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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #125 on: September 17, 2018, 07:55:16 am »

The cross-tabls in the TVBS poll in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  highlights KMT Ding's strategic dilemma.  If we look at the TVBS poll cross-tabs for May July and Sept by DPP supporters, KMT supporters, NPP supporters, Independents, Minor Parties (PFP, NP, NPB TSU, GP, plus refuse to answer) we have

Overall
                                    May      July       Sept
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       31       40          37
KMT Ding (丁守中)           33        30          32
DPP Yao(姚文智)               13       11          11
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


DPP voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                   (17%)  (16%)     (18%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       32       46          39
KMT Ding (丁守中)             3         5            3
DPP Yao(姚文智)               49       41          48
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            0


KMT voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                   (28%)  (25%)     (25%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       15       21          17
KMT Ding (丁守中)            76       73         72
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 2        0            1
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


NPP voters
                                    May      July       Sept
                                     (8%)   (7%)     (8%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       61       69         79
KMT Ding (丁守中)            13        3           6
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12      12            5
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            0


Independent voters
(have KMT DPP learners plus truely independents)
                                    May      July       Sept
                                    (38%)  (40%)   (34%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       41       46         47
KMT Ding (丁守中)            21      18          24
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 5       6            2
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --            1


Minor parties (or refuse to ID) voters
(this bloc are mostly non-KMT Pan Blue voters, non-DPP Pan Green voters with a lean toward the Pan-Blues)
                                    May      July       Sept
                                    (11%)  (12%)   (15%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       12      34          27
KMT Ding (丁守中)            24      30          33
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 9       8            7
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)         --       --           3


Ko's main strength is that he pretty much captured half of DPP support plus almost all the pan-Green rebels.  Ko is also able to get a slice of the KMT vote plus a solid chunk of the non-KMT pan-Blue vote.  Of course Ko also have a good part of the non-aligned vote which we can see as his core.
 DPP's Yao is reduced to just half of the DPP base and almost non of the non-DPP pan-Green vote.  KMT's Ding has most but not all of the KMT vote and a good chunk of the non-KMT Pan-Blue vote.

So Ding's dilemma is IF Ko is going to continue his strength in the Pan-Green vote which pretty much means Yao is consigned to single digit or low double digit overall support  then Ding should go on the attack  against Ko painting Ko AS THE PAN-GREEN CANDIDATE to consolidate the entire Pan-Blue vote.  That tends to lead to something like Ding 45 Ko 40 Yao 15.  The risk of this strategy is that the pro-Ko Pan-Blue vote might be committed and will not swing back to Ding and an attack on Ko as the Pan-Green candidate will prevent the migration of the Pan-Green vote from Ko to Yao then the result will be Ding 40 Ko 45 Yao 15.  Of course Ding could gamble that Yao will recapture some of the DPP and other Pan-Green votes and as a result Ko takes a more neutral position on the Blue-Green axis. In which case Ding would mostly attack Yao as the pan-Green candidate but attack Ko mostly on policy execution issues than an ideological onslaught.  If successful the result will be Ding 40 Ko 35 Yao 25.  The main risk is that such an Ding attack pattern would be unsuccessful and a strong Yao  campaign could draw non-KMT Pan-Blue or even KMT voters to back Ko in as Ko gains a non-Green image in which case it would be Ding 35 Ko 40 Yao 25.

The basic idea is Ding would have to guess how the Pan-Green vote will flow and what sort of Blue-Green position Ko will take in the last 2 months of the campaign.  Ko's strength with non-DPP Green vote is very powerful has he could get a good part of the pan-Green vote without the baggage of being aligned with the DPP.  Ko being a political Chameleon and opportunist makes Ding's guess difficult to get right and the wrong bet could throw the election to Ko when Ding has a solid shot of winning if he plays his cards right.
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: September 17, 2018, 09:06:00 am »

Slightly pro-Green Apply Daily will also have polls for the 6 special municipalities

So far they have

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       34.9
KMT Ding (丁守中)            30.8
DPP Yao(姚文智)               10.4
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1.9

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT Ho(侯友宜)               40.2%
DPP Su(蘇貞昌)               29..4%

Both roughly matches TVBS results and if anything are closer to what the race will most likely converge to (KMT's Ding and DPP's Su most likely will gain ground in their respective races in ling with underlying fundamentals). 
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: September 17, 2018, 06:03:11 pm »

Also a couple of more polls came out on the Unification-Independence topic has record numbers of unification

Pro-Blue UDN poll had

Img


Which if you add up ASAP and leaning you have

            Unification    Independence
2010         14                 31
2011         14                 29
2012         15                 31
2013         15                 33
2014         12                 34
2015         13                 28
2016         17                 31
2017         20                 24
2018         23                 24


While the pro-Green Taiwan Public Opinion Fund had
Img


Unification       26.1
Independence  36.2

With the Unification-Independence gap the smallest in the 2000s.   The absolute level of support for Unification is the highest since 1996.  While support for Independence peaked at 51.6 in mid 2016 and have since collapsed to 36.2.
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jaichind
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« Reply #128 on: September 19, 2018, 12:29:10 pm »

Latest Slightly pro-Green Apply Daily polls has Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) neck to neck.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT Lu(盧秀燕)     30.9
DPP Lin(林佳龍)     30.3  (incumbent)

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) (open seat)
DPP Chen(陳其邁)  33.8
KMT Han(韓國瑜)   31.2
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jaichind
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« Reply #129 on: October 23, 2018, 10:40:05 am »

Pro-Blue TVBS came out with a bunch of battleground cities/counties polls with projections:

Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
               poll       projection
KMT          40           49
DPP          31           46
KMT rebel   5            5


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
               poll       projection
KMT          35           41
DPP           29          42
KMT rebel  15          15


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
               poll       projection
KMT          42         49
DPP          35          49
KMT rebel   1           1
KMT rebel   1           1


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
               poll       projection
KMT          50         56
DPP          30         44


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
               poll       projection
KMT         44          50
DPP         36          49


The Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) poll results are a shock and shows how KMT's Han(韓國瑜) non-orthodox style of campaign is breaking new ground for the KMT.  I think KMT's projections are assuming a surge in DPP turnout and adjust for TVBS's house effects.

