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Author Topic: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24  (Read 5628 times)
jaichind
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« on: January 03, 2018, 01:01:52 pm »

Republic of China "9 in 1" 2018 elections.

The 9 layers being elected are

Special municipality Mayors
Special municipality Assembly
Special municipality Urban Zone heads
Special municipality Zone assembly
Aborigine Zone heads
County Magistrates
County Assembly
County Township/Village heads
County Township/Village assembly
 
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:13:29 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2018, 01:05:04 pm »

The 2014 ROC "9 in 1" 2018 elections were a disaster for the KMT at the Mayor/County magistrate level although the KMT collapse was more muted at the City/County assembly and Zone/village heads level.

The DPP Tsai administration is very unpopular and in theory it should be a chance for the KMT to storm back to power at the Mayor/County magistrate level.  Unfortunately the DPP at the Mayor/County magistrate seems to be fairly popular and mostly have insulated themselves from the Tsai DPP regime's unpopularity.  The KMT should be able to make some gains but not a a lot and should be able to recover some ground in  City/County assembly and Zone/village heads level where it used to be supreme (and still have the upper hand today.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2018, 04:46:50 pm »

2014 Special municipality Mayors and County Magistrates results



Taipei City was pro-Green independent, Jinmen County and Hualian Count were pro-Blue independent
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2018, 04:52:17 pm »



Special municipality Assembly and County Assembly

KMT   386 seats
DPP    291 seats
TSU       9  seats (pro-Green pro-DPP radical pro-independence KMT splinter)
PFP        9  seats  (pro-unification KMT splinter, much neutral these days between KMT and DPP)
NP         2  seats (radical pro-unification KMT splinter)
GP         2  seats (Green Party, pro-DPP)
NPB       2 seats (pro-KMT all things equal)
TP         1 seat  (GP splinter)
Ind.   203 seats  (roughly 2/3 are pro-Blue, 1/3 are pro-Green)

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2018, 09:04:29 pm »

2014 election results and likely 2018 outcome for the 6 Special municipality Mayors  

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
pro-DPP ind.   57.16%
KMT               40.82%
KMT rebels        1.6%

pro-DPP ind. Ko(柯文哲) mostly has broken away from DPP and if anything taken a pro-CCP position which is ironic given Ko's radical pro-Taiwan Independence background. DPP is trapped between running a candidate and coming in third and throwing the race to the KMT to no running and looking like a fool.  KMT might run Wayne Chiang(蔣萬安), great grandson of the famous Chiang Kai-Shek who can turn out the KMT base but might also turn out the DPP base.   Another possible KMT candidate is Cheng (鄭麗文) who is famously known as "Trump girl."  She was a rising DPP star but had a falling out with DPP Prez Chen and then joined the KMT and served as MP as well as Spokesperson of the PM office and turned political commentator after 2014.   She famously predicted in late 2015 that Trump will win the GOP nomination and then go on to beat Clinton in the general election.  She never wavered 2015 and 2016 in that projection.  Most likely Chiang will be nominated since he is seen as most likely to win.  The X-factor is will DPP run a candidate or not.  So if DPP does not run the race is lean Ko.  If the DPP runs the race is lean KMT.


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT     50.06%
DPP     48.78%

KMT incumbent Eric Chu (朱立倫) who was also the KMT candidate of the losing 2016 Prez campaign will be term limited out.  The KMT will most likely run Hou (侯友宜) who is quite popular.  Unless the DPP runs a political superstar, like current PM and ex-Tainan mayor Lai, the KMT seem to be able to sweep this swing City with ease.  Most likely solid KMT.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP     51.00%
KMT    47.97%

The DPP incumbent Cheng (鄭文燦) who won an unexpected race in this KMT stronghold in 2014 is very popular and seems to be insulated from the poor ratings of the DPP Tsai regime.   The KMT might run the old KMT mayor John Wu (吳志揚) that Cheng defeated for a re-match.  This race leans DPP.  The fundementals favor KMT but Cheng is a popular incumbent.  If Tsai's national ratings take a further hit then Cheng might be vulnerable.  Lean DPP.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
DPP     57.06%
KMT     42.94%  

DPP incumbent Lin (林佳龍) is fairly popular in this swing city and should have the upper hand.  The KMT has a few Taichung MPs that are looking to run but most likely they will not unseat Lin but more about setting themselves up for 2022.   Lean to Solid DPP.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP      72.90%
KMT     27.10%

The DPP mayor Lai was made PM in late 2017 and was term-limited out anyway.  The main battle is the DPP primary as it is unlikely the KMT can beat the DPP in DPP stronghold Tainan even in a bad DPP year.  The KMT will for sure close the losing margin by a lot since this is an open seat but not win.  If Tsai win reelection and has support meltdown then perhaps the KMT has a chance in 2022 but not 2018.  Solid DPP.


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP     68.09%
KMT     30.89%

The DPP incumbent is term-limited out so this is an open seat.  Like Tainan City the main battle is the DPP primary as the KMT does not have a real shot of winning.  Perhaps in 2022 if DPP is facing double incumbency at the national level in 2022 but not 2018.  Solid DPP.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:28:11 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2018, 10:00:42 pm »

One major reason for the quick drop in Tsai/DPP support is various flip flops on populist measures that Tsai promised in 2016 campaign.  The labor law reforms flip flops are especially hurtful and most likely will drive a wedge between DPP and NPP which is taking the radical populist line against DPP.

The DPP flip-flop is structural.  Political conflict revolve around identity.  As a result both the KMT and DPP are big tent parties on social and economic issues.  KMT leans right on social issues but the most socially conservative elements on ROC are in the DPP which also has a progressive wing.  Big capital are for KMT since they benefit from economic integration with PRC while regional small capital which fears economic competition with PRC backs DPP.  DPP in theory has a strong student and labor wing but the regional small capital is the donor class of the DPP.  Tsai ran in 2016 on a pro-labor set of labor laws.  Once in power it had to bow to the DPP donor class of small regional capital and is coming out with a much more pro-capital set of labor laws.  NPP which is trying to capture the radical progressive and labor activist win of the DPP is leading the charge against the Tsai and DPP.

When politics becomes about identity the policies tend to shift right.  There is no viable Left on ROC.  Both KMT and DPP are in many ways Right parties despite both (especially DPP) paying lip services to some Left principles (mostly when they are in opposition).  NPP, by breaking with DPP and trying to turn itself into a alternative (and anti-DPP) Left-Progressive party,  is now a major x-factor if it runs a full slate of candidate in the 2018 local elections and reject electoral cooperation with DPP and could do real damage to the DPP.   I doubt NPP will go anyway on the long run but could damage the DPP along the way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2018, 02:17:32 pm »

I was just watched the Tainan City (臺南市) DPP Primary debates.  Since the winner of the DPP primary is likely to win the general election the debate was vicious as expected with all 6 candidates going all out to attack each other and especially the front runner DPP MP Huang (黃偉哲).  

