP) while also giving it a shot at the Muslim vote.  The main risk is that as 2019 comes around Modi and with it BJP gains traction again and if TDP dumps BJP ahead of time then a YSRCP-BJP alliance could come in and defeat TDP. 

So hedging his beats for now is the best course for Naidu to start the process of breaking with BJP but still holding out for a possible alliance is the way to go.  What Naidu needs to figure out is in AP will 2019 be an pro-incumbent (in which case TDP-BJP is the way to go)  wave or anti-incumbent wave (in which case TDP has to go without BJP.)  INC is now trying to fish in trouble waters by coming out to support TDP on special status for AP.  Even YRSCP to show its regional credentials came out to support TDP as well.

In 2019 AP the party system will have 2 large regional parties (TDP, YRSCP) and two small national parties (BJP, INC.)   Now that INC came out to back TDP it is possible these two ancient rivals of AP could come together in 2019.  In 2019 we can be sure TDP will not be on the same side as YSRCP and BJP will not be on the same side as INC.  But all large-small combination could take place (TDP-BJP vs YSRCP-INC or TDP-INC vs YSRCP-BJP) plus one of the smaller national party running separately.   

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

https://thewire.in/230558/a-day-before-modis-visit-congress-sweeps-local-body-by-polls-in-rajasthan/ Another good result for INC in Rajasthan. But December is a long way away.

[jaichind]

Of the recent political events (Northeast assembly elections, developments in AP with a possible TDP-BJP split, and UP by election with BSP backing of SP) the most consequential would be the UP by-elections.

 In 2014 BJP-AD won 72 out of 80 UP LS seats on a vote share of 43.6%.  In 2017 UP assembly election this was mostly repeated with a BJP-AD vote share of 41.8% and led to a BJP landslide despite an SP-INC alliance.  One would expect some erosion of the BJP-AD-SBSP vote by 2019 and most likely they will come in around mid to high 30s.  If it is still BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-INC vs BSP then going by 2017 UP assembly results one would expect the BJP-AD-SBSP to win around lows 60s in terms of seats.  But if a SP-BSP alliance can be formed and can work on the ground then the BJP-AD-SBSP could be driven down in the low 30s in terms of seats, a swing of around 30 LS seats.

The UP by election of Phulpur and Gorakhpur would be a good test of this.  Usually by-elections tend to work in favor of the incumbent and the 2014 results

Phulpur
BJP     52.4%
SP      20.3%
BSP    17.0%
INC      6.1%

Gorakhpur
BJP     51.8%
SP      21.8%
BSP    17.0%
INC      4.4%

would indicate that the BJP should win.   But  in 2014 Phulpur and Gorakhpur had very strong BJP candidates which where Keshav Prasad Maurya and Yogi Adityanath which became UP CM and DCM respectively which in turn necessitated the by-election) so BJP punched above its weight in these two LS seats.   If you look at the 2017 assembly segments  of these two seats and add them up you get a true picture of the relative strength of the various parties.  Doing so you get

Phulpur
BJP          35.7%
AD(S)        7.7% (alliance with BJP)
INC            5.4% (alliance with SP)
SP            23.8%
BSP          22.5%

Gorakhpur
BJP           40.4%
BJP rebel     2.8%
INC           10.7% (alliance with SP)
SP            16.7%
BSP           19.4%
NISHAD       5.5%
PECP           0.2% (alliance with NISHAD)
RLD            0.7%

BJP and AD(S) had an alliance and SP and INC had an alliance.  NISHAD is a caste based party that is based on, well, the Nishad caste, which is an OBC caste that is quite numerous in Gorakhpur.   This time around BSP NISHAD PECP RLD are all backing SP while INC which demanded that it get one of the 2 seats as being part of the alliance was rebuffed with SP spending its time trying to get BSP backing which it did.  INC will run its own candidate.  If we use the 2017 results as a calibration where we add up vote share of parties that will back SP and assume that the SP-INC vote share should be split 80%/20% between SP and INC and do the same for AD(S) and the BJP rebel add them to BJP