Given that we are seeing a small anti-Green wave I think TVBS's projections are mostly to generous to DPP.   On these poll results I think KMT should win Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) especially given tactical voting by KMT voters that support the KMT rebel.

If DPP loses Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) in addition to Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4), and Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) and compounded by being blown out in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) and aipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [ it would be a complete disaster.  In such a case Tsai will most likely lose her 2020 re-election campaign.

It all comes down to Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  now.  DPP has to pull out wins in at least one of these 2 cities.
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jaichind
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« Reply #130 on: October 26, 2018, 07:37:58 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 07:53:41 pm by jaichind »

Pro-Blue TVBS poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

                                    poll       projection
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       40           44
KMT Ding (丁守中)            32           40
DPP Yao(姚文智)               12           15
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1            1

KMT Ding (丁守中) will end up with 40-45 in the end.  So it comes down to how many votes DPP Yao(姚文智)  ends up with.  If DPP Yao(姚文智)  can get above 20 then DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲) is most likely sunk.

The breakdown in support by party are the following

                                    DPP         KMT         NPP        None        Others
                                   (18%)      (28%)      (9%)       (34%)        (11%)
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       39           17           77            55            19
KMT Ding (丁守中)             5           78             5            20            32
DPP Yao(姚文智)               41            1           15              5            18
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          0            0.3          0              1             4

Others are mostly other Pan-Blue parties (PFP NP) plus a smallish Pan-Green parties (TSU SDP).  PFP will mostly back Ko (柯文哲) and NP will mostly back Ding (丁守中).

How DPP high command plays this in the end will depend on their evaluation on the following set of questions:
1) If Ko (柯文哲) were to run in the 2020 Prez race will it harm DPP or KMT more? Most likely the answer is it will hurt DPP more since Ko (柯文哲) will appeal to the youth which used to be the DPP core vote.
2) If Ko (柯文哲) more likely to run in 2020 if he wins narrowly or lose narrowly?  The general view is that Ko (柯文哲) is more likely to run in 2020 if he narrowly lose since he will blame DPP for his defeat and will be looking for revenge in 2020.
3) If Ko (柯文哲) were to run in 2020 will he be stronger if he won the 2018  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) mayoral race narrowly or loses the race narrowly?  The general view is that  Ko (柯文哲) will be stronger if he wins his race for re-election.
4) If  DPP Yao(姚文智) were to collapse to low double digits or even single digits and the DPP City Council assembly election candidates gets crushed how much will that hurt Tsai's reelection effort in 2020?  The view is a lot.  

So the DPP High command is stuck.  Their goal is clearly to avoid a Ko run and if he runs then somehow make sure he is a weak candidate.  Ideally for DPP, DPP Yao(姚文智) gets vote share in the high teens so the DPP Taipei City assembly election results avoid a collapse and Ko (柯文哲) narrowly wins which in turn decides not to run in 2020.  Of course it is hard to micromanage DPP Yao(姚文智)'s vote share that precisely.  So in the home stretch the DPP high command will have a lot of decisions to make on how much to invest in DPP Yao(姚文智) clearly failing campaign.

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jaichind
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« Reply #131 on: October 27, 2018, 10:53:40 pm »

A bit about the Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) County magistrate race. 
It will be KMT's Rao(饒慶鈴)
Img


vs DPP's Liu (劉櫂豪)
Img

 
vs KMT rebel Kuang(鄺麗貞)
Img


The KMT rebel Kuang(鄺麗貞) is actually a former KMT County magistrate and the wife of a former KMT County magistrate Wu (吳俊立)

Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) at the national level is very pro-Blue due to the high concentration of pro-KMT aborigines.  But at the local level the county could be quite competitive.  For legislative elections the Aborigines vote in a separate Aborigine slate which reduces the KMT lead over DPP. For county magistrate races the power of local clans and factions comes into play and gives DPP opportunities.

The Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) KMT is dominated by 3 families.  One of the 3 families is the  Rao(饒) clan who is led by former KMT Vice Speaker of the Legislature Rao(饒穎奇) who is the father of the current KMT candidate and current speaker of the County legislature Rao(饒慶鈴). Rao the Elder(饒穎奇) was MP for a long time before retiring 1998 but still has great influence in county politics. The second of the 3 families is the Huang(黃) clan led by the sitting County magistrate Huang(黃健庭) whose father was a county magistrate back in the 1960s and was a MP from 2001-2009 before becoming county magistrate.  The last of the 3 families is the Wu(吳) clan led by Wu(吳俊立) was elected County magistrate in 2005.  Then due to corruption charges stemming when Wu(吳俊立) was speaker of the county assembly had to resign.  His wife Kuang(鄺麗貞) was appointed by him to take over from his role in 2006.

On the DPP side Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) are their kingpins of county politics.  Both came from second tier KMT political families and went over the the DPP due the the domination of the top 3 KMT families.