What struck me was that the debate pretty much represents the total victory of Chinese Mandarin.   Almost the entire debate was in Chinese Mandarin with very few cases where the candidates used the Hoklo dialect.  For a DPP primary debate in the most pro-DPP city to be held in Chinese Mandarin would be unheard off back in the 1990s.

Under the KMT authoritarian regime of 1950s-1980s, in order to promote Greater Chinese nationalism and suppress  Taiwan regionalism the KMT regime promoted Chinese Mandarin and discouraged the use of the Hoklo (or Minnan which is a Fujian and Taiwan Province dialect) or Hakka dialects in public space.  The rise of proto-DPP in the 1970s used the assertion of the use of Hoklo to help foster and create a Taiwan based regional identity.  Proto-DPP and DPP rallies in the 1970s to 2000s were mostly in Hoklo.  This did solidify Hoklos support for DPP even a the same time it drove the Mainlander Hakka and Aborigine votes toward KMT.  

Once the DPP first came into power in 2000 once of its main goals is try promote the teaching and use of the Hoklo dialect in elementary and middle school.    It mostly went nowhere.  It was clear by the 2000s that there was no money in knowing Hoklo and there was plenty of money in knowing Chinese Mandarin which is used on the PRC and of course English.  Most students went through the motions of learning Hoklo but in a reverse logic  of the 1950s-1980s, once the ruling regime did not see to suppresses Hoklo but instead seek to promote it, Hoklo went into decline is usage across the board.  

Tsai, who is Hakka, and barely knows any Hakka nor Hoklo is all Chinese Mandarin as far as speech is concerned.   The Tsai 2012 campaign was mostly in Chinese Mandarin and partly Hoklo and the Tsai 2016 campaign is pretty much all in Chinese Mandarin.   So over time the unifying factor behind the Taiwan Independence movement  became less about cultural factors like dialect (Hoklo vs Chinese Mandarin) but more about political system and economics.  Watching the  Tainan City (臺南市) DPP Primary debates tells me that this process is mostly complete.  


Hoklo, on the long run will become a dialect for elderly rural Hoklo and the Hoklo I hear the youth from Taiwan Province use is so corrupted by Chinese Mandarin I do not consider it  the real Hoklo dialect.  While I embrace this victory of Greater Chinese nationalism I do hope that Hoklo dialect, which is one of the most ancient of Chinese dialects somehow can be preserved.  I endlessly point out to my relatives that would listen to me that when we watch various Chinese historical mini-series from, say the Jin Dynasty or Han Dynasty, when they speak Chinese Mandarin it is historically inaccurate.  The speech they spoke back then was the closest to what Hoklo dialect is today.  All those shows should really use Hoklo dialect to preserve historical accuracy.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2018, 03:35:01 pm »

While we are talking about primaries it might be useful to talk about ROC "primaries." 

The reality is that in the ROC political scene there are no primaries like anything they have in the USA.  The KMT is a Leninist party in structure since Sun took USSR advisers on to help him revamp the KMT in the early 1920s.  The DPP merely copied the KMT organization structure when it was formed in 1986.  So in paper for both the KMT and DPP the leadership decides on the candidates.  There was some attempts back in the 1990s for KMT DPP and other parties to try to use USA style primaries but all of them ended in disaster with fake party members, bogus voting and mass cheating. 

These days "primaries" are just party sponsored polls which the party leadership take the average and advises on who to nominate.  In most cases both the KMT and DPP will just renominate the incumbent if term-limits are not an issue.  If it is an open seat the the KMT and DPP will sponsor polls.  There are 3 types of polls that could take place.

Type 1 - Respondents are asked which party they support then asked to see if they support candidate A B or C.  The poll result only considers the response of the those that support the party. This is like a "closed primary."

Type 2 - Respondents are asked which candidate they support (A B or C) regardless of party support.  This is like an "open primary."

Type 3 - Respondents are asked if it was A vs opponent who do you back, B vs opponent who do you back, and C vs opponent who do you back.  This poll tends to test for how winnable a candidate would be which is really meant to block out candidates that are too radical but could potentially win a closed primary.  I guess the GOP wish they had something like this for the 2010 DE or 2012 MO Senate primaries. 

The KMT tends to use Type 1 and Type 2 more while the DPP tend to use Type 3 more but it always depends on the race.  And since the party decides no matter what the result of the polls are not binding although it is very rare if ever the party goes against what the polls come back with.

Understand that under type 3 we have have all sorts of bizarre results.  Since the voting population knows that such a poll will be held during the "primary period", supporters of the opposite party might "spike" the results by claiming to support the most unwinnable of the the opposing party versus their own party candidate.  Or more likely they could just claim to support the candidate of the opposing party they happen to like the most versus their own party's candidate.  An for partisans of a primary candidate their supporter might claim to the pollster they will support the opposite party candidate over a rival primary candidate.  In all cases this is no how they will really will vote in the general election.

The 2012 DPP Prez "primary" was a famous case where Type 3 was used.  It was Tsai vs her rival Su vs Hsu (who leads the tiny pro-unification (or at least anti-independence) faction of the DPP).  The average polling result was Tsai 42.50% vs Ma 35.04%, Su 41.15% vs Ma 33.79%, Ma 51.45% Hsu 12.21%.  So Tsai won by a tiny margin and went on to be beaten by Ma in the general election 51.60% vs 45.63% with KMT rebel party PFP Sung getting 2.77%.  It is clear that many KMT supporters "supported" Tsai or Su in this poll to show they support for one or the other.  What was also controversial was that there was an active Tsai campaign to tell their supporters to say, if they are asked by a pollster, that they backed Tsai over Ma but backed Ma over Su when reality they was not the case.  The Su camp was very angry about his but accepted the result.  As a result Su only have half-hearted support to Tsai which must have contributed to Tsai under-performing expectation in Pingdong County where both Tsai and Su are from but Su has strong links to the local DPP machine.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2018, 08:00:58 am »

2014 election results and likely 2018 outcome for county magistrates

Taiwan Province

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP             53.15%
KMT             27.47%
KMT rebels   17.33%    
Minor Left      0.73%

A KMT incumbent that was charged for corruption running as a KMT rebel was part of a perfect storm for the DPP to win this very pro-KMT city.  The KMT in Keelong City continue to be divided after the election.  In 2018 the DPP incumbent Lin (林右昌) seems fairly popular and unless the KMT can unify quickly most likely the DPP incumbent will win re-election.  Lean to Solid DPP.


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
DPP            63.95%
KMT           36.05%

The DPP incumbent is term limited and was tapped for Secretary of Agriculture of the DPP regime at the center last year.  His replacement has not been able to unify the DPP and it is not clear who the DPP candidate would be except for the fact that the DPP will go into the election in this pro-DPP county in bad shape.  KMT will most likely go with rising superstar Lin(林姿妙) and it is expected that she will pull of a win and perhaps by a large margin.  Lean KMT.


