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  2018 ROC local elections Nov 24
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jaichind
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« Reply #225 on: December 09, 2018, 03:31:03 pm »
« edited: January 19, 2019, 06:15:52 pm by jaichind »

Then comes the two Deep Blue Aborigine heavy counties

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       33                 18(-2)          57.01%(-3.25%)
Light Blue               20                  9(+4)          23.46%(+7.69%)
Total pan-Blue         53                27(+2)          80.47%(+4.44%)

Light Green             3                   3(+1)            5.98%(+0.35%)
Green                     9                   3(-3)           12.66%(-4.04%)
Deep Green             2                   0(--)             0.66%(-0.75%)
Total pan-Green     14                   6(-2)           19.29%(-4.45%)

Just like other rural counties, the some KMT candidates choose to run as independents due to the decline of the KMT brand from the 2014-2016 elections.   Overall the Pan-Greens lost ground relative to a very good performance in 2014 and lost a couple of seats.

County magistrate race
KMT     71.52%
DPP      25.87%
Ind.       2.61%

Like many other rural counties where the KMT local factions are still aligned with the KMT some of the county assembly Pan-Blue vote does vote DPP at the county and national level.  The arrest of the current county magistrate and husband of the KMT candidate merely created a sympathy wave and pushed KMT to win by a large majority.



Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       29                 21(-1)        60.45%(-6.45%)
Light Blue               23                  6(+1)        24.32%(+13.20%)
Total pan-Blue         52                27(--)         84.77%(+6.75%)

Light Green              6                  2(--)            9.90%(-4.72%)
Green                      4                  1(--)            4.74%(-1.74%)
Deep Green              1                  0(--)            0.30%(-0.42%)
Total pan-Green      10                  3(--)          14.94%(-6.89%)

Due to the stepping down of a popular KMT county magistrate the various KMT factions battled and provoked large number of KMT rebels which threw away seats gains from the tiny Pan-Green bloc even as the vote share for the Pan-Blue surged upward in response to the large number of Pan-Blue candidates.

County magistrate race
KMT             59.05%
DPP              37.04%   
KMT rebel       2.55%
Ind.               0.83%
Ind.               0.54%

The DPP candidate is the current MP and clearly has the ability to win a good chunk of the county assembly Pan-Blue vote.  The KMT is split due to the transition of the retirement of a popular KMT county magistrate as various factions fight for power in the county assembly.  An KMT ex-county magistrate ran as a KMT rebel made the race close.  In the end the anti-DPP wave led to the consolidation of the KMT vote to a simple and large victory for the KMT candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #226 on: December 09, 2018, 11:22:06 pm »
« Edited: December 18, 2018, 06:23:17 am by jaichind »

Then we have the 3 smaller cities

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       19                 16(+2)         42.70%(-2.06%)
Light Blue               18                  7(--)           23.49%(+2.73%)
Total pan-Blue         37                21(+2)         66.19%(+0.66%)

Light Green              6                  1(+1)            6.89%(-0.64%)
Green                    15                  6(-4)           24.91%(-0.42%)
Deep Green             1                   1(+1)            1.99%(+0.75%)
Total pan-Green     22                   8(-2)           33.77%(-0.33%)

Just like other mostly rural counties, some KMT candidates ran as pro-KMT independents and the Pan-Green camp nominated more candidates but lost seats when their vote share failed to rise despite a popular DPP incumbent mayor running for re-election.  

Mayor race
DPP        54.14%
KMT       45.86%

The DPP incumbent is popular and has cross partisan appeal and it is not a surprise he won and did it carrying a solid chunk of the city assembly Pan-Blue vote.  He did fail to push up the Pan-Green vote in the city assembly vote though.




Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   1(+1)           1.77%(+0.02%)
Blue                       20                 15(--)          36.20%(+0.28%)
Light Blue               11                  2(+1)            8.53%(-2.31%)
Total pan-Blue         32                18(+2)          46.50%(-2.01%)

NPA                       12                  6(-3)           18.85%(-4.26%)
Light Green              9                  1(+1)           5.21%(-1.32%)
Green                    12                  6(-1)           22.39%(+5.63%)
Deep Green             4                   3(+2)           6.97%(+2.38%)
Total pan-Green      37                16(-1)           53.42%(+2.32%)

Overall the city assembly gained a seat from 2014.  Back in the 1990s there was a massive KMT civil war where key local KMT factions formed proto-NPA which formed an alliance with the DPP to capture power in the city assembly which continued into 2014 local elections.  This time around the leader of NPA decided to run for mayor as an independent with support from Ko.  This led to an all out war between the DPP and NPA.  The result is NPA and DPP both lost a bunch of seats and seems to have flipped the city assembly to the Pan-Blue camp even as the DPP mayor candidate won with ease.

Mayor election
DPP           49.57%
KMT           27.87%
NPA           20.31% (with support from Ko)
Ind.            0.32%
Ind.            0.26%

The DPP-NPA war actually worked against the KMT in the mayor race as the city assembly Pan-Blue vote splintered and shirted to the popular DPP incumbent and the NPA which posed itself as the real alternative to the DPP.




Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                         8                  5(-1)           23.71%(-3.03%)
Light Blue                 5                  3(--)           10.66%(+1.54%)
Hsiao faction             9                  5(--)           20.70%(+0.15%)
Total pan-Blue         22                13(-1)           55.06%(-1.34%)

Light Green             6                   5(+1)          16.10%(+2.50%)
Green                     8                   4(-1)           22.73%(-1.33%)
Deep Green             4                   1(--)             5.75%(-0.19%)
Total pan-Green     18                 10(--)           44.58% (+0.98%)

The city assembly lost a seat from 2014 due to redistricting.  Here historically politics at the city assembly level has been about the battle between the pro-KMT Hsiao faction and the KMT anti-Hsiao faction forces with the Pan-Green MLAs also split taking sides between the two Pan-Blue blocs.  After 2014 the Hsiao faction forces took control of the city council.  This time the leader of the Hsiao faction ran as a KMT rebel in the mayor election.  The KMT and Hsiao faction then fought each other at the city assembly election and the result KMT anti-Hsiao faction forces lost a seat even as the KMT candidate won the mayor election over the DPP incumbent and the Hsiao faction KMT rebel.  Now control of the city assembly is up in the air.  The Hsiao faction, the KMT anti-Hsiao bloc and the DPP are all looking to capture control.  Not clear who will win.  Most likely Hsiao faction will win out again.