The recent history of  Taidong County(臺東縣) (PVI Blue +18) elections leading up to 2018 is quite interesting.

We first had the 2001 County Magistrate election which ended up with KMT splinter PFP winning
PFP Shu(徐慶元)  44.3%
KMT Wu(吳俊立)  36.9%
DPP Lai(賴坤成)   17.3%

Shu(徐慶元) was a rival of  Wu(吳俊立) in the KMT and ran in the 1997 county magisrate election as a KMT rebel in a losing cause and went over to the PFP and took advantage of the PFP surge in 2000-2001 to win.

In the 2001 Legislative race it was
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 42.5%
DPP                       30.7%
PFP                       23.4%
TSU                        2.7%
   
In the 2004 legislative race Huang(黃健庭) won re-election
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 61.6%
DPP                       40.0%

Shu(徐慶元) knew he was going to be in trouble for his 2005 re-election and took on as his vice-magistrate DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) hoping to form a Shu(徐慶元)-DPP alliance for 2005 but then decided to back DPP's  Liu(劉櫂豪) to run in 2005 against  Wu(吳俊立),  The result of the 2005 county magistrate election was
KMT Wu(吳俊立)  59.2%
DPP Liu(劉櫂豪)   38.2%

But Wu(吳俊立) had to step down due to corruption charges so he divorced his wife Kuang(鄺麗貞) who he appointed to the role of county magistrate.  She ran in a by-election against DPP's  Liu(劉櫂豪) and won in 2006.  The DPP side was contested with both  Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) wanting to run but DPP went with Liu(劉櫂豪) and Lai(賴坤成) running as a rebel.
KMT  Kuang(鄺麗貞)  63.0%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)      24.5%
DPP rebel Lai(賴坤成) 7.1%

In the 2008 legislative race Huang(黃健庭) won re-election again
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 61.1%
DPP                       37.0%
 
In the 2009 county magistrate election due to the poor performance of Kuang(鄺麗貞) the KMT led by Rao the Elder(饒穎奇) pushed her off the ticket and nominated MP Huang(黃健庭)  instead who won against DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) who came much closer to winning due to anti-incumbency against the KMT at the center.   The DPP had convinced  Lai(賴坤成) that he will be nominated in the by-election for KMT Huang(黃健庭) seat if Huang(黃健庭) were to win which he did
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 52.6%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    47.4%

The 2010 legislative by-election saw the KMT lose for the first time. With Wu(吳俊立) angry that his wife was pushed off the ticket insisted that his wife  Kuang(鄺麗貞) be nominated as the KMT candidate in the legislative by-election.  Fearing that Wu(吳俊立) might split the KMT the KMT went along with this and due to lack of support from the Rao(饒) clan  Kuang(鄺麗貞) lost
KMT Kuang(鄺麗貞)  45.3%
DPP Lai(賴坤成)       49.5%

In the 2012 legislative election Liu(劉櫂豪)  insisted on running and the DPP convinced Lai(賴坤成) to switch over to run in Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) next door.  On the KMT side they nominated Rao(饒慶鈴) but with Wu(吳俊立) angry on what happen to his wife in 2009-2010 ran as a KMT  rebel and threw the race to Liu(劉櫂豪).
KMT Rao(饒慶鈴)         29.6%
DPP  Liu(劉櫂豪)          45.6%
KMT rebel Wu(吳俊立)  25.0%

In 2014 country magistrate election DPP MP Liu(劉櫂豪) challanged KMT Huang(黃健庭) one more time and lost despite the national anti-KMT wave.
KMT Huang(黃健庭) 54.4%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    45.6%

In the 2016 legislative election with the KMT still splintered and a clear anti-KMT wave nationally and Rao(饒慶鈴) refusing to run  Liu(劉櫂豪)  won re-election against a second tier KMT candidate.
KMT                      35.8%
DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪)    64.2%

For the 2018 county magistrate election the KMT knew that the reason why they lost the 2012 and 2016 legislative races was due to infighting by the 3 main KMT clans.  So the KMT worked with get all three clans united around Rao(饒慶鈴)'s candidacy.   Wu(吳俊立) also made his peace with the KMT and agreed to be Rao(饒慶鈴)'s campaign manager.  The KMT also agreed to support  Wu(吳俊立)'s sister to become the new speaker of the county legislative after the elections.   Then in early Sept a bombshell took place. Wu(吳俊立)'s wife and former county magistrate Kuang(鄺麗貞) registered as a candidate.  The total shock displayed by her husband Wu(吳俊立) seems to indicate he had now knowledge of her actions.  Multiple attempts by Wu(吳俊立) to try to get his wife to withdraw has failed.   

So now we will have the spectacle of the husband of a candidate being the campaign manager of a rival candidate.  There are conspiracy theories abound that this good cop - bad cop routine by Wu(吳俊立) who is still bend on getting revenge for 2009-2012. 

