2018 ROC local elections Nov 24

[jaichind]

Fallout from the controversial Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP "primary" continue to widen and is involving Temple politics in this very Conservative and tradtionalist county.  The loser Chang (張明達) and team is coming out with a demand that Ong (翁章梁) and allies sign a oath to presented to a local temple where the deities will witness this oath.



The Oath pretty much says "I did nothing during this primary campaign to alter the opinion polling process for this primary.  If I did then may I end in a tragic death, the sprites of my ancestors find not rest and the fortunes of my decedents be cursed."

The Oath has  Chang (張明達) and team's signatures and asks Ong (翁章梁) and team to publicly sign.

[jaichind]

In Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) the DPP pretty much decided to nominate  Ong (翁章梁).   Chang (張明達) indicates that the DPP high command did not take his complaints to irregularities  seriously and is mulling an independent run.  Several key KMT Huang faction leaders who are on very friendly terms with  Chang (張明達) are the main drivers to egg him on to run as an independent.  The same KMT Huang faction leaders are also pushing KMT high command to form an alliance with  Chang (張明達) in case he runs.  If these KMT Huang faction leaders have their way the general election could be DPP-Lin faction vs KMT-Huang faction-Dissident Lin faction.

[jaichind]

Magazine Global Research came out with a poll that shows support for Unification at a 10 year high reaching 14.8% while support for independence falls to a 10 year low of 21.1%.  17% are for status quo forever which is a proxy for "soft" independence while 38.6% are for status quo and decide later which is a proxy for "will accept unification if the terms of good enough" 



The shift among the youth is the most striking.  For 20-29 year olds support for Unification have surged from 5.2% to 13.1 from early 2016 while support for Independence fell from 36.8% to 27.4% during the same period.   The Youth used to be the most pro-Independence age group.  That generational gap has mostly disappeared under poor economic environment and greater economic opportunities on Mainland China. 



A slightly more recent poll by the same magazine had 61.8% of 18-29 year old willing to move to Mainland China to enhance their economic prospects.

[jaichind]

Lee(李錫錕) who is a professor of political science in NTU will also run in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) mayor elections.  Lee was the KMT candidate for Taipei County (now New Taipei City) magistrate back in 1989 and narrowly lost.  He has been mostly out of politics for a couple of decades but does have a significant following among the non-partisan youth.  He will most likely eat into Ko (柯文哲) and KMT vote equally.


There is also talk that Freddy Lim(林昶佐), former music star and now NPP MP, will also to look to run.  Lim is concerned about Ko (柯文哲) recent shifts toward a pro-Beijing stance and sees an opening for him if DPP does not nominate a candidate.



If Lim gets into the race there might be a point where there is no point for DPP to nominate a candidate.   With both ex-DPP Tainan County magistrate Su(蘇煥智) and now NPP MP Lim(林昶佐) in the race there is not much space left for a DPP candidate would would most likely just eat more into the pan-Green vote for Ko (柯文哲) and throw the race to the KMT with DPP having no chance at victory.  

It seem what is going on is a good part of DPP base is fairly angry at Ko (柯文哲) and want Tsai to put forward a DPP candidate.  Tsai knows that doing that most likely means throwing the race to the KMT and makes her 2020 KMT opponent stronger and also could provoke Ko (柯文哲) to run in 2020. So Tsai strategy is delay, wait for other Pan-Green candidates to get into the race (Like  Su(蘇煥智) and now perhaps Lim(林昶佐)) and then say to the anti-Ko(柯文哲) faction of the DPP "there is no point in putting a DPP candidate that cannot win anyway."  Of course if I am right then Tsai here is guilty of gutting the Taipei DPP to ensure her 2020 reelection.  

[jaichind]

In Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11), DPP will not nominate a candidate but will back a pro-DPP independent and currently a mayor medium sized city in Maioli County Hsu(徐定禎.)  Given the fact that in a partisan election where the KMT is not split the DPP has no chance, DPP might as well make the race less partisan.   KMT incumbent is going to win no matter what.

[jaichind]

In Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), the KMT still have not selected a candidate yet.  But right after Huang(黃偉哲) won the DPP "primary" it emerged that ex-TSU MP Hsu(許忠信) will most likely run as an independent. 


There are already rumors from the DPP that supporter of Chen(陳亭妃) who was Huang(黃偉哲)'s opponent in the DPP "primary" might shift over to back Hsu(許忠信).  Most likely DPP will still win but this Pan-Green splinter candidate might work to narrow the DPP-KMT margin.

