India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

The INC split of 1969 where the anti-Indira Gandhi faction split out into INC(O) lead to a realignment where INC(O) joined forces with the opposition which was tested in the 1971 midterm LS elections.  Here Indira Gandhi's turn to the Left turned a good part of the Socialist and even Communist vote toward INC while the Princely class shifted further toward BJS.  Overall the BJS-SWA-INC(O)-BKD-SSP national grand alliance flopped but managed to do well in MP where the power of the Princely class carried the anti-INC bloc even as INC won a landslide victory in tribal Chhattisgarh.

1971 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            27               12               44.24%

BJS+          27              15                47.87% (INC(O) and SSP were part of BJS+)

PSP             8                 0                 1.47%

CPI             3                 0                  1.05%


1971 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          10               10               52.42%

INC rebel                        0                 1.48%

BJS+         10                 0                30.22% (INC(O) was part of BJS+)

BJS rebel                        0                 1.75%

In MP the INC(O) was strong enough which when add to the large scale Princely class support for BJS+ to get an edge over INC.  In Chhattisgarh the shift of the PSP+ vote base over to INC plus the already large INC base gave it an easy victory over BJS+.

In the 1972 MP assembly elections the PSP and SSP reunited into SP and ran separately from BJS. 
 INC(O) ran separately as well but most of the INC(O) base went back to INC.   The split of the anti-INC vote plus the swing toward INC in the afterglow of the 1971 LS landslide gave the INC a landslide majority.

[jaichind]

After the INC restoration of 1971-1972 of course we had the Indira Gandhi emergency of 1975-1977 followed by the merger of all non-Communist opposition into JNP to take on INC in the 1977 LS elections.  Like the rest of Northern India INC was smashed by JNP in MP by a combination of a swing away from INC and the consolidation of the ant-INC vote.

1977 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           29               2               34.90%

JNP+           29             27               60.02% (RPI(K) was part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       0                 0.74%

CPI               2              0                  0.60%


1977 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 0               37.23%

JNP           11               11               56.71%

JNP rebel                       0                 2.19%

INC did better in tribal Chhattisgarh  but such was the size of the anti-INC wave it did not matter and INC was crushed there as well.  Right after the 1977 LS elections MP held assembly elections where JNP also won by a landslide but with a reduced vote share.  Given the core of JNP in MP was dominated by BJS, the CMs that took over after 1977 MP assembly election had a BJS background.

[jaichind]

The 1977 JNP government soon splintered even as the INC split into pro-Indira Gandhi faction (INC) and anti-Indira faction (INC(U)).  The political chaos led to the mid-term elections of 1980 which INC won in a restoration election for Indira Gandhi's INC as JNP splintering split the anti-INC vote.

1980 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              25               49.05%

JNP            29               4                34.09%

JNP(S)       23               0                  8.36% (had tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)        9                0                 1.66% (had tactical alliance with JNP(S))


1980 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               51.07%

JNP           11                  0               22.47%

JNP rebel                        0                 4.60%

JNP(S)        7                  0                 5.98% (had tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)        4                  0                1.95% (had tactical alliance with JNP(S))

CPI+          4                  0                 2.42% (CPM and RPI(K) were part of CPI+)

Basically with anti-BJS faction of JNP forming JNP(S) JNP in MP and Chhattisgarh was basically the old BJS plus some INC(O) members that did not move back to INC.   In Chhattisgarh these results were mostly reversion to 1971 results as far as INC support goes but in MP INC far exceeded its 1971 performance as the old INC(O) bloc of 1971 had by this point moved back to INC.

The new INC government at the center called for new assembly elections in MP which saw the INC return to power.  To ensure locality of the INC branch in MP and Chhattisgarh, a Indira Gandhi loyalist Arjun Singh was put in charge as the new CM of MP.
 

[jaichind]

After the 1980 elections BJP split out from JNP while JNP(S) renamed itself LKD.  The assassination of Indira Gandhi triggered early LS elections in 1984 which was a massive INC landslide in Northern India due to the sympathy factor and splintered opposition.    It was no different in MP and Chhattisgarh where INC surged to landslide levels well beyond 1971 and 1980 especially in MP.