DPP's Liu(劉櫂豪) is a strong candidate that runs well ahead of the DPP and the KMT split now gives him a chance.  In the end most like he will come up short but will give the KMT quite a scare due to Kuang(鄺麗貞) running as a KMT rebel.
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« Reply #132 on: November 02, 2018, 06:48:46 am »

Latest UDN (pro-Blue) poll on r Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
                                   
DPP rebel Ko (柯文哲)       38 (+1)         
KMT Ding (丁守中)            35 (+6) 
DPP Yao(姚文智)                 8           
KMT rebel Li (李錫錕)          1

Confirms the TVBS poll showing KMT Ding (丁守中) gaining an closing the gap.
Img


Cross-tabs are interesting
For Men it is 40-37-8 for  Ko (柯文哲)
For Women it is 35-34-6 for  Ko (柯文哲) (Gender gap on ROC is women are more center-Right)

The age differences are huge
20-39  it is  62-19-5 for  Ko (柯文哲)
60+ it is 44-15-8 for Ding (丁守中)

Pan Blue favor Ding (丁守中) 66-26-1
Pan Greens favor Ko (柯文哲)  49-34-6

It seems given the age and partisan cross-tabs, the entire DPP youth vote has pretty much gone over to Ko (柯文哲).  It is also interesting and sad that with the older DPP base left DPP Yao(姚文智)  is down to 8%.  I would agree with DPP analysts here and say "this cannot be" and assume that election day other older DPP supporters  will come out and push DPP Yao(姚文智)'s vote share to 15% at least.  If course sometimes if our only argument is "this cannot be" the result might end up being "it is."

The danger for  Ko (柯文哲) is that he is very reliant on a large youth turnout which clearly came out in 2014 in an anti-KMT wave.  This year it seems it will be a small to medium anti-DPP wave.  I tend to think in such a scenario the DPP youth will most likely just not turn out.  If they did they would vote  Ko (柯文哲) but more likely than they will not. 
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« Reply #133 on: November 05, 2018, 05:11:05 pm »

Some recent polls from fairly quality pollsters seems to indicate the anti-DPP wave is building.  

The pro-Green Formasa News had its Late Oct Monthly poll on overall climate which had
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Tsai's approval/disapproval at 25.5 (-1.5)/67.3(+4.0)
Tsai's truest/distrust 26.7(-3.2)/58.5(+3.4)

DPP approval/disapproval 27.4(+1.0)/57.5(+5.5)
KMT approval/disapproval 41.7(+11.0)!!!!/39.2(-3.8 )

Where the KMT approval surged.  
The main narrative for a minor anti-DPP wave is that KMT support is still tepid and the anti-DPP feelings are mostly pro-Ko and made up of partly the 2014-2016 DPP coalition that is going over to Ko but still anti-KMT.  With KMT support going up this will become a lot bigger problem for DPP.

Looking at 2008-2016 KMT Prez Ma approval/disapproval and trust/distrust
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Shows that on the trust/distrust Tsai is already at around Ma May 2013 levels which is the 5th year of the Ma Presidency.  Tsai got there in 2 years.

 
Pro-Blue UDN poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)

Has it at KMT 54 DPP 26 with DPP getting destroyed in the youth vote as well.  
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In many ways the DPP reaction to these polls are "this cannot be !!" DPP Su(蘇貞昌) being behind by 28 points would be like Jeb Bush going back to FL to run as governor again and behind behind the Dem candidate by 28 point.  The fact that he can lose is obvious but he will at least keep it close.  Part of the problem is that the Ko vote outside Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) seems to be drifting toward the KMT which is really bad news for DPP.


Pro-Blue China times poll Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) now has it at KMT 43.5 DPP 36.2.  
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And cleaning up on the youth vote which is a shock
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All these pollsters have house effects but are all golden standard pollsters in addition to TVBS.  All of them had a good track record for filtering out their House effect

The most recent DPP collapse most likely has to do with KMT's Han(韓國瑜) in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) where his surge has brought in the Youth vote and is bring in the pro-Ko vote along with him to back KMT.
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« Reply #134 on: November 06, 2018, 09:55:27 am »

UDN (pro-Blue) poll on Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) still has MKT somewhat ahead of KMT.

MKT Shu(徐欣瑩)     36(+5)
KMT Yang(楊文科)    29(+4)
DPP Cheng(鄭朝方)  11(--)
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The structure of the race seems similar to Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where Ko is winning around 50% of the DPP vote and around 20% of the KMT vote.  Here Ko's ally and KMT splinter MKT MKT Shu(徐欣瑩) has 50% of the Pan-Green vote while getting around 33% of the Pan-Blue vote.  There will be a consolidation of the Pan-Blue vote around KMT Yang(楊文科) right before the election so this election will become neck-to-neck.

As mentioned before, as of 2012 all 3 candidates were members of the KMT.  This is truly a KMT vs KMT vs KMT race.  
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« Reply #135 on: November 07, 2018, 05:24:30 pm »

New TVBS poll for Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) which is pretty much one of the last ones before the poll publishing dark period behinds.  It has the KMT surge continuing and now projects a KMT win.
               poll            projection
KMT          48 (+6)         52
DPP          38 (+3)         47
KMT rebel   1                  1
KMT rebel   0.3 (-0.7)      0.3

The party ID of this poll is even more favorable to the DPP than the one a month ago with DPP party ID going from 21 to 27 while KMT party ID goes from 17 to 18 and NPP Party ID goes from 6 to 7.  But KMT's Han(韓國瑜) seems to just grow among independents to put him even further ahead. 
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« Reply #136 on: November 07, 2018, 10:43:15 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2018, 07:49:44 am by jaichind »

As the poll embargo is approaching in a couple of days various media outfits are coming out with polls while they are still allowed to.  Most of them seem to build the narrative that the anti-DPP wave is building.

A UDN (pro-Blue) poll swing county Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) has the KMT taking a strong lead

KMT   41(+7)
DPP    24(--)
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UDN also has a poll in another battle ground Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) also showing the KMT taking a large lead

KMT   43 (+9)
DPP   30 (-3)
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A Formosa Daily (pro-Green) poll for  Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) also has a KMT lead but smaller
KMT    35.7%
DPP     28.7%

The real lead most likely is somewhere in between.