Mayor race
KMT           41.18%
DPP           39.56%
KMT rebel   17.98% (Hsiao faction)
Ind.             1.28%

The KMT-Hsiao faction battle seems to allow both to eat into the city assembly Pan-Green vote and lead to the defeat of the fairly unpopular DPP incumbent.
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jaichind
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« Reply #227 on: December 11, 2018, 10:32:27 pm »

Then we have the two Fujian Province Deep Blue counties

Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +41)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   1(+1)         3.70%(+3.70%)
Blue                       10                  9(-6)         40.67%(-33.70%)
Light Blue               16                  6(+4)        38.10%(+19.90%)
Total pan-Blue         27                16(-1)         82.47%(-10.08%)

Light Green              6                  3(+2)        16.93%(+13.01%)
Green                      1                  0(-1)           0.39%(-2.89%)
Total pan-Green       7                  3(+1)         17.33%(+10.13%)

The election of a KMT rebel as the county magistrate in 2014 and an attempt this year by the KMT to retake the county led to a Pan-Blue civil war which led to a large number of KMT candidates running as rebels or independents.  The DPP at the county assembly level imploded which actually helped the Pan-Green cause which led to various social activists to be ab to run without the burden of the DPP and made large gains in terms of vote share in this Deep Blue county

County magistrate race     
KMT          47.78%
KMT rebel  46.15%
KMT rebel   2.82%   
Ind.           1.69%
Ind.           0.82%
Ind.           0.74%

The KMT recapture the county magistrate seat from the KMT rebel.  The KMT rebel ran on a broad alliance of KMT rebels, Light Blue factions and Pan-Green social activists and even though he went down in defeat indirectly helped the Light Green forces in the County assembly race.


Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +41)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Blue                       10                  7(+1)        78.96%(+14.73%)
Light Blue                 3                  2(-1)         21.04%(-14.73%)
Total pan-Blue         13                 9(--)         100.00%(--)

The county assembly elections are all Pan-Blue affairs with the KMT nominating a bunch of candidates and those left out running as pro-KMT candidates.  And like Japan where it is "if you win you are LDP" here is "if you win you are KMT" the KMT then nominate such pro-KMT independent winners in the next election as the KMT candidate.

County magistrate race
KMT            65.62%
KMT rebel    17.33%
TP               12.51% (GP splinter and backed by DPP)
DPP rebel      4.54%

The Pan-Green candidates actually won over 17% of the vote here which is unprecedented and even exceeded Tsai's 2016 performance.  Not having a formal DPP candidate helped since the DPP party lebel is still pretty toxic.
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jaichind
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« Reply #228 on: December 12, 2018, 02:18:13 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2019, 08:43:06 am by jaichind »

If we look at the city/county assembly election results for the 2009/2010, 2014, and 2018 election cycles by bloc we get

2009/2010

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue               12                  5                 0.88%
Blue                     643               419               40.59%
Light Blue             368               152               17.67%
Total pan-Blue     1023               576               59.13%

Light Green           174                66                 7.86%
Green                   307              258               31.31%
Deep Green            32                  6                 1.56%
Total pan-Green    513               330               40.73%

2009/2010 was mostly a neutral year in terms of overall environment and a good year to calibrate from.


2014 (with diff from 2009/2010)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue               24                  3(-2)           1.23%(+0.35%)
Blue                     554               386(-33)        36.86%(-3.73%)
Light Blue             363               156(+4)         15.95%(-1.72%)
Total pan-Blue       941               545(-31)        54.04%(-5.09%)

Light Green           185                62(-4)           6.60%(-1.26%)
Green                   370              291(+33)       37.08%(+5.77%)
Deep Green            51                  9(+3)          2.11%(+0.55%)
Total pan-Green    606              362(+32)       45.79%(+5.06%)

It was clear that 2014 was going to be a DPP year.  The Pan-Blue camp nominated less candidates as the Pan-Green camp nominated more candidates.  DPP made gains in 2009/2010 cycle as the city.county assembly vote share results slowly converge to the national vote balance.  As a result a lot of pro-DPP independents or DPP rebels ran on the DPP ticket in 2014.


2018(with diff from 2014)
                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue               25                  6(+3)            0.74%(-0.49%)
Blue                     490               394(+8)         40.39%(+3.53%)
Light Blue             464               190(+34)       16.35%(+0.40%)
Total pan-Blue       979               590(+45)       57.49%(+3.45%)

Light Green           242                63(+1)           7.54%(+0.94%)
Green                   407              238(-53)        31.05%(-6.03%)
Deep Green            65                 21(+12)        3.79%(+1.68%)
Total pan-Green    714               322(-40)        42.38%(-3.41%)

As the 2018 cycle began it looked lit it will be a neutral cycle where the KMT band did not recover from 2014-2016 but the DPP also losing support.  As a result a good number of KMT candidates ran as pro-KMT independents or KMT rebels.  On the Pan-Green camp, non-DPP pan-Green parties ran more candidates to try to cash in on the decline of DPP popularity and DPP itself buoyed by the 2014-2016 results increased the number of it candidates.  The result was an anti-DPP wave where DPP lost support to the Pan-Blues and ther Pan-Green parties.  Over-nomination by the Pan-Green camp lost them seats where they ended up with less seats than the 2009/2010 cycle even as the Pan-Greens ended up with a vote share ~1.5% higher than the 2009/2010 cycle.

The 2018 result "solved" one of the mysteries of the 2014 local elections.  Just like the 2012 USA election triggered the question of the "missing White voters" which was solved in 2016 when the missing white voters showed up, the 2014 local election had the mystery of "the Light Blue ticket spliters" which can be shown in this chart.

                     Pan-Blue mayor/county           Pan-Blue city/county
                      executive vote share              assembly vote share            Diff
2009/2010                51.23%                              59.13%                      -7.90%
2014                        42.84%                              54.04%                     -11.20%
2018                        50.97%                              57.49%                      -6.52%

The mystery was the unusual large gap between  the 2014 Pan-Blue mayor/county executive race and the Pan-Blue city/county assembly race.  The basic idea is that since the 1990s the Pan-Green camp has been growing at the city/county assembly level to coverage toward its true national level of support.  So one would expect the gap between these two vote share to converging.  But in 2014 it diverged which says at least 3% of the Pan-Blue city/county assembly voter which SHOULD have voted for the Pan-Blue camp candidate for the mayor/county magistrate failed to do so.  This mystery was solved when the gap swung back to a level even smaller than 2009/2010 levels.  

What seems to have taken place was that the KMT civil war of 2013-2014 which was about KMT Prez Ma vs KMT Speaker of the House Wang was a war by Ma to weaken the KMT local faction bloc led by Wang so the KMT can transform into an urban based middle class party.  A good chunk of the KMT local faction vote in anger voted for the local KMT faction candidates in the city/county assembly races but voted for Pan-Greens in the mayor/county magistrate to protest against the national KMT led by Ma in 2014.