1984 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              29               56.08%

BJP            29                0               31.93%

JNP+          17                0                3.54%

LKD             9                0                 1.32%


1984 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               60.11%

BJP           11                  0               24.16%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.67%

JNP            7                  0                 3.13%

CPI            3                   0                2.39%

proto-BSP  2                  0                  1.71%


The 1985 MP assembly election was a similar story with INC coming back to power with a massive majority.   Arjun Singh was swapped by out INC high command as CM but was brought back in as CM later in the term.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are you a BJP supporter

[jaichind]

Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

[jaichind]

After the 1984-1985 INC landslide things went downhill for INC.  Due to corruption scandals an anti-Rajiv Gandhi faction led VP Singh of INC split and merged with JNP and LKD to form JD.  In the 1989 LS elections JD formed and alliance with Left Front and had tactical alliances with the BJP.  This plus the swing away from INC led to a hung parliament in 1989 with INC taking significant setbacks in Northern India.

1989 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29                5               36.99%

INC rebel                       0                 0.92%

BJP            25               21              43.22% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

DDP          26                0                 1.62% (Hindu based party)

JD+           10                2                 6.92% (CPI was part of JD+, had tactical alliance with BJP)

JD rebel                         1                1.23%

BSP           25                0                4.06% (Dalit based party)


1989 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 3               39.76%

BJP+           9                 6               32.58%

BJP rebel                        0                1.14% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+            6                 2               16.14% (CPI was part of JD+, had tactical alliance with BJP+)

BSP          10                 0                 4.91% (Dalit based party)

BSP taking Dalit votes added to the INC defeat.  BJP relatively stronger in MP while INC and JD+ relatively stronger in tribal Chhattisgarh with JD+ strength coming from INC defectors.  JD formed the national government with regional parties and outside support from BJP.

The 1990 MP assembly election saw a similar pattern as 1989 LS elections as BJP are still allies of JD and saw similar results with INC beaten by the JD-BJP tactical alliance.

MP 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230              34               33.00%

INC rebel                         2                3.01%

BJP+         208             170              42.07% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

BJP rebel                        2                 0.76%

JD+           90               19                 7.57% (had tactical alliance with BJP+ and CPI+)

CPI+          47                1                 1.08% (CPM was part of CPI+, had tactical alliance with JD+)

BSP         130                 0                 3.60%


Chhattisgarh 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          90              23               35.35%

INC rebel                        2                1.71%

BJP+         75               53               35.67% (had tactical alliance with JD)

BJP rebel                       0                 1.36%

JD            34                 9                 9.73% (had tactical alliance with BJP+ and CPI+)

CPI+        21                 2                 2.59% (had tactical alliance with JD)

BSP         53                  1                 3.37%

CMM         8                   0                 0.54% (Chhattisgarh regionalist)

The result was a replication of the 1989 LS election results with a BJP majority and a BJP CM being installed.

[jaichind]

The JD+ government at the center soon fell apart in 1990 as BJP withdrew support over the Ram temple issue and JD(S) split from JD.  As a result the 1991 LS elections were called which was dominated by the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.  BJP was most likely headed to a sweep in MP and a solid performance in Chhattisgarh based on Upper caste and OBC swing toward BJP but the sympathy factor drove MP into a tie and a sweep for INC in Chhattisgarh as INC came close to a absolute majority overall.

1991 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              16               44.47%

BJP            29               12              43.20%

BSP           12                1                 3.28%

JD+           29                0                 4.58% (CPI was part of JD+)

JD(S)         25               0                  0.66%


1991 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               47.99%

BJP           11                 0                37.84%

BSP            9                 0                 4.33%

JD+          11                 0                 4.93% (CPI and CPM were part of JD+)

JD(S)         9                  0                 0.79%

The JD vote collapsed in the parts of Northern India where BJP was traditionally strong which included MP and  Chhattisgarh.  The new INC government at the center soon had to deal with the Ram temple riots in late 1992 which led it to dismiss the BJP government in MP which lead to early assembly elections in MP.

MP 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230             121               41.12% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        4                  1.14%

BJP           230               87               40.05%

BJP rebel                        2                  1.30%

JD            167                4                  3.76%

KSM            4                 1                  0.28% (de facto JD splinter)

BSP         198               10                  6.83%

CPI+         48                 1                  1.05% (CPM was part of CPI+)


Chhattisgarh 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            90              54               40.39%

INC rebel                       2                 2.64%

BJP            90              30               35.52%

BJP rebel                       0                 1.26%

JD             68                0                 2.96%

BSP           88                1                 7.68%

CPI+         31                2                 1.99% (CPM was part of CPI+)

CMM         23                 1                1.54%

INC emerged with a majority over the BJP although the margin was not great.  INC installed the fairly young Digvijaya Singh who is fairly aligned with the Rajiv Gandhi faction of INC as well as coming from a princely family as the new CM of MP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

Why arent the other factions more economically populist and socially conservative.


