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jaichind
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« on: January 03, 2018, 01:01:52 pm »
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Republic of China "9 in 1" 2018 elections.

The 9 layers being elected are

Special municipality Mayors
Special municipality Assembly
Special municipality Urban Zone heads
Special municipality Zone assembly
Aborigine Zone heads
County Magistrates
County Assembly
County Township/Village heads
County Township/Village assembly
 
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:13:29 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2018, 01:05:04 pm »
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The 2014 ROC "9 in 1" 2018 elections were a disaster for the KMT at the Mayor/County magistrate level although the KMT collapse was more muted at the City/County assembly and Zone/village heads level.

The DPP Tsai administration is very unpopular and in theory it should be a chance for the KMT to storm back to power at the Mayor/County magistrate level.  Unfortunately the DPP at the Mayor/County magistrate seems to be fairly popular and mostly have insulated themselves from the Tsai DPP regime's unpopularity.  The KMT should be able to make some gains but not a a lot and should be able to recover some ground in  City/County assembly and Zone/village heads level where it used to be supreme (and still have the upper hand today.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2018, 04:46:50 pm »
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2014 Special municipality Mayors and County Magistrates results



Taipei City was pro-Green independent, Jinmen County and Hualian Count were pro-Blue independent
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2018, 04:52:17 pm »
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Special municipality Assembly and County Assembly

KMT   386 seats
DPP    291 seats
TSU       9  seats (pro-Green pro-DPP radical pro-independence KMT splinter)
PFP        9  seats  (pro-unification KMT splinter, much neutral these days between KMT and DPP)
NP         2  seats (radical pro-unification KMT splinter)
GP         2  seats (Green Party, pro-DPP)
NPB       2 seats (pro-KMT all things equal)
TP         1 seat  (GP splinter)
Ind.   203 seats  (roughly 2/3 are pro-Blue, 1/3 are pro-Green)

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2018, 09:04:29 pm »
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2014 election results and likely 2018 outcome for the 6 Special municipality Mayors  

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
pro-DPP ind.   57.16%
KMT               40.82%
KMT rebels        1.6%

pro-DPP ind. Ko(柯文哲) mostly has broken away from DPP and if anything taken a pro-CCP position which is ironic given Ko's radical pro-Taiwan Independence background. DPP is trapped between running a candidate and coming in third and throwing the race to the KMT to no running and looking like a fool.  KMT might run Wayne Chiang(蔣萬安), great grandson of the famous Chiang Kai-Shek who can turn out the KMT base but might also turn out the DPP base.   Another possible KMT candidate is Cheng (鄭麗文) who is famously known as "Trump girl."  She was a rising DPP star but had a falling out with DPP Prez Chen and then joined the KMT and served as MP as well as Spokesperson of the PM office and turned political commentator after 2014.   She famously predicted in late 2015 that Trump will win the GOP nomination and then go on to beat Clinton in the general election.  She never wavered 2015 and 2016 in that projection.  Most likely Chiang will be nominated since he is seen as most likely to win.  The X-factor is will DPP run a candidate or not.  So if DPP does not run the race is lean Ko.  If the DPP runs the race is lean KMT.


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT     50.06%
DPP     48.78%

KMT incumbent Eric Chu (朱立倫) who was also the KMT candidate of the losing 2016 Prez campaign will be term limited out.  The KMT will most likely run Hou (侯友宜) who is quite popular.  Unless the DPP runs a political superstar, like current PM and ex-Tainan mayor Lai, the KMT seem to be able to sweep this swing City with ease.  Most likely solid KMT.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP     51.00%
KMT    47.97%

The DPP incumbent Cheng (鄭文燦) who won an unexpected race in this KMT stronghold in 2014 is very popular and seems to be insulated from the poor ratings of the DPP Tsai regime.   The KMT might run the old KMT mayor John Wu (吳志揚) that Cheng defeated for a re-match.  This race leans DPP.  The fundementals favor KMT but Cheng is a popular incumbent.  If Tsai's national ratings take a further hit then Cheng might be vulnerable.  Lean DPP.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
DPP     57.06%
KMT     42.94%  