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT               46.94%
pro-DPP ind    44.82%
DPP rebel         5.93%

Hsinchu County politics has been dominated by battles between two KMT kingpins Chiu(邱鏡淳) and Cheng(鄭永金) since the mid 1990s. In 2014 Cheng went over to the DPP and was narrowly defeated by KMT's Cheng.  In 2018 both are mostly moving into the background.  Problem for DPP is that the Cheng machine would vote KMT unless Cheng is personally running.  In 2018 KMT splinter MKT Hsu(徐欣瑩) who ran on KMT splinter PFP Soong 2016 ticket as vice president could end up running.  If she does she could potentially beat the likely KMT candidate and  Chiu ally Lin(林為洲) who is currently the KMT MP (and DPP MP back in the early 2000s).  Most likely DPP will not have a shot and could end up in third place.  Solid to landslide KMT if MKT does not run. Lean KMT if MKT does run.


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP             38.36%
KMT             37.85%
DPP rebel     20.28%  (appealed mainly to pro-KMT voters though)
KMT rebel      2.56%

The DPP victory in 2014 was a shock in this fairly pro-KMT city.  It seems that the DPP rebel who was DPP mayor back in the 1990s actually captured a good part of the KMT vote and threw the election to the DPP.  The DPP incumbent Lin(林智堅) seems fairly popular in this city where a good section of pro-KMT independents could vote DPP based on the candidate.  Of course if the KMT can run in 2018 as a unified party there is a chance that the KMT could win.  Lean DPP.


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT            46.59%
DPP             28.37%
KMT rebel    19.06%  (did also try to appeal to DPP voters)

KMT incumbent Hsu(徐耀昌) will be running for re-election in this very pro-KMT county.  Easy win for KMT.  Solid to landslide KMT.


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
DPP            53.71%
KMT           39.58%
DPP rebel     5.23%

DPP incumbent Wei(魏明谷) will be running for election in this slightly lean DPP county.  KMT will run fairly popular MP Wang(王惠美).  Wei's popularity is mediocre but given the power of incumbency in theory the DPP should have the upper hand but the last two times the DPP incumbent in  Changhua County tried to run for re-election (1993 and 2005) both were unexpectedly defeated.  History may repeat itself.  Tossup.


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT            50.96%
DPP             49.04%

In 2014 it was near death experience for the KMT but managed to pull out a win in this lean pro-KMT county.  KMT incumbent Lin(林明溱) is fairly popular in this home county of current KMT Chairman Wu.  Solid KMT.


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP           56.98%
KMT           43.02%

This county is fairly pro-DPP but at the local level the powerful KMT Chang faction is much stronger than the national KMT.  DPP incumbent Li(李進勇) is running for re-election seems fairly popular but the 2014 KMT candidate Chang(張麗善) whose father is the leader of the Chang faction and former county magistrate during the 2000s has powerful roots and could pull and upset.  Lean DPP.


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP             63.09%
KMT            34.09%

DPP incumbent Chang(張花冠) is term limited but her predecessor DPP's Chen (陳明文) and her are fighting a proxy battle on whose protege will become the DPP candidate.  Both Chang and Chen were in the KMT in the 1990s but both defected to DPP bring the KMT Lin faction with them turning this pro-KMT county into a solid pro-DPP county.  If the DPP can unify then it should win fairly easily.  If not then the KMT has a shot.  Solid DPP if no DPP split lean DPP if DPP split.


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
DPP                51.41%
KMT               45.50%
Minor Left         1.89%

DPP incumbent Twu(塗醒哲) is not in good shape and has had a pretty bad term so far in this slightly lean Green city.  The KMT has several strong candidates and it is likely that Twu will lose re-election.  Lean KMT.


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP               62.93%
KMT              37.07%

DPP incumbent Pan(潘孟安) seems fairly popular in this pro-DPP county (as well as DPP Prez Tsai's home county.)  Should be easy DPP win.  Solid DPP.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT             54.41%
DPP              45.59%

KMT incumbent is term limited.  This county is very pro-KMT but at the local level the DPP are far more competitive than the national DPP.  KMT will most likely nominate Rao(饒慶鈴) daughter of a powerful KMT politician in Taidong.  DPP will nominate MP Liu(劉櫂豪) who has power roots in Taidoing.   Still the KMT should win this one as the KMT which seemed to have been divided before is rallying around Rao.    Solid KMT.


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT rebel       56.53%
KMT               27.62%
KMT rebel         3.45% (wife of KMT incumbent rebel running to make sure if her husband is taken off the ballot all his supporters can vote for her)

In 2014 the DPP did not bother running in his very pro-KMT county.  KMT rebel incumbent Fu(傅崐萁) is term limited.   And he has most made peace with the Hualian KMT.  His wife Hsu(徐榛蔚) will run for the KMT.  Most likely DPP will run a token candidate but the KMT will win.  KMT landslide.


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
DPP               55.34%
KMT              44.66%

The DPP incumbent Chen(陳光復) has mediocre ratings in this somewhat pro-KMT county.   Battles over a casino in this island county has hurt Chen's ratings.  The power of incumbency should still see the DPP through but if the KMT could present a unified front it could pull off an upset.  Lean DPP.



Fuijan Province

Both Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) have massive KMT leans so DPP will most likely not run candidates.  Elections here are always KMT vs KMT or KMT vs KMT rebel.  The result will be a pro-KMT winner no matter what.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 08:39:23 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2018, 08:12:56 am »

DPP ex-Prez Chen told a bunch of DPP Kaoshiung City (高雄市) legislators that 2018 will be a pretty bad year for the DPP. 

He predicted that the DPP will lose  Jiayi City(嘉義市) (I have it has lean KMT), Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (I have it as lean KMT),  Penghu County(澎湖縣)(I have it has lean DPP) and Changhua County(彰化縣)(I have it as tossup.)  He also predicted that if Tsai does not turn things around soon DPP will also most likely lose Taichung City(臺中市) (I have it as lean to solid DPP), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (I have it as lean DPP), and Hsinchu City(新竹市)(I have it as lean DPP).  He also said that DPP will still win kaoshiung City (高雄市) but with a much smaller margin (this is obvious since 2014 was a popular DPP incumbant running for re-election in a DPP wave year and 2018 is an open seat in a bad to possibly really bad DPP year.)   He also indicated that in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) city council the DPP will take a bunch of losses and it is even money that the KMT and allies will recapture majority in the city council from DPP and allies.

