India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

[jaichind]

Counting continues

INC lead in MP and Rajasthan still seems narrow.  In Rajasthan it seems Modi was a factor and poor ticket distribution by INC did hurt the INC in the end.

With INC losing Mizoram now the INC is completely swept out of the Northeast which has been completely taken over by the BJP and its allies.  Ironic as BJP is the Hindu nationalist party and the Northeast is mostly Christian outside of Assam.

I need to look into the vote breakdown for Telengana when it is available.  I am still confused on how the INC-TDP-TJS-CPI bloc and be beaten so badly in relativity inelastic Telengana.  Could be the TDP brand is so toxic due to the view that TDP is THE AP party that it just dragged down the entire INC+ bloc.   

MP(209/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC          103           +50
BJP            94            -56
BSP             6             +3
Others         6             +3 (2 IND, 1 AAP, 1 MD, 1 GGP, 1 SP)


Rajasthan(193/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+       100            +79
BJP           76             -80
BSP            3             --
Others      14             -- (8 IND, 3 RLP, 1 BTP, 2 CPM)


Telengana(119/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         82            +19
INC+       25             -12
BJP           6              +1
Others       6              -8 (4 AIMIM, 1 BSP, 1 CPM)


Chhattisgarh(86/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          52            +14
BJP          25             -22
BSP+         6              +5
Others       3              +3 (2 API, 1 GGP)


Mizoram(40/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         25           +21
INC          10           -24
BJP            1             +1
Others       4             +3 (3 ZPM, 1 IND)

[jaichind]

Counting continues

MP looks like takes MP and Rajasthan narrowly. More likely than not the INC lead will grow from here.

MP(220/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC          112           +56
BJP            95            -62
BSP             5             +1
Others         8             +5 (5 IND, 1 AAP,, 1 GGP, 1 SP)


Rajasthan(196/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+       101            +80
BJP           80             -79
BSP            3             --
Others      12             -1 (7 IND, 3 RLP, 1 BTP, 2 CPM)


Telengana(119/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         82            +19
INC+       25             -12
BJP           6              +1
Others       6              -8 (4 AIMIM, 1 BSP, 1 CPM)


Chhattisgarh(89/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          53            +15
BJP          26             -23
BSP+         9              +8 (6 JCC, 2 BSP, 1 CPI)
Others       1              -- (1 GGP)


Mizoram(40/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         25           +21
INC          10           -24
BJP            1             +1
Others       4             +3 (2 ZPM, 2 IND)

[jaichind]

Counting continues

MP looks like takes MP and Rajasthan narrowly. More likely than not the INC lead will grow from here.

MP(226/230)       
               Seats       Diff 2013                 
INC          116           +58
BJP          100             -61
BSP             3             -1
Others         7             +4 (3 IND, 2 SP, 1 BASD, 1 AAP)


Rajasthan(199/199)
               Seats       Diff 2013     
INC+        99            +78
BJP           81             -81
BSP            3             --
Others      16             +3 


Telengana(119/119)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
TRS         87            +24
INC+       19             -18
BJP           5              --
Others       8              -6 (5 AIMIM, 1 BSP, 1 IND)


Chhattisgarh(90/90)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
INC          52            +13
BJP          27             -22
BSP+       10             +9 (7 JCC, 1 BSP, 1 CPI)
Others       1              -- (1 GGP)


Mizoram(40/40)
              Seats       Diff 2013     
MNF         25           +22
INC           7             -27
BJP            1             +1
Others       5             +4 (2 ZPM, 2 IND)

[jaichind]

INC wins Chhattisgarh and barely ahead in MP and Rajasthan.  TRS sweeps Telangana and MNF sweeps Mizoram.  At this stage ECI data is better

Chhattisgarh (89/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               64                 42.8%
BJP               17                 32.8%
JCC-BSP-CPI   8                 11.4% (5 JCC, 3 BSP)

I suspect the final counting will lean BJP so INC's scale of victory will not be as big, still a INC blowout.


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             115                 41.4%
BJP             106                 41.4%
BSP                2                  4.6%
SP-GGP          3                   2.7%
IND                4

Still very close.  BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.


Mizoram(40/40)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (most of the IND winners are ZPM)

INC completely swept out.


Rajasthan(198/200)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP           101              39.7%   (100 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  72              38.7%
BSP                                   3                4.1%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.8%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 12             (various INC and BJP rebels)

Much closer than expected.  INC seems to have been hit by RLP and various rebels as well as a last minute Modi push.   Still BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government.