DPP incumbent Lin (林佳龍) is fairly popular in this swing city and should have the upper hand.  The KMT has a few Taichung MPs that are looking to run but most likely they will not unseat Lin but more about setting themselves up for 2022.   Lean to Solid DPP.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP      72.90%
KMT     27.10%

The DPP mayor Lai was made PM in late 2017 and was term-limited out anyway.  The main battle is the DPP primary as it is unlikely the KMT can beat the DPP in DPP stronghold Tainan even in a bad DPP year.  The KMT will for sure close the losing margin by a lot since this is an open seat but not win.  If Tsai win reelection and has support meltdown then perhaps the KMT has a chance in 2022 but not 2018.  Solid DPP.


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP     68.09%
KMT     30.89%

The DPP incumbent is term-limited out so this is an open seat.  Like Tainan City the main battle is the DPP primary as the KMT does not have a real shot of winning.  Perhaps in 2022 if DPP is facing double incumbency at the national level in 2022 but not 2018.  Solid DPP.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:28:11 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2018, 10:00:42 pm »
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One major reason for the quick drop in Tsai/DPP support is various flip flops on populist measures that Tsai promised in 2016 campaign.  The labor law reforms flip flops are especially hurtful and most likely will drive a wedge between DPP and NPP which is taking the radical populist line against DPP.

The DPP flip-flop is structural.  Political conflict revolve around identity.  As a result both the KMT and DPP are big tent parties on social and economic issues.  KMT leans right on social issues but the most socially conservative elements on ROC are in the DPP which also has a progressive wing.  Big capital are for KMT since they benefit from economic integration with PRC while regional small capital which fears economic competition with PRC backs DPP.  DPP in theory has a strong student and labor wing but the regional small capital is the donor class of the DPP.  Tsai ran in 2016 on a pro-labor set of labor laws.  Once in power it had to bow to the DPP donor class of small regional capital and is coming out with a much more pro-capital set of labor laws.  NPP which is trying to capture the radical progressive and labor activist win of the DPP is leading the charge against the Tsai and DPP.

When politics becomes about identity the policies tend to shift right.  There is no viable Left on ROC.  Both KMT and DPP are in many ways Right parties despite both (especially DPP) paying lip services to some Left principles (mostly when they are in opposition).  NPP, by breaking with DPP and trying to turn itself into a alternative (and anti-DPP) Left-Progressive party,  is now a major x-factor if it runs a full slate of candidate in the 2018 local elections and reject electoral cooperation with DPP and could do real damage to the DPP.   I doubt NPP will go anyway on the long run but could damage the DPP along the way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2018, 02:17:32 pm »
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I was just watched the Tainan City (臺南市) DPP Primary debates.  Since the winner of the DPP primary is likely to win the general election the debate was vicious as expected with all 6 candidates going all out to attack each other and especially the front runner DPP MP Huang (黃偉哲).  

What struck me was that the debate pretty much represents the total victory of Chinese Mandarin.   Almost the entire debate was in Chinese Mandarin with very few cases where the candidates used the Hoklo dialect.  For a DPP primary debate in the most pro-DPP city to be held in Chinese Mandarin would be unheard off back in the 1990s.

Under the KMT authoritarian regime of 1950s-1980s, in order to promote Greater Chinese nationalism and suppress  Taiwan regionalism the KMT regime promoted Chinese Mandarin and discouraged the use of the Hoklo (or Minnan which is a Fujian and Taiwan Province dialect) or Hakka dialects in public space.  The rise of proto-DPP in the 1970s used the assertion of the use of Hoklo to help foster and create a Taiwan based regional identity.  Proto-DPP and DPP rallies in the 1970s to 2000s were mostly in Hoklo.  This did solidify Hoklos support for DPP even a the same time it drove the Mainlander Hakka and Aborigine votes toward KMT.  