While I hoped Modi would be the Reagan or Thatcher of India , I just dont think that possible so he's the best India's got at the moment.

[jaichind]

The 1996 LS elections saw significant anti-incumbent surge which hit INC along with an pro-Gandhi clan faction splinter party AIIC led by former MP INC CM Arjun Singh.  The result was the INC losing ground to BJP and leading to a hung parliament.

1996 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               4               28.94%

AIIC+         24               2                 7.25% (INC splinter MPVC was part of AIIC+)

BJP            28              21               42.82%

BSP           21               2                  8.45%

JD               7               0                  1.40%


1996 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               36.61%

INC rebel                       1                 2.00%

AIIC         10                 0                 3.31%

BJP          11                 6                37.29%

CPI+         5                  0                 2.83% (JD was part of CPI+)

Given that AIIC had its core in MP this is where AIIC did the most damage to INC.  The BSP surge also ate into the INC dalit vote base.  Despite this INC's strength with tribal area led it to fight BJP to a draw in Chhattisgarh. 

The 1996 LS election led to a JD+ government at the center with INC support to lock out BJP.  This arrangement did not last long and mid-term LS elections were held in 1998.  With Sonia Gandhi taking an active role in INC the pro-Gandhi AIIC rebellion ended and returned to the fold.  The 1998 LS elections saw a surge for BJP in Northern India which washed out the effect of AIIC coming back into INC.

1998 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               6               38.81%

BJP            29              23               46.17%

BSP           26                0                9.17%

JD             15                0                1.48%

SP+          12                 0               1.05%


1998 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               41.10%

BJP           11                 7               44.46%

BSP            9                 0                 7.34%

GGP            6                0                 2.06% (tribal Chhattisgarh regionalism)

CPI            3                 0                  1.83%

The worrying trend for INC here is the rise of BSP which took away enough INC Dalit votes to give the BJP an upper hand even against an fairly united INC.  This will be a harbinger for the future.  As it is overall BJP led alliance came close to a majority as the JD vote collapsed.  JD ally TDP switched sides to give the BJP a government at the center for the first time in its history. 

[jaichind]

Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

Why arent the other factions more economically populist and socially conservative.


While I hoped Modi would be the Reagan or Thatcher of India , I just dont think that possible so he's the best India's got at the moment.

I think Modi is mostly talk and very little action.  Of course he is contained by the economically populist and socially conservative factions of the BJP.  Talks of economic reform mostly stayed talk.  A lot of the Modi reforms were planned under the UPA government.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

Why arent the other factions more economically populist and socially conservative.


While I hoped Modi would be the Reagan or Thatcher of India , I just dont think that possible so he's the best India's got at the moment.

I think Modi is mostly talk and very little action.  Of course he is contained by the economically populist and socially conservative factions of the BJP.  Talks of economic reform mostly stayed talk.  A lot of the Modi reforms were planned under the UPA government.

My Dad has also had this criticism of Modi but he also said that other factions of  BJP are worse and the INC is just horrible in every way so Modi is the best India’s got at the moment

[jaichind]

After the BJP came into power at the center in the aftermath of the 1998 LS elections the anti-incumbency table got turned on BJP.   INC MP CM Digvijaya Singh was able to turn this to his advantage and was able to win the 1998 MP assembly election despite anti-incumbency at the state level.  

MP 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230             126              41.03%  (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         4                2.13%

BJP            230              83              38.98%

BJP rebel                         0                0.93%

BSP           121                8                6.29%

JD             111                1                2.30%

JD rebel                          2                 0.44%

SP               87               4                 2.14%

CPI+          20                0                 0.85% (CPM was part of CPI+)


Chhattisgarh 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              48               40.78%

INC rebel                        3                 3.31%

BJP             90              36               40.12%

BJP rebel                        0                 0.48%

BSP            49                3                 5.76%

CPI            18                 0                 1.18%

GGP           43                1                 1.92%

CMM          13                0                 0.73%


Despite the INC victory the BJP has pretty much pulled even with INC in Chhattisgarh which pretty much turned this proto-state from a lean INC state to a total tossup at the state level going forward.