[jaichind]

Is Xi eligible to stand for elections in Taiwan?

No.  The ROC Constitution has clauses that indicate "before National reunification the sovereign territories of Republic of China will be divided into ROC controlled territories (aka Free ROC regions) and non-ROC controlled regions."  And then indicate that those living outside of ROC controlled regions have different sets of political rights including running for office. 

[jaichind]

In New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) the KMT "primary" is over and as expected Lieutenant mayor Ho (侯友宜)

 won over former Taipei County (what New Taipei City used to be called) Magistrate (2005-2010) Zhou(周錫瑋).

The margin was something like Ho 56% to Zhou 34% which was decisive enough for Zhou to fall in line and support Ho in the general election.


With no KMT split there does not seem much to stop the KMT from winning New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) with ease. 

The DPP in response is trying to get Su (蘇貞昌) who himself is also a former Taipei County Magistrate (1997-2005), a DPP Vice Presidential candidate, and a former DPP Chairman to run.  DPP high command does not expect Su to win but to keep it close so the KMT will be forced to use resources in New Taipei City (新北市) so they cannot be used in other races. Prez Tsai and Su are long time rivals but if Tsai insists I suspect Su will fall in line.

Latest Apple Daily poll has Su far behind losing to Ho 61-28.  But that is Su not formally in the race. and if Su does enter I suspect the race will be decided by a margin less than 5% with Ho most likely still winning. 


In many way Ho might be the future of the KMT.  I suspect Ho might end up on the KMT ticket in 2024 or 2028.

[jaichind]

Su (蘇貞昌) is in the race to be the DPP candidate for New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).  A couple of new polls came out

TVBS has

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  40%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   32%



ETtoday has Ho way ahead

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  46.4%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   22.7%


The TVBS poll was done on the same day Su announced he was joining the race so it most likely have exaggerated Su's support.    I think Su is most likely around 10%-15% behind but will close the gap one the DPP election machine gets going.

[jaichind]

Two pro-KMT media polls has Ho (侯友宜) (KMT) well ahead of old two time DPP Taipei County magistrate, former DPP PM, twice DPP Chairman, and 2008 DPP Vice Prez candidate Su (蘇貞昌) in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2).

UDN has it

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  45%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   26%


While Chinatimes has it at

Ho (侯友宜) (KMT)  50.6%
Su (蘇貞昌) (DPP)   27.1%


Usually UDN and Chinatimes has the pan-Blue support right but underestimate the pan-Green candidate by 5%-10%.  So the race is most likely something like Ho 47 Su 35.  Still a surprising large lead for Ho given the stature of Su.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) Ding (丁守中) wins the KMT "primary" in a crowed field of second tier candidates by a large margin and will be the KMT candidate.  Now the DPP will have to make a call to figure out if they should nominate their own candidate, most likely Yao(姚文智) setting up a 3 way race or back Ko (柯文哲).

At this stage it is a lose-lose situation for DPP.  The DPP Light Green and youth base has now mostly go over to Ko but the core DPP vote is fairly anti-Ko at this stage given Ko's recent pro-Beijing position.  DPP now faces a split now matter what it does.  Worse the split might extend into other counties and cities where the 2016 DPP vote has fractured along pro-Ko and anti-Ko positions.

DPP high command led by DPP Prez Tsai really want to back Ko to avoid a Ko 3rd party run in 2020 but need Ko to renounce some if not all of his more pro-Beijing rhetoric as well as his fairly recent criticisms of the DPP regime, especially those of the DPP New Tide faction.  To some extent the recent Ko vs DPP battle is really a Ko vs DPP New Tide faction battle.

The next few days will be fun to watch to on how the DPP will avoid a civil war.  Given DPP's track record of unity before a general election I am sure they will find some way to patch things up.

Most recent Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) polls are all over the place. 

An internal DPP poll has it
Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  35
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)          30
Yao(姚文智) (DDP)             25

While a KMT poll has Ding (丁守中) (KMT) ahead of Ko (柯文哲) (independent)  by 7% in an 1-on-1 race.


An ETtoday internet poll has it at an absurd

Ko (柯文哲) (independent) 48.5
Ding (丁守中) (KMT)          32.1
Yao(姚文智) (DDP)              4.0

[jaichind]

Left Independence SDP Chairperson and family friend Fan(范雲) will also now run for mayor of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) adding more pressure on Ko (柯文哲) by threatening to peal off more pro-DPP voters.    Fan was a key player of the anti-KMT collage campus movement back in the late 1980s and was a key member of the DPP before bolting in 2006 over DPP Prez Chen's corruption scandals.