In 2018 with Ma out of the way and the DPP at the helm in the center being a threat to their power and influence the local KMT factions flipped back to backing the national KMT in the mayor/county executive race.  So the mystery of the 2014 "light Blue vote spliters" if now solved. They came home in 2018 which added to the anti-DPP wave swing from 2014.
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jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: December 14, 2018, 09:13:00 am »
« Edited: December 18, 2018, 08:09:08 am by jaichind »

Big and shocking realignment in the Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) city assembly.  Old KMT rebel faction NPA which has been in the  Pan-Green camp for a couple of decades decided to merge into the KMT, ending, for now the mega Pan-Blue civil war that started in the 1990s that led to the creation of proto-NPA.  

NPA shot its bolt this election by having its leader run in the mayor election with Ko's support to try to capture power which took a bunch of Pan-Blue votes but failed to defeat DPP.  In the city assembly race the NPA-DPP war merely gave the Pan-Blue bloc a majority on its own.  NPA working with DPP last couple of decades was always about getting control of the city assembly for itself.  Now that is gone the NPA decided to close shop and merge back into the KMT.

It is ironic now that the KMT will be in the strongest position in the city assembly since the 1990s right after its worse ever defeat in the mayor race ever.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)

                        Candidates      Winners        Vote share
Deep Blue                1                   1(+1)           1.77%(+0.02%)
Blue                       20                 15(--)          36.20%(+0.28%)
Light Blue               11                  2(+1)            8.53%(-2.31%)
Total pan-Blue         32                18(+2)          46.50%(-2.01%)

NPA                       12                  6(-3)           18.85%(-4.26%)
Light Green              9                  1(+1)           5.21%(-1.32%)
Green                    12                  6(-1)           22.39%(+5.63%)
Deep Green             4                   3(+2)           6.97%(+2.38%)
Total pan-Green      37                16(-1)           53.42%(+2.32%)

Overall the city assembly gained a seat from 2014.  Back in the 1990s there was a massive KMT civil war where key local KMT factions formed proto-NPA which formed an alliance with the DPP to capture power in the city assembly which continued into 2014 local elections.  This time around the leader of NPA decided to run for mayor as an independent with support from Ko.  This led to an all out war between the DPP and NPA.  The result is NPA and DPP both lost a bunch of seats and seems to have flipped the city assembly to the Pan-Blue camp even as the DPP mayor candidate won with ease.

Mayor election
DPP           49.57%
KMT           27.87%
NPA           20.31% (with support from Ko)
Ind.            0.32%
Ind.            0.26%

The DPP-NPA war actually worked against the KMT in the mayor race as the city assembly Pan-Blue vote splintered and shirted to the popular DPP incumbent and the NPA which posed itself as the real alternative to the DPP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #230 on: December 14, 2018, 09:24:53 am »
« Edited: December 14, 2018, 05:17:19 pm by jaichind »

Latest TVBS poll for 2020 race (assuming Ko does not run) with various KMT/Pan-Blue candidate vs DPP Prez Tsai or DPP PM Lai

      Candidate             Support
KMT      DPP        KMT     DPP
Chu       Tsai         50       23
Wang     Tsai        40        26    Wang is KMT ex-speaker of the House and old rival of KMT Ma
Ma        Tsai         37       29
Chang    Tsai        34        27    Chang Former PM, not in KMT but clearly Pan-Blue
Wu        Tsai         26       34
Chu       Lai          40       39
Wang     Lai         27        45    Wang is KMT ex-speaker of the House and old rival of KMT Ma
Ma         Lai         31        45
Chang    Lai         26        47    Former PM, not in KMT but clearly Pan-Blue
Wu        Lai          18       53

I think Chu vs Lai represents where the race will be in a generic KMT vs DPP race which is neck-to-neck.  If Lai does remove Tsai in the DPP primary the damage to the DPP brand will be so bad that he will lose anyway.  What the DPP has to do is to transfer Lai's support to Tsai to give Tsai a chance.

Wu is clearly the worst candidate for the KMT and Chu the best.  Chu is more likely to win but in case Wu is nominated his support will converge to Chu's levels of support especially if Tsai is on the DPP side.  

If Ko gets into the race then all things equal DPP will be hurt more.

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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: December 14, 2018, 09:43:23 am »

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) there will be a by-election for a Congressional seat which will be critical to what might take place in 2020.  DPP candidate for mayor Yao resigned his Taipei City 2nd Congressional seat which is fairly pro-Green in the 2018 race.   The seat is PVI Green+7 which makes it like Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) or Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6).

The DPP is eager to retain this seat after a big setback in the 2018 elections.  But Ko also will run a candidate to test the waters to see if he can run a viable 2020 race for Prez.  Setting up a 3 way race of KMT vs DPP vs Ko.

In the Mayor race the vote split for this district was

Ko    43%
KMT  33%
DPP  24%

Main issue for Ko is that a pro-Ko candidate is not the same thing as Ko and a by-election will have lower youth turnout.  On paper this race is lean Ko but depending how Light Green and Light Blue voters that voted Ko vote I would say this election might be a close 3 way race.

Of course if the pro-Ko candidate wins then chances are high and getting higher that Ko will run in 2020.  The DPP is thrown into the same strategic dilemma as the 2018 Taipei City mayor race earlier this year  An out all assault by DPP to retain the seat  must mean open warfare against the pro-Ko candidate.  But if they do not that the pro-Ko candidate wins or loses narrowly then Ko will have more reason to get revenge on DPP in 2020 and make the pro-KO and Deep Green base even more hostile to each other.  If the DPP sees that the race is not going their way and tactically backs the pro-Ko candidate then the Deep Green vote will turn on Tsai and might not turnout in 2020.  The DPP is stuck.

I say the DPP should go all out.  Ko respects power and will not no mercy for the weak.  If the DPP shows itself to be weak that will be more reasons for Ko to run in 2020 and win outright by taking over the Pan-Green vote.  DPP has to show Ko that Ko cannot win in 2020 and will be at beat a spoiler.  The way to show that is to run a strong campaign and go all out for a win.  Not sure Tsai is taking that approach. Tsai asked for a public meeting with Ko to in theory discuss development of Taipei city but it was clear it was Tsai trying to make nice with Ko.  This is the wrong strategy.  Making yourself look weak and hope your rival have sympathy for you and then back down or even back you in 2020 is a foolish strategy. That is now how you deal with bullies which is what Ko really is now.   
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« Reply #232 on: December 16, 2018, 09:43:13 am »

A look a the "Use Taiwan as opposed to Chinese Taipei" referendum results which I view as a proxy vote for a "safe Taiwan independence vote" (a real one will not take place and will get a lot less support due to the real chance of a massive military strike from PLA if it passes) shows the Blue-Green balance has moved fairly far toward the 1990s patterns.  If you break down the 319 townships into (urban, suburban, and rural) and then look at the Pan-Blue vote since 1994 you get