I guess Chen is much more negative on DPP changes in Taichung City(臺中市) then I am.  On the flip side he views Taoyuan City (桃園市) as fairly safe for DPP where as I see a chance for KMT.  I guess I focus more on PVI lean and he focuses more on the personal popularity of the DPP incumbent.  I also guess he views the DPP civil war in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) as a tempest in a teapot and will blow over and no risk of the KMT making a comeback taking advantage of a possible DPP split.  The rest he and I seem to agree where the DPP will take losses and where they are vulnerable for losses.   

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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2018, 08:55:09 am »

Pro-DPP (but no necessary pro-Tsai) New Taiwan national policy think tank came out with a poll which sets the basis of a possible DPP primary challenge to Tsai in 2020 in case the 2018 elections goes badly for DPP.   

It has (changes are vs July 2017 results from the same poll)

Tsai approval/disapproval 30.7(-3.9)/51.1(+2.4) - mostly inline with more pro-KMT pollster with perhaps a slight pro-Tsai lean of 2%-4%

Will Tsai win re-election in 2020 Yes/No  32.4/43.9

2020 DPP "primary" Tsai 32.4 Lai 42.3
2020 DPP "primay" DPP voters only  Tsai 46.6 Lai 40.7

2020 Prez heats

Tsai(DPP)  45.4(-0.5)
Wu(KMT)  29.6(+3.7)

Tsai(DPP)  38.2(-3.0)
Chu(KMT)  43.9(+6.7)

Lai(DPP)   57.7(-1.6)
Wu(KMT)  22.1(+1.3)

Lai(DPP)   47.9(-6.0)
Chu(KMT) 35.0(+4.0)

Tsai(DPP)  31.6(-0.1)
Wu(KMT)  17.8(-1.2)
Ko(Ind)     35.3(+2.9)

Tsai(DPP)  29.0(-1.2)
Chu(KMT)  29.8(+1.9)
Ko(Ind)     30.0(+2.4)

Lai(DPP)   44.6(+1.1)
Wu(KMT)  16.1(-0.6)
Ko(Ind)     26.6(+1.1)

Lai(DPP)   40.7(+0.9)
Chu(KMT) 27.8+3.2)
Ko(Ind)     22.0(-0.9)

Historically pro-DPP pollster have been wildly off in overestimating DPP support and underestimating KMT support.  Chu and Lai does well in these polls exactly because they are both unlikely (for now) to be the KMT and DPP candidates (like the Bernie Sanders effect). 

In many ways because KMT's Wu is so unpopular there are thoughts in certain DPP factions that if Tsai does poorly in 2018 and beyond then there should just be a primary challenge from Lai.  If the KMT has recovered from 2016 then a primary challenge to Tsai in 2020 is meaningless since a DPP civil war  would just add to the landslide defeat of the DPP in 2020 regardless of who the DPP nominates.  But if the KMT is struggling but is only relevant because Tsai is doing badly then getting rid of Tsai, even at the cost of a DPP civil war, could potentially turn a narrow 2020 defeat into a narrow victory. 
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2018, 10:37:35 pm »

For municipality or county assembly, the Pan Blues tend to over-perform.   Most districts are multi-member districts which makes it easy for local factional leaders to compete.  Historically local faction leaders tend to align with the KMT, although that has changed in some counties and cities (like Yilan County(宜蘭縣) and Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)) where DPP local rule has shifted some of the local factions over to be pro-DPP.  But overall the Pan-Blue camp tends to over-perform in these very personalized and localized elections.    

I tend to break up candidates into 6 types of candidataes
Deep Blue - NP or other radical unifications
Blue - KMT
Light Blue - KMT rebels, other KMT splinters (PFP), pro-KMT local factions parties (NPB), pro-KMT independents
Light Green - DPP rebels, DPP allies (GP, TP), pro-DPP independents
Green - DPP
Deep Green - TSU, proto-NPP, other radical pro-independence minor parties

2014 election results for municipality assembly of  6 Special municipality

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
  
                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                9                   2                 6.60%
Blue                       34                 28               38.57%
Light Blue               12                  4                  8.01%
Total pan-Blue         55                34                53.18%

Light Green              9                  1                  4.29%
Green                    29                 27                39.27%
Deep Green             6                   1                  2.94%
Total pan-Green     44                 29                46.50%

The pro-DPP Independent Ko surge lead to a record result for pan-DPP camp for assembly elections although the pan-Blue still retain a narrow majority.  With the Ko wave gone the KMT is looking to recapture absolute majority by itself without allies in 2018.



New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                6                   0                 1.75%
Blue                       41                 26               38.95%
Light Blue               20                  6                10.35%
Total pan-Blue         67                32                51.05%

Light Green              8                  1                  3.13%
Green                    36                 32                43.32%
Deep Green             4                   1                  2.16%
Total pan-Green     48                 34                 48.61%

Over-nomination by the KMT lead to the pan-Greens fight the pan-Blues to a draw despite the KMT incumbent mayor Chu (who went on to run on the KMT 2016 Prez ticket in a landslide defeat) winning a surprising narrow victory.  This time around a solid KMT win should give the KMT the coattails to regain majority status.



Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                4                   0                 0.75%
Blue                       39                 29               37.52%
Light Blue               26                  8                19.36%
Total pan-Blue         79                37                57.63%

Light Green            19                  2                  9.12%
Green                    29                 20                31.46%
Deep Green             3                   1                  1.19%
Total pan-Green     51                 23                 41.76%

This result seems in line with what a bad KMT election night might look like in this fairly pro-KMT City and in 2018 one would expect the pan-Blue bloc to regain ground.  On the other hand the DPP surprisingly won in an upset in the mayor race and the DPP incumbent made good progress in luring some pro-KMT independents into the pro-DPP camp so the local factions leaders will not be as pro-KMT was it was in 2014.  If so the pan-Blue camp might be lucky to replicate the 2014 results and maintain control as opposed to expanding it.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       37                 28               38.23%
Light Blue               26                  8                16.36%
Total pan-Blue         63                36                54.59%

Light Green             8                   0                  3.96%
Green                    33                 27                39.91%
Deep Green             5                   0                  1.29%
Total pan-Green     46                 27                 45.16%

The DPP won the mayor's race in a landslide in this swing city and these results seems inline with that given the KMT domination with the local factions.  The DPP incumbent is fairly popular but could be vulnerable in a bad DPP year and did not make that much progress in winning over local factional leaders.  If so one would expect the pan-Blues to make gains in 2018.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       27                16                27.93%
Light Blue               14                  7                15.28%
Total pan-Blue         41                23                43.21%

Light Green              9                  5                  8.40%
Green                    34                 28                46.03%
Deep Green             3                   1                  2.36%
Total pan-Green     46                 34                 56.79%

The DPP has been in charge of this pro-DPP city for several election cycles that a lot of the local factional leaders have gone over to the DPP although the pan-Blue camp still punches above its weight in assembly elections.  If the KMT can run a competitive candidate for mayor in this open race I expect the Pan-Blue to regain some ground but with Pan-Greens still with a majority.