Phulpur
BJP           43.4%
SP            46.2%
INC            5.8%

Gorakhpur
BJP           43.2%
SP            47.8%
INC            5.5%

These numbers show that if BSP can get its Dalit vote based to vote SP (which historically the Dalits are hostile to) and get some extra anti-BJP tactical voting from the INC then the BJP could be in trouble.  There are reports that this new SP-BSP alliance has BJP worried and this math shows why they are.  Both these seats has BJP+ vote share from 2017 at around 43% which is fairly similar to the BJP+ vote share in 2017 UP assembly elections which makes these two seats then very good test cases.  Meaning if SP-BSP can beat BJP here then the BJP could be beaten across the board in the 2019 LS elections.  In many ways this by-election is a test of if SP-BSP vote base can fuse.  If the BJP is beaten the it shows that the vote bases can fuse then there gives SP and BSP the more reason to go for a grand alliance.

What makes it more complicated for the BJP is that most likely the BJP must have lost ground since 2017 which make the math even worse for the BJP.  In the BJP's favor would be that since these two seats were seats of the now UP CM and DCM the favorite son effect might rub off.  To be this does not seem to me that it will work.  In assembly segments Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi LS seats the INC actually does badly even though the same voters vote by large margins for Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi for LS elections.  

The other positive factor for the BJP is in Phulpur Atique Ahmed who is a Muslim mafia boss is also contesting from jail.  Atique Ahmed was in SP and AD and was actually the SP MP for  Phulpur for 2004-2009.  Atique Ahmed could split off a bunch of the SP Muslim vote based and had victory to BJP.  SP is counting on Muslim vote consolidation to see of this threat.  On the other side of the ledger the INC candiate in Phulpur  is Upper caste and could pull in some Upper Caste vote that otherwise would have gone BJP.    Similar threat for SP exists in Gorakhpur  where the INC candidate is Muslim and most likely put in Muslim vote without being able to dent BJP Upper Caste vote bank.

One way or another the results of this by-poll is critical for how 2019 LS election turns out.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/230558/a-day-before-modis-visit-congress-sweeps-local-body-by-polls-in-rajasthan/ Another good result for INC in Rajasthan. But December is a long way away.

Yeah. Rajasthan is quite elastic and even though INC got crushed in 2013 and 2014 the nature of the state means that the INC could always come back within one election cycle.  I would put the INC chances of winning Rajasthan 2018 assembly elections at 75%.

[jaichind]

This weekend will also see 1 LS and 2 assembly by-elections in Bihar.  This will be a test of the new BJP-JD(U) arrangement where if the JD(U) base can swing over to BJP after the 2015 assembly election where JD(U) was part of the anti-BJP bloc.  In all 3 contests it will be BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLSP vs RJD-INC-HAM. 

The LS by-election is in Araria and will be a BJP vs RJD battle.  The history are

2009 LS
BJP         38.7%  (backed by JD(U)
LJP         35.6%   (backed by RJD)
INC          6.8%

2014 LS
RJD         41.8%  (backed by INC)
BJP         26.8%   (backed by LJP RLSP)
JD(U)      22.7%

2015  assembly (adding up each segment)
BJP         29.2%
BJP rebel   3.9%
LJP           5.3%
HAM         0.4%
RJD        15.2%
JD(U)      24.1%
INC          9.3%
JAP          4.1% (RJD splinter)

which if we consolidate into blocs
BJP+      38.8% (BJP LJP HAM)
GA         48.5% (Grand Alliance - RJD JD(U) INC)
JAP          4.1%

If we take the 2015 results and assume the Grand Alliance vote share are split 40%/40%/20% for RJD/JD(U)/INC and assuming HAM vote share is around 3% we get

BJP        55.2%
RJD       32.1%
JAP         4.1%

Of course that assumes that the JD(U) vote transfers perfectly back to BJP.  And given the fact that JD(U)-BJP are the incumbent party which gives the BJP an added advantage any RJD performance that make the race close would show that the JD(U) vote not not been perfectly transferred.


The assembly by-election are in Jahanabad and Bhabua.  History are

Bhabua
2010 assembly
LJP           26.2%  (backed by RJD)
BJP           25.9%  (backed by JD(U))
BSP          10.2%
INC            7.0%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP           46.4% (backed by LJP RLSP)
INC           30.8% (backed by RJD)
JD(U)        14.6%
BSP            3.8%

2015 assembly
BJP           34.6% (backed by LJP RLSP HAM)
JD(U)        29.3% (backed by RJD INC)
BSP           20.4%

Here the battle will be BJP vs INC.