1994 Taiwan Province governor and special city mayor elections
Blue-Green balance mostly even relative to urbanization
              Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             60.03%               
Urban           60.33%              +0.30%
Suburban      60.49%              +0.46%
Rural            59.14%               -0.89%


1996 Prez election
(The KMT incumbent Lee had cross partisan appeal and won a bunch of Pan-Green vote so I had to employ my own model to calculate the true Pan-Green vote)
A shift away from Pan-Blues in rural areas
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             65.41%               
Urban           66.00%              +0.59%
Suburban      65.45%              +0.04%
Rural            64.09%               -1.31%


2000 Prez election
More clear Pan-Blue strength in urban areas and weakness in rural areas.  This pattern I call "the system of 2000" since it was in the 2000 election this trend became more clear.
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             60.07%               
Urban           61.08%              +1.01%
Suburban      59.85%              -0.22%
Rural            57.87%               -2.20%


2004 Prez election
Narrow Pan-Green victory based on a last minute assassination attempt on DPP Prez Chen who appealed strongly to rural Pan-Green voters.  The trend of urban Blue, rural Green becomes even more pronounced.
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             49.89%               
Urban           52.11%              +2.02%
Suburban      48.06%              -1.83%
Rural            45.60%               -4.29%


2008 Prez election
The same pattern as 2004 but Blue regains in rural area a bit anger at DPP regime lead to falloff in DPP turnout.
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             58.45%               
Urban           60.21%              +1.76%
Suburban      57.76%              -0.69%
Rural            54.50%               -3.95%


2012 Prez election
KMT's Ma won re-election but disappointment in KMT led to some drop off in KMT turnout and some DPP turnout came back.   As a result the Blue urban Green rural pattern increased a bit.
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             54.37%               
Urban           56.37%              +2.00%
Suburban      53.58%              -0.79%
Rural            49.90%               -4.47%


2016 Prez election
DPP landslide victory.  Part of DPP Tsai strategy was to appeal to urban progressives to hit KMT where is is strong which seems to have worked as the relative Blue edge in urban areas fell.  Deep Blue voters clearly did not turnout which added to the erosion of the "system of 2000."
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             43.88%               
Urban           45.13%              +1.25%
Suburban      43.58%              -0.30%
Rural            40.97%               -2.91%


2018 "de facto Taiwan Independence" referendum - we should view the No percentage as "Pan-Blue vote'
The Blue edge in urban areas and Green edge in rural areas is now pretty back to 1996 patterns
               Pan-Blue vote       Pan-Blue PVI
Total             54.80%               
Urban           55.32%              +0.52%
Suburban      55.30%              +0.50%
Rural            53.21%               -1.59%

So we are getting close to "back to the future" where the 1990s patterns are reemerging.  One reason has to do with the quick shift by PRC on the economic scale.  Back in the 1990s PRC was mostly competing with rural ROC low tech industry so PRC-ROC economic integration tend to hurt rural areas more so they go with DPP.  Now advanced provinces on the PRC are mostly economically at par with ROC urban areas so PRC-ROC economic integration now are more likely to hurt urban areas especially when PRC is emerging as a major buyer of ROC agriculture products.

Part of the reason has also to do with gay marriage.  A look at the "Marriage should be defined as between a man and a women" vote by urbanization has it at
                     
                   Yes Vote
Total             72.48%
Urban           70.51%
Suburban      75.33%
Rural            75.87%

So rural and suburban areas are stronger (not unexpectedly) against gay marriage.  This cuts across partisan lines.  If we look at the "Use Taiwan as opposed to Chinese Taipei" referendum results and divide townships into "Blue" (above average oppose) and "Green"(above average support) and then look at gay marriage referendum results across urbanization and Blue Green you get

                             Yes Vote
Blue Urban               70.48%
Green Urban             70.55%
Blue Suburban          75.48%
Green Suburban        75.12%
Blue Rural                78.31%
Green Rural              75.35%

Blue Rural areas include districts which are heavy Aborigines who are mostly Christian and even more likely to vote against gay marriage.  Other then that Blue vs Green by urbanization has exact same results.

In fact if you just look at the gay marriage vote by "Blue" townships vs "Green" townships you get

              Yes Vote
Blue         72.08%
Green       72.81%
       
So the typical "Green" township is MORE anti-gay marriage than the typical "Blue" township.

So we are back to the same DPP dilemma as I pointed out earlier where the DPP push for gay marriage to capture the urban progressive vote risks losing its much larger South rural conservative bloc.
Image Link

For 2020 NPP and part of the DPP Progressive wing might continue to try to hammer away at the gay marriage issue.  KMT's response should be "Excellent, Bring it On !!!"
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« Reply #233 on: December 16, 2018, 04:12:07 pm »

More data on how Blue-Green split maps on the the Gay marriage referendum which sort of reinforces my point.  If you break up the "Use Taiwan as opposed to Chinese Taipei" referendum results by quarters into Deep Blue, Light Blue, Light Green and Deep Green townships and then look at the Gay marriage referendum (Marriage is between a Man and a Women) you get

                   Yes
Deep Blue   72.61%
Light Blue   72.15%
Light Green 71.46%
Deep Green 73.78%

So whereas the Blue districts are almost all on the same page on Gay marriage,  Deep Green rural and Light Green urban areas do split somewhat on this topic.
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« Reply #234 on: December 16, 2018, 04:15:53 pm »

One good news for the Pan-Green camp on the "Use Taiwan as opposed to Chinese Taipei" referendum is that it seems the in heavy Aborigine townships the vote against is lower than what their PVI vote lean would suggest.  This implies that as long political cleavage on ROC continues to be the Unification-Independence debate the Blue-Green 90/10 split of Aborigines should over time shift to something like 65/35.    Of course for this to occur the DPP must not make gay marriage a key issue as the same townships had massive anti-gay marriage votes.
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« Reply #235 on: December 18, 2018, 01:39:49 pm »
« Edited: December 18, 2018, 01:50:01 pm by jaichind »

The 2018  "Use Taiwan as opposed to Chinese Taipei" referendum realignment movement back to the 1990s story works on a regional basis as well.  If you take the larger counties/cities and use traditional grouping you have

北北基(Taipei Taipei Keelong) - Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)      Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8) Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) -> Urbanized service oriented North (Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) being add to this more recently as it is becoming much more urbanized and is part o the Greater Taipei media market.)

桃竹苗(Taoyuan Hsinchu Maioli) - Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)  Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) - Concentration of Hakkas and moving into the high tech economy

中彰投(Taichung Changhua Nanto) - Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)  Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1) Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +3)   - Central middle level industry

雲嘉南(Yunlin Jiayi Tainan ) - Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8) Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10) Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)) - Rural low tech industry South.

高高屏(Greater Kaoshiung  Pingdong) - Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8) - Deep South medium tech industry.