Once the DPP first came into power in 2000 once of its main goals is try promote the teaching and use of the Hoklo dialect in elementary and middle school.    It mostly went nowhere.  It was clear by the 2000s that there was no money in knowing Hoklo and there was plenty of money in knowing Chinese Mandarin which is used on the PRC and of course English.  Most students went through the motions of learning Hoklo but in a reverse logic  of the 1950s-1980s, once the ruling regime did not see to suppresses Hoklo but instead seek to promote it, Hoklo went into decline is usage across the board.  

Tsai, who is Hakka, and barely knows any Hakka nor Hoklo is all Chinese Mandarin as far as speech is concerned.   The Tsai 2012 campaign was mostly in Chinese Mandarin and partly Hoklo and the Tsai 2016 campaign is pretty much all in Chinese Mandarin.   So over time the unifying factor behind the Taiwan Independence movement  became less about cultural factors like dialect (Hoklo vs Chinese Mandarin) but more about political system and economics.  Watching the  Tainan City (臺南市) DPP Primary debates tells me that this process is mostly complete.  


Hoklo, on the long run will become a dialect for elderly rural Hoklo and the Hoklo I hear the youth from Taiwan Province use is so corrupted by Chinese Mandarin I do not consider it  the real Hoklo dialect.  While I embrace this victory of Greater Chinese nationalism I do hope that Hoklo dialect, which is one of the most ancient of Chinese dialects somehow can be preserved.  I endlessly point out to my relatives that would listen to me that when we watch various Chinese historical mini-series from, say the Jin Dynasty or Han Dynasty, when they speak Chinese Mandarin it is historically inaccurate.  The speech they spoke back then was the closest to what Hoklo dialect is today.  All those shows should really use Hoklo dialect to preserve historical accuracy.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2018, 03:35:01 pm »
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While we are talking about primaries it might be useful to talk about ROC "primaries." 

The reality is that in the ROC political scene there are no primaries like anything they have in the USA.  The KMT is a Leninist party in structure since Sun took USSR advisers on to help him revamp the KMT in the early 1920s.  The DPP merely copied the KMT organization structure when it was formed in 1986.  So in paper for both the KMT and DPP the leadership decides on the candidates.  There was some attempts back in the 1990s for KMT DPP and other parties to try to use USA style primaries but all of them ended in disaster with fake party members, bogus voting and mass cheating. 

These days "primaries" are just party sponsored polls which the party leadership take the average and advises on who to nominate.  In most cases both the KMT and DPP will just renominate the incumbent if term-limits are not an issue.  If it is an open seat the the KMT and DPP will sponsor polls.  There are 3 types of polls that could take place.

Type 1 - Respondents are asked which party they support then asked to see if they support candidate A B or C.  The poll result only considers the response of the those that support the party. This is like a "closed primary."

Type 2 - Respondents are asked which candidate they support (A B or C) regardless of party support.  This is like an "open primary."

Type 3 - Respondents are asked if it was A vs opponent who do you back, B vs opponent who do you back, and C vs opponent who do you back.  This poll tends to test for how winnable a candidate would be which is really meant to block out candidates that are too radical but could potentially win a closed primary.  I guess the GOP wish they had something like this for the 2010 DE or 2012 MO Senate primaries. 

The KMT tends to use Type 1 and Type 2 more while the DPP tend to use Type 3 more but it always depends on the race.  And since the party decides no matter what the result of the polls are not binding although it is very rare if ever the party goes against what the polls come back with.

Understand that under type 3 we have have all sorts of bizarre results.  Since the voting population knows that such a poll will be held during the "primary period", supporters of the opposite party might "spike" the results by claiming to support the most unwinnable of the the opposing party versus their own party candidate.  Or more likely they could just claim to support the candidate of the opposing party they happen to like the most versus their own party's candidate.  An for partisans of a primary candidate their supporter might claim to the pollster they will support the opposite party candidate over a rival primary candidate.  In all cases this is no how they will really will vote in the general election.