She is a long time friend of the pro-independence branch of my family and is fairly close to my cousin.  I meet her a few times on my various trips to ROC.  She also attended Yale as a graduate student when my cousin was attending there as well and I got to chat with her at length a few times when I went back to Yale to visit my cousin.  We had a series of headed debates given her Left Pro-Independence Feminist position and my extreme Right Chinese nationalist ultra-capitalism position.  Still I have strong respect for the faith of her convictions and her tolerance of, from her point of view, of my abhorrent ideas.  I wish her the best of luck even as I will of course back the KMT's Ding (丁守中).   I wonder if the pro-Independence (and fairly wealthy) branch of my family is funding her campaign.  I have to ask them about that next I get to talk to them on the phone.   

[jaichind]

ROC internet betting site xfutures odds of winning on the Special municipality Mayors and County Magistrates races.  Historically these odds has a pro-DPP bias but usually misses waves.

Nothing from Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) since the KMT did not nominate their candidate yet.

For the rest they have
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6): Pro-DPP Ind 48% KMT 44% DPP 8%
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2): KMT 56% DPP 44%
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5): DPP 73% KMT 27%
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0): DPP 59% KMT 41%
Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8): DPP 61% KMT 39%
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6): KMT 67% DPP 33%
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5): DPP 60% KMT 40%
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11): KMT 72% DPP backed Ind. 28%
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1): DPP 50% KMT 50%
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3): KMT 79% DPP 21%
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8): DPP 56% KMT 44%
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10): DPP 79% KMT 21%
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3): KMT 59% DPP 36% KMT rebel 5%
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8): DPP 75% KMT 25%
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18): KMT 52% DPP 48%
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20): KMT 77% DPP 23%
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4): KMT 54% DPP 46%

[jaichind]

Latest Chinatimes Times poll (pro-Blue media) has KMT's Ding (丁守中) surging ahead in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6).

If it is KMT's Ding vs Ko then it is

KMT Ding           42.7%
pro-DPP Ko        36.5%


If DPP PM and former Tainan Mayor Lai (賴清德) and considered the strongest DPP candidate if they are determinted to win is nominated by the DPP it is an embarrassing

KMT Ding           40.0%
Ind. Ko              32.0%
DPP Lai              13.2%



Not sure what 3 dimensional chess DPP Prez Tsai is playing but her delay on making a decision on weather to back Ko or go with a DPP candidate merely served to divide the Taipei DPP into pro- and anti- Ko factions.  What is worse is that the same is taking place in other counties and cities.  The DPP hope that somehow Ko could capture some marginal KMT voters seem to have limited impact, as least as indicated in this poll.  To be fair to adjust for the pan-Blue house effect I would still view Ding and Ko as neck-to-neck in a 1-to-1 race. 

At this stage DPP's only course of action might be to back Ko since a 3 way race could end up with the DPP in a distant third and Ko will might very well run against DPP candidates in other counties/cities as well as potentially run against Tsai in 2020.

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP Formosa Poll for  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) has KMT Ding and Ind. Ko neck-to-neck in a 1-on-1 battle.

If has

pro-DPP Ko        41.0%
KMT Ding           40.9%


If DPP nominates Yao(姚文智) it becomes

Ind. Ko          35.2%
KMT Ding       33.1%
DPP Yao         15.0%


If DPP nominates DPP PM and former Tainan Mayor Lai (賴清德)

Ind. Ko          30.7%
KMT Ding       30.0%
DPP Yao         22.6%


If DPP nominates former Kaoshiung Mayor Chen (陳菊)

Ind. Ko          28.6%
KMT Ding       32.0%
DPP Yao         22.8%

[jaichind]

In  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) DPP has decide to nominate their own candidate.  Mostly due to the surge of KMT's Ding where then DPP feels that backing Ko does not guaranteed victory but instead risks a meltdown of the DPP core vote.

