India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

By election result out.  Mostly a setback for BJP.  The LS ones are (rough vote share estimate which does not take minor candidates into account so will be overestimated)

UP Kairana
RLD   53.3%
BJP    46.7%

In 2014 LS it was

BJP    50.6%
SP     29.4%
BSP   14.3%   
RLD    3.8% (backed by INC)

A 2017 assembly segment guesstimate of support by part are
BJP        38.2%
BSP       18.5%
SP         23.2%
INC        10.9%
RLD         7.6%

Combined SP-BSP-INC-RLD alliance defeated BJP despite some defection to BJP relative to 2017 results.  Jat and Mulsim vote were able to consolidate in favor of RLD.  BJP loses seat


Maharashtra Palghar

BJP    31.3%
SHS   27.9%
BVA   25.6%
CPM    9.7%
INC     5.5%  (backed by NCP)

Back in 2014 it was

BJP    53.7%   backed by SHS
BVA   29.6%   backed by INC-NCP
CPM    7.7%

A 2014 assembly segment result has

BJP    21.2%
SHS   23.1%
INC     8.4%
NCP+ 35.2%  (BVA was allied with NCP and one can argue 65% of this support is for BVA)
CPM    5.9%

So if you use the assembly election segment results from 2014 and assume 65% of NCP+ vote are for BVA you get very close 4 way race.

BJP     21.2%
SHS    23.1%
BVA    22.9%
INC     20.7%  (backed by NCP)
CPM     5.9%

So the result is that BJP getting an local INC kingpin to defect and run was a good move.  BJP's core vote plus some of the INC vote got BJP the victory and allows BJP to retain the seat.  Also some of INC-NCP vote went over to CPM.



Maharastra's Bhandara - Gondiya

NCP   51.3%  (backed by INC)
BJP    46.7%

Back in 2014 it was

BJP     50.6% (backed by SHS)
NCP     38.2% (backed by INC)
BSP       4.3%

Using 2014 assembly segment results you get estimates of support for this seat

BJP    34.3%
SHS   11.3%
INC    18.4%
NCP   18.3%
BSP    10.7%

Here it seems NCP was able to pick up BSP's Dalit base support to defeat BJP


In Nagaland it is

NDPP   58.3% (backed by BJP)
NPF     41.7% (backed in INC)

NDPP wins given the need for Nagaland to align with the central government

Assembly by-elections were a defeat of BJP across the board which I will post later.

[jaichind]

Some official assembly by-election results

UP Noorpur - death of BJP MLA whose daughter is contesting so there will be a sympathy factor
SP      50.5%  (backed by BSP INC RLD PECP MD)
BJP     47.5%

2017 assembly
BJP     39.0%
SP      32.7%  (backed by INC)
BSP    22.6%
MD      2.6%
RLD     1.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP     41.8%
BSP    26.9%
SP      24.0%
PSEP    3.9%
MD       1.2%  (backed by INC)

The opposition consolidation worked but there was clearly some vote leakage over to BJP partly because of sympathy factor and also ruling parties tend to do better in assembly by-polls.


WB Maheshtala
AITC      59.1%
BJP        23.7%
CPM       17.1%  (tactic support from INC)

In 2016 it was
AITC      48.6%
CPM       42.2% (backed by INC)
BJP          7.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
AITC      38.3%
CPM       33.9%
BJP        18.0%
INC         6.6%

WB moving toward a bi-polar state of AITC vs BJP with Left Front-INC driven to a weaker and weaker third place.



Meghalaya Ampati - INC CM from before the 2018 assembly elections ran in two seats and had to vacate one of them after winning both
INC     56.1%
NPP     42.7%

2018 assembly election
INC   64.2%
BJP   33.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
INC    70.2%
NPP    29.8%

This is an INC stronghold so INC winning was expected.  NPP did close the gap mostly due to ruling parties doing better in assembly by-elections as well as the INC CM not running in the seat.