The 2012 DPP Prez "primary" was a famous case where Type 3 was used.  It was Tsai vs her rival Su vs Hsu (who leads the tiny pro-unification (or at least anti-independence) faction of the DPP).  The average polling result was Tsai 42.50% vs Ma 35.04%, Su 41.15% vs Ma 33.79%, Ma 51.45% Hsu 12.21%.  So Tsai won by a tiny margin and went on to be beaten by Ma in the general election 51.60% vs 45.63% with KMT rebel party PFP Sung getting 2.77%.  It is clear that many KMT supporters "supported" Tsai or Su in this poll to show they support for one or the other.  What was also controversial was that there was an active Tsai campaign to tell their supporters to say, if they are asked by a pollster, that they backed Tsai over Ma but backed Ma over Su when reality they was not the case.  The Su camp was very angry about his but accepted the result.  As a result Su only have half-hearted support to Tsai which must have contributed to Tsai under-performing expectation in Pingdong County where both Tsai and Su are from but Su has strong links to the local DPP machine.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2018, 08:00:58 am »
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2014 election results and likely 2018 outcome for county magistrates

Taiwan Province

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP             53.15%
KMT             27.47%
KMT rebels   17.33%    
Minor Left      0.73%

A KMT incumbent that was charged for corruption running as a KMT rebel was part of a perfect storm for the DPP to win this very pro-KMT city.  The KMT in Keelong City continue to be divided after the election.  In 2018 the DPP incumbent Lin (林右昌) seems fairly popular and unless the KMT can unify quickly most likely the DPP incumbent will win re-election.  Lean to Solid DPP.


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
DPP            63.95%
KMT           36.05%

The DPP incumbent is term limited and was tapped for Secretary of Agriculture of the DPP regime at the center last year.  His replacement has not been able to unify the DPP and it is not clear who the DPP candidate would be except for the fact that the DPP will go into the election in this pro-DPP county in bad shape.  KMT will most likely go with rising superstar Lin(林姿妙) and it is expected that she will pull of a win and perhaps by a large margin.  Lean KMT.


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT               46.94%
pro-DPP ind    44.82%
DPP rebel         5.93%

Hsinchu County politics has been dominated by battles between two KMT kingpins Chiu(邱鏡淳) and Cheng(鄭永金) since the mid 1990s. In 2014 Cheng went over to the DPP and was narrowly defeated by KMT's Cheng.  In 2018 both are mostly moving into the background.  Problem for DPP is that the Cheng machine would vote KMT unless Cheng is personally running.  In 2018 KMT splinter MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩) who ran on KMT splinter PFP Soong 2016 ticket as vice president could end up running.  If she does she could potentially beat the likely KMT candidate and  Chiu ally Lin(林為洲) who is currently the KMT MP (and DPP MP back in the early 2000s).  Most likely DPP will not have a shot and could end up in third place.  Solid to landslide KMT if MKT does not run. Lean KMT if MKT does run.


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP             38.36%
KMT             37.85%
DPP rebel     20.28%  (appealed mainly to pro-KMT voters though)
KMT rebel      2.56%

The DPP victory in 2014 was a shock in this fairly pro-KMT city.  It seems that the DPP rebel who was DPP mayor back in the 1990s actually captured a good part of the KMT vote and threw the election to the DPP.  The DPP incumbent Lin(林智堅) seems fairly popular in this city where a good section of pro-KMT independents could vote DPP based on the candidate.  Of course if the KMT can run in 2018 as a unified party there is a chance that the KMT could win.  Lean DPP.


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT            46.59%
DPP             28.37%
KMT rebel    19.06%  (did also try to appeal to DPP voters)

KMT incumbent Hsu(徐耀昌) will be running for re-election in this very pro-KMT county.  Easy win for KMT.  Solid to landslide KMT.


