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  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Keyboard Jacobinism)
  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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Author Topic: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24  (Read 16281 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: March 19, 2019, 05:59:44 pm »



Is the DPP in big trouble if Tsai loses the Primary ? I know some anti-Tsai people want the KMT back in control of the Presidential Office Building.

I have a new thread for the ROC Prez election

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316096.0

But to answer your question, I would say DPP is in trouble one way or another.  I think if it ends up being KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai then chances are Tsai will lose.  If Ko gets into the race Tsai has a chance but it is just as likely she ends up in a humiliating and weak third pace dragging down the DPP with her.  Lai winning the DPP primary at least reshuffles the deck.  The DPP hand could get worse but since they are the underdog you always rather a shuffle of the deck.  Ideally it becomes DPP Lai vs Ko vs KMT Chu.  Lai I think could get to a strong second place and perhaps win if he can provoke the PRC into doing something stupid during the general election campaign.
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