Punjab Shahkot
INC      62.5%
SAD     33.2% (backed by BJP)
AAP       1.4%

Back in 2017 it was
SAD     34.7% (backed by BJP)
INC      31.0%
AAP      30.3%

In 2014 LS assembly segment
SAD     41.2%  (backed by BJP)
AAD     25.8%
INC      25.2%

INC did well because the ruling party always does better in assembly by-elections but also because SAD has really not recovered yet from the 2017 blow as well as total collapse of the AAP vote.

[jaichind]

SHS is crying foul on Palghar LS by-election results saying that the count has irregularities.  The SHS goal is to show that without SHS, BJP cannot win.  In this case SHS ran and despite coming in second failed to prevent a BJP win due to BJP winning over part of the INC vote.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/other/shiv-sena-urges-ec-not-to-declare-the-palghar-bypoll-result-alleges-irregularities-in-counting-of-votes/articleshow/64402905.cms

[jaichind]

More official results

Uttarakhand assembly Tharali - death of BJP MLA.  Widow ran so there will be the sympathy vote
BJP         49.0%
INC         45.3%

2017 assembly
BJP          44.1%
INC          35.7%
BJP rebel  12.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP         58.1%
INC         33.6%

BJP won but this result is fairly problematic for BJP.   The incumbent advantage in assembly by-elections plus the sympathy for the widow still led to INC closing the gap more than 2017 let alone 2014.   



Maharashtra LS Palghar  - death of BJP MP, but SHS nominating BJP MP's son
BJP         31.4%
SHS        28.0%
BVA        25.6%
CPM          8.3%
INC           5.5%  (backed by NCP)

If you take the 2014 assembly segments you have
BJP    21.2%
SHS   23.1%
INC     8.4%
NCP+ 35.2%  (BVA was allied with NCP and one can argue 65% of this support is for BVA)
CPM    5.9%

which  if you break up BVA and NCP with 65/35 split you get
BJP     21.2%
SHS    23.1%
BVA    22.9%
INC     20.7%  (backed by NCP)
CPM     5.9%

In 2014 LS it was
BJP    53.7%   backed by SHS
BVA   29.6%   backed by INC-NCP
CPM    7.7%

Clearly I some of the NCP based which was allied with BVA before BVA went over to BJP still voted BVA which cost INC.  BJP nominating an INC defector also got some of the INC based to come over even as SHS got some of the BJP base with the son of the deceased BJP MP as its candidate.  Seeing that INC has no hope to win some INC voters went over to CPM.  BJP won the battle of defections on this one and shows a way out for BJP to win in 2019 Maharashtra LS elections even if SHS were to run separately. 

[jaichind]

More official results

Jharkhand Gomia assembly - existing JMM MLA convicted of a series crime and removed as MLA
JMM     34.6%  (backed by INC and JVM)
AJSU    33.9%
BJP      24.0%

2014 aseembly
JMM      55.3%
BJP       34.1%  (backed by AJSU)
INC        2.2%
JVM        1.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
JMM      36.1%  (backed by INC)
BJP       34.1%
AJSU     15.7%
JD(U)     3.7%
JVM        2.8%

JMM has headwinds here because the ruling party usually does better in by-elections plus the issue of the JMM MLA being convinced of a crime and removed.  It seems BJP and AJSU threw away a chance to capture the seat from JMM by not joining forces in this JMM stronghold.  With backing from INC and JVM, JMM was able to hold on to the seat.


Jharkhand Silli assembly - existing JMM MLA convicted of a series crime and removed as MLA
JMM       53.1%  (backed by INC and JVM)
AJSU      43.8%  (backed by BJP)

2014 assembly result
JMM      55.7%
AJSU     34.9%  (backed by BJP)
CPM       2.3%
INC        1.6%
JVM        0.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
AJSU     40.4%
BJP       19.3%
JVM      18.2%
INC         7.4% (backed by JMM)
CPM        3.3%

JMM has headwinds here because the ruling party usually does better in by-elections plus the issue of the JMM MLA being convinced of a crime and removed.  JMM with backing from INC and JVM beat back AJSU who actually its President.  Overall this result bodes well for the JMM-INC-JVM grand alliance in 2019 LS elections in Jharkhand.

