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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #150 on: November 18, 2018, 09:26:30 am »
« edited: November 18, 2018, 10:00:32 am by jaichind »

The election season I think the most creative (although it ended up backfiring) ad was DPP's

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE7yp30TTBw

Img


Where it took a play on the word 黨(party) of 國民黨(KMT) to make it its homonym 擋(block) and accuse the KMT of blocking needed DPP reforms.  The song is quite catchy and I stiil sing it to myself from time to time.  Of course politically it was not effective as the KMT was not able to block any of the measure the ad talked about about and almost all of those measures are unpopular and part of the reason why the DPP is in trouble.  I guess this ad can rally Deep Green voters behind the DPP but actually drives away light green (including pro-Ko), independent and light blue voters.  So despite its creatively should be seen as a failure.  DPP mostly accepted it as much as they took down the ad after a few days of being mocked on the internet on for the ad.
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« Reply #151 on: November 19, 2018, 07:37:22 pm »

How many of the referenda do you think will pass?
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: November 21, 2018, 07:35:00 am »

How many of the referenda do you think will pass?

25% of the voting population would have to vote for an initiate to pass.  Turnout will most likely be 60%-65%.  Of course you have to vote for the referendum initiates separately

Step 2 and 3 are for the vote for public office and Step 4 to 6 are the vote for the referendum
Img
 

Pro-Green groups are really pushing the "ROC attend Tokyo Olympics as Taiwan and not Chinese Tapei" while the KMT are really pushing for the pro-nuclear (anti-coal) energy as well as the anti-Japan food product from 2011 nuclear disaster areas initiatives.  None of them seems to have really caught fire.  I say that out of all of them the  "ROC attend Tokyo Olympics as Taiwan and not Chinese Tapei" will barely pass but it will be a Pyrrhic victory as the IOC already stated that ROC will be banned from IOC if it tries to attend any Olympic event under "Taiwan."  I would say the DPP lost as much votes as it gained for its candidates as a result of this.  

The ones that is most likely to pass are the anti-gay marriage initiatives backed by religious conservatives with tacit support from KMT.  DPP knows this is a wedge issue are trying to run away from this topic as much as possible.  The ROC supreme court  already ruled that Gay marriage must be legalized.  But how that takes place can greatly influenced by this referendum.  What the anti-gay marriage initiative is really pushing for is a "Separate and unequal" law that legalizes Gay marriage but makes it clear that Gay marriage is not the same as traditional marriage even as it is legal.  This position is backed by most KMT and frankly DPP voters outside urban areas and liberal progress youth who are clearly in the minority here.  The supreme court ruling, if anything, by taking no law that legalizing Gay marriage off the table, actually help consolidate the anti-Gay marriage and the "Legal but Separate and unequal" center ground into one massive bloc and will crush the pro-Gay marriage vote election day.  

I am personally for, for civic purposes, putting Gay marriage on truly equal ground as traditional marriage.  So if I could vote I will mostly back the pro-Gary marriage initiatives which will get crushed. But I back the anti-Gay marriage campaign as a way to break the DPP coalition.  Whatever it takes to take down DPP and Tsai I guess.
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jaichind
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« Reply #153 on: November 21, 2018, 07:51:26 am »
« Edited: November 21, 2018, 10:55:52 am by jaichind »

The trends the last few days after the poll blackout shows a clear sign of Blue-Green polarization which I think mostly works to the benefit of DPP and hurts Ko.  The KMT Han surge in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) pretty much freaked out the DPP high command into throwing everything they have into the campaign.  An ill advised attack by KMT chairman Wu against Prez Tsai COS and former Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) Mayor Chen by calling her a "pig" and then later apologized for clearly mobilized the DPP base.  Many pro-DPP cities and counties which were beginning to lean KMT are now back at tossup.  Of course this Green mobilization provoked a Blue consolidation as well.

Ko is the main loser out of this as his Green base could shift back to DPP's Yao in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and let in KMT's Ding.  DPP's main issue here is to how to deal with Ko and its candidate Yao.  Yao is going all out to attack Ko and DPP high command fear that this would drive pro-DPP pro-Ko vote outside of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) away from the DPP candidate.  But failure to back Yao would demoralize the Deep Green anti-Ko vote who might not turn out.

On the pro-Green but also pro-Ko PTT discussion board they had a prediction contest similar to the Atlas.  Out of over 600 predictions for mayor/county magistrate races the Medium guess was DPP 8 Seats KMT 12 seats Others 2 seats even though the Mode is DPP 7 seats KMT 13 Seats and Others 2.