Telangana(119/119)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  47.0% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.6% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                     7.0%
AIMIM                                7                     2.7% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                      0.8%
BSP                                   0                      1.9%

Huge win by TRS and it was not based on a division of anti-TRS votes as TRS getting close to majority of votes on its own.  TRS will now try to play a bigger national role.

[jaichind]

Chhattisgarh (89/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               64                 42.9%
BJP               18                 32.8%
JCC-BSP-CPI   7                 11.3% (4 JCC, 3 BSP)

I suspect the final counting will lean BJP so INC's scale of victory will not be as big, still a INC blowout.


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             115                 41.4%
BJP             106                 41.3%
BSP                2                  4.6%
SP-GGP          3                   2.7% (2 SP, 1 GGP)
IND                4

Still very close.  BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.


Mizoram(40/40)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (most of the IND winners are ZPM)

INC completely swept out.


Rajasthan(199/200)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP           102              39.8%   (101 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  72              38.7%
BSP                                   6                4.1%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.3%
BTP                                   2                0.8%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 12             (various INC and BJP rebels)

Much closer than expected.  INC seems to have been hit by RLP and various rebels as well as a last minute Modi push.   Still BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government.


Telangana(119/119)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.6% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                     7.1%
AIMIM                                7                     2.8% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                      0.8%
BSP                                   0                      1.9%
IND                                   1

Huge win by TRS and it was not based on a division of anti-TRS votes as TRS getting close to majority of votes on its own.  TRS will now try to play a bigger national role.

[jaichind]

INC majority for Rajasthan and MP still very much in suspect

Chhattisgarh (90/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               67                 42.9%
BJP               17                 32.9%
JCC-BSP-CPI   6                 11.2% (4 JCC, 3 BSP)
GGP               0                   2.0%


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             112                 41.3%
BJP             109                 41.2%
BSP                2                  4.7%
SP-GGP          2                   2.9% (1 SP, 1 GGP)
IND                5

BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.


Mizoram(40/40) (counting done)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (7 ZPM, 1 NCP backed ind.)

 
Rajasthan(199/199)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP             99              39.7%   (98 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  72              38.8%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 12             (various INC and BJP rebels)

BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government along with roping in various rebels.


Telangana(119/119)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   87                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.7% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                     7.0%
AIMIM                                7                     2.7% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                      0.8%
BSP                                   1                      2.1%
IND                                   1

[jaichind]

This Rajasthan assembly election result looks a lot like 2008

Rajasthan(199/199)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP             99              39.7%   (98 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  72              38.8%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 12             (various INC and BJP rebels)

Rajasthan 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               96               36.82%

INC rebel                        7                 4.03%

BJP+        199              79                35.08% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                       6                  3.02%

BJS           54                 0                 0.45% (BJP splinter party)

JD(U)          4                1                  0.45%

BSP         199                6                  7.60%

CPM          34                3                  1.62%

LSP           20                1                  0.88%

SP             64                1                 0.76%

[jaichind]

INC majority for Rajasthan and MP still very much in suspect

Chhattisgarh (90/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               68                 43.2%
BJP               16                 32.8%
JCC-BSP-CPI   6                 11.4% (4 JCC, 3 BSP)
GGP               0                   1.9%


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             112                 41.1%
BJP             111                 41.1%
BSP                2                  4.8%
SP-GGP          1                   2.9% (1 SP)
IND                4                   

BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.  Also good news for INC are the 4 IND winners are all INC rebels and most likely will just come back to the fold.


Mizoram(40/40) (counting done)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (7 ZPM, 1 NCP backed ind.)

 
Rajasthan(199/199)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP            100              39.7%   (99 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  72              38.7%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 13                (various INC and BJP rebels)

BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government along with roping in various rebels.


Telangana(119/119)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.7% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                     7.0%
AIMIM                                7                     2.8% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                      0.8%
BSP                                   0                      2.1%
IND                                   1

[jaichind]

INC majority for MP still very much in suspect. INC-RLD most likely will have 1 seat majority in Rajasthan.  Of course a lot of Rajasthan independent winners are INC rebels and INC could get them to rejoin the fold.