Latest ETToday poll has Ding in the lead if DPP goes with Yao

KMT Ding       37.5%
Ind. Ko          36.4%
DPP Yao         13.4%

[jaichind]

A lot of candidates are up in the air, especially in places like Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) but my current guess for election results are

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
KMT         43%
Ko           33%
DPP         15%
DPP rebel   4%
KMT rebel  3%
SDP           1%
Ind.           1%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)
KMT         54%
DPP         46%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP         54%
KMT         46%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
KMT         51%
DPP          49%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          58%
KMT          41%
Ind.            1%


kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)
DPP          53%
KMT         43%
PFP           2%  (KMT splinter)
KMT rebel  2%  (radical re-unificationist)


Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)
DPP           52%
KMT           48%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           51%
DPP            46%
KMT rebel     3%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)
KMT           39%
DPP           35%
MKT           26%  (KMT splinter)


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)
DPP            54%
KMT           46%


Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)
KMT             66%
pro-DPP Ind  31%
KMT rebel       2%
Ind.               1%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)
KMT             52%
DPP             48%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)
KMT             57%
DPP              43%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              56%
KMT              44%


Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)
DPP              55%
KMT             45%


Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)
KMT             48%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      7%
Ind.               1%


Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)
DPP             57%
KMT            43%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            53%
DPP             47%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            65%
DPP             35%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)
KMT            49%
DPP             44%
KMT rebel      6%
Ind.              1%

Fuijan Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41) will be all Blue battles.

If you add up these vote shares and sort them by Pan-Blue vs Pan-Greens you get an amazing
Pan-Green 49.9%  (I count Ko as Pan-Green)
Pan-Blue   49.8%
Ind.            0.3%

Back in  2014 it was
Pan-Green 56.5%
Pan-Blue   42.9%
Ind.            0.6%

And in 2009/2010 it was
Pan-Blue   51.2%
Pan-Green 48.6%
Ind.            0.2%

Which would place this election to something similar to the 2009/2010 cycle.

[jaichind]

Latest UDN (pro-Blue media outfit) poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)

If it is Ding vs Ko then it is

KMT Ding           41%
pro-DPP Ko        39%


If DPP nominates someone then it is depending on the DPP candidate

                     KMT Ding    Ko       DPP
Yao(姚文智)         39          38          8
Lu(呂秀蓮)          41           38         4
Lai(賴清德)         36           33        16

It seems if we take this poll at face value then a lot of undecided in a Ding vs Ko race are DPP supporters.  If so then DPP getting into the race will be devastating for Ko.  But not getting into the race would be devastating for DPP in Taipei City assembly elections as well as races in other counties/cities.

[jaichind]

KMT "primaries" held in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11). 

For  Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7)  it will be Han(韓國瑜) who is actually from the Deep Blue branch of the KMT but due to his fairly high charisma could make the race competitive even thought the KMT has a fairly low chance of winning. 


For  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) the KMT will nominate Kao(高思博) who is a son of a former KMT Tainan Mayor as well as the brother-in-law of current New Taipei City Mayor and 2016 KMT Prez candidate Zhu.  Kao will have to rely on his family roots in Tainan politics to make the race competitive.


What should help Kao is former TSU MP Shu(許忠信) will also run and split the Pan-Green vote. Worse former DPP Prez Chen seems to be coming out to back Shu.  Chen's angle is to create trouble for DPP Prez Tsai to the point where she has not choice but to grant Chen a parden as he is in theory still on medical parole. 


What hurts Kao is that Pro-Bue former Tainan chief of police Chen(陳子敬) is also looking to run.  Chen seems open to holding a second round "primary" between Chen and Kao to determine a United Front Pan-Blue candidate.  KMT talks with Chen are in progress.  But if Chen runs then there is zero chance of the race in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) being competitive which is the most the KMT can hope for.



KMT has other problems in Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) where there are multiple KMT candidates and KMT high command has to figure out how to run a "primary" that all parties see as fair and not bolt.  In addition KMT spliter MKT will be running MKT leader and founder Shu (徐欣瑩) will be running and will take a large chunk of the KMT vote.

In Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) where the KMT incumbent seems set to win a landslide victory against a pro-DPP independent is now facing a potential KMT rebel in the form of his KMT predecessor Liu(劉政鴻) who is threatening to run based on based changes the KMT incumbent made to various budget priorities Liu set when he was the county magistrate.

These problems in safe KMT counties highlight the unprecedented  environment KMT now has to operate in where it lost control of both the Executive and Legislative branches and lack the resources to settle these conflicts offline.  Dealing with these rebellions without resources  are part of the process of the KMT shift toward an election machine party versus a clientelist organization at the local level.

[jaichind]

It is not official yet but it is said that a "primary" was held between DDP MP Yao(姚文智) and Former DPP VP Lu(呂秀蓮) in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) and that Yao won.  This seems to pave the way for DPP to nominate Yao.



This seems, for now, the worst outcome for DPP.  Ideally DPP forms an alliance with Ko backs Ko against KMT's Ding or brings in someone so strong (like Former Tainan Mayor and now PM Lai(賴清德) or former Kaoshiung Mayor Chen (陳菊)) where in a polarized race Ko would be the victim of pan-Green tactical voting.