[jaichind]

Other official results

Nagaland LS
NDPP        58.6%  (backed by BJP NPP JD(U)
NPF          41.4%  (backed by INC)

2018 assembly elections
NDPP-BJP  40.5%
NPF          38.8%
NPP           6.9%
JD(U)        4.5%
INC           2.1%

2014 LS
NPF          68.8%  (backed by BJP)
INC          30.2%

Results mostly along the lines of the assembly election.  INC totally marginalized and need to ally with NPF to survive even as a tier 2 party against NDP splinter NDPP along with BJP NPP and JD(U)



Maharashtra Bhandara-Gondiya LS - SHS mostly neutral
NCP      46.9% (backed by INC)
BJP       41.8%
BBM       4.3%

2014 assembly segments
BJP    34.3%
SHS   11.3%
INC    18.4%
NCP   18.3%
BSP    10.7%

2014 LS
BJP    50.6% (backed by SHS)
NCP   38.2% (backed by INC)
BSP    4.3%

BBM won some of the the BSP vote.  It seems NCP won the INC vote and also took some of the BSP vote which defeated BJP which only got part of the SHS vote.



UP Kairana - death of BJP MP whose daughter is running on the BJP ticket
RLD   51.5%  (backed in SP-BSP-INC-MD-PECP)
BJP    46.7%

2014 assembly segments assuming SP-INC vote is split 75/25
BJP     38.2%
BSP    18.5%
SP      23.2%
INC     10.9%
RLD      7.6%

2014 LS
BJP    50.6%
SP     29.4%
BSP   14.3%   
RLD    3.8% (backed by INC)

The Jat vote which sent to BJP in 2014 due to Jat-Muslim riots somewhat returned in 2017 back to RLD.  RLD ran a Muslim more to test the ability to consolidate Jat-Muslim-Dalit vote even with a Muslim candidate.  The experiment worked even as the BJP gain vote relative to the 2017 benchmark due to RLD Muslim candidate plus sympathy factor.

[jaichind]

More official results

Bihar Jokihat assembly - JD(U) MLA defected to RJD and ran for LS seat that his RJD father held before he passed away
RJD         56.7% (backed by INC NCP HAM)
JD(U)      27.9% (backed by BJP RLSP LJP)

2015 assembly
JD(U)      58.6% (backed by RJD INC)
BJP rebel 24.6%
JAP           3.5%
HAM          2.7% (backed by BJP RLSP HAM)

2014 LS assembly segment
RJD         62.4% (backed by INC NCP)
BJP         19.9%  (backed by LJP RLSP)
JD(U)      11.4%  (backed by CPI)

This is a very heavy Muslim district where JD(U) used to do well at the assembly level despite its alliance with BJP due to a strong local candidate and JD(U) pro-Muslim image.  This time around the seat reverts to its national levels of support.

[jaichind]

Even though the media narrative of these by-elections are a significant setback for BJP, looking at the numbers I would say BJP performed at par, once we accept that he anti-BJP attempts at consolidation has mostly worked.  Meaning there does not seem to be any sign of swing against the BJP.   

Only exception to this narrative is the Uttarakhand assembly by-election where BJP lost ground to INC.   This is a fairly negative signal for places like MP and Rajasthan. 

Obviously the by-elections does show that the anti-BJP can, under the right circumstances, come together.   In UP SP-BSP-INC-RLD on purpose nominated Muslim candidates to test the anti-BJP consolidation thesis in the face of clear attempts of BJP at Hindu consolidation.  It mostly, with some vote leakage, worked.