Looking at the Others at 2 and assuming that Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) race will go to the KMT rebel over the official KMT candidate, that means the medium guess is that both Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) (Ko vs KMT) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) (Pro-KO MKT vs KMT) are both 50/50 with the KMT winning one of them but losing the other.  KMT clearly perfers to win Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) but KMT chairman Wu would insisted on handpicking the KMT candidate might privately prefer that KMT wins Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) instead.

Looking at DPP at 8 for the medium guess.  7 seats are lean or solid DPP so let give that to them.  Out of the 3 tossups Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7), Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) the medium guess seems to have the DPP at a slight disadvantage in all of them with DPP emerging with one of them.  DPP high command will surely prefer that the one they win is  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) since losing there would be a major blow.  Of course the Mode guess is for the DPP to win 7 which means all three tossup goes KMT.

My current guess is still DPP 7 KMT 14 Other 1.  I think in a anti-DPP year all the tossups will go KMT.
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jaichind
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« Reply #154 on: November 22, 2018, 08:00:38 am »

It seems for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) DPP high command has decided to go all out to destroy Ko to stop him from being a force in 2020.  What to do about Ko has been a strategic dilemma for DPP high command since early this year.  One approach is to help him win re-election and then he will be a de facto ally for DPP in 2020.  Another approach is to have him beaten so badly in his campaign for re-election that he will know he will have no chance in 2020 and instead submit to backing DPP.  It seems DPP high command/Prez Tsai has decided on the first approach.  It seems that Prez Tsai has concluded
a) Ko cannot be trusted so it is better to take him out now
b) With Blue-Green polarization in the final weeks of the campaign, an all out attack on Ko means that Ko's supporters outside of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) are less likely to vote KMT or abstain
c) An approach of abandoning DPP's Yao would crushed DPP already poor chances in the Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) city council election and a crushing defeat there along with a poor Yao finish could lead to a domino effect in 2020 where either Ko or KMT will take out DPP

DPP Prez Tsai/PM Lai has campaigned hard for DPP's Yao and doubled down on pushing up Yao's vote.  What the DPP high command at this stage is hoping for is something like

KMT's Ding 40
Ko             34
DPP's Yao   25

where the KMT base is pushed down to its core 40% and Ko beaten by more than 5% and a clear signal to him that he has no chance in 2020 if he were to run for Prez.

You do have to give credit to DPP Prez Tsai for finally making a choice.  Dithering on exactly what her endgame is in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) I think threw away a good hand in early 2018 and by both wanting an alliance with Ko but not wanting to offend that anti-KO Deep Green faction in the DPP.

The main risk to this approach is that if Ko's youth supporters outside of  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) see the main reason why Ko was defeated was because of a last minute DPP stab then in 2020 the pro-Ko vote might sit it out in revenge and give the edge to the KMT.
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jaichind
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« Reply #155 on: November 23, 2018, 11:14:54 am »

Campaigning over.  Voting is tomorrow.  The biggest focus of both KMT and DPP seems to be still Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7).  Both KMT's Han and DPP's Chen held massive rallies of size above 100K people each.

DPP's Chen rally
Img



KMT's Han rally
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jaichind
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« Reply #156 on: November 23, 2018, 06:16:27 pm »

Final projection from me

In an medium anti-DPP wave KMT wins all the tossups except for Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) where the DPP lean is too strong to overcome despite a strong KMT candidate and the Han factor.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         42.5%
Ko           38%     (In theory pro-Green)
DPP         18%
KMT rebel  1%
Indys        0.5%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         54%
DPP         46%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         53%
KMT         42%
KMT rebel  4%
Ind.          0.5%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          48%
KMT          39%
KMT rebel   6%
DPP rebel    4%
TSU rebel    2%
DPP rebel    1%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
KMT         50%
DPP          48.5%
PFP rebel   1%  (KMT splinter rebel)
ex-NP        0.5% (radical unification)
 

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           54%
KMT           46%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     2.5%
Indys           0.5%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           36%
MKT           34.5%  (KMT splinter, pro-Ko)
DPP           29%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            52%
KMT           43%
Ind.            4%  (pro-Green, pro-Ko)
Indys          1%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             63%
pro-DPP Ind  29%
DPP rebel       6.5%
KMT rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             49%
DPP             47%
TSU rebel      3% (pro-Ko)
DPP rebel      0.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             55%
DPP              45%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              50.5%
KMT              48%
DPP rebel       1%
Ind.               0.5%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              53%
KMT             41%
DPP rebel       5%
KMT rebel       1%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             49%
DPP             46%
KMT rebel      4.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            42.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            51%
DPP             45%
KMT rebel      3.5%
Indys            0.5%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            65%
DPP             34.5%
Ind.              0.5%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            51%
DPP             47%
KMT rebel      1%
Indys            1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get 
Pan-Blue   50.3%
Pan-Green 49.4%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: November 23, 2018, 06:33:09 pm »