If you then map the 1994 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2016 Pan-Blue PVI AND the 2018 Yes on "(Marriage is between a Man and a Women) (pro-traditional marriage)  you get

               1994      2000      2004        2008        2012       2016      2018     Traditional marriage
北北基     -2.14%    1.99%   4.16%      3.12%     3.40%     2.25%    0.33%             68.69%
桃竹苗      5.51%    7.60%    7.62%      8.66%     8.23%     7.17%    4.76%             72.71%
中彰投      2.73%    2.08%   -0.42%     1.09%     0.69%     1.00%    1.62%             74.57%
雲嘉南     -4.67%  -9.82%  -11.20%  -11.14%  -11.33%   -9.64%   -6.12%             74.14%
高高屏     -1.18%  -6.81%   -7.06%    -8.31%   -8.19%    -7.29%   -3.80%             74.31%

So Heavy urbanized North 北北基 used to be an area of KMT weakness in the 1990s have shifted to a pro-KMT area in the 2000s is now shifting toward the 1990s pattern again.  
Hakka North 桃竹苗 was a key KMT area which got stronger for KMT in the 2000s but now shifting back.  
Central 中彰投 use to lean KMT but became battleground zone in the 2000s is now shifting back to a lean KMT area.
Rural South 雲嘉南 was a key DPP area but then became a DPP stronghold in the 2000s is shifting back to a pro-DPP are but the KMT cutting down the DPP edge.
Deep Semi-urban South 高高屏 used to be lean DPP but became very strong for DPP in the 2000s is shifting back toward a lean DPP area.

KMT made relative gains in regions that voted above average for Traditional marriage. 
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« Reply #236 on: December 19, 2018, 09:55:15 pm »

Global Views Magazine annual poll (fairly large scale).   Sort of like the Pew polls in USA

Prez Tsai Approval/Disapproval 19.0/70.7   was 44.4/36.2 back in June 2016
Image Link

PM Lai Approval/Disapproval 32.5/53.8  was 42.9/43.2 back in Jan 2018
Image Link

Pan-Blue vs Pan-Green ID 37.1 vs 25.2.  Back in 2016 March it was 25.7 vs 42.2
Image Link

37.8% would back an independent for President 33.1% perfer someone from a major party 17.3% fine either way.
Support for Independent President is higher with youth (Danger signal for DPP)
Image Link

Support for independent President higher with those with higher education (Danger Signal for KMT)
Image Link

Of those that support Independent President
54.8% back Ko
18.6% back Foxconn head Guo (pro-Pan-Blue)
7.3% back Former PM Chang (pro-Pan-Blue)
Image Link

Unification vs Independence.  Unification 14.7 Independence 22.8 Status Quo forever 15.6 Open to either but Decide Later 38.0.   Greater Unification (Unification+Open to both) 52.7 Greater Independence(Independence + Status Quo forever) 30.3 
Image Link

53.7% support "92 Consensus" (There is only One China but both sides (ROC and PRC) get to define what that One China is for them).  Back in Jan 2018 it was 47.5  PRC is pretty much saying any economic cooperation with ROC must have the current regime on ROC at least accept "92 Consensus" something which DPP rejects.
Image Link

Impression of Mainland China
Better 48.3 Always positive 10.9 Worse 16.8 Always negative 11.6
Image Link
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« Reply #237 on: December 21, 2018, 02:24:29 pm »

A ROC election blog did an scatter plot analysis of KMT vs DPP votes as a function of total voter based at the precinct level when compared to 2014.

Here is Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)
Image Link

For there it was able to construct the shift between KMT and DPP and non-voters between 2014 and 2014 for Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7).  The basic story was that in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7 the inactive KMT base came out and pushed KMT's Han to victory with fairly lower levels of DPP defection to KMT.
Image Link

and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) with the story of a good chunk of the 2014 DPP vote not turning out and others defecting to KMT while the KMT picked up only some votes from non-voters.
Image Link
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« Reply #238 on: December 21, 2018, 02:30:31 pm »

The same blog did the same for all cities and counties

Image Link

Image Link

With the net conclusion that looking at the KMT flips

Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7): 2014 inactive KMT base non-voters came out at high rates to vote KMT
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8), Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4): Part of 2014 DPP vote did not turn out
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1): 2014 DPP voters defected to KMT
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« Reply #239 on: December 21, 2018, 05:05:20 pm »

Deep Green (and pro- DPP ex-Prez Chen) and mostly hostile to DPP Prez Tsai Taiwan Brain Trust)新台灣國策智庫) came out with their semi annual poll after the elections

Diff are vs July 2019

DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval 19.0(-12.1)/66.8(+12.0)
Image Link

DPP PM Lai approval/disapproval 32.7(-7.9)/51.8(+7.0)

Party ID
KMT     30.0 (-0.2)
DPP      20.5 (-2.7)
NPP     17.0 (+3.5) (way to high but I guess this is a Deep Green poll)
Ind.     21.9(+3.2)
Minor    4.7(-1.2)
DK        5.9(+2.6)

Generic Congressional Vote
KMT          23.1
DPP          16.9
Third Party 22.3 (High potential for Ko forces)

Who should represent DPP in 2020
DPP Prez Tsai     17.3(-6.3)
DPP PM Lai         56.5(+7.9)

Various trial heats

                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Tsai              41.4(-4.8 )      82.8   10.0    13.0     42.8    66.3     30.9    76.1     27.1
KMT Wu               29.4(-1.4)      12.0    66.6    71.7    17.8      9.8       9.9    16.0     23.8
Wu loses the Independents and a good part of the KMT vote and completely loses PFP to Tsai which is symbolic of the negatively of the Pan-Blue base against Wu.  In reality if Wu is the candidate they will come around and make the race close.


                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Tsai              27.8(-5.8 )     67.5     3.6       9.7    16.0    41.9     16.6    76.1     17.0
KMT Chu             53.6(-8.5)      22.6    90.2    85.3    77.7     40.2     41.6    21.0     43.7
Tsai loses indepednents and a good part of the DPP base and ties Chu in NPP is symbolic of the rejection of her by the Pan-Greens.  Real result will be a lot closer as the Pan-Greens will consolidate around Tsai if she is the DPP candidate.


                          Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Lai               60.3(+2.3)     95.7   29.5    16.8    62.2    81.0     16.6    84.2    50.0
KMT Wu              19.9(-2.8 )       2.7   49.9    63.9    15.7     7.7      41.6     7.9      7.6
Even more extreme total breakdown of Wu.  In reality Wu would lose but with some Pan-Blue consolidation it will be a lot closer than this.  