Now the DPP will have to run in third place and its only chance is to hammer Ko down so the Pan-Green vote shifts to Yao.  If DPP fails in this which is likely then the chances are high that Ding would win with Ko coming out of the election blaming DPP for his defeat.  And along they way as DPP goes after Ko the pro-Ko DPP youth vote in Northern Taiwan Province might turnout lower for DPP candidates.  Alternatively toward the end of the campaign DPP mostly drops Yao and tactically vote for Ko to make it a Ding/Ko 50/50 race.  But in that case the DPP Taipei City assembly races would see significant impact.

If it is Yao is the DPP candidate, then on proxy would be the 27 DPP city assembly candidates.   If they start to run away from Yao and starts aligning with Ko you can tell DPP high command has given up on Yao and is a mode to back Ko against Ding.

[jaichind]

Couple of new polls. 

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)..  ETToday (mostly neutral but I guess a slight pro-Blue lean) poll has it at

DPP                 31.2%
KMT                18.5%
Pro-Blue Ind.     4.5%
Ind.                  2.9%



Which is a fairly poor poll for DPP when radical pro-independence pan-Green  Shu(許忠信) who is in the race was not included.

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0).  Pro-Blue UDN poll has it

Support
KMT     39
DPP      32

Who is likely to win
DPP     39
KMT    25



Which implies a neck-to-neck race given the UDN house effects.  On the other hand DPP candidate Lin  is the incumbent so he so be polling better this. So overall this is a fairly poor poll for DPP as well.

[jaichind]

Do you think the KMT can survive long-term?

Clearly it can as there will always be a need for a Center-Right mainstream party in ROC.  The question is can KMT play that role and survive while keeping some vestiges of its pre-2000 era.  Namely can the KMT remain the main Center-Right party of ROC WHILE being A party of Chinese nationalism (in the pre-1970s era the KMT was THE party of Chinese nationalism.)  

The answer was fairly cloudy in the 2014-2017 period but by 2018 it is clear that pro-unification sentiment on ROC is recovering due to the problematic tenure of the DPP regime.  KMT Chairman Wu(吳敦義) has historically came from the non-unification branch of the KMT and him winning power as the head of the KMT was seen as a trend toward KMT as a Taiwan regionism force (think a DPP clone but more willing to do business with PRC) versus a Chinese nationalist force.  

But recently Wu came out strongly for unification in a critique of DPP Prez Tsai saying that the ROC Constitution states clearly that reunification with the Mainland is the goal and that if Tsai claims that she is carrying out her role under the ROC Constitution then she should not pursue any policies that is toward Taiwan Independence.   Of course Wu said this under the clear recent trend in public opinion toward unification.  In the latest poll by the ROC Mainland Affairs Council the Unification vs Independence support was 17.1% vs 19.3% when in the 2004-2016 period it was mostly in the 11% vs 24% region.  This is the most pro-unification sentiment since 2002.

Of course for the KMT to survive it has to make a comeback in Southern Taiwan Province.  Here something took place recently in the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) mayor race points to the way how that might be done.  What took place was a large bloc of the Kaoshiung Presbyterian Church decided to break with its anti-KMT tradition which stretches back to the 1960s and come out to back the KMT candidate.  Same with some Buddhist and Taoist organizations which defected to the DPP 10-15 years ago.  What drove them to do this was their objection to recent policies of the DPP regime at the center that added a more sympathetic view of LGBT and non-traditional family lifestyles in public school curriculum.  This is exactly what I predicted might take place as the DPP made progress in urban areas last couple of election cycles based on progressive values that appeals to the urban youth and urban middle class.  The KMT counterattack has to be its own tradtional values based "Operation Dixie" in the South and it seems to be taking places on its own.  

It just shows there are no permanent majorities and a coalition of everyone will not last long.

Speaking of Gay marriage that is still the big hidden ticking time bomb issue that could come out and blow up the DPP.  While political cleavage is centered around the Unification-Independence debate the DPP is safe but if the salience of the Unification-Independence  debate were to decline then social issues like Gay marriage could create significant issues for the DPP and the Pan-Greens as a whole.  

The reason is shown in a chart drawn up by former DPP MP and now political commentator Sheng Fu-Shiung

The X axis is Conservative-Progressive axis with Progressive on the Right.  The Y axis is the unification-independence axis with independence at the top.  DPP core is to the Upper Left side of chart while NGO youth activist bloc is the Upper Right side of the chart.