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
DPP            53.71%
KMT           39.58%
DPP rebel     5.23%

DPP incumbent Wei(魏明谷) will be running for election in this slightly lean DPP county.  KMT will run fairly popular MP Wang(王惠美).  Wei's popularity is mediocre but given the power of incumbency in theory the DPP should have the upper hand but the last two times the DPP incumbent in  Changhua County tried to run for re-election (1993 and 2005) both were unexpectedly defeated.  History may repeat itself.  Tossup.


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT            50.96%
DPP             49.04%

In 2014 it was near death experience for the KMT but managed to pull out a win in this lean pro-KMT county.  KMT incumbent Lin(林明溱) is fairly popular in this home county of current KMT Chairman Wu.  Solid KMT.


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP           56.98%
KMT           43.02%

This county is fairly pro-DPP but at the local level the powerful KMT Chang faction is much stronger than the national KMT.  DPP incumbent Li(李進勇) is running for re-election seems fairly popular but the 2014 KMT candidate Chang(張麗善) whose father is the leader of the Chang faction and former county magistrate during the 2000s has powerful roots and could pull and upset.  Lean DPP.


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP             63.09%
KMT            34.09%

DPP incumbent Chang(張花冠) is term limited but her predecessor DPP's Chen (陳明文) and her are fighting a proxy battle on whose protege will become the DPP candidate.  Both Chang and Chen were in the KMT in the 1990s but both defected to DPP bring the KMT Lin faction with them turning this pro-KMT county into a solid pro-DPP county.  If the DPP can unify then it should win fairly easily.  If not then the KMT has a shot.  Solid DPP if no DPP split lean DPP if DPP split.


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
DPP                51.41%
KMT               45.50%
Minor Left         1.89%

DPP incumbent Twu(塗醒哲) is not in good shape and has had a pretty bad term so far in this slightly lean Green city.  The KMT has several strong candidates and it is likely that Twu will lose re-election.  Lean KMT.


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP               62.93%
KMT              37.07%

DPP incumbent Pan(潘孟安) seems fairly popular in this pro-DPP county (as well as DPP Prez Tsai's home county.)  Should be easy DPP win.  Solid DPP.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT             54.41%
DPP              45.59%

KMT incumbent is term limited.  This county is very pro-KMT but at the local level the DPP are far more competitive than the national DPP.  KMT will most likely nominate Rao(饒慶鈴) daughter of a powerful KMT politician in Taidong.  DPP will nominate MP Liu(劉櫂豪) who has power roots in Taidoing.   Still the KMT should win this one as the KMT which seemed to have been divided before is rallying around Rao.    Solid KMT.


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT rebel       56.53%
KMT               27.62%
KMT rebel         3.45% (wife of KMT incumbent rebel running to make sure if her husband is taken off the ballot all his supporters can vote for her)

In 2014 the DPP did not bother running in his very pro-KMT county.  KMT rebel incumbent Fu(傅崐萁) is term limited.   And he has most made peace with the Hualian KMT.  His wife Hsu(徐榛蔚) will run for the KMT.  Most likely DPP will run a token candidate but the KMT will win.  KMT landslide.


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
DPP               55.34%
KMT              44.66%

The DPP incumbent Chen(陳光復) has mediocre ratings in this somewhat pro-KMT county.   Battles over a casino in this island county has hurt Chen's ratings.  The power of incumbency should still see the DPP through but if the KMT could present a unified front it could pull off an upset.  Lean DPP.



Fuijan Province

Both Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) have massive KMT leans so DPP will most likely not run candidates.  Elections here are always KMT vs KMT or KMT vs KMT rebel.  The result will be a pro-KMT winner no matter what.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:39:23 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2018, 08:12:56 am »
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DPP ex-Prez Chen told a bunch of DPP Kaoshiung City (高雄市) legislators that 2018 will be a pretty bad year for the DPP. 