So what the BJP has to confront in 2019 are various attempts all over India to put together anti-BJP blocs.  If they seems to be gathering steam it could actually become a death spiral.    The chances of BJP allies such as SHS or JD(U) staying in the BJP alliances is really a function of: Will the BJP win in 2019?  If BJP is seen as a winner they neither will have an incentive run afoul of BJP when they are going to win.  If BJP is seen as losing then even they will go on their own to show their electoral power to the BJP.  But with such defection (can you can count TDP's exit from NDA as already part of this process) the BJP gets weaker and makes the next defection more likely.  The internal narrative within the BJP of Modi the Invincible makes this more likely as what JD(U) and SHS will likely do in the face of declining BJP fortunes is to offer to say for a greater pound of flesh in terms of seats.  BJP thinking it unbeatable in 2019 will not compromise.

There are already ominous signs for BJP.  In Karnataka it seems that INC and JD(S), in addition to forming a coalition government, is now also committed to an alliance in 2019 LS elections.  While that might be positive for the BJP on the long run as it would give it a chance to grow in Southern Karnataka where it is INC vs JD(S) for now, this would mean BJP losing 10+ seats in Karnataka.

In  MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh INC seems to be willing to offer BSP a large number of seats for an alliance for the first time ever.  And the BSP which formed an alliance with INLD in Harayana and JD(S) in Karnataka seems to be willing to join alliances for the first time since the late 1990s.  If it becomes INC-BSP in MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh then I suspect BJP will lose all 3 states, perhaps by a significant margin. 

[jaichind]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/columns/s-gurumurthy/2018/jun/06/2018-bypolls-hidden-message-for-2019-1824318.html

Makes a similar analysis as I did based on the assembly segments results from last assembly election and compare them to the LS by-election

Where we diverge is his analysis fail to take into account (for UP) that
a) incumbent parties tend to over-perform in by-elections
b) relatives of the BJP incumbents were running and BJP should over-perform based on the sympathy factor.
c) Grand alliance ran a Muslim candidates in both UP seats (LS and assembly) which should in theory drive some non-BJP Hindu votes  to BJP.   It was a test of ability of opposition voting blocs to transfer votes to each other.  While BJP can count on Modi to help in 2019 it cannot count on an opposition to nominate a Muslim  in all seats.

[jaichind]

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/karnataka-cabinet-expansion-congress-jds-bsp-kumaraswamy-shivakumar-mahesh-5206244/

BSP's lone MLA in Karnataka joins JD(S)-INC government becoming the first BSP minister outside of UP.

[jaichind]

In MP it seems INC already have roped in the Tribal GGP to join an INC-led alliance and it seems more likely than not that BSP will join with SP also showing interest.  In theory in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh INC is also looking at getting BSP to join but the interest there is less.  INC is very likely to win in Rajasthan own its own and in Chhattisgarh it seems that it is 50/50 between BJP and INC.  It is in MP where the chances of INC victory is lower than 50% and the local INC leadership is willing to give up a significant bloc of seats to get BSP.

The fact that INC is willing to do give up a large number of seats  in a INC-BJP bipolar state (INC has allied with NCP in Gujarat in the past but they gave out single digit number of seats) is a first  and to some extent gives up on the INC dream of restoring a pre-1989 world of INC domination.  Repeated defeats since 2014 has given the INC a wake-up call that a lack of such an alliance might consign INC to terminal decline.

 

[jaichind]

Nitish Kumar set to take on BJP, forms a ‘Bihar front’ within NDA to bargain for 2019

https://theprint.in/politics/nitish-kumar-to-take-on-bjp-forms-a-bihar-front-within-nda-bargain-2019/66418/

In Bihar, setbacks by JD(U) in by-elections and BJP nationwide has trigger both parties to try to expand their negotiation power thinking the other side is wounded and more desperate after the by-election defeats. JD(U)'s strategy is to form a bloc-within-a-bloc with LJP and RLSP to insist on a something like  BJP 14 JD(U) 14 LJP 8 RLSP 4 seat sharing agreement.  With 22 MPs in Bihar (really 23 as one of the RLSP MPs have defected to BJP and is expecting to run for re-election on the BJP ticket) there is no chance BJP will accept this.