Soon after the MP assembly elections the BJP government led by  Vajpayee fell due ti the defection of TN's AIADMK.  This led to the 1999 LS election where the sympathy wave for the way Vajpayee was pulled down propelled the BJP and allies to an absolute majority.  In MP it was mostly a wash relative to 1998 as the honeymoon period for the recently re-election INC government was able to blunt the  Vajpayee  wave.

1999 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               8               44.11%

BJP            29              21              46.11%

BSP           20               0                5.34%

SP+           17               0                2.05%


1999 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 3              43.36%

BJP           11                  8             47.90%

BSP           7                  0               4.93%

CPI            1                  0               0.89%

The polarization of the  Vajpayee  wave meant that the BSP vote was squeezed.  What is problematic for the INC is that the vote lost by BSP seems to have gone evenly to BJP and INC.  The reason why INC lost in MP and Chhattisgarh LS elections in 1996 and 1998 was because of the INC votes lost to BSP.  With BSP on the decline the INC should have regained the upper hand.  The fact it did not means that both MP and  Chhattisgarh  are trending BJP.  INC will not win the LS contests in either MP and  Chhattisgarh again as of 2014 LS elections.

[jaichind]

My Dad has also had this criticism of Modi but he also said that other factions of  BJP are worse and the INC is just horrible in every way so Modi is the best India’s got at the moment

The party I would support in India which would be the INC Right-wing splinter Swatantra Party of the 1960s no longer exists.  SWA declined and then merged into BLD which in turn merged into JNP along with BJS which is proto-BJP.  When JNP broke up in 1980 what is left of the old SWA mostly joined up with BJP.  So I would count myself as the tiny SWA faction of BJP. 

The way I see it for me in India it is: Manmohan Singh > Vajpayee >  Modi > Sonia/Rahul Gandhi

Of course all of them are trapped by the Indian political tradition of populism.  In the 1989-2009 period over 80% of the state and national government are defeated in re-election campaigns.  So what is the point of long term economic reform.  Just steal as much as you can while you are in power which you will lose regardless of what you do. 

In fact if I was a leader of a sizable opposition party at the state level during this period, my main campaign plank would be
1) Free power for all farmers
2) Loan forgiveness for all farmers
3) Free laptops for all students in school (before the 2000s it would be free school lunch)

As for who would pay for this, worry about it later and do a half ass job implementing these promises using your cronies to route cash to yourself and your political friends since you are doomed to lose the next election regardless.  Opposition parties that promise something like this seems to win most of the time.  Of course the former ruling party now in opposition will just promise the same for the next election which you will lose.

[jaichind]

After the 1999 LS elections MP was officially broken up into Mp and Chhattisgarh.  Digvijaya Singh continued as the INC CM of MP while INC selected tribal leader Ajit Jogi to be the CM of Chhattisgarh.


Both MP and Chhattisgarh had their assembly elections in late 2013.  In both states INC had to deal with anti-incumbency.  In Chhattisgarh INC splinter NCP (led by long time INC leader VC Shukla who was a rival of Ajit Jogi) and other INC rebels sunk INC in a very close race while in MP Digvijaya Singh tried to run a BJP-lite campaign and was soundly defeated.  

MP 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230              38              31.68% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        2                1.07%

NCP          105                1                1.27% (INC splinter)

BJP           230            173              42.50%

JD(U)         36                1                0.55%

BSP          157                2                7.26%

SP+          162                7               3.79%

GGP+         62                2               2.12%

RSD+        56                 2               1.38% (backward caste based)

CPI+         26                 1               0.56%




Chhattisgarh 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              37               36.71%

INC rebel                        0                 0.91%

NCP            89                1                 7.02%

BJP             90              50                39.26%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.14%

BSP            54               2                  4.45%

SP              52               0                  0.95%

GGP           41               0                  1.60%

CPI             18               0                 1.08%



BJP victories in both MP and Chhattisgarh  brought in BJP firebrand Uma Bharti as CM of MP

and upper caste and low key Raman Singh as CM of Chhattisgarh  


Buoyed by the assembly election victories led the BJP to call for 2004 elections 6 month early which while BJP did well in non-UP Northern India was soundly beaten by INC elsewhere leading to a INC led UPA government at the center.  In MP and Chhattisgarh the BJP did well as expected but it was not enough to help BJP win re-election at the center.