Apple Daily (lean Green) poll for  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) finds the KMT being much closer than expected
KMT   36.9% (-5.4)
DPP    26.8% (+8.3)



Apple Daily also has a poll for Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) which also finds DPP lead as much more narrow than expected in a multi-cornered contest

                Total                       Pan-Green       Pan-Blue
                                                 voters             voters        Independents
DPP           25.6%  (+1.7)           61.9               10.8               31.3
KMT           21.1%  (+7.3)            1.2               60.2                10.3
KMT rebel    6.5%  (+0.6)             6.4                 4.7                 8.0
DPP rebel    2.8%  (-2.1)              5.2                 3.6                 2.2
TSU rebel    1.9%  (-1.1)              3.6                 nil                  1.6
DPP rebel    1.4% (+1.0)              1.4                 0.4                 0.9

The KMT rebel seems to be hurting the KMT candidate ability to win Pan-Green voters while the Pan-Green rebels are eating into the once solid Pan-Green vote for DPP.  Main danger for DPP is that in an anti-DPP wave election many of the undecided independents might break for KMT.


There are more signs that in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Ko is beginning to feel the heat of the KMT resurgence and is beginning to form de facto alliances with various local DPP machines to try to beat back the KMT.  Ko reads  KMT's Han(韓國瑜) surge in  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  as sucking up the internet oxygen and he has to beat back the KMT across the board to regain the initiative.   This might have blowback for Ko as the anti-DPP vote might then consolidate around the KMT.
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« Reply #137 on: November 08, 2018, 11:08:40 am »
« Edited: November 09, 2018, 07:37:38 am by jaichind »

Latest projection from me

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         42%
Ko           40%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         16%
KMT rebel  1.5%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         55%
DPP         45%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         51%
KMT         43%
KMT rebel  5%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          43%
KMT          39%
KMT rebel   7%
DPP rebel    6%
TSU rebel    3%
DPP rebel    2%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         50%
DPP          48.5%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
ex-NP        0.5% (radical unification)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           53%
DPP            44%
KMT rebel     2%
Indys           1%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           38%
MKT           36.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           25%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            50%
KMT           43%
Ind.            5.5%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1.5%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             63%
pro-DPP Ind  30%
DPP rebel       5.5%
KMT rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             49%
DPP             46%
TSU rebel      4% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      0.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              50%
KMT              48%
DPP rebel       1.5%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              49%
KMT             43%
DPP rebel       7%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      5%
Ind.              1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             55%
KMT            44.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      4%
Indys            1%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            66%
DPP             33%
Ind.              1%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            50%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      2%
Indys            2%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get  
Pan-Blue   50.8%
Pan-Green 48.9%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%
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« Reply #138 on: November 09, 2018, 07:37:05 am »

Some more polls as the poll blackout period approaches.

Pro-Blue UDN has for Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)

KMT          31 (+3)
DPP          28(+3)
KMT rebel  15(-2)

Given the pro-Blue nature of UDN polls I would say in theory the DPP incumbent should have the edge. But I do think the KMT candidate will win since as the election day approaches the KMT rebel will lose steam and last minute tactical voting will favor the KMT candidate.
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Apple Daily (pro-Green) poll on Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has it close to neck-to-neck

Ko              34.1 (-0.8 )
KMT           31.4 (+0.6)    
DPP             7.1 (-3.3)
KMT rebel    1.4 (-0.5)

In theory KMT-DPP polarization in the last couple weeks of the election should give KMT's Ding the edge.  In practice the main danger this poll shows is that while Ding has a viable and perhaps solid chance of winning the DPP candidate collapse might signal DPP->Ko tactical voting to stop KMT.  Of course that might trigger  pro-KO pan-Blue voter to switch back to KMT.
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Ettoday (which is neutral but not that high quality pollster) came out with a poll for Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)

KMT     42.6 (+7.0)
DPP     31.8 (+0.8 )

Not sure if I buy the gap being what it is given the lower quality reputation of Ettoday but the trneds are clear.
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« Reply #139 on: November 11, 2018, 10:05:07 pm »
« Edited: November 11, 2018, 10:09:30 pm by jaichind »

Another round of polls in which will now come in fast since the poll blackout will begin in a day or two.  These polls seems to indicate that the anti-DPP wave continues to build.

The shock of day was the pro-Blue UDN poll has the KMT's Han moving into a massive lead in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)

KMT               49(+17)
DPP               32(-2)
PFP rebel         2(+1)
ex-NP              1(-1)
Most likely this poll exaggerates the KMT Han's surge but it seems that the DPP is clearly at risk of losing Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) by a significant margin which would be a shock.
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Img



Pro-Blue Chinatimes poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) with key cross-tabs and change from early Oct
                Support           Pan-Blues        Independents
Ko           33.6(-8.0)      13.1(-12.9)          47.3(-11.3)
KMT        32.8(+5.6)      76.0(+11.6)        18.1(+7.5)
DPP         14.8(-0.4)

KMT's Ding got a large swing from Ko in his Pan-blue vote base.  What seems to have taken place was that the KMT Han's surge in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has also pushed up KMT support across the board, especially with the youth vote.  That threatened Ko the most as that is his base so he started to strike at Han.  But that merely polarized the Pan-Blue vote behind KMT's Ding in response.
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Chinatimes also had a poll for Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           28.7%
MKT           26.3%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           10.5%
KMT now moves into the lead over MKT.
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« Reply #140 on: November 12, 2018, 07:29:02 am »

More polls comes out which are more muted on the anti-DPP wave.