                          Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Lai               41.0(-5.5)     90.9     8.3    25.5    18.1    56.1     32.1    69.4    32.4
KMT Chu             43.8(+2.2)      6.9   83.5    74.5    55.5    32.1     33.0    32.4    33.7
What a Generic KMT vs Generic DPP would look like with DPP with incumbency but without the baggage of Tsai's poor ratings.  In reality Lai would do worse then this since for Lai to win nomination he has to elbow out Tsai and cost him Pan-Green unity.


Now if we add Ko

                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Tsai              19.1(-8.0)      56.7     2.7    11.9      7.3     17,8     11.4    33.7     9.7
KMT Wu              14.1(-4.2)        2.7    35.8   25.8       9.5      4.7       3.4     8.1      9.7
Ko                      53.3(+13.3)    36.6   50.7    57.5    83.2     66.5      58.6   42.4    25.6
KMT and DPP collapse. Wu actually loses the KMT vote.  In reality Ko will win but Pan-Blue and Pan-Green consolidation will make it closer.


                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Tsai              17.2(-8.1)      54.9     0.6      9.7      4.1     17.2      9.8    33.7     3.5
KMT Chu             32.5(+1.2)       8.6    69.4    56.7    26.6     10.6     23.7   13.1    13.1
Ko                      41.1(+8.7)     30.2    26.6    33.6    69.3     63.3     48.8   42.4    52.5
KO still sweeps PFP and NPP vote.  We should start viewing NPP and PFP as Ko partiesi despite clear ideological disagreements between NPP and Ko.  NPP should really be seen as a Pan-Green protest vote party just like PFP should be seen as the Pan-Blue protest vote party.  In reality Chu and Tsai will consolidate their bases a bit more to make it a neck-to-neck  race between Chu and ko.  These number should scare Tsai.  They look just like Ko vs Ding vs Yao back in the late summer of 2018 for the Taipei mayor race where Ko is now "the Pan-Green candidate."


                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Lai               34.4(-2.4)      77.5    13.1    38.6    19.4     35.0     27.3    41.8   21.1
KMT Wu              11.9(-3.6)        2.0    33.3    19.9      9.5      1.8       2.5      0.0     2.0
Ko                      43.5(+9.2)     18.9    44.5    30.8    71.1     59.5     47.9    50.3   52.7
Here Ko wins the KMT vote and becomes "The Pan-Blue candidate."  Again in reality Pan-Blue and Pan-Green consolidation would make it a tossup between Lai and Ko.  Ko will win as Lai will be damaged by having to knock out Tsai in the DPP primary.


                           Overall          DPP     KMT      NP      PFP     NPP      Ind.    Minor    DK
DPP Lai               28.2(-5.4)      75.3     3.4     34.4    16.9     30.1     20.6    41.8     8.8
KMT Chu             29.5(-0.2)        4.8    69.1    28.9    16.4      9.5      18.6     5.0   20.0
Ko                      34.3(+6.1)     17.7    22.4    35.1    66.7     56.3     41.5    42.4   47.7
This will be a fun 3 way race.  Lai and Chu keep most of the KMT and DPP base while Ko picks up the PFP NPP and independents.  In reality Blue Green consolidation will weaken Ko and Lai will lose support to know out Tsai so Chu should win this one.

According to this poll Ko for sure gain ground in the Prez race despite only winning narrowly.  I think if it is Tsai vs Wu vs Ko then Ko will actually win.  Else he will do well but will mostly be a spoiler for
KMT or DPP, most likely DPP.
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« Reply #240 on: December 23, 2018, 09:26:23 pm »

1/27/2019 will see 5 Legislative by-elections which are the result of the 2018 local elections.  5 MPs resigned from their seat as a result of these 2018 elections.

In Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +38) KMT's Yang won the County magistrate race 
In Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd district (PVI Green +16) DPP Huang won the Mayor race   
In Changhua County(彰化縣) 1st district (PVI Green +1) KMT Wang won the County magistrate race
In Taichung City(臺中市) 5th district (PVI Blue +1) KMT Lu won the mayor 
In Taipei City (臺北市) 2nd district (PVI Green +7) DPP Yao resigned from his seat right before his losing bid for the mayor seat to try to trigger a wave in his favor.

Except for the Taipei City (臺北市) 2nd district the incumbent party should win.  In Taipei City (臺北市) 2nd district it is turning into a close 3 way race between the DPP, KMT and a pro-Ko candidate.  In the mayor race this district voted Ko 43 KMT 33 DPP 24 but the pro-KO candidate for sure will not have the same pull as Ko and the DPP candidate is stronger than Yao.  I say the race right now is almost 33 vs 33 vs 33 with perhaps a slight edge for the DPP candidate.  Ko post election has been shifting Pro-Blue in his positions in preparation for a 2020 Prez run and if anything is helping the DPP candidate and hurting the KMT candidate.  The result will be up in the air until election day I suspect. 
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« Reply #241 on: December 25, 2018, 08:07:59 am »

Today is inauguration day for those elected in local elections of 11/24.  It is also a day where the various city and count assembly speaker and vice-speakers are elected.  Overall it was another disastrous day for the DPP.  The KMT captured 19 out of 22 speakers, DPP 1, 1 independent speaker was elected with DPP support, 1 independent speaker was elected with KMT support.  The various KMT MLAs and KMT allies held firm in backing the KMT slate of candidates in a show of anti-DPP unity that should have DPP concerned about 2020.

City and county assembly speaker election results
Image Link

In  Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), DPP was hoping for help from Deep Green and pro-Ko MLAs in a last ditched attempt to stop the KMT.  It seems the pro-Ko forces where neutral and if anything backed the KMT in a sign that there is not much hope for a Ko-DPP alliance in the future, for now.

KMT flipped Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7), a well as ended power sharing in  Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8), Yilan County(宜蘭縣) and (PVI Green +6), and New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2)  as expected as the various Light Blue pro-KMT independents held firm in backing the KMT slate of candidates.  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) also flipped as the pro-Green KMT splinter faction NPA merged into KMT making that a foregone conclusion.

The only relative success for the pan-DPP forces was in Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3) where the KMT choose not to support the a pro-KMT Hsiao faction candidate for speaker and allowed a bloc of pro-DPP independents to capture the speaker seat with outside DPP support.

The main shock of the day was in  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) where DPP was facing internal rebellion which finally blew up into the open.  A bloc of DPP rebel MLAs broke from the DPP, formed an alliance with the pro-KMT NPB MLAs and with outside support of the KMT was able to capture the speaker and vice-speaker position.  It seems toward the end the DPP leadership in  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) realized what was about to take place and there were rumors that the DPP even tried to open channel of talks to the KMT to form a DPP-KMT aliance to stop the DPP rebel faction which was spurned by the KMT.  It seems in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) the DPP is getting what I call "the KMT disease" where a ruling party has been so dominate with strong local roots that the various internal factions started to put its factional interests above the party since the opposition is relatively weak and not a threat.  The ruling party internal factions would view the opposition as more as a stepping stone to beat up on its ruling party rivals.  This is exactly the same way the KMT lost power in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5) city assembly back in the 1990s.