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   0                 0.17%
Blue                       35                 24               34.48%
Light Blue               14                  4                 8.09%
Total pan-Blue         50                28                42.74%

Light Green            11                  4                  4.26%
Green                    39                 33                47.35%
Deep Green           11                   1                  5.44%
Total pan-Green     61                 38                 57.05%

Just like Tainan City (臺南市) the DPP has been in charge for a while and some of the local faction leaders have gone over to the DPP while the Pan-Blue still punch above its weight in assembly elections.  And with the mayor race an open seat, if the KMT can run a credible candidate the pan-Blues could fight the Pan-Greens into a near tie in the assembly in 2018.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 11:31:14 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2018, 12:28:19 pm »

For municipality or county assemblies outside the 6 Special municipalities in 2014  (part I)

Taiwan Province

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       23                 14               44.76%
Light Blue               15                  7                21.58%
Total pan-Blue         38                21                66.35%

Light Green            12                   0                  6.71%
Green                    12                 10                25.33%
Deep Green             1                   0                  1.24%
Total pan-Green     25                 10                 33.28%

DPP won the mayor's race in 2014 over a divided KMT hampered by corruption scandals.  Of course in the assembly election the Blue advantage continues.  The DPP mayor running for re-election will be able to push up Pan-Green support at the assembly level and most likely could counteract the decline of Pan-Green fortunes overall relative to 2014.


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       22                 11               35.99%
Light Blue               10                  5                10.88%
Total pan-Blue         32                16                47.86%

Light Green              8                   6                13.97%
Green                    19                 12                37.60%
Deep Green             1                   0                  0.20%
Total pan-Green     28                 18                 51.78%

Pan-Greens have ruled Yilan at the county magistrate level since 1981 with only a 4 year exception.  As a result a good part (but not all) of the local factions have gone over to the DPP.  The net result is the Blue and Greens are near parity at the assembly level.  The DPP rule last 4 years in Yilan has been fairly negative and with the KMT candidate being a rising superstar will most likely win in a way that pushes the Blues to majority status in the assembly.


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   1                 2.18%
Blue                       31                 23               57.05%
Light Blue               14                  6                19.59%
Total pan-Blue         46                30                78.82%

Light Green              9                  4                 12.55%
Green                      6                  2                  8.17%
Deep Green             1                   0                  0.31%
Total pan-Green     16                   6                21.02%

The DPP brand is fairly poor here so many DPP candidates run as pro-DPP independents.   The political status of Hsinchu County at the assembly is similar what most rural ROC counties looked like before the 1980s, total domination by Blue forces.  With the upcoming county magistrate election potentially turning into a KMT vs MKT battle with the DPP candidate marginalized this will continue.


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   0                 0.21%
Blue                       19                 15               35.92%
Light Blue               15                  3                17.24%
Total pan-Blue         35                18                53.37%

Light Green            14                  6                 22.01%
Green                      7                  7                 16.77%
Deep Green             4                   2                  7.46%
Total pan-Green      25                15                 46.24%

In Hsinchu City due to a Pan-Blue civil war almost two decades ago, a good part of the local factions actually gone over to the DPP even though the city itself still leans KMT.  As a result the city assembly tends to be evenly matched between KMT and anti-KMT forces.  The DPP mayor who won in a narrow 3 way race will be running for re-election and may be able to add a boast to the anti-KMT forces to counteract the overall decline of DPP since 2014.


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       22                 19               41.08%
Light Blue               21                 11               31.86%
Total pan-Blue         43                30                72.94%

Light Green             7                   4                 12.34%
Green                     8                   4                 13.96%
Total pan-Green     15                   8                 26.30%

Very similar to Hsinchu County with total Pan-Blue domination of the assembly.  No reason to believe that will change.


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       33                 24               39.42%
Light Blue               21                 11               21.46%
Total pan-Blue         54                35                60.88%

Light Green              5                   2                 4.62%
Green                    23                 17                33.97%
Deep Green             2                   0                  0.22%
Total pan-Green     30                 19                 38.81%

Changhua County has become a swing county starting in the 1990s an as a result a small part of the local factions has gone over to the DPP to counteract the total Blue domination of the assembly.  The DPP county magistrate incumbent will be running for re-election in a county not friendly to DPP incumbants and with a mediocre record.  If the KMT ends up winning back the county magistrate seat the coattails might work to counteract some expected minor gains the Green camp have made since 2014 to getting some local factions to go with the Greens.


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   0                 0.01%
Blue                       25                 17               42.44%
Light Blue               22                  9                29.65%
Total pan-Blue         48                26                72.10%

Light Green              8                  3                   7.60%
Green                      8                  8                 19.29%
Deep Green             1                   0                  0.64%
Total pan-Green      17                11                 27.53%

Even though the DPP has captured the county magistrate a couple of times in the past  Nanto County assembly has been solid Blue the whole time and I see no reason for that to change.


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       10                  7                15.55%
Light Blue               24                 19               38.51%
Total pan-Blue         34                26                54.06%

Light Green            11                  3                12.02%
Green                    20                 13                31.16%
Deep Green             3                   1                  2.42%
Total pan-Green     34                 17                 45.59%

Yunlin County has swung hard toward Greens since the late 1990s and the KMT brand has declined a lot since.  Many KMT candidates run as pro-KMT independents.  DPP has been in change at the county magistrate level since 2005 and there is not sign that will change.   Over that period the DPP has been chipping away at the local factions to come over the DPP and that trend most likely will continue even though the dominate Chang faction seems to sticking with KMT.   There might be a brewing civil war in the DPP over the open seat in the county magistrate and if the KMT comes up with a good candidate this trend could potentially be delayed but all things equal the Blues will lose a bit of ground in the assembly.


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« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2018, 12:29:36 pm »

For municipality or county assemblies outside the 6 Special municipalities in 2014  (part II)

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       11                  9                22.70%
Light Blue               11                  7                16.39%
Total pan-Blue         22                16                39.09%

Light Green              4                  3                  6.36%
Green                    21                 18                53.87%
Deep Green             1                   0                  0.35%
Total pan-Green     26                 21                 60.58%

Jaiyi County has been competitive between DPP and KMT since the 1980s but with the defection of the Lin faction to DPP it has turned into a DPP stronghold.  Since the way the DPP has captured power was via local factions the Greens also gained the advantage in the assembly and should continue to gain ground.  Main problem is the Lin faction seems to be entering into a civil war which is turning into a DPP civil war in a battle for the county magistrate position.  While this will not lead the DPP to lose the county magistrate position to the KMT the Blues could blunt this election the long term drift of the assembly toward the Greens.