2004 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               4               34.07%

BJP            29              25              48.13%

BSP+         29               0                4.88% (NCP was part of BSP+)

SP             29               0                 3.20%

GGP          15                0                3.05%


2004 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              40.16%

BJP           11                10              47.78%

BSP          11                  0               4.54%

SP            10                  0               1.10%

To protest an INC led bloc from choosing Sonia Gandhi as PM (a role she later renounced) MP CM Uma Bharti resigned plunging the BJP into crisis.    After a year of a stand in, the BJP eventually choose Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the CM of MP who turned out to be a much effective political operator than Uma Bharti


As a result of this crisis Uma Bharti fell out with BJP and formed her own BJP splinter BJS.

[jaichind]

With INC led government installed at the center the MP and Chhattisgarh BJP governments faced re-election in 2008.  While both faced anti-incumbency and in MP BJP faced the threat of former BJP CM Uma Bharti's BJS splinter, there were also anti-incumbency directed toward the INC government at the center so the result was the INC making gains in terms of vote share but not enough to dislodge the two BJP state governments.

MP 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         229              71              32.60% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        2                0.81%

BJP           230             143              37.79%

BJP rebel                        1                0.66%

BJS           201               5                 4.71% (BJP splinter)

BSP           228               7                8.97%

SP            187                1                1.99%

GGP           88                0                1.69%



Chhattisgarh 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              38               39.12% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 0.94%

BJP             90               50               40.32%

BJP rebel                        0                 0.80%

BSP            90                2                 6.11%

GGP            54                0                 1.59%

CPI             21                0                 1.12%



In Chhattisgarh INC learned its lesson from NCP splitting the vote in 2003 and got NCP to join it in an alliance.  Atlas BJP CM Raman Singh was fairly popular and able to blunt the combined assault of INC-NCP with a narrow win.   What also hurt INC was the BSP surge which in part spurred by the BSP victory in UP in 2007 and drove Dalit votes toward BSP given the proximity of UP and MP/Chhattisgarh.

The 2009 LS election saw INC and allies gain relative to BJP and saw INC make gains in MP but not so much in inelastic Chhattisgarh.

2009 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            28              12               40.14%

BJP            29              16               43.45%

BSP            28               1                 5.85%

SP              18               0                 2.83%




2009 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              37.31%

BJP           10                11             45.03%

BJP rebel                        0               3.06%

BSP          11                  0               4.52%

GGP           5                  0               0.70%



BJP rebel Uma Bharti's BJS went nowhere in 2009 LS election and merged her party back into the BJP fold by 2011.

[jaichind]

The INC led UPA government at the center after its re-election in 2009 ran into all sorts of problems with corruption scandals which weighed down the popularity of INC across the board.  INC was especially hurt in Chhattisgarh  when in May 2013 the entire senior leadership of INC with the exception of former INC CM Ajit Jogi were killed in a Naxal attack.  While this generated some sympathy for the INC it was not organized to take advantage of it.   As a result the 2013 assembly elections went to the BJP given the relative popularity of BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan in MP and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh.

MP 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230              58              37.18%

INC rebel                        2               1.27%

BJP           230             165             45.74%

BJP rebel                        1               0.54%

BSP          227                4               6.41%

SP            164                0               1.22%

GGP           63                0               1.02%




Chhattisgarh 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            90              39              41.57%

BJP            90              49              42.34%

BJP rebel                       1                0.88%

BSP           90                1                4.41%

GGP          44                0                1.62%

CSM         54                0                 1.78%



The return of BJS in MP clearly helped the BJP while the decline of BSP from 2008 should have helped INC but there seems to be a swing away from INC toward BJP due to the unpopularity of the INC at the center.   In Chhattisgarh  INC had tried to sideline  former INC CM Ajit Jogi but had to rely on him after its main senior leadership were killed in May 2013.  The result shows that Ajit Jogi had limited appeal beyond the core INC tribal vote and could not expand out into the BJP caste Hindu vote.

Of course the BJP victory in 2013 was only a buildup of the great Modi wave of 2014 which was a combination of a surge for Modi and the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind the BJP (most of the time) in the 2014 LS elections.  The result was a massive BJP victory over INC in both MP and Chhattisgarh.