Jahanabad
2010  assembly
JD(U)        32.1% (backed by BJP)
RJD           24.4% (backed by LJP)
INC           12.0%

2014 LS assembly segment
RLSP         41.0% (backed by BJP LJP)
RJD           36.9% ( backed by INC)
JD(U)        11.0%

2015 assembly
RJD          50.9% (backed by JD(U) INC)
RLSP        30.7% (backed by BJP LJP HAM)

Here the battle will be JD(U) vs RJD.

Just like the Araria LS by-election, as long as the JD(U) vote share transfers to the ruling bloc then BJP and JD(U) should win.  If the race becomes close then it is a sign that the BJP and JD(U) vote share will have problems fusing.

[jaichind]

Turnout for Phulpur and Gorakhpur by-election ended up being 37% and 46%.  It seems the lower turnout has BJP more nervous than SP although the lower turnout could just be as much as the BSP base not coming out which would hurt SP.  I am surprised at how low turnout Phulpur given the SP rebel and Mafia Don Atique Ahmed being in the race which I would imagine would turn up turnout among his Muslim and Dalit supporters. 

In Bihar by-election in  Araria, Bhabua and Jehanabad  ended up with higher turnout which many reads as somewhat negative for JD(U)-BJP as it could be part of anti-incumbency vote given JD(U) has been in power since 2005 even as all things equal the incumbent tends to do better in Indian by-elections. 

[jaichind]

Count in progress in UP and Bihar by-elections.  Is is going against BJP.

In UP SP slightly ahead of BJP in both Phulpur LS and Gorakhpur LS

In Bihar Araria LS RJD is ahead of BJP,  in Jahanabad assembly RJD ahead of JD(U) and in Bhabua  assembly BJP ahead of INC.

[jaichind]

Not all the vote counts for the more minor candidate are show but my estimate of vote shares so far in the count are

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         42%
SP rebel   6%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          50%
BJP         45%

[jaichind]

My estimate of the vote count in Bihar so far

Araria LS
RJD  49%
BJP   46%

Bhabua assembly
BJP   54%
INC   41%

Jehanabad assembly
RJD   56%
JD(U) 40%

[jaichind]

My estimate vote share

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         41%
SP rebel   7%
INC          2%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          50%
BJP         46%
INC           2%

Which represents shock defeats for the BJP given that BJP won over 50% vote share in both LS seats in 2014.  Of course I saw this possibility coming.  I used the 2017 assembly segments and assumed that if BSP and other non-INC opposition parties could transfer their vote then it could become

Phulpur
BJP           43.4%
SP            46.2%
INC            5.8%

Gorakhpur
BJP           43.2%
SP            47.8%
INC            5.5%

Which is what mostly took place. The SP rebel got a but more than I expected but I suspect it captured some anti-SP Muslim votes that would have gone INC if the SP rebel did not run.  There was clear INC->SP tactical voting and the Upper Caste INC candidate in Phulpur took some BJP votes like I expected.

One thing this by-election shows is that a possible SP-BSP alliance that centers around Yadav-Muslim-Dalit alliance can work on the ground and poses a threat to BJP in 2019.

[jaichind]

In Bihar, Bhabua assembly called for BJP over INC and Jehanabad assembly called for RJD over JD(U).  Having a hard time getting exact vote share.

[jaichind]

Not so happy PM Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath watching as Yogi Adityanath's old LS seat is being lost to SP due to SP-BSP alliance.

[jaichind]

My latest estimate of vote share

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         40%
SP rebel   7%
INC          2%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          49%
BJP         46%
INC           2%


Bihar Araria LS
RJD  51%
BJP   44%

[jaichind]

An argument that the Bihar results is mostly about the sympathy vote

[jaichind]

It seems that

Bihar Jehanabad assembly is around
RJD   56%
JD(U) 30%



Which is a repeat of 2015 results but with JD(U) running instead of RLSP and JD(U) in BJP camp while HAM is in RJD camp as opposed to vice versa.

Not sure where the other 14% went...  A good chunk could have gone CPI(ML)(L)