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       10                  6                26.74%
Light Blue                 8                  8                27.01%
Total pan-Blue         18                14                53.75%

Light Green             7                   4                 17.54%
Green                     7                   5                 24.06%
Deep Green             2                   1                  4.65%
Total pan-Green     16                 10                 46.25%

The Pan-Greens have controlled Jiayi City at the mayor level since 1981 with the KMT making a comeback in 2005.  As a result lots of the local factions have drifted toward the DPP over the decades to a point where the two camps are near parity.  The DPP incumbent mayor is fairly unpopular and it seems the KMT will recapture the mayor position in 2018.  If so this could help the Blues to expand their narrow lead in the assembly.


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       28                19                30.39%
Light Blue               23                11                22.03%
Total pan-Blue         51                30                52.70%

Light Green             7                   6                   8.11%
Green                    27                 18                37.73%
Deep Green             1                   1                  1.32%
Total pan-Green     35                 25                 47.16%

Pingdong County became competitive in the 1980s and has drifted toward DPP control by the early 1990s. As a result the Greens has been chipping away at the Blue domination.  With a popular DPP country magistrate running for re-election it seems that trend will continue.  Greens might even flip control of the assembly over to the Greens this time.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       31                 22               66.90%
Light Blue                7                   4                 7.13%
Total pan-Blue         38                26                74.03%

Light Green              8                  3                18.34%
Green                      2                  1                  6.18%
Deep Green              1                  0                  0.72%
Total pan-Green      11                  4                25.55%

Like Hsinchu County the Blues dominate the assembly.  The DPP brand is weak at the local level so as a result many DPP candidates runs as pro-DPP independents.  No reason to believe this will change.


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       32                 20               60.26%
Light Blue               13                  5                17.18%
Total pan-Blue         45                25                77.44%

Light Green             4                   2                   5.63%
Green                     7                   6                 16.70%
Total pan-Green     11                   8                 22.33%

Like the other rural counties there is complete Blue domination with a weak DPP brand.  The KMT rebel county magistrate is term limited and his wife will run on the KMT ticket so the DPP will most likely run a candidate.  This does given the Greens a chance make some gains since the last decade the DPP has been marginalized at the local level by the KMT civil war which has since ended after 2014.


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                        9                   8                37.74%
Light Blue               12                  8                33.99%
Total pan-Blue         20                16                71.73%

Light Green             9                   1                 20.32%
Green                     2                   2                   7.42%
Total pan-Green     11                   3                 27.74%

Penghu County has been competitive at the national and even at the country magistrate for a while now but has the Greens in a weak position in the assembly level due to the power of pro-Blue NPB in assembly elections.  The DPP county magistrate incumbent could pull in some extra votes for the Green camp in his bid for re-election but his record seems mediocre and his seat could flip.  If so that could limit or even nullify Green gains.


Fujian Province 

Both Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) assemblies are dominated by Pan-Blue politicians of different stripes or those who are non-aligned.  There are no Green presence in assembly elections.
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« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2018, 06:33:32 am »

Total 2014 city and county assembly elections are

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue               23                  3                 1.20%
Blue                     554               386               36.86%
Light Blue             350               157               15.78%
Total pan-Blue       927               546               53.84%

Light Green           178                60                 6.61%
Green                   370              291               37.08%
Deep Green            50                10                  2.16%
Total pan-Green    598               361                45.85%


While in the Mayor and County magistrate elections when one added in various rebels to the correct political color you get

Pan-Blue     43.54%
Pan-Green   55.86%

So the Pan-Blues over-perform at the assembly level with a key role that the various Light Blue local faction candidates are effective at attracting lean Green voters.  Of course this also makes them hard to control as allies and vulnerable to poaching by the Greens.  Some of such Light Blue candidates from 2014 have since defected to become pro-Green or joined the DPP mainly in DPP ruled areas.  It is not clear that these defectors could actually capture any pan-Blue votes.  Another factor is now the NPP has broken with DPP it will run candidates pretty much in all of the multi-member districts which might push up the Pan-Green vote share but could be a disaster for the DPP in terms of seats.
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2018, 06:48:52 am »

The KMT primary in Keelong City (基隆市) is turning into a fiasco and is risking its chances at taking back one of the more pro-KMT cities that it lost in 2014. 

Back in 2014 the KMT nominated Huang (黃景泰) who was the speaker of the assembly but after several corruption scandals came out related to Huang stripped him of his nomination and instead nominated Hsieh (謝立功) who has a police/military background.  Huang ran as an independent and the bad press of Huang's corruption scandals drove down the KMT image as well as splitting what is left of the KMT vote giving the DPP an easy victory.

For 2018 both Hsieh (謝立功), the new speaker of the assembly Soong (宋瑋莉), and diplomat Jie(介文汲) are fighting for the KMT nomination.   As mentioned before, on ROC party leadership have the final say on nominations and "primaries"  are really party requested polls being done to establish which one of its candidates has the most support.  In this case the KMT asked 3 pollsters to poll both KMT candidates against each other as well as against the DPP incumbent and calculated a weight average.   The initial result had Hsieh beating out Soong by 1% with Jie far behind.  Then after around 6 hours it turned out one of the 3 pollsters indicated they mis-mapped some numbers and had to re-state its poll results.  That change shifted the average of the 3 polls to a Soong victory over Hsieh by 1.5%.  Hsieh cried fraud and now the KMT leadership has decided to hold off nominating Soong but conduct an investigation of this mess.

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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2018, 09:45:27 am »

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) DPP county magistrate primary is quite interesting.  

Historically Jaiyi County has been dominated by the Huang and Lin factions, which of which were pro-KMT.  The power breakdown in the 1970s-1990s tends to be

pro-KMT Huang faction 40%
pro-KMT Lin faction      30%
anti-KMT (proto-DPP)   30%

The Lin faction has been pro-KMT on local issues but on issues at the county and national level tends to be more neutral and sometime even anti-KMT and could even have partial defections to the DPP especially if a rival Huang faction candidate is in the fray.

The 1993 Jaiyi County magistrate election is an example where the KMT could not get the Huang and Lin factions to form a common front and allowed each faction to run a candidate on its own

1993 county magistrate election
Huang faction (KMT)    36.60% (wins despite KMT split)
DPP                            32.04%  (DPP candidate is a KMT rebel)
Lin faction(KMT)          29.79%

In 1997 the KMT got the Lin faction to back the Hunag faction winner from 1993 but there were clear defections from the Lin faction vote due to hostility to the Huang faction and some Lin faction voters sympathizes with the DPP

1997 county magistrate election
Huang faction(KMT)    53.26%  (has de jure Lin faction support)
DPP                           46.74%  

In 2001 Chen Ming-wen (陳明文), leader of the Lin faction, tired of playing second fiddle to the Huang faction, lead his Lin faction into the DPP now that the DPP were in charge at the ROC central government.


He took with him Lin faction ally KMT MP Zheng(曾振農) and his wife Helen Chang (張花冠) into the DPP as well.  