Likely impact on key leadership in the DPP, KMT and Ko blocs from different results:

DPP camp:
a) If DPP holds both Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) then Tsai will keep her role as  DPP leader and will not face an internal challenge ahead of 2020 and should have a better than 50/50 shot at reelection.
b) If DPP loses one of  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  then there will be pressure for Tsai to step down as DPP leader as well as a possible challenge to Tsai for 2020.  She will be wounded but should be the DPP candidate and her chances at re-election would depend on if Ko runs and who the KMT candidate it.
c) If DPP loses both  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  then Tsai has to give up DPP leadership for sure and she will face strong DPP pressure to step down for 2020.  I think DPP either way faces a difficult race in 2020 regardless if it is Tsai or Lai unless KMT nominates Wu.

KMT camp:
a) If the results are a major KMT victory sweeping all tossups with KMT doing well in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) and Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) where Wu is micromanaging the race.  Wu gets to stay on as KMT chairman and has a shot at being nominated as the KMT candidate for 2020 even tough Chu and Han are in the race as well.
b) If the results are a minor victory or even setback for for the KMT  then Wu is out for sure and he can kiss any chance at being nominated for 2020 good buy.  As to who will succeed him it would depend on
   1) If KMT does well in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) then Chu will most likely become KMT leader and become the KMT candidate in 2020 leading to a Tsai vs Chu rematch.
   2) If KMT loses Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) narrowly but does better than exepcted in Southern Taiwan counties, especially Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), then Han could become KMT leader since he would have been proven to be able to challenge DPP's hold on the South.

Ko Camp:
a) If Ko wins or loses narrowly and with DPP vote share being low then most likely he will not run in 2020 since Ko will have shown not to be able to attract KMT votes. 
b) If Ko loses narrowly but with a high DPP vote share then Ko will run in 2020 since he has shown that he can win KMT votes and will be out for revenge for DPP taking him down
c) If Ko loses by a large margin then he is out of 2020 for sure.

So a game theory view of these calculations, what result does Tsai want?  Well, she wants to avoid an internal DPP challenge AND make sure that Wu has as high of a chance being the KMT candidate AND wants Ko out of the picture.  If so then she would want to make sure
a) Ko loses badly so he is out of 2020
b) She actually would not mind if Han wins in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) since Han will not run as the KMT candidate in 2020 and Wu's chances of running as the KMT candidate has gone up.
c) DPP does will in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) and keeps it close so Chu would not be a strong contender in the KMT leadership battle.

So where does Tsai campaign last two days of the campaign season?  Why Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) [to take out Ko] and New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) [to do damage to Chu] of course.  So a game theory view of Tsai's balance of risks and rewards seems to correct in practice. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #158 on: November 23, 2018, 06:52:11 pm »

The poll blackout does not hold true for referendum items.  There was a last minute poll for the KMT backed pro-nuclear power proposal of increasing the use nuclear as a stepping stone toward more clean power. The poll had 81.9% of voters willing to vote in the referendum and 51.7% of voters would vote for it.  So if turnout is 65% then a pessimistic calculation would be (0.65)*(0.819)*(.517) = 27.5% which would put it above the 25% threshold to pass.
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: November 23, 2018, 08:49:17 pm »

Live streams

Pro-KMT CTV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpM9Jr4TN4k

Pro-KMT CTITV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUPPkSANpyo

Neutral ETToday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5X_hiHtKkM

Live results from

China Times
https://www.chinatimes.com/

UDN
https://udn.com/news/index
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: November 24, 2018, 06:16:00 am »
« Edited: November 24, 2018, 06:23:27 am by jaichind »

Counting in progress. It seems DPP is facing a medium to large anti-DPP wave.  KMT are winning almost all the tossups by a large margin.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) is KMT 56.1 DPP 42.8 !!
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) is KMT 51.9 DPP 35.6 KMT rebel 11.2 !!
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) is KMT 53.7 DPP 39.4 TSU rebel 4.7 !!
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18) KMT 57.2 DPP 38.4 KMT rebel 3.1
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) KMT 39.4 DPP 33.4 KMT rebel 9.9 KMT rebel 7.7
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) unexpectedly flipped to KMT by a large margin KMT 52.5 DPP 43.3

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) is still very close KMT 40.8 DPP 39.8 KMT rebel 18.2

KMT ahead in mega tossup  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) which is at KMT 52.4 DPP 46.3

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) is still neck-to-neck Ko 41.2 KMT 41.1 DPP 16.8