JD(U) as a result is passively threatening to take LJP and RLSP with JD(U) and run as a seperate bloc if BJP does not accept their demands.   JD(U) also put out stories like

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said to be seeking reconciliation with Lalu Yadav
https://scroll.in/article/881532/nitish-kumar-is-seeking-to-reconcile-with-lalu-yadav-but-the-bihar-cm-knows-hes-stuck-with-bjp

To put pressure on BJP.

In reality JD(U) has no way to go my projection is that BJP-JD(U) alliance will continue for 2019 with JD(U) accepting a junior position while RLSP will be sacrificed who will in turn defect to the RJD-INC bloc.

[jaichind]

Another potential alliance shock

AAP & Congress to form alliance in Delhi, Haryana and Punjab: Sources
http://www.abplive.in/india-news/aap-congress-to-form-alliance-in-delhi-haryana-and-punjab-sources-707681

At this stage AAP is pretty much reduced to a Greater Delhi party.  Most of the AAP nascent base in Maharashtra Goa, and Gujarat has mostly go over to the BJP.  What is ironic is that AAP was formed in 2013 as THE anti-INC anti-corruption party. Now to survive it is going for an alliance with an equally desperate INC.

The report says INC is willing to share 9 out of 30 seats out of  Delhi, Haryana and Punjab with AAP.  In my view Chandigarh should be part of that too since AAP has some strength there as well (Chandigarh being the joint capital of Punjab and Haryana.)  Given current AAP strength I imagine it would be something like 4 AAP seat out of 7 in Delhi, 3 out of 13 in Punjab and 2 out of 10 in Haryana.  One can argue that given how low AAP has fallen in Punjab and that AAP is actually a growing force in Haryana where it is having some success in going after BJP's Upper Caste base that it should be 2 out of 13 in Punjab and 3 out of 10 in Haryana. 

It would be interesting to see if this alliance gets pulled off.   If it does then AAP-INC might be competitive in Delhi as opposed to a BJP sweep.  I think a INC-AAP alliance in Punjab will most likely hurt INC than help but an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana would make it a fun 3 way equally matched battle between BJP, INLD-BSP and INC-AAP.

[jaichind]

Spick Media Network TN poll for LS and assembly elections

LS (1 seat tossup between AIADMK and AMMK)
DMK-INC   25 (DMK 24 INC1)
AIADMK      7
AMMK         6

Assembly
DMK-INC  130 (DMK 114 INC 16)
AIADMK     41
AMMK        57




I am surprised at how well TTV Dinakaran AIADMK splinter AMMK would do.  It seems that AMMK which is positioning itself must be eating partly into the anti-BJP vote that normally would go DMK with TTV Dinakaran positing itself as the anti-BJP faction of AIADMK.   With AMMK doing so well you would expect DMK+ to completely sweep the polls (like winning 35+ of the 39 LS seats) that it is not means that AMMK is getting DMK votes even as the split of AIADMK does ensure defeat of AIADMK.

In TN the anti-BJP sentiment is very strong.  I suspect in the end AIADMK might end up forming an alliance with BJP despite this.  I think the way AIADMK will figure it, given the clear BJP intervention in the AIADMK civil war, the anti-BJP vote already would view AIADMK as a puppet of the BJP so those votes are lost anyway.  So AIADMK might as well ally with BJP and scoop up the 3%-4% support BJP has in TN and hope the anti-BJP vote is split between DMK+ and AMMK.

[jaichind]

J&K's PDP-BJP coalition government broke down with BJP withdrawing support.  PDP CM  Mufti resigns as CM.  Most likely we are headed for mid-term polls.    Of course this was always the most bizarre alliances ever with Hindu nationalist BJP and Muslim separatist PDP in alliance.  With communal tensions on the rise recently BJP most likely figured that being in alliance with PDP would mean BJP would get crushed in Hindu areas to INC next election so it is better to get out now and hope to salvage some Hindu votes.

[jaichind]

It seems the BJP-JD(U) seat sharing discussions for Bihar are not going well.  BJP seems interested only in giving JD(U) 8-9 out of 40 seats bearing in mind that BJP has 22, LJP has 6, RLSP has 3 MPs already.   One of the 3 RLSP's MP already split from RLSP and will want to join NDA as a separate party.