Chhattisgarh (90/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               68                 43.2%
BJP               16                 32.9%
JCC-BSP-CPI   6                 11.6% (4 JCC, 3 BSP)
GGP               0                   1.8%


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             113                 41.0%
BJP             110                 41.1%
BSP                2                  4.9%
SP-GGP          1                   3.0% (1 SP)
AAP                0                  0.7%
IND                4                            (all of them are INC rebels)

BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.  Also good news for INC are the 4 IND winners are all INC rebels and most likely will just come back to the fold.


Mizoram(40/40) (counting done)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (7 ZPM, 1 NCP backed ind.)

 
Rajasthan(199/199)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP            100              39.8%   (99 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  73              38.8%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 12                (various INC and BJP rebels)

BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government along with roping in various rebels most of which are INC rebels anyway.


Telangana(119/119)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.8% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                    7.0%
AIMIM                                7                    2.7% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                     0.8% (AIFB winner is TRS rebel)
BSP                                   0                     2.1%
IND                                   1                              (INC rebel)

[jaichind]

Chhattisgarh and MP both almost done.  INC closing in on simple majority in MP but it will be close.

Chhattisgarh (90/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               68                 43.1%
BJP               15                 33.0%
JCC-BSP-CPI   7                 11.7% (5 JCC, 3 BSP)
GGP               0                   1.7%


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             114                 41.0%
BJP             109                 41.0%
BSP                2                  4.9%
SP-GGP          1                   3.1% (1 SP)
AAP                0                  0.7%
IND                4                            (all of them are INC rebels)

BSP SP and GGP will in the end back INC so INC should form the government.  Also good news for INC are the 4 IND winners are all INC rebels and most likely will just come back to the fold.


Mizoram(40/40) (counting done)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (7 ZPM, 1 NCP backed ind.)

 
Rajasthan(199/199) (counting done)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP            100              39.8% (99 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  73              38.8%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 13                (various INC and BJP rebels)

BSP RLP CPM BTP all will most likely back INC if necessary to form government along with roping in various rebels most of which are INC rebels anyway.


Telangana(119/119) (counting done)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.8% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                    7.0%
AIMIM                                7                    2.7% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                     0.8% (AIFB winner is TRS rebel)
BSP                                   0                    2.1%
BLP-CPM                            0                    1.1%
IND                                   1                              (INC rebel)

[jaichind]

This is the first MP assembly election when 2 parties crossed 100 seats.  This is also the first assembly election in Chhattisgarh since 1985 where only 1 party crossed 20 seats as opposed to both INC and BJP.

[jaichind]

All done.  Results are (note the vote share have NOTA in them so should all be a bit higher)

Chhattisgarh (90/90)
                 Win/Leads      Vote share
INC               68                 43.0%
BJP               15                 33.0%
JCC-BSP-CPI   7                 11.8% (5 JCC, 3 BSP)
GGP               0                   1.7%
AAP               0                   0.9%


MP(230/230)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
INC             114                 40.9%
BJP             109                 41.0%
BSP                2                  4.9%
SP-GGP          1                   3.1% (1 SP)
AAP                0                  0.7%
IND                4                            (all of 4 them are INC rebels)

BSP SP back INC along with all 4 INC rebels that were elected as independents so INC will form the government.    Internal INC battle between Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath to see who becomes INC CM.  Most likely Kamal Nath will win since an more experienced political hand is needed with such a narrow majority to manage the SP BSP and independent MLA supporters. 

Mizoram(40/40) (counting done)
                Win/Leads      Vote share
MNF             26                 37.6%
INC               5                  30.2%
BJP               1                    8.0%
IND               8                               (All 8 ZPM)

 
Rajasthan(199/199) (counting done)
                               Win/Leads      Vote share
INC-LJD-RLD-NCP            100              39.8% (99 INC, 1 RLD)
BJP                                  73              38.8%
BSP                                   6                4.0%
RLP                                   3                2.4%  (BJP splinter but pro-INC)
CPM                                  2                1.2%
BTP                                   2                0.7%  (JD(U) splinter but pro-INC)
IND                                 13                (11 INC rebels, 1 ex-NPP, 1 BJP rebel)

BSP will back INC along with at least 4 independents so INC will form government.   Just like MP now there is an internal battle to see who will become INC CM, Ashok Gehlot or Sachin Pilot.  Most likely it will be Ashok Gehlot  since just like MP INC will run a government with a thin majority and will need old political hands to handle this.