2014 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               2               35.35%

BJP            29              27               54.76%

BSP           29               0                  3.85%

AAP           29               0                  1.19%



2014 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              39.09%

BJP           10               10               49.66%

BSP           10                0                2.44%

AAP           10                0                1.17%



In Chhattisgarh   INC actually gained vote share relative to 2009 partly due to the fall of the BSP vote share but was still swamped by the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind BJP.  In MP the BJP saw a vote share landslide not seen since the 1984 LS INC landslide victory.

[jaichind]

A review of the election history of MP and Chhattisgarh leads to the following trends/conclusions.

1) MP has a heavy BJP lean but is fairly elastic
2) INC is stronger in Chhattisgarh but the state is fairly inelastic

Both trends seems to indicate that INC will have a shot at winning in both states.  INC's attempt to form a grand alliance have failed.  In many ways INC going it alone is a prerequisite to a 2019 LS election grand alliance since the 2018 assembly elections will test out the INC BSP SP relative strengths in non-UP Northern India so they can negotiate a possible anti-BJP alliance in UP and other parts of Northern India. 

In MP it seems that it will be BJP vs INC vs BSP vs SP-GGP
In Chhattisgarh  it seems that it will be BJP vs INC vs JCC-BSP vs SP-GGP

It seems that BSP and SP-GGP are on the downswing in MP so the election there will be bipolar.  In Chhattisgarh it is not clear how strong INC rebel Ajit Jogi's JCC will be and how much JCC will eat into the INC tribal vote and potentially into the BJP tribal vote.   I suspect it will end up a dud given the historical bipolar nature of Chhattisgarh.

INC is counting on the following chart for it to win.  A review of MP/Chhattisgarh assembly election results when considering the center and state incumbant party yields the following chart:

             Center             State
Year     Incumbent      Incumbent        Winner
1972       INC                 INC                 INC
1977       JNP                 INC                 JNP
1980       INC                 JNP                 INC
1985       INC                 INC                 INC
1990       JD                   INC                 BJP
1993       INC                 BJP                 INC
1998       BJP                 INC                 INC
2003       BJP                 INC                 BJP
2008       INC                 BJP                 BJP
2013       INC                 BJP                 BJP
2018       BJP                 BJP                 

So this assembly election in MP and Chhattisgarh will be the first even that the BJP will face anti-incumbency at BOT the federal and state level.   The only time since the 1960s that a party has won facing both federal AND state anti-incumbency would be INC in 1972 and 1985.  Both years are peaks of INC power.  1972 was the Indira Gandhi wave over her victory over Pakistan in 1971 and Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 over the sympathy wave of Indira Gandhi's assassination.   BJP's only weapon now is Modi who is popular but does not seem compatible to INC 1972 or INC 1985.

Of course the flip side is if INC cannot win in MP and  Chhattisgarh then its decline since 2013 might be seen as terminal and it will be out of the running in 2019 LS elections and worse, lose its position is the main opposition for all other anti-BJP parties to rally around.    If BJP wins in MP and Chhattisgarh then it cannot be beaten in 2019 LS elections.  If INC wins in MP and Chhattisgarh then BJP will most likely still win in 2019 but would be beatable.  The key for INC is not 2019 but 2024 when a strong INC led by Rahul Gandhi could win back national party.  The 2018 assembly elections are about INC's ability to stay relevant in 2019 and gives it a ticket to win in 2024. 

[jaichind]

One thing that will get in the way of INC in MP is that it has no clear face for CM candidate.   In theory INC has two realistic CM candidates.  First is Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia who is the nephew of beleaguered Rajasthan BJP CM Vasundhara Raje

And the other is veteran INC MP leader Kamal Nath

 
It seems Rahul Gandhi favors Jyotiraditya Scindia while the INC old guards what circles around Sonia Gandhi prefers Kamal Nath.  I guess it will come down to if INC wins which one of the two is seen as getting more credit for the victory.  Also if INC has a very strong election night across the board that tends to strength Rahul Gandhi's hand and he will have a free hand to put in Jyotiraditya Scindia despite the view in the INC hierarchy that "it is not his turn yet."