So after a disastrous day the DPP can only achieve trifecta only in Jiayi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10).
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« Reply #242 on: December 27, 2018, 05:45:00 pm »

I have been looking over the various ROC media coverage election night of the count.  My conclusion is that almost all of them are making up the vote count to get market share of eyeballs.

Historically the KMT have party workers at each polling precinct that report back the status of the unofficial count.  The Election commission published numbers are certified numbers which are far behind the real count.  The KMT used to feed these numbers of KMT owned 中視(CTV) which gave it an edge as far as viewership election night.  Other TV channels then counter with their own quick count based on what they claim are their own stringers that provide them current count numbers.  The competition between these media houses was so intense that these numbers usually ran father ahead of the KMT count.

In the meantime KMT sold off 中視(CTV) so it started to provide its data to 公視(PTS) which is really public television like PBS instead but it does not matter that much since all other other media counts are way faster than the KMT count.

Looking at the history of each channels count for the 6 spherical municipalities it is clear what the "vote count" algorithms is.

a) Compute an internal made up count by looking at the KMT numbers, look at key precinct results as report by the election commission where it exists and combine it with exit polls to derive what the count SHOULD be. 
b) For each city first determine if the result is a foregone conclusion.  If so just ride the KMT wave and report the 公視(PTS) numbers.  But if your rivals are running ahead of the KMT count then do the same and show the internal computed count.
b) For each city see if our core viewers would be interested in the result (for Pan-Blue channels it would be Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0), and Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) while for Pan-Green channels it would be Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6),  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)  and Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7))

For Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6), it is clear all channels ran well ahead of the KMT count but by 6:30PM it was clear that Election commission number are coming in much slower than expected and there was a risk that the TV channels will run so far ahead that it could not converge to the right result when they came in.  So around 6:45PM all of them pretty much slowed the report of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +6) number to a trickle and by 9PM most of them switched over to the KMT numbers.    The state controlled 華視(CTS) was very bad as it internal model had DPP Yao doing much better than how he ended up.  So its count at 7:15PM was Ko 425,305 KMT Ding 418,256   DPP Yao 274,099 when the KMT count at the same time was Ko 206,917 KMT Ding 206,274 DPP Yao 84,919.   But the final result ended being Ko 580,663 KMT Ding 577,096 DPP Yao 244,342. So  華視(CTS) actually report number for Yao at 7:15PM that ended up higher that what he eventually go.   華視(CTS) realized its mistake soon after that as more results were coming in so it slowed just stopped reporting Yao's numbers since they were embarrassments. 

New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) was a foregone conclusion so every channel obeyed a truce and just reported the KMT numbers.

For  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) the official count was especially slow so after racing ahead all media channels just pretty much stopped updating their own fake numbers starting around 6:00PM  and as the KMT numbers caught up just started using the KMT number starting around 7:15PM in a coordinated truce.  This mostly worked because the internal projections mostly matched the real result.

For Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) all the channels race ahead but by 8:15PM just switched over to the KMT numbers as it caught up with its own fake numbers.  This mostly worked because the internal projections mostly matched the real result.

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) was a real fiasco.  Since it is a foregone conclusion and the Pan-Blue voters in the North do not care, the pro-Blue channels just showed the KMT numbers.  The Pan-Green channels need to compete so they all raced ahead with their made up numbers.  Problem is that their model was off and projected a much higher vote share for the DPP and KMT candidates they what they really got.    Lets take 台視(TTV).  At 7:15PM it had KMT 285,691(34.65%) DPP 366,214 (44.42%).  But the real result at the end was KMT 32.37% DPP  38.02%.  Around that time it realized their mistake so they stopped updating the KMT and DPP vote and kept on updating the others vote so by 9:45PM it was KMT 285,691(31.28%) DPP 366,214 (40.03%).  So for 2 hours the DPP and KMT vote count did not move at all but all the others did to adjust for the mistake of the initial projections.  Other Pan-Green channels were a similar story.

For Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) all channels raced ahead since it was a high profile race.  The internal models of all channels projected a much closer race than it really was and after racing ahead they had to adjust to the real result.    Pan-Green 三立(SET) numbers show this.  At 8PM it had KMT 540,832 DPP 528,320 but the KMT numbers are already showing the KMT candidate pulling well ahead.  So the 三立(SET) numbers by 8:45PM it was KMT 594,508 DPP 529,824.  So the KMT vote count increase by 54K in 45 minutes but the DPP vote count went up around 1K.  Clearly a sign that they knew they messed up and had to correct.

Looking at the data we can conclude that all these media channels have no real infrastructure for any informal vote count but are just making up numbers based on what they THINK the result will be.




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« Reply #243 on: December 27, 2018, 08:23:31 pm »

Pro-Blue UDN poll on 2020 Prez race  Similar to Pro-Green Taiwan Brain Trust(新台灣國策智庫) poll

KMT Chu blows out DPP Tsai 56-22
DPP Tsai edges out KMT Wu 36-27
KMT Chu defeats DPP Lai 47-32
DPP Lai blows out KMT Wu 53-20

If Ko gets into the race

Ko 45 KMT Chu 30 DPP Tsai 11
Ko 41 KMT Chu 28 DPP Lai 18
Ko 54 KMT Wu 12 DPP Tsai 14
Ko 50 KMT Wu 11 DPP Lai 23

Image Link

I think all these poll for now underestimate Tsai and Wu and overestimate Ko.

Main problem for Tsai is that despite that fact her best shot at winning reelection would to face off against KMT's Wu.  But if it Tsai vs Wu then Ko would have a reason to get into the race.  Just like in 2016 USA it it was Trump vs Sanders then that would give Mike Bloomberg a chance to get into the race.  I think Ko has a real shot at winning the whole thing if it is Ko vs Tsai vs Wu even if Ko is overestimated and Tsai/Wu are underestimated.   
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« Reply #244 on: December 28, 2018, 09:12:42 pm »

It seems the upheaval leading to the DPP loss of the Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)  city assembly speakership has its roots in the vicious DPP mayor primary earlier in the year.  