Telangana(119/119) (counting done)
                                    Win/Leads      Vote share
TRS                                   88                  46.9% (tactical alliance with AIMIM)
INC-TDP-CPI-TJS                21                  32.8% (19 INC, 2 TDP)
BJP                                    1                    7.0%
AIMIM                                7                    2.7% (tactical alliance with TRS)
AIFB                                  1                     0.8% (AIFB winner is TRS rebel)
BSP                                   0                    2.1%
BLP-CPM                            0                    1.1% (Left-Dalit front)
SFB                                   0                    0.8% (Leftist party)
IND                                   1                              (INC rebel)

It seems TDP is running at least 3%-4% behind INC in the seats it was running in even though in theory TDP are running in places where there are more voters from AP.  It seems the TDP brand is shot in Telangana and that in retrospect INC could have done better if it ran alone (or INC-CPI-TJS) even though there is no way it could have beaten TRS on its own.   Going forward INC has no choice but to go with alliance with TDP for now since for INC to win any seats in AP it will need to ally with TDP since AP has mostly become a bipolar state with TDP vs YSRCP.

[jaichind]

As expected, INC names Kamal Nath CM of MP.

[jaichind]

Elect result impact on key states/regions:

Northeast: The INC winter continue as the last INC government is ousted in a region that used to be dominated by the INC.  Given this region dependency on federal subsidies the INC revival could only come if INC can come back to power at the center.  Only place where INC might have a chance in 2019 is Assam.  Of course if BJP-AGP-BPF alliance holds and AIUDF continues to be a force, polarization between BJP and AIUDF would  INC very little chance at winning more than a small number of seats.

Bihar: Big boost to RJD-INC especially with RLSP already quitting NDA and likely to join UPA or merge with INC ally LJD.  INC's position relative with RJD has gone up and most likely will be allocated a good number of seats.  BJP's position vis-a-vis JD(U) dives.  JD(U) used to be the party with nowhere to go but now BJP is the party that needs JD(U) to avoid a big defeat in Bihar.  JD(U) and LJP will now be able to get more seat allocations from BJP.

Jharkhand:  Most likely will boost the chances of JVM will make a call to go with JMM-INC grand alliance to take on BJP.  AJSU will now be a stronger position to get greater number of seat allocations from BJP.

WB:  BJP still en route to becoming the main alternative to AITC.  More likely Left Front will have a tactical alliance with INC.

Orissa: BJP still en route to become the main alternative to BJD.  BJD most likely more hostile to BJP going forward.  Despite the fact that it is clear that BJP will displace the INC as the main opposition to BJD, BJD choose to have positive relations  with BJP at the national level on the premise that there is no alternative to BJP at the center.  Now that assumption is under threat.

AP: While INC-TDP bombed in Telangana, INC will have no choice to ally with TDP to take on YSRCP although with TDP weakened the INC will now be able to bargain for more seats.   YSRCP now a lot less likely to go for alliance with BJP and most likely will back BJP post-election.

Telangana: TRS victory in part was from its alliance with AIMIM which means TRS is less likely to ally with BJP post election especially when BJP's victory in 2019 now seems less certain.

UP: With SP and BSP supporting INC government in MP and  Rajasthan, there now seems to be a greater chance of a Grand alliance of SP-BSP-INC-RLD versus just SP-BSP-RLD.  I still think the best way to beat BJP in UP is for a SP-BSP-RLD tactical alliance with INC where SP-BSP-RLD will back INC candidate in 5-6 seats and then INC runs upper caste candidates in another 20-30 seats where INC has influence with upper caste voters to ensure that they do not vote BJP and INC backs SP-BSP-RLD in the rest.

Maharashtra: SHS now had a much stronger bargaining position vis-a-vis BJP and will could pull the plug on the state government just to make sure the LS and assembly election are held at the same time to force BJP to hold talks with SHS for seat sharing for both at the same time.  SHS will most likely demand at least 50% or the seats or it will go it alone and throw the election to INC-NCP.

TN: DMK-INC position rises as other regional parties might jump on-board like MDMK (almost a done deal) and perhaps PMK.  AIADMK almost certain not to ally with BJP pre-election which actually weakens AIADMK anti-BJP splinter AMMK as now AMMK will have less ability to distinguish itself from AIADMK.    Actor superstar Rajinikanth's RMM also now less likely to ally with BJP.

Karnataka: INC's position relative to JD(S) has gone up making it easier for INC to form an alliance with JD(S) to take on BJP.

MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh:  If INC allies with SP-BSP in UP it is possible if not likely SP and BSP will join INC in these states as allies.

Pubjab: SAD's position also rises vis-a-vis BJP in seats talks.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan results map

[jaichind]

Telangana results map

[jaichind]

MP election map, all 4 independents are INC rebels

[jaichind]

Chhattisgarh election map

[jaichind]

Mizoram election map.  Others are all ZPM

[FredLindq]

Maybe I am biased but in my opinion it seem like jaichind is/has underestimated BJP. I am a great fan off your posts but it seems that you are somewhat underestimating BJP?! :-)

[jaichind]

Maybe I am biased but in my opinion it seem like jaichind is/has underestimated BJP. I am a great fan off your posts but it seems that you are somewhat underestimating BJP?! :-)

You are most likely right.  I was able to do a Postmortem of my exit poll projections so I might as do it now and talk about what went right and what went wrong. 

Just to repeat my exit poll to projection algorithm for Indian assembly elections.

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

Now, there are 2 components of my projection.  First I try to estimate momentum based on exit poll vs pre-election polls.  Then I estimate the underestimation of polls for the opposition party by looking at historical elasticity of the state.   


MP

So my exit poll adjusted projection for MP is
INC  129
BJP    90
OTH   11

Exit poll average was
BJP  110   
INC  110   
OTH   10

Real result
INC   114
BJP    109
OTH     7

My momentum calculation was correct in the sense that INC did end up over-performing the exit poll average. My attempt to make up for underestimation of opposition party in exit polls overshot mostly, I believe, because the BJP GOTV with RSS support was very strong and kept this race closer than fundamentals and the relative high elastic nature of the state.


Chhattisgarh 

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Chhattisgarh is
INC    52
BJP    34
OTH     4

Exit poll average was
INC    43 
BJP    41     
OTH    6

Real result
INC     68
BJP     15
OTH      7

I got the momentum for INC correct as I called a breakout victory for INC even thought exit poll average had it neck-to-neck but clearly underestimated the scale of the INC victory based on the inelastic history of the state.   I think I know why this took place. It has to do with the Ajit Jogi JCC split from INC.  It was assumed that JCC-BSP will cut into INC vote more than BJP.  In a sense that is true.  In the region where Ajit Jogi has influence JCC-BSP cut into INC vote and JCC won a few seats and helped BJP gain seats from INC in that region.  BUT Ajit Jogi's image as a tribal leader it seems kept OBC voters that were frustrated with BJP from voting INC.  With Ajit Jogi clearly out of INC and running with his own party, anti-Jogi OBC voter flocked to INC and away from BJP and created a landslide sweep for the rest of the state leading to a large INC victory overall.


Rajasthan

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Rajasthan is
INC   121
BJP     70
OTH     8

Exit poll average was
INC   112
BJP     77     
OTH    10

Real result
INC+  100
BJP      73
OTH     26

My model actually detected a momentum for BJP and tried to shift the result in a pro-BJP direction relative to the exit poll average.  But the part of my model that take elasticity into account drove a large bloc of seats to the INC.  In the end my projection for seats for BJP did not seem far off (70 vs 73).  But I (as well as most exit polls)  underestimated the scale of INC rebellion which clearly cut into the scale of INC victory and INC seats.


Telangana

So my exit poll adjusted projection for Telangana is
TRS                      72
INC-TDP-TJS-CPI   33
BJP                       5
OTH                      9

Exit poll average was
TRS    65
INC+  40
BJP      4     
OTH     9

Real result
TRS    88
INC+  21
BJP      1   
OTH     9

I correctly calculated that the momentum was going in the TRS direction as my projection was more positive for TRS than the average of the exit polls.  Lack of data (there was only 1 pre-election pollster that also did an exit poll) made me pull back a bit on that.  Also there unlike most other elections it seems the exit poll underestimated the ruling party which is rare.

Overall my model go the momentum correct in all 4 races but using historical elastic numbers for the states in question led to incorrect adjustments on top of as it failed to take into account some local circumstances (BJP GOTV in MP,   OBC defection to INC in Chhattisgarh, and INC rebellion in Rajasthan)

[jaichind]

I did a prelim vote share chart for the 4 bigger states elections that just took place.