The IndiaTV-CNX  poll that came out recently had

BJP   128
INC    85
BSP     8
Others 9


And had support for CM at

BJP CM Chouhan  41%
INC Scindia          22%
INC Nath             18%


Pre-election polls tend to be skewed in favor of the incumbent party and for the two INC CM candidates support to add up to around the same as the sitting CM means that BJP will be in for a tough fight.  It dose seems that Scindia  and Nath are equally matched in terms of popular support.

[jaichind]

News Nation polls for MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh

MP (BJP and INC neck to neck)

BJP      111
INC     109
Others   10



Rajasthan (INC clear lead)

INC    115
BJP      73
Others  12



Chhattisgarh (small BJP lead and possible hung assembly)

BJP         45
INC        38
JCC-BSP   5
Others     2

(BTW, there is a problem with this image)  Since JCC+ includes BSP then the 2013 results for JCC+ should be 1 and not 0 since BSP won 1 seat in 2013.

If these poll results are accurate then given the fact that the incumbent party tends to over-poll the INC should win with ease in Rajasthan  and get narrow wins in MP and Chhattisgarh.

[jaichind]

The next state to look at is Telangana. 

It is impossible to talk about Telangana without talking about the history of AP which Telangana was part of in the 1956-2013 period.  Telangana is based on the old Muslim princely state of Hyderabad Deccan.


After Independence, there was an attempt by the Muslim rules of  Hyderabad Deccan to either join Pakistan or declare independence as an Islamic state.  The local CPI was incremental in working with the new Indian government to stop this and  Hyderabad state became part of India.  CPI as a result became fairly powerful in Hyderabad.
 

In 1956 India reorganized into language based states.  The Telegu speaking part of Hyderabad which included the large city of Hyderabad was merged into AP while the Marathi speaking part of Hyderabad state merged into the new state of Maharashtra which was carved out of Bombey.
 

There were grave concerns in Hyderabad about being merged into AP and being outnumbered by the rest of AP.  The central government assured Hyderabad that within AP there will be great autonomy and went ahead with creating AP.


The promises of autonomy for the areas of AP which were a part of Hyderabad went unfulfilled.  The city of Hyderabad is quite wealthy but the area around it poorer than the rest of AP.  The way the united AP was run was a lot of revenue from Hyderabad went to benefit the rest of AP and not the poorer parts around Hyderabad.   This lead to a movement to create a state of  Telangana around the old state of Hyderabad.  This movement surged in the early 1970s before dissipating.  Then it surged again in 2004 which after 9 years of political struggle finally pushed the INC led UPA government to create a new state of  Telangana.

[jaichind]

The electoral history of AP after its formation in 1956 was one of INC domination as the anti-INC vote was split between the center-right parties (BJP, SWA), Socialists (PSP SSP) and Communists (CPI CPM) up to the early 1970s.

Because of the Telangana issue Telangana and the rest of AP always voted differently  Namely due to the 1947 CPI action to foil an attempt to create an independent Hyderabad the CPI is fairly strong in Telangana.  Also since  Hyderabad was the capital of the old  Muslim Hyderabad Deccan princely state, Hyderabad itself have cluster of Muslim dominated section which made it possible for a communal Muslim party (AIMIM) to exists.  As a reaction to a Muslim communal AIMIM BJS/BJP is also strong in Telangana.  In the rest of AP it tends to be INC domination with a badly splinted and weak Center-Right(SWA BJS), Communists(CPI CPM) and Socialists (PSP SSP).  

The 1971 LS election which saw a massive victory for INC nationally saw the first surge the Telangana movement where an INC pro-Telangana splinter formed TPS and defeated INC in Telangana while INC won a massive landslide in the rest of AP.

1971 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          25                25             67.95% (had tactical alliance with CPI)

CPI              8                  1               6.39% (had tactical alliance with INC+)

INC(O)+     25                 0              19.29% (SWA and BJS were part of INC(O)+)

CPM             3                 0                1.81%


1971 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          14                 4              35.88% (had tactical alliance with CPI)

CPI               3                0                4.96% (had tactical alliance with INC+)

TPS            14               10              45.28% (pro-Telangana INC splinter)

INC(O)+      11               0                4.33% (SSP BJS were part of INC(O)+)

CPM             2                1                5.01%

INC(O) was the anti-Indira faction of INC and so were were the opposition to INC in AP that INC(O) became the main opposition to INC in 1971.  In Telangana it was TPS that played that role as all the anti-INC vote concentrated around TPS.  CPI had an tactical alliance with INC nationally and was the case in AP and Telangana as well.