The DPP primary for mayor came down to two front-runners.  Huang(黃偉哲) who was backed by the powerful New Tide faction (Huang is a former member of the faction and considered a "friend of the faction" and the winner of the primary and went on to win in the general election for mayor
Image Link

and Chen(陳亭妃) who was the leader of the anti-New Tide faction
Image Link

A key surrogate of  Huang(黃偉哲) is city assembly MLA Chiu(邱莉莉) and is the leader of the New Tide faction in the city assembly
Image Link
 
While a key surrogate of Chen(陳亭妃) is the current vice-speaker of the city assembly MLA Guo(郭信良) who is the leader of the anti-New Tide bloc in the city assembly.  Guo(郭信良)  is so close to the unmarried Chen(陳亭妃) that their political enemies in the DPP and KMT have spread rumors that they are having an affair
Image Link

So in the end Huang(黃偉哲) went on the win the DPP primary and the general election.  The DPP lost ground in the city assembly as well in the general election but the balance of power shifted in favor of the New Tide faction even as the DPP and pro-DPP independents seems to have maintained a majority.  Guo(郭信良) had hoped to become speaker and if not at least retain his role as vice-speaker.  The New Tide faction seems to have made a call to capture both the speaker and vice-speaker of the city assembly for itself and railroaded Chiu(邱莉莉) as the DPP nominee for city assembly speaker.

The New Tide calculation was that  it is in theory possible for the DPP anti-New Tide faction led by  Guo(郭信良)  to try to form an alliance with the KMT and its allies.  But in practice the KMT leader of the city assembly Hsieh(謝龍介) was on very bad terms with Chen(陳亭妃)  and Guo(郭信良) where there is still and outsanding lawsuit of slander between them when Hsieh(謝龍介) publicly claimed that  Chen(陳亭妃)  and Guo(郭信良) were a couple.
Image Link

The New Tide faction was further relieved when in a meeting of the KMT caucus Hsieh(謝龍介) denounced Guo(郭信良) as a crook and that the KMT and its allies would have no truck with them.  But it seems that was for show.  In reality Hsieh(謝龍介) made a call to work with Guo(郭信良)'s bloc in order to defeat the DPP.  Guo(郭信良)  was willing to give the KMT the vice-speaker position but Hsieh(謝龍介) turned it down and said it should go to the bloc of KMT allies to make sure they do not defect.

The signal that the grand alliance is on is when as the vote for speaker began and to DPP's shock Guo(郭信良) declared that he his leaving the DPP.  Then to the New Tide faction's shock the KMT and allies voted en mass for Guo(郭信良) along with 3 other pro-Guo(郭信良) DPP MLAs who also quit the party allowing for the grand alliance to defeat Chiu(邱莉莉).  One of the rebel DPP is actually Chen(陳亭妃)'s sister.  A Guo(郭信良)-Hsieh(謝龍介) alliance would be if the Congressional Black Caucus rebelled and joined forces with a Tea Party controlled GOP to defeat the mainstream Democratic party candidate to Speaker of the House.  It was unthinkable until it actually happen.    Guo(郭信良) and Hsieh(謝龍介) who had contact but never face to face to avoid the DPP high command or New Tide faction from figuring out what was going on.  It was a true victory of spy vs spy tactics.

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« Reply #245 on: January 06, 2019, 01:54:24 pm »

Latest Apple Daily poll on 2020 Prez race with all possible candidates looks pretty good for KMT's Chu

KMT Chu                      33.61%
Ko                               13.09%
DPP PM Lai                  12.15%
DPP Prez Tsai               10.16%
KMT ex-Speaker Wang   6.39%
KMT ex-Prez Ma            5.03%
KMT leader Wu             4.92%

Image Link

I think Lai + Tsai represents the core DPP base (22.31%) while those that KMT ex-Speaker Wang and KMT leader Wu could defect to Ko or DPP if Chu is the candidate.  Still overall Chu is looking pretty strong. 
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« Reply #246 on: January 12, 2019, 07:31:59 am »

DPP PM Lai(賴清德) resigns after the budget was passed to take responsibly for the DPP defeat.   It is possible he might challange DPP Prez Tsai in the DPP primary in the Spring.
Image Link

Ironically the new Cabinet will be a "cabinet of losers" with the loser of the New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) race Su(蘇貞昌) (who is a former head of DPP and former PM) as the new PM
Image Link

The new DPM will be Chen(陳其邁) who was the loser of the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) race.
Image Link

It also seems former mayor of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and loser of his bid for re-election Lin(林佳龍) will be the new Secretary of Transportation
Image Link

Prez Tsai and PM Su are long time rivals in the DPP and have a open history of personal animosity.  That she will accept Su as PM seems to indicate that she is determined to win the DPP primary and go on to win re-election.   In many ways people like Su, Chen and Lin are top political talent in the DPP so they coming into the cabinet does make sense even as the optics of "cabinet of losers" seems negative.
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« Reply #247 on: January 18, 2019, 01:20:38 pm »

I looked over the methods on the ROC political blog
https://whogovernstw.org/2018/12/25/yuchenchang4/
that used Ecological Inference on the precinct data between 2014 and 2018 elections for mayors/county magistrates that computes implied vote flows

Image Link

The main problem with the analysis is that it treats most 3rd party candidates in the same bucket as Non-voters since its main goal is try to estimate the Blue-Green direct swing between 2014 and 2018.  I took the raw data and refined it to take into account of all third party votes to get a more clear picture and gives a good idea of how significant 3rd party candidates got their votes.  I will present most of them one county and city at a time. 
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« Reply #248 on: January 18, 2019, 01:31:47 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2019, 11:11:18 am by jaichind »

Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (KMTR18 is the KMT rebel in 2018 and IND18 is the a non-aligned independent in 2018)

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14              24.0   10.9     2.1       0.4         6.4          43.8
KMT14               0.7   21.1     2.2       0.1         0.6          24.7
Non-voters         0.9    1.1      3.0       0.4        26.0         31.4
Total                25.6   33.1     7.3       0.9        33.0


The KMT had dominated this county historically but lost it to proto-DPP in 1981 in a shocking defeat.  After that the local factions had drifted to DPP and the KMT only won once since (in 2005.)    2014 was a DPP wave year just like 2018 is a KMT wave year.    Here the 2014 DPP vote had huge defections to the KMT(10.9) and KMT rebel(2.1) and another 6.4 became non-voters.   Only the flit side the 2014 KMT vote was is core vote and very little of it defected to the DPP (0.7) or became non-voters (0.6) but some went to the KMT rebel (2.2).  One would also have expected that marginal  KMT voters would have not turned out in 2014 but would turn out in 2018.  It seems most of that increased turnout went to the KMT rebel.

So the KMT rebel hurt the KMT in the sense that the marginal KMT voter who still must harbor some dissatisfaction with KMT high command came out to vote mostly for the KMT rebel.  Separately had the KMT rebel not run most of the 2014 DPP voter that voted for the KMT rebel (2.1) most likely would have not voted or perhaps voted KMT.

What killed the DPP was mostly the massive net defection to the KMT (10.9-.7 = 10.2) and a large chunk just choose not to vote (6.4).  This seems to be the reason why the KMT won by a large margin despite the KMT rebel splitting the KMT vote and capturing a good part of the marginal KMT voter that failed to vote in