He predicted that the DPP will lose  Jiayi City(嘉義市) (I have it has lean KMT), Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (I have it as lean KMT),  Penghu County(澎湖縣)(I have it has lean DPP) and Changhua County(彰化縣)(I have it as tossup.)  He also predicted that if Tsai does not turn things around soon DPP will also most likely lose Taichung City(臺中市) (I have it as lean to solid DPP), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (I have it as lean DPP), and Hsinchu City(新竹市)(I have it as lean DPP).  He also said that DPP will still win kaoshiung City (高雄市) but with a much smaller margin (this is obvious since 2014 was a popular DPP incumbant running for re-election in a DPP wave year and 2018 is an open seat in a bad to possibly really bad DPP year.)   He also indicated that in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) city council the DPP will take a bunch of losses and it is even money that the KMT and allies will recapture majority in the city council from DPP and allies.

I guess Chen is much more negative on DPP changes in Taichung City(臺中市) then I am.  On the flip side he views Taoyuan City (桃園市) as fairly safe for DPP where as I see a chance for KMT.  I guess I focus more on PVI lean and he focuses more on the personal popularity of the DPP incumbent.  I also guess he views the DPP civil war in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) as a tempest in a teapot and will blow over and no risk of the KMT making a comeback taking advantage of a possible DPP split.  The rest he and I seem to agree where the DPP will take losses and where they are vulnerable for losses.   

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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2018, 08:55:09 am »
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Pro-DPP (but no necessary pro-Tsai) New Taiwan national policy think tank came out with a poll which sets the basis of a possible DPP primary challenge to Tsai in 2020 in case the 2018 elections goes badly for DPP.   

It has (changes are vs July 2017 results from the same poll)

Tsai approval/disapproval 30.7(-3.9)/51.1(+2.4) - mostly inline with more pro-KMT pollster with perhaps a slight pro-Tsai lean of 2%-4%

Will Tsai win re-election in 2020 Yes/No  32.4/43.9

2020 DPP "primary" Tsai 32.4 Lai 42.3
2020 DPP "primay" DPP voters only  Tsai 46.6 Lai 40.7

2020 Prez heats

Tsai(DPP)  45.4(-0.5)
Wu(KMT)  29.6(+3.7)

Tsai(DPP)  38.2(-3.0)
Chu(KMT)  43.9(+6.7)

Lai(DPP)   57.7(-1.6)
Wu(KMT)  22.1(+1.3)

Lai(DPP)   47.9(-6.0)
Chu(KMT) 35.0(+4.0)

Tsai(DPP)  31.6(-0.1)
Wu(KMT)  17.8(-1.2)
Ko(Ind)     35.3(+2.9)

Tsai(DPP)  29.0(-1.2)
Chu(KMT)  29.8(+1.9)
Ko(Ind)     30.0(+2.4)

Lai(DPP)   44.6(+1.1)
Wu(KMT)  16.1(-0.6)
Ko(Ind)     26.6(+1.1)

Lai(DPP)   40.7(+0.9)
Chu(KMT) 27.8+3.2)
Ko(Ind)     22.0(-0.9)

Historically pro-DPP pollster have been wildly off in overestimating DPP support and underestimating KMT support.  Chu and Lai does well in these polls exactly because they are both unlikely (for now) to be the KMT and DPP candidates (like the Bernie Sanders effect). 

In many ways because KMT's Wu is so unpopular there are thoughts in certain DPP factions that if Tsai does poorly in 2018 and beyond then there should just be a primary challenge from Lai.  If the KMT has recovered from 2016 then a primary challenge to Tsai in 2020 is meaningless since a DPP civil war  would just add to the landslide defeat of the DPP in 2020 regardless of who the DPP nominates.  But if the KMT is struggling but is only relevant because Tsai is doing badly then getting rid of Tsai, even at the cost of a DPP civil war, could potentially turn a narrow 2020 defeat into a narrow victory. 
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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