The basic idea is the Green bubble is where the DPP MPs are at.  But the White Bubble on the Upper Left box is where the DPP core vote is.  The DPP activist base in Northern Taiwan is the small bubble on the Upper Right corner.  The Blue bubble is where the KMT MPs which also overlaps with the KMT vote base.

The problem is clear for the DPP.  Its core vote base Southern Taiwan are made up of Bubbas and Billy Bobs yet its activist based in the North are made up of Progressive activist youth and the DPP MPs somewhere in the middle.  While the KMT is all-powerful and political cleavage mostly about unification-independence the Pan-Green coalition can hold together.  But if political debate shifts to cultural issues like Gay Marriage DPP risk losing its Northern activist based to NPP and losing its socially conservative vote base in Southern Taiwan to the old KMT factional leaders who themselves are fairly socially conservative.  

It is clear for the reason Tsai (who personally clearly for Gay marriage) is petrified of the Gay Marriage issue and pretty much done everything possible to push it to the courts and trying to take it out of the political zone of debate.  

If the  Unification-Independence issue does loses salience (which seems unlikely for the next couple of years) I can see a realignment which actually reverse the previous large realignment of 1990-2004.  In the 1980s the KMT was dominant in the rural and low educated areas while the DPP was seen as a liberal-progressive urban force even as among economic elites the KMT still dominated.  As  the Unification-Independence issue gained salience this pattern reversed during the 1990-2004 where the KMT became much stronger in the cities which tended to benefit from economic integration with Mainland China while DPP became much stronger in rural areas where they tend to suffer from economic integration with Mainland China.  If the  Unification-Independence become less salient we might revert to a political pattern more like the 1980s.  To some extent the Tsai 2016 campaign which focused on her appeal to the urban progressive youth is already a step in that direction as her relative swings where much stronger in urban areas in 2016.  The next step is for the KMT to use Gay Marriage as a wedge issue to split the DPP coalition.

[jaichind]

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) poll by pro-Blue Chinatimes has KMT within striking distance.  KMT fairly strong in middle age voters

DPP   39.5%
KMT  31.1%





While vote for Kaoshiung City Assembly is neck-to-neck between DPP and KMT

DPP   28.9%
KMT   29.7%



Of course KMT's Han(韓國瑜) most likely got a bump from he being nominated but the race seems a lot closer than what it seems before the kMT "primary."

[jaichind]

Latest Apple Daily poll (tend to be anti-KMT and slightly pro-Ko) for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6)
has a virtual tie between Ding and Ko

KMT Ding(丁守中)           29.1%
pro-DPP Ko(柯文哲)        29.0%
DPP Yao(姚文智)             13.5%



What should worry Ko is with Pan-Blue voters it is Ding 75% Ko 18%.  But with Pan-Green voters it is Yao 60% Ko 34%. So if Yao is able to get campaign and focus on consolidating the pan-Green vote Ko will fall behind Ding. 

[jaichind]

It's interesting how Chinese identification declines when the KMT is in power, and resurges when the DPP is in power.

Correct.  That is a function of feasibility concerns.  Before the 1990s unification support was high but that was because a) pro-independence position was technically illegal (which was one of the reasons why I was pro-independence in the 1980s as it was more of an issue of free speech) and b) unification was seen as a fusion of two equal entities and not a PRC takeover and mostly c) unification was not realistic so it was easy to back something that was not realistic.

Independence support surged in the 1990s due to the rise of the PRC and a PRC takeover became more possible.  By the same token the DPP 2000 victory meant that independence became more realistic and as a result pro-unification position surged in the 2000-2002 period.

DPP Prez Chen did move the needle and pushed for a referendum law and pushed hard on Taiwanese identity in 2002 ironically because his administration was running into trouble and it was clear that he was not going to win over pan-Blue voters.  So DPP Prez Chen pushed to consolidate the pro-Independence bloc even at the expense of losing out on the even larger anti-Independence bloc.

Pro-unification KMT Ma's election in 2008 made independence out of the question but made unification more likely given a remote but possible deal between KMT and CCP.   As result pro-independence position surged.  As Ma's administration ran into problems starting in 2013 that merely added to the pro-independence position.

Now that DPP's Tsai is in charge the roles are reversed and with her administration going badly it is reasonable that pro-unification position that surged to a 2002 high.

What one can draw from this is the ROC voting population just want status qua to go on forever. Unfortunately that might not be sustainable over the next couple of decades.