Rajasthan 2018 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+       199             100               40.42% (RLD NCP LJD were part of INC+)

INC rebel                      11                 4.86%

BJP          199               73               39.32%

BJP rebel                       1                  1.38%

ex-NPP        1                1                  0.18%

RLP+       131                5                 3.49% (RLP and BVP are BJP splinters, BTP is a JD(U) splinter)

BSP         189                6                 4.03%

CPM+       33                 2                 1.43% (SP was part of CPM+)

BJP at 39.32% is really a bigger swing from 2013 than it would appear.  In 2013 NPP and NUZP both of which are pro-BJP or de facto BJP splinters won 4.25% and 1.01% repressively.  Both have de facto merged into BJP for this election.  RLP+ despite being made up partly from BJP splinters are mostly pro-INC.  What took down INC from its expected tally was the surge of INC rebels as well as RLP+ splitting the anti-BJP vote.  Modi also campaigned hard at the end of the campaign and it seems made a difference in saving the BJP from a landslide.


MP 2018 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230            114              41.48%

INC rebel                        4               1.95%

BJP           230             109             41.60%

BJP rebel                        0               1.50%

BSP          227                2               5.08%

GGP+       125                1               3.12% (SP was part of GGP+)

AAP          208                0              0.67%

INC+ actually lost the popular vote to BJP despite winning more seats.  INC rebels hit INC a bit more than BJP but does give INC 4 INC rebel MLAs that can come back into the fold.  SP+ ate into the INC vote and the BJP GOTV campaign saved the BJP from a bigger defeat.


Chhattisgarh 2018 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            90              68              43.91%

INC rebel                       0                0.95%

BJP            90              15              33.64%

BJP rebel                       0                1.10%

JCC+        90                7               11.64% (BSP was part of JCC+)

GGP+       55                0                1.93% (SP was part of GGP+)

AAP          85                0                0.88%

JCC+ split the INC vote in areas of Ajit Jogi strength but allowed the INC to gabble up anti-JCC OBC voters to give the INC a landslide victory.  The swing against the BJP is larger than it appears since CSM who captured 1.78% merged into BJP after the 2013 elections.



2018 Telangana  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        119               21             33.09% (TDP CPI TJS was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        1               0.39%

TRS         119               88              47.38%

AIMIM        8                  7               2.74% (tactical support of TRS)

BJP          118                 1              7.08%

BSP         107                 0               2.09%

BLP+       105                 0               1.14% (CPM was part of BLP+)

AIFB         19                 1               0.78% (Leftist party)

SMFB        29                 0               0.84% (Leftist party)

INC's alliance with TDP seems to have driven all the anti-TDP vote to TRS which also hurt BJP.  TRS played the election well by forming a tactical alliance with AIMIM which also allowed TRS to scoop up Muslim votes even as it took in anti-TDP BJP voter as well. INC actually did not do that badly where it ran but where its allies ran they clearly under-performed.

[jaichind]

In Rajasthan, INC+ vote share is the highest of any INC+ assembly performance since 1998.
In MP, INC+ vote share is the highest of any INC+ assembly performance since 1985.
In Chhattisgarh, INC vote share is the highest of any INC assembly performance since 1985.
In Chhattisgarh, BJP vote share is the lowest of any BJP+ assembly performance since 1985.

[jaichind]

As expected INC picks Ashok Gehlot to be Rajasthan CM and Sachin Pilot to be his deputy. 

[jaichind]

Assam panchayat  or local elections in Assam count just finished.  It is seen as a semi-final before the LS showdown next year.  BJP ally AGP ran separately and the result is a narrow victory for BJP over INC.



Panchayat elections usually go in favor of the ruling party so it is not surprise that BJP won.  But it won by a much smaller margin than INC did in 2013.  AGP did not do as well as it hoped but I view the results as somewhat of a success for AGP as it proved that it can run and win in some places without BJP cannibalizing all its votes which was the state AGP was put in after 2014.  AIUDF fell a lot which means Muslim votes are consolidating behind INC. 

All things equal these results show that
a) AGP could end up running separately from BJP, especially when the BJP won most of the winnable seats in 2014 already and will find it difficult to allocate seats to AGP that it will demand without angering its on incumbent MPs
b) INC will put a a fight and win a few seats in the LS elections.  The way for a BJP sweep is if there is a Hindu consolidation behind BJP and a Muslim split between INC and AIUDF.  Looks like neither will be the case so 2019 LS elections in Assam will be close, especially if AGP runs separately.