Zheng soon retired from politics with his wife taking his place and then the Lin faction-DPP alliance dominated Jaiyi County politics from then on since DPP-Lin faction can capture around 60% of the vote over KMT-Huang faction 40%.  Chen and Chang then went on to serve as county magistrates for 4 terms (2001-2009 for Chen, 2009 to 2018 for Chang.)

Now with Chang leaving office this great political duo are having a falling out turning on who will take over from here a Lin faction civil war into a DPP civil war.

Chen is close to DPP Prez Tsai and has control of the Jaiyi County DPP organization.  His vision is to merge the Lin faction organization into the DPP with him in charge.  Chang who wants to to be kingpin of Jaiyi County politics is forming an alliance of various factional forces in the Lin faction with  some implicit support from the KMT and the Huang faction to from an anti-Chen alliance.

Both Chen and Chang have their separate proxy candidates in the DPP Jaiyi County magistrate primary.  Chen's candidate Ong (翁章梁) is a DPP party man while Chang's candidate Chang (張明達) is the assembly speaker and has local Lin faction background.  It seems that Ong is ahead in the polls by a small margin.  The Chang bloc's anti-Chen alliance clearly involves various Huang faction and KMT forces.  The KMT has not really come up with a candidate yet and part of the reason why must be if Ong wins the primary then Chang might blot from the DPP and run on the KMT ticket or as a KMT backed independent.  In such a race then it would be DPP-half of Lin faction vs Other half of Lin faction-KMT-Huang faction
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2018, 10:16:34 pm »

Formosa (lean Green) poll shows KMT now overtaking DPP in terms of approval rating



It took DPP until after 2012 for this to take place (over 4 years after the DPP lost the 2008 elections.)  KMT took only around 2 years to get to this point.  So the DPP drop in support is faster than the KMT drop in support post-2008.  Of course KMT won re-election in 2012 and despite these bad numbers I would still rate Tsai as the slight favorite to win re-election.
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2018, 10:39:35 am »

In Taipei City assembly 5th district we might end up with an ex-wife running against her ex-husband.  Taipei 5th district  historically has been a more lean-DPP district.  In both 2010 and 2014 KMT and DPP split the 8 seats 4-4.  One of the  4 DPP winners is one Tong (童仲彥) who has been in the assembly for 3 terms.


His wife Li (李秀環) has been his political partner as well


The in 2017 it came out that he has been beating his wife and his marriage came to a close as the DPP expelled him from the party.

The DPP for 2018 plans to nominate 4 candidates.  With Tong being out several newcomers are running in the DPP "primary" to try to get the last seat.  Li announced that she will run in the DPP primary to get nominated for her ex-husband's old seat.  Tong will also run as DPP rebel with the support of mayor Ko.  Tong running will threaten DPP's position to win 4 seats.  On the other hand if Li wins the DPP primary then the publicity of an ex-husband ex-wife running against each other might push the DPP to win 4 seats plus Tong winning as well.  On the other hand there will likely be a swing away from DPP so 2018 results might look more like 2010 than 2014.

2014
DPP         12.07%  (elected)
KMT        11.19%  (elected)
KMT        11.01%  (elected)
KMT        10.83%  (elected)
DPP        10.61%  (elected)
DPP        10.04%  (elected)  (Tong)
DPP          8.89%  (elected)
KMT         7.70%  (elected)
TP            5.12%  (pan-Green GP splinter)
KMT rebel 4.65%
NP            3.95%
TSU          2.13%
PFP           1.48%
Ind.          0.17%
Ind.          0.10% (pro-unification)
 
KMT   40.75%
DPP   41.63%

Pan-Blue    50.93%
Pan-Green  48.88%


2010
KMT         14.23%    (elected)
DPP          11.51%    (elected)
KMT         11.15%    (elected)
KMT         10.37%     (elected)
KMT           9.89%     (elected)
DPP            8.87%    (elected)
DPP            8.34%    (elected) (Tong)
DPP            7.78%    (elected)
TSU           5.72%
NP             5.18%
KMT rebel   2.83%
PFP            1.59%
GP             1.16%
KMT rebel   1.09%
Ind.           0.23%

KMT   45.65%
DPP   36.53%

Pan-Blue    56.34%
Pan-Green  43.40%

If 2018 ends up being more like 2010 than 2014 then having Tong in the race with 4 DPP candidates risks NP coming in and taking one of the pan-Green seats turning the Blue-Green 4-4 balance into a 5-3 Blue advantage.
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« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2018, 08:46:02 am »

With Tsai's ratings low with no clear way out and while the KMT has mostly closed the gap with the DPP but very little people are crediting KMT chairman Wu for it, the winner out of all this is former KMT Prez Ma a year and a half after leaving who was enemy number one for the Pan-Green bloc and abandoned by Deep Blue and Light Blue alike.  Now Ma's popularity is surging.  One way one can tell are the popularity of Ma Chinese New Year Decorations which are put up on the doors of households and are usually written words of good fortune.  

Historically the New Year Decorations written by the current ROC President are the most popular (kinds of like Gallup's poll of most admired Man is usually headed the sitting President.)   Last year Prez Ma's office gave out around 50K of such decorations.  This year given the massive demand for Ma Chinese New Year Decorations 250K has already been printed and sold out and another batch is several hundred thousand are now being frantically being printed.  The Tsai  Chinese New Year Decorations has printed 250K or so and that seems to be meeting demand.

Ma Chinese New Year Decorations - Ma holding his own decoration - the words allude to the passing of the Year of Chicken and the coming of the Year of the Dog



Tsai Chinese New Year Decorations - Prez speaker holding the decoration - words allude to good fortune for all



One way to get a sense the relative popularity of Ma and Tsai is that the Ma Chinese New Year Decorations are being re-sold on the internet for $12 (mostly due to lack of supply that the Ma Office is frantically trying to produce more) while Tsai Chinese New Year Decorations are being sold on the internet mostly at sticker price of $2.

All this means that the Deep Blue vote which went missing in 2014 and 2016 could come back if Ma were to campaign for the KMT.
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« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2018, 12:41:05 pm »

In Jiayi City(嘉義市) mayor the KMT is facing a split.  

KMT speaker of the assembly Hsiao (蕭淑麗)


Has announced that she is dropping out of the KMT primary to run as an independent.

This is mostly because former KMT mayor Huang(黃敏惠) has announced that she will run in the KMT primary.


Huang has ambitions to become the leader of the KMT in the future and running for her old seat is a way of prolong her political life so she can make a bid for the leadership of the KMT in the future.  Of course this is deja vu.  Hsiao in 2014 also bolted from the KMT to run as an independent against the KMT candidate but halfway through was convinced to withdraw by various KMT elders and ran for the city assembly instead and upon winning took over as the Speaker of the Assembly.  It is clear that Huang is more popular than Hsiao overall and that Huang would win any "primary" and as a result Hsiao decided to run as an independent.