KMT ahead in KMT-MKT tossup Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) KMT 38.2 MKT 32.0 DPP 28.0 where a DPP surge helped KMT.
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« Reply #161 on: November 24, 2018, 06:21:21 am »

In the 3 cities where popular DPP incumbents with cross partisan appeal they did pretty well

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8) DPP 54.6 KMT 45.4
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) DPP 49.7 KMT 27.6 pro-Green Independent 20.4 (pro-Green independent seems like too in a lot of Pan-Blue votes)
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) DPP 53.8 KMT 39.1 KMT rebel 4.9

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) went mostly as expected KMT 56.9 DPP 43.1 where KMT did a bit better than expected

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) was a DPP victory but a humble one where DPP rebels did well DPP 38.5 KMT 32.1 DPP rebel 11.8 pro-Blue independent 8.8 TSU rebel 4.8 DPP rebel 4.2
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« Reply #162 on: November 24, 2018, 06:42:36 am »

Frankly this KMT victory is undeserved.  They pretty much did nothing these last 2 years with no resources and tons of infighting.  It was DPP's self-destruction plus Han coming out of nowhere to lead the KMT campaign that led to this.   Assuming Han wins how he does as mayor of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) will determine if this KMT revival is real or a dead cat bounce.
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« Reply #163 on: November 24, 2018, 06:46:18 am »

DPP finally beginning to fall apart in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7).  It is now 52.8 DPP 45.8
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« Reply #164 on: November 24, 2018, 06:50:12 am »

This election seems to be the return of the KMT local factions.  The places where KMT over-performed: Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  etc etc all have historically strong KMT local factions.  They drifted away from the KMT for elections outside of local government after Ma tried to cut them off.  Now they see the peril of the DPP onslaught  and swung back beyond the KMT candidates.
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« Reply #165 on: November 24, 2018, 07:09:03 am »

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) it is DPP 51.6 KMT 29.6 DPP rebel 16.1.  It was said that the local KMT Yellow factions was going to back the DPP rebel as the KMT candidate was an outsider.  It seems that played out.  DPP did a good job of keeping its base together. 
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« Reply #166 on: November 24, 2018, 07:11:49 am »

Only two races in doubt now:

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ko 41.2 KMT 41.1 DPP 16.9
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)  KMT 41.0 DPP 39.7 KMT rebel 18.0
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« Reply #167 on: November 24, 2018, 07:17:36 am »

In Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) it is KMT 38.5 MKT 31.7 DPP 27.9.  Reading the various political analysts I was one of the few people that go the dynamics of this race correctly. I projected that the Han surge and DPP counterattack would polarize the Blue-Green cleavage which would shift votes from Light Green votes from MKT to DPP giving the KMT a victory even though most polls had it neck-to-neck.   
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« Reply #168 on: November 24, 2018, 07:28:55 am »

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) KMT takes the lead KMT 41.2 Ko 41.1 DPP 16.9.  If KMT wins then this is the worst outcome for DPP Prez Tsai. She launch a strike to take out Ko with the hope he loses by a large margin and be out of politics.  If he loses narrowly then Ko and all his mostly pro-Green supporters will be out for revenge.  Even if Ko does not run in 2020 Ko's supporters might not turn out in 2020 or even vote KMT.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #169 on: November 24, 2018, 07:41:03 am »

I watched the rabidly pro-Deep Green SET live stream the entire time. It was fun watching the epic meltdown.  It ranks out there with Young Turks on 2016 US election night.
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jaichind
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« Reply #170 on: November 24, 2018, 07:52:11 am »

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) is now 52.9 DPP 45.7.  DPP's Chen has conceded. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #171 on: November 24, 2018, 08:00:31 am »

If KMT ends up winning Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) then I would have called every raae correctly except for Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) correctly.  Even there I correctly felt that it would be close.  In the end KMT won Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) in a landslide KMT 54.0 DPP 41.6 DPP rebel 2.8.
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jaichind
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« Reply #172 on: November 24, 2018, 08:10:11 am »

DPP Prez Tsai resigns as Chairperson of DPP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #173 on: November 24, 2018, 08:32:41 am »

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ko retakes the lead Ko 41.1 KMT 41.0 DPP 17.1

Based on outstanding votes I project Ko wins Ko 41.1 KMT 40.7 DPP 17.5
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jaichind
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« Reply #174 on: November 24, 2018, 09:04:18 am »

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) now at Ko 41.1 KMT 40.8 DPP 17.2

Based on outstanding votes I project Ko wins Ko 41.1 KMT 40.7 DPP 17.4

It is now comes down to pro-KMT 大安區(Da'an District) and pro-Ko 士林區(Shilin District). Fun fact.  I was born in 大安區(Da'an District) and grew up in 士林區(Shilin District).
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