After the 1971 LS elections INC got TPS to merge back into INC with more promises of autonomy for  Telangana which mostly went unfulfilled.  In the 1972 assembly election with TPS back in the fold the INC won a massive majority over the hapless opposition.

One of the INC CM of this period was P. V. Narasimha Rao who later was about to retire in 1991 but then became INC PM of India after Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in 1991-1996.

[jaichind]

Between 1972 and 1977 of course we had the Indira Gandhi triggered emergency if 1975-1977 which mostly affected Northern India but had little impact in Southern India.  The calling of the 1977 LS election had all non-Communist opposition merging into JNP.  In the 1977 LS election INC was crushed in Northern India but will routed JNP and other opposition parties in Southern India.

1977 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                25             56.50%

CPI             5                  0               1.63%

JNP+         26                  1             39.19% (CPM was part of JNP+)


1977 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          16               16              59.04%

CPI              5                 0                4.68%

JNP+          16                 0              32.20% (CPM was part of JNP+)

AIMIM          1                 0               1.61% (Hyderabad based Muslim communal party)

CPI broke off its tactical alliance with INC in 1977 while CPM joined forces with JNP (at least in AP and Telangana) but it was not avail as INC still won here in a landslide.  Of course nationally INC was crushed and a JNP government took over at the center.  

The loss of power triggered a crisis in INC which split into a pro-Indiira Gandhi faction (INC(I)) and an anti-Indira Gandhi faction (INC).  The 1978 assembly elections saw a 3 way battle between INC(I) INC and JNP with INC(I) emerging with a small majority and clearly the stronger of the two INC parties.

1978 AP  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     184             110             39.01%

INC(I) rebel                     6               2.85%

INC+        181                21            18.88% (CPI was part of INC+)

JNP+        187                49            34.26% (CPM and RPI(K) were part of JNP+)


1978 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)      107                65             39.92%

INC(I) rebel                     3               3.68%

INC+       107                15             21.13% (CPI was part of INC+)

JNP+       107                20             27.44% (CPM and RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0               1.40%

CPI(ML)     1                   1               0.22%

AIMIM      11                  3               1.79%

In AP, JNP was mostly INC(O) anyway so we can see the AP part of the assembly election as INC(I) vs INC vs INC(O).  In Telangana where BJS was much stronger JNP was more a combination of INC(O) and BJS while CPM and CPI are also much stronger so there it is not a pure INC vs INC vs INC.  Anyway the result of the assembly election is that INC(I) formed the government and and showed that it is the "real INC" which in turn extended the political power of Indira Gandhi.

Then at the center in 1979 JNP also split into JNP (mostly BJS SWA INC(O)) and JNP(S) (mostly various Socialists and BLD) and as a result the 1980 LS election was called which led to the return of Indira Gandhi's INC(I) (now called INC since it became seen as the "real INC") in power at the center.  The INC of 1978 which is the anti-Indira Gandhi INC is now called INC(U).

1980 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                25              55.77%

JNP           20                  0              17.21%

JNP(S)+    26                  1              22.40% (INC(U) CPM CPI were part of JNP(S))


1980 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16               16              57.03%

JNP           11                0               11.88%

JNP(S)+    15                0               16.33% (INC(U) and CPI were part of JNP(S)+, tactical alliance with CPM)

CPM           2                 0                 4.41% (tactical alliance with JNP(S))

AIMIM        2                 0                 2.08%

The 1980 LS results in AP and Telangana was mostly a repeat of 1977 results with the anti-INC opposition how split into JNP and JNP(S) blocs.  Most of the INC(U) support from 1978 mostly went back to INC.  The feeling in INC and in opposition parties in AP and Telangana after 1980 LS elections the INC was pretty much invincible given the split of the opposition and large INC vote base.  The events of the 1980s were to show this was totally incorrect.

[Lachi]

Looks like the NDA is being taken down state by state, nice to see

[jaichind]

Looks like the NDA is being taken down state by state, nice to see

I would not count chickens before they hatch.  The betting markets seem to believe, by a large margin, that INC will capture Rajasthan but BJP will retain MP and Chhattisgarh.

It just seems to me that this is unlikely and that even if BJP wins in both MP and Chhattisgarh it will be close.  I suspect both states are at best 50/50 for BJP retaining power.