To increase his leverage Nitish Kumar is putting out the message that be might do another U-turn and go back to RJD-INC alliance.   Nitish Kumar took JD(U) into NDA in 2017 on the premise that Modi cannot be defeated in 2019.  Then SP-BSP alliance in UP earlier this year has put that assumption in doubt.

INC seems eager to get JD(U) back, mostly as a counterweight to RJD as the dominate partner.  RJD is skeptical of a possible return of JD(U). Most likely this is a JD(U) ploy to get more seats but here are already rumors that JD(U)-RJD talks are ongoing where JD(U) will rejoin the RJD-INC alliance with Lalu Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav becoming Bihar CM and Nitish Kumar joining national politics by running against Modi in Varanasi in 2019. 

We will see over the next few weeks where BJP-JD(U) talks go and if Nitish Kumar will make yet another U-turn.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems that RLSP in talks with both NDA and UPA for seat sharing of the 40 LS seats.  There are plenty of rumors on the state of the talks.

In UPA it seems that it will be RJD 20 INC 10 HAM 4 RLSP 4 NCP 1 CPI 1.   Sharad Yadav's LJD will run one candidate under the RJD symbol (that of Sharad Yadav's son who will run in Sharad Yadav's old district Madhepura.)

So in de facto terms it will be

RJD  19
INC  10
HAM  4
RLSP 4
NCP   1
CPI    1
LJD   1

I had predicted back in March

RJD     24
INC     10
RLSP    3
HAM     2
NCP      1

So it seems RJD is willing to invest more in RLSP and HAM to get a larger coalition and hopefully gives it higher ROI in terms of elected seats.

In NDA it seems that it will be BJP 20 JD(U) 20 but JD(U) has to accommodate LJP with its quota and BJP will have to accommodate RLSP and other raw recruits parties.  Of course this is a face saving way of giving BJP more seats since RLSP most likely will leave NDA to join UPA. LJP will demand 6 which is the number of  MPs it has and could end up with 5 on the premise of one of its MPs have defected to RJD all but in name and that since BJP  has to give up seats it won in 2014 so should LJP.  BJP is willing to give RLSP 2 seats and 1 seat for RLSP spliter RSP(S).  BJP is also trying to get RJD splinter JAP to come aboard and for JAP leader  Pappu Yadav to run on the BJP symbol.    BJP is also trying to get Nishad based NSM to come aboard.  NSM leader Mukesh Sahni most likely will contest on the BJP symbol.   So in de facto terms assuming RLSP leaves NDA to join UPA the UPA seat distribution will be

BJP     17
JD(U)  15
LJP       5
JAP      1
RSP(S) 1
NSM     1

whereas I predicted

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        5

or

JD(U)   17
BJP      19
LJP        4

Which is mostly in line once we take into account some micro parties that BJP wanted to bring in.  This seat breakdown will be painful for BJP and JD(U) but especially for BJP since this means that BJP will have to get 5 incumbent BJP MPs to vacate their seats.  This could work IF the NDA is seen as being en route to victory in 2019 where a post-election NDA government can accommodate these 5 BJP MPs by giving them Upper House seats or governorship in the future.  If the NDA is seen as a bloc that could lose in 2019 then most likely these 5 BJP MPs will bolt and run as BJP rebels making a travesty of the NDA alliance.

[jaichind]

There was a vote of no confidence in the LS brought on by TDP a few days ago that Modi, as expected, won.  Looking at how each party voted gives us a sense of how the 2019 LS configuration will look like.