Pro-Blue TVBS poll for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
                     poll       projection
KMT            48(-2)           55
DPP            34(+4)          45
DPP consolidates the Pan-Green vote.  TVBS projection now matches my current projection.


TVBS also came out with a poll for Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT            41(-3)           
DPP            39(+3)         
Taichung just had a fairly successful Expo which pushed up the DPP incumbents numbers.  Still he is behind his KMT opponent if terms of personal approval and his overall job approval went slightly down from prev poll.  TVBS, I guess, feels the race is to close to call to make a vote share projection.


Pro-Green Formosa Daily poll on Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has Ko's led cut but still substantial

KO      38.6 (-4.5)
KMT    27.1 (+2.3)
DPP      8.3 (-3.1)

This poll also picked up on the Pan-Blue consolidation behind KMT's Ding but also saw a counter-consolidation of independents behind Ko which limited the closing of the gap.
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Ettoday which is mostly neutral and more of a second tier pollster came out with poll results of the 6 special municipalities 

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KO         38.4
KMT       36.8
DPP         7.6
Seems to match most pro-Blue pollsters

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT       39.9 
DPP       34.0
Seems to have it much closer than most pro-Blue pollsters and line up more with various third tier pro-Green pollsters (most of whom I view as more as DPP operatives than real pollsters) 

Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP       45.9
KMT       27.6
DPP is for sure ahead.  This type of lead seems beyond what the fundamentals justify

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT      45.4
DPP       31.7
KMT most likely is ahead.  Again, this type of lead seems beyond what the fundamentals justify

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP              36.6
KMT              19.7
pro-KMT indy 17.6
Pro-KMT independent seems much too strong as other polls seems to show his support falling and shifting toward the KMT candidate.

kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT           42.6
DPP            36.6
Seems to confirm most other pro-Blue polls with KMT taking a lead, and perhaps strong one.
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« Reply #141 on: November 12, 2018, 11:48:06 am »

This blog

https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/p/election.html

which seems to fancy itself as a ROC 538 has a running prediction model based on poll aggregation, fundamental information, prediction markets, and google search.  There model seems to focus less on fundamental data than I would.  Also they often leave out key third party candidate in their vote share projections.  One thing I live about 538 is that they really try to take into account of minor candidates.  Anyway what they have is:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
Ko           48%     (In theory pro-Green)
KMT        39%
DPP         14%
This projection seems to overweight non-Blue polls that has Ko 10% ahead and does not take into account of a minor KMT rebel which I have to assume takes votes away from the KMT candidate.  My projection which is more KMT friendly focuses more on fundamentals.
 

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         56%
DPP         44%
Very close to my projection and mostly matches CW.


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         43%
I assume the remaining 4% goes to the KMT rebel.  Mostly matches CW.  My projection is more based on fundamentals and more KMT friendly.


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%
Matches most CW and my projection.


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP               49%
KMT               34%
pro-KMT ind.  13%
I guess the remaining 4% goes to remaining DPP and TSU rebels.  This projection seems to high for the pro-KMT ind. and too low for the various DPP and TSU rebels.  But we will see.
 

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         52%
DPP          48%
This projection leaves out the PFP rebel and ex-NP candidate which most likely will pull in support from the KMT vote.  But overall matches my projection.


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%
Matches my projection exactly which is a more fundamental based projection. 


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           55%
DPP            44%
This leaves out a KMT rebel which I guess will pull in from KMT candidate.  Mostly matches CW and my projection.


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
MKT           44%
KMT           40%
DPP           16%
This projection double downs the DPP collapse while my projection has DPP base still voting for DPP in large numbers.  In the DPP collapse scenario MKT will benefit more and then win. 


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            51%
KMT           38%
I guess the other 11% will go to pro-Ko Pro-Green independent.  Overall this is more negative for the KMT than fundamentals would suggest but this projection is more poll focused on this one. 


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             65%
pro-DPP Ind  35%
This projection is leaving out KMT and DPP rebels which I guess will take some  support from KMT and DPP separately. 


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             52%
DPP             48%
This projection missed the TSU rebel pro-Ko candidate which I suspect will win as much as 4%.  I guess that will come out of the DPP vote share which would make this race a bigger KMT win that most, including me, would expect given fundamentals. 


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             58%
DPP              42%
Sounds about right and matches CW although more pro-KMT than my projection.


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              54%
KMT              46%
This projection is missing a DPP rebel which will come out of the DPP vote share.  Sort of matches my projection that this race will be a lot closer than CW projections of a easy DPP win.


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              58%
KMT             42%
This projection leaves out a very significant DPP rebel (he is the current DPP vice magistrate and has de facto support of the DPP incumbent.)  If  this DPP rebel vote share of comes out of the DPP vote share then this projection would match my projection.


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             40%
DPP             39%
KMT rebel     21%
This projection is much more positive on the KMT rebel than my projection.  Of course my projection is the same, narrow KMT victory.


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             60%
KMT            40%
Matches CW.  I think the KMT will be a lot closer.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            56%
DPP             44%
This projection leaves out a key KMT rebel (who is the wife of an previous KMT county magistrate and was a county magistrate herself.)   If you take her vote share out of the KMT projection then this would match my projection pretty well.


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            69%
DPP             31%
Mostly matches CW, somewhat more positive on KMT then myself. 