The DPP incumbent Twu(塗醒哲) is fairly unpopular and seems set for defeat in his bid for re-election until Huang threw her hat into the race.


My view is that most likely KMT wills still capture the seat despite the split.  The record of ROC races for executive spots is that a party splits tend to harm the party in an open seat race or if an incumbent is running for election an a party rebel also runs.  If an opposition party is running against the incumbent and the opposition party splits usually that does not stop the opposition from winning if it was a seat the opposition was meant to win.   Most ROC executive role races with an incumbent often tends into a referendum election versus a choice election. Meaning if Huang was going to defeat Tsu 1-on-1 then most likely with Hsiao in the race Huang would still win as Hsiao will most likely pull in marginal KMT and DPP voters and leave Huang to win.  And if in such a 3 way race Twu ends up winning then Huang was going to lose anyway 1-on-1 vs Twu.  

Net result: This seat is still lean KMT in my view even though the KMT camp are now in a panic over the prospect of losing this seat they thought was in the bag.

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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2018, 08:03:25 am »

The KMT primary in Keelong City (基隆市) is turning into a fiasco and is risking its chances at taking back one of the more pro-KMT cities that it lost in 2014. 

Back in 2014 the KMT nominated Huang (黃景泰) who was the speaker of the assembly but after several corruption scandals came out related to Huang stripped him of his nomination and instead nominated Hsieh (謝立功) who has a police/military background.  Huang ran as an independent and the bad press of Huang's corruption scandals drove down the KMT image as well as splitting what is left of the KMT vote giving the DPP an easy victory.

For 2018 both Hsieh (謝立功), the new speaker of the assembly Soong (宋瑋莉), and diplomat Jie(介文汲) are fighting for the KMT nomination.   As mentioned before, on ROC party leadership have the final say on nominations and "primaries"  are really party requested polls being done to establish which one of its candidates has the most support.  In this case the KMT asked 3 pollsters to poll both KMT candidates against each other as well as against the DPP incumbent and calculated a weight average.   The initial result had Hsieh beating out Soong by 1% with Jie far behind.  Then after around 6 hours it turned out one of the 3 pollsters indicated they mis-mapped some numbers and had to re-state its poll results.  That change shifted the average of the 3 polls to a Soong victory over Hsieh by 1.5%.  Hsieh cried fraud and now the KMT leadership has decided to hold off nominating Soong but conduct an investigation of this mess.



KMT high command worked out a deal where Hsieh (謝立功) will run even in theory he lost the "primary."  It does seem to have the full support of  Soong (宋瑋莉).  I am sure the KMT promised Soong that she can continue as Speaker of the Assembly post 2018 elections.  Most likely KMT high command went with Hsieh due to his youth appeal that a need to appeal to independents who might be turned off my Soong's factional image.
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2018, 10:49:40 pm »

Taichung City(臺中市) mayor KMT "primary" has MP Lu(盧秀燕) winning


over MP Jiang(江啟臣)


by a margin of 50.308% vs 49.692%.

Current DPP incumbent Lin(林佳龍) is reasonably popular but the bad Tsai DPP ratings recently has dragged down his re-election numbers to a point where the race is now most likely a toss-up.


In many ways the perception of win-loss between DPP-KMT this election might end up being "which party wins the Taichung City mayor race.
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« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2018, 09:17:23 pm »

Global Views Monthly annual poll on state of politics on ROC

Support for unification (Red) (14.8%) surges to a record high since 2008 while support for independence (Green) (21.1%) collapses to a low since 2008.


A majority of 18-29 year olds (53%) now willing to work on Mainland China


Pan-Blue vs Pan-Green now near parity (27.7 vs 30.9) versus 2017 (26.0 vs 34.8 )


Pan-Blue vs Pan-Green swing very large at 30-39 year olds (30.7 vs 23.5) versus 2017 (20.7 vs 39.2)


Tsai approval/disapproval at 25.8/64.3


PM Lai apporval/disapproval now net even 42.9/43.2


Support/rejection of "92 Concensus" (There is only One China but each side gets to define who is that One China) at 47.5/33.2
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2018, 08:26:20 am »

TVBS poll on approval ratings of mayors/county magistrates for 19 counties/cities (Fujian Province Lienchiang County(連江縣) excluded since it is too small, Tainan City (臺南市) and Yilan County(宜蘭縣) excluded since the DPP incumbents were recently moved into the cabinet and replaced with a stand-in until elections later this year.)



Data includes change from Jan 2017

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)     pro-KMT ind 70(+3),   term limited,
                                                             wife will run for KMT, solid KMT
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)    KMT            69(+15), term limited
                                                             solid KMT
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)           DPP            68(+5),  will run for re-election
                                                             will face former KMT mayor, lean DPP
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)         DPP             65(+8),  will run for re-election
                                                             former KMT mayor will not run, solid DPP
kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)    DPP             61(-1),  term limited
                                                             solid DPP
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)         KMT            57(+5), will run for re-election
                                                             solid KMT
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)         DPP            55(+6), will run for re-election
                                                            lean DPP
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)       DPP            53(-3), will run for re-election
                                                            solid DPP
Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41)    pro-KMT ind 51(-7), will run for re-election
                                                            solid pro-KMT ind.
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)             pro-DPP ind 50(+18), will run for re-election
                                                            If DPP runs then lean KMT, if not tossup
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)       DPP           48(-3),   term limited
                                                            If DPP civil war then tossup, if not solid DPP
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)    KMT           45(-1),  term limited
                                                            KMT has solid candidate, lean KMT
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)      DPP           44(+5), will run for re-election
                                                            Solid DPP
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)        DPP           42(+8), will run for re-election
                                                            Tossup (winner of this race wins the election cycle)
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)      KMT           41(+1), will run for re-election
                                                            Solid KMT
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)    KMT          41(-2), term limited
                                                            3 way race (KMT vs MKT (KMT splinter) vs DPP), lean KMT
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)       DPP          39(-2),  will run for re-election
                                                             KMT ex-incumbent run but might split, still lean KMT
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) DPP          37(+4), will run for re-election
                                                             tossup
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)              DPP         35(+11), will run for re-election
                                                             KMT ex-mayor will run but will split, still lean KMT


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) will be solid DPP for sure.
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) will have a very strong KMT candidate and with DPP in disarray will will be lean KMT even though there is a KMT rebel in the fray.

So if it becomes a pro-KMT wave election, the KMT will pick up Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3), Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4), Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [very complex and uncertain, not clear if DPP will run or who the KMT candidate will be], Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).  

If they get lucky an all out DPP civil war in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) might throw the KMT in or a KMT backed DPP rebel.  

The DPP will go after New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) but it seems they have to come up with a superstar candidate (which now seem less and less likely) or hope for the strong KMT candidate to implode in a KMT civil war.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 03:08:22 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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