1) SHS abstained.  Most likely this means that chances SHS going on its own in 2019 has increased.
2) AIADMK voted for Modi.  It means that AIADMK-BJP alliance chances as increased.  Not sure where that leaves Rajinikanth's proto-RMM since another route for the BJP was the RMM-BJP alliance.   Given the toxic brand of the BJP in TN and AMMK splitting the AIADMK vote it seems a DMK-INC sweep is unavoidable.   AIADMK and BJP has to hope that AMMK also splits the anti-BJP vote from DMK-INC.
3) TRS abstained.  Most likely this means TRS will not be party of an anti-BJP Federal Front which inevitably will be pro-INC.  This sort of makes sense.  While in Telengana BJP is the enemy of the tomorrow for TRS, the enemy of today is clearly INC especially if INC-TDP forms an alliance.
4) BJD abstained.  This seems par for the course as BJD always had a pro-BJP lean vs INC.  Still it seems clear in that in Odisha INC is falling apart and that the main rival of BJD is BJP.  Could be that BJD does not believe in the INC collapse narrative and still sees 2019 as a 3 way battle between BJD, BJP and INC.

Of course this vote of no confidence is really a playoff among the opposition to see which party will be the main challenger to Modi.  Parties like SP BSP AITC wanted it to be a broad alliance with no leading party and INC clearly want it to be INC.

Rahul Gandhi did something that tried to shift the ground toward INC.  After giving a speech during the debate on the vote of no confidence where he tore up Modi, he went over to Modi's seat and hugged Modi saying that a true Hindu focused on love and not hate.

 

This shocked Modi who then gave a speech mostly attacking Rahul Gandhi and INC.  In that sense Rahul Gandhi achieved his main goal of getting Modi and BJP to focus on INC and marginalizing the other anti-BJP opposition parties.

[jaichind]

Some alliance developments:

1) INC has announced that in AP and Telangana it will peruse an alliance with TDP, something that many ruled out but I have been predicting since early 2018.  It is not clear if TDP is on board but if INC is coming out in announcing it then for now it is most likely on.  Not clear how the seat breakdown will go.  I assume INC will accommodate TDP in  Telangana where INC is stronger and TDP will accommodate INC in AP where TDP is stronger.  INC also in AP got its 2014 splinter JSP led by the former INC CM Kiran Kumar to merge JSP back into INC.

2) In UP there are rumors that SP BSP INC RLD are close to an Grand alliance deal for 2019 LS elections.  It seems that SP-BSP will give INC 8 seats who is still fighting for 10 seats.  If it is 8 it seems it will be BSP 35 SP 32 INC 8 RLD 3, with 2 seats going to minor parties like PECP and/or NISHAD.  I am still skeptical of this.  I suspect in the end INC will not take this deal and what will take place is INC will be given 5-6 seats with the understanding that INC can and will run in another 15-20 seats in opposition to the Grand Alliance.

3) In Bihar it seems that BJP and JD(U) are getting closer to a deal.  This is putting a lot of pressure on RLSP and LJP.  Both are raising issues unrelated to seat sharing in the situation that either one or both are compromised in terms of seat share they can quit NDA with a "honorable" cause.  RLSP is insisting that Nitish Kumar needs to step down in 2020 since he has been in office too long.  LJP is agitating on Dalit rights.   RLD-INC are putting out signals that they will welcome either or both of RLSP and LJP to come over to the RLD-INC alliance.

4) In MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh there are still ongoing talks between INC and (BSP and SP separately) on possible alliances.  Both BSP and SP are pushing for "package deals" where BSP-SP will accommodate INC in UP in exchange for INC accommodation in these 3 states.  In the end I do not think INC will do this.  All things equal INC is much more likely to try to form an alliance with BSP in inelastic  Chhattisgarh while it can count on elastic Rajasthan  and perhaps MP to swing to INC without such an alliance on an anti-BJP swing.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/india/congress-strategy-of-cementing-state-level-alliances-could-dent-rahul-gandhis-chances-of-becoming-prime-minister-4904411.html

Points out that if INC goes through with various proposed alliances then the number of seats the INC will contest in 2019 will be a record low



It made a chart of key states where there will be one or several INC allies and the number of seats INC is likely to contest