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            54%
DPP             46%
Does not take into account a couple KMT rebels.  If we take those vote share for KMT rebels from the KMT candidate then this will match my projection.


So overall this blog projection mostly matches my.   Only real difference is Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) where I focus on fundamentals with the large KMT base and this blog double downs on non-Blue polls showing Ko with a 10% vote share lead.
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jaichind
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« Reply #142 on: November 13, 2018, 05:44:27 am »

Poll blackout already kicked in.  Last polls to come out are final TVBS for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
           Support       Projection
Ko        39(-1)           46
KMT     36(+3)          40
DPP      12(--)           13

So TVBS see KMT closing the gap but has Pan-Green tactical voting for Ko to bring him victory.
Img



Final Chinatimes poll for Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has it at
KMT       42.5 (-1.0)
DPP        38.9 (+2.7)
with DPP candiadate gaining ground on a good debate performance.


Pro-Green Apple Daily which is a tier two pollster final polls for the 6 special municipalities are
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KO         34.1
KMT       31.4
DPP         7.1
 
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT       36.4 
DPP       30.7
 
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP       36.9
KMT       26.8
 
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT      34.4
DPP       32.0
 
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP               25.6
KMT              21.1
pro-KMT indy  6.5
DPP rebel       2.8
TSU rebel       1.9
DPP rebel       1.4
 
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT           35.4
DPP            32.6
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jaichind
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« Reply #143 on: November 13, 2018, 08:36:49 am »

On election day 11/24 there will also be a bunch of referendums some of which now has a realistic chance of passing.  The old standard was that over 50% of registered voters have to vote for a proposal.   Now a simple majority plus total vote greater than 25% of registered voters is necessary.  There high profile ones are

1) Pan-Green/DPP proposal: <The ROC team which participates in the Olympics be renamed from "Chinese Taipei" to "Taiwan.">  Polls indicate Yes 67% No 24%.  Main problem here is if it passes this sets up the ROC government on a collision course with IOC which stipulated that ROC can only participate under "Chinese Taipei" and not "Taiwan"  The Pan-Green forces want to use this referendum as a way to sooth its pro-independence base with some red meat showing that there is "progress" on independence.  This will clearly pass but IOC saying that ROC cannot participate in Olympics will force the DPP regime and its supporters face the basic international reality of PRC power.

2) Pan-Blue/KMT proposal: <All products from Japan from prefectures affected by the 2011 nuclear accident (which is mostly Fukushima prefecture> are banned from being imported to ROC>  Polls indicate Yes 61 No 28.  This is a KMT scheme to undermine DPP regime's attempt us ally with Japan to counter PRC's power.  The DPP wants Japan's help to deal with PRC and one of Japan's conditions is that the ROC lift its ban on Japanese food products from Fukushima and other ares affected by the 2011 nuclear crisis.  The KMT knows this is not popular and want to hammer corner DPP on this issue.  This one will most likely pass as well.

3) Religious conservative/traditionalist proposal: <ROC marriages law should explicitly state that marriage is between a man and a women>.  Polls indicate Yes 67 No 17.  A grand alliance of various religious organizations which includes the usually deep Green Presbyterian Church and various pro-KMT Buddhist/Taoist organizations seems on track to pass this anti-Gay marriage measure by a wide margin.  KMT tactically support this as a way to splinter the DPP alliance of Southern Taiwan conservatives and Northern Taiwan liberal progressive youth activists.

4) Possessive activist  pro-LBGT proposal: <ROC marriage laws to allow for Gay marriage>.  Polls indicate Yes 26 No 65.  This has the youth activist faction DPP as well as NPP support.  Will go down in defeat it seems.



A NPP poll asked which proposal people most support.  The Gay marriage issue clearly is the most polarizing.  26.7% most want to vote for the Anti-Gay marriage measure and 13.1% most want to vote for the Gay marriage measure.
Img


Same NPP has
1) <The ROC team which participates in the Olympics be renamed from "Chinese Taipei" to "Taiwan."> Yes 66.7 No 23.9
2) <All products from Japan from prefectures affected by the 2011 nuclear accident (which is mostly Fukushima prefecture> are banned from being imported to ROC> Yes 60.7 No 23.9
3) <ROC marriages law should explicitly state that marriage is between a man and a women>.  Yes 71 No 17
4) <ROC marriage laws to allow for Gay marriage> Yes 25.6 No 65.0
Img
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« Reply #144 on: November 13, 2018, 08:44:07 am »

NPP poll of all of ROC

Party support
KMT        28.0
DPP        16.2
NPP         12.5
PFP           1.6
NP            0.3
Overestimates NPP and underestimates DPP, but this is a NPP poll after all.

Generic vote for Mayor/County magistrate
KMT       29.1
DPP       19.5
Ind         9.7 (mostly Ko and various rebels, perhaps even MKT)

Generic vote for City/County council
KMT       21.7
DPP        15.9
NPP          6.1
PFP          1.1
NP           0.3
Ind.         9.7 (mostly pan-Blue candidates running as independents)
Img
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« Reply #145 on: November 13, 2018, 08:47:35 am »

With polls showing a medium size anti-DPP wave, the DPP response has been to say they are behind because of
a) Fake News/Fake polls
b) PRC interventionism in favor of KMT

Sounds like a exact mapping of Dem claims of Russia collusion after 2016.  Maybe DPP can borrow Robert Mueller after the elections to investigate PRC intervention and collusion with the KMT in this election.  OF course what is wrong with this logic is the PRC was for the KMT in 2014 and 2016 as well and failed to stop a landslide defeat of the KMT in both elections.  I think the power of the PRC to affect ROC election is clearly overstated.     
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« Reply #146 on: November 13, 2018, 08:53:05 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2018, 11:55:09 am by jaichind »

Pro-Green Taiwan Public Opinion Fund poll on party affiliation has KMT making a huge surge since Aug to 36.0 vs DPP at 23.5.  Back in May 2016 when Tsai took office it was DPP 49.3 KMT 16.6.  The Tsai regime has been an utter disaster for DPP party support.
Img
 


Same poll also has a generic vote for Mayor/County magistrate
KMT     33.9
DPP     24.2
Ind.     14.9 (Ko and various rebels, could also include MKT)
Img



The generic vote for City/County council
KMT       29.2
DPP        18.5
Minors      2.8
Ind.        19.5 (most of them will be various Pan-Blue candidates running as Ind.)
Img
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« Reply #147 on: November 16, 2018, 09:41:53 am »
« Edited: November 16, 2018, 09:46:14 am by jaichind »

The DPP rally cry is pretty much "Stop the PRC takeover via its KMT proxies"

The KMT rally cry is "1124 Destroy Eastern Depot".  Some context in Chinese history is needed to understand this rallying cry.  What took place in 2016 when DPP won power in all branches is they really sent after the KMT by creating a series of institutions to freeze KMT assets and also a "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" like South Africa to look into KMT excesses during the KMT authoritarian era of 1950-1987.   The KMT views these moves as just political vendetta.  Freezing KMT assets means that in 2018 is the first election ever that the DPP has a clear money advantage over KMT.   Then recently a leaked tape was released where  members of "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" said in a private meeting that they are just like the 東廠(Eastern Depot). The Eastern Depot was the feared secret police of the Late Ming dynasty that was absolutely loyal to the Imperial interests and ruthless in its tactics to suppress dissent (think KBG under Stalin.)   When this tape came out a couple of months ago it set of a firestorm as it seems to support the KMT narrative of the "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" as just another arm of the DPP.

So the KMT then came out with the rallying cry 1124滅東廠(1124 Destroy Eastern Depot) on a play on the Mid-Autumn Festival traditions in September.  The Mid-Autumn Festival is often call the Moon cake  Festival because back in the late Mongol based Yuan dynasty the an uprising was planned to be right after the Mid-Autumn Festival  and rebels gave out moon cakes to everyone as gifts  and embedded in the cake is a note "August 15th we will kill the Mongols" as a signal of when the date of the uprising will be.
Img

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The KMT ad and cry then took both the Moon Cake  Festival tradition and the common animus toward Eastern Depot into "1124 Destroy Eastern Depot" meaning on election day this DPP tyranny will be destroyed.
Img
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« Reply #148 on: November 16, 2018, 02:29:50 pm »

In Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) it seems that even the DPP camp is admitting that DPP's Chen(陳其邁) is trouble.  First DPP City council candidates are replacing their posters which had their picture with Chen taken down and replaced with just their own picture.

Img

Img

Img

Img


Also the Chen campaign, seeing that DPP Prez Tsai is not popular even in DPP territory Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) has pretty much cut Tsai out of all campaign rallies and events in the week before the election.

This race is reaching a crisis point of DPP.  For DPP to lose the combined city of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) would be like GOP losing TX or Dems losing NY or CA.
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« Reply #149 on: November 16, 2018, 02:51:46 pm »

The Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)  continues to be unclear heading into the final week of the election.  The dynamics of a 3 way makes it extra uncertain and fun.
DPP's Yao realistically is now realistically looking for an honorable but third place finish.  His main theme is that both Ko and KNT's Ding are puppets of Beijing and to beat back a PRC takeover.  In other words Yao is looking to consolidate the core Deep Green vote.
Ko seems to be flipping back and forth between Blue and Green but recently having identified the KMT's Han for the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) seat as the the person that is helping the KMT win the social media war have mostly turned against the KMT since the KMT base seems to be consolidating around KMT's Ding and Ko's path to victory is DPP tactical voting for Ko.
Ding has been running on "A vote for Ko is a vote to reelection DPP Prez Tsai" claiming that Ko Yao, and  Tsai are all in the same league trying so scam their way to victory despite the fact that DPP is deeply unpopular in  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).  Ding's slogan is trying to kill 3 birds with one stone.  It will provoke Light Blue voters to come home to Ding to vote against Tsai.  By attacking Tsai Ding hopes to provoke a Deep Green reaction to actually vote Yao.  By linking Ko to Tsai, Ding is hoping that anti-Tsai pro-Ko Pan-green youth voters which would not vote Ding anyway would be confused enough to then just not turnout.

The election result will most likely a Pan-Blue consolidation with Pan-Green partly holding up for Yao which would make it
KMT Ding  43
Ko            41
DPP Yao    15

to a complete collapse of Yao outside the most anti-Ko part of the DPP followed by a Pan-Blue counter-consolidation which would fall just short
Ko            46
KMT Ding  45
DPP Yao     8

Ding's job is to pain Ko as the Pan-Green candidate but make sure that the core Deep Green vote stay with Yao while Ko want to prevent this Pan-Blue consolidation but if he sees it taking place would then go all out to trigger anti-Ding tactical voting by the entire DPP bloc.

I can even see Tsai 2 days before the election coming out to call on all DPP voters to vote Ko once it is clear that Yao would be crushed and Tsai would be then blamed.  If she asked for DPP supporters to vote Ko she can at least then try to claim credit for a Ko victory over KMT's Ding.
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