State      Alliance Partner   Total No. of Seats   No. of Seats Congress is likely to contest
Bihar                 RJD, HAM                   40                                     8-10
Uttar Pradesh     BSP, SP, RLD              80                                      8-10
West Bengal       AITC                         42                                      8-10
Tamil Nadu         DMK                         39                                       7-9
Andhra Pradesh   TDP                          25                                     8-10
Telangana           TDP                          17                                    10-12
Maharashtra        NCP                          48                                    24-26
J&K                     NC                             6                                        3
Jharkhand           JMM                          14                                    10-12
Karnataka           JD(S)                        28                                    20-22
Total                                                   339                                  106-124

Of course they should add

Kerela                UDF allies                 20                                      15

This list makes a lot of sense to me except for WB.  I think in WB in the end the BJP threat is not big enough to try to fuse the hostile INC and AITC vote bases.  INC is more likely to have an alliance with Left Front and contest 15-20 seats.  I also suspect in the end the UP alliance will be partial and INC will be allotted 6-8 seats by SP-BSP but then run in another 10-15 seats in a "friendly contest" with SP-BSP.

In Jharkhand I doubt JMM and JVM will let INC contest 10-12 seats.  More like 7 or at most 8.

[jaichind]

TN regional party DMK's 94 year old leader Karunanidhi pass away.


He first became CM of TN in 1969 and continued to hold that role and and off until 2011.  His son Stalin has been in charge of DMK for the last year or so.    Of course his other son Alagiri who is broken with the DMK and has been holding back on a full scale political attack of Stain mostly to not provoke  Karunanidhi could now make a final bid for supremacy in the DMK against Stalin.  He will not succeed but could damage DMK in the process. 

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/kcr-likely-to-opt-for-early-polls-telangana-may-vote-with-madhya-pradesh-rajasthan-and-chattisgarh-4947821.html

Looks like TRS might dissolve the Telangana assembly and call early elections for later this year along with MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.  I assume this is to make sure that INC-TDP alliance does not have time to be formed, worked out and gel at the ground.  INC-TDP alliance seems like the only way for TRS to be defeated.  With recent events which is pulling TRS and BJP together there might be a de facto even de jure TRS-BJP alliance in the upcoming assembly election.

[jaichind]

ABP News-CVoter  poll has INC well ahead in Rajasthan and slightly ahead in MP and Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan is pretty much lost for BJP.  For MP and Chhattisgarh the bad news for the BJP is that incumbents tends to under-perform their pre-election polling.  The good news is that Modi has not really gotten going on campaigning and Amit Shah as not started get involved in election strategy yet.  In such a close race that could turn the tide.

Rajasthan which is very elastic
   
           seats   vote share
BJP         57       36.8%
INC       130       50.8%
Others    13        12.4%





MP
           seats   vote share
BJP       106       40.1%
INC       117       41.7%
Others     7        18.2%




Chhattisgarh which is pretty inelastic
           seats   vote share
BJP        33       38.8%
INC       54        40.0%
Others     3       21.3%

[jaichind]

BJP is pushing to move toward a model where all LS and assembly elections are held at the same time which as the norm 1967 and before.  BJP seems to believe that with Modi at the helm a "Presidential" type election will favor it over the opposition and that holding assembly elections at the time would deny the opposition the chance to build up their ability to cooperate.

It seems one thing BJP will do is try to hold the 2019 assembly elections at the same time as the LS elections.  Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, AP and Telegana were already slated to run at the same time as the LS election.  The BJP would push to have Maharashtra, J&K, Haryana, and Jharkhand which are all rule by the BJP (J&K are under governor rule so its the same thing) to held earlier with the LS election. 

In theory BJP could also have other BJP ruled states like Assam, Goa, UP, and Uttarakhand to also hold their assembly election earlier to be  in early 2019 with LS election.  Of course the local BJP MLAs will oppose this saying why should they face early re-election.

[jaichind]

Former BJP PM (for 1998-2004) Atal Bihari Vajpayee passed away.  In 2002 during the Gujarat riots he wanted to remove Modi from the CM position.  Vajpayee inter-party rival and DPM L. K. Advani blocked this act.  Of course then in 2013 Modi pushed aside his benefactor Advani  to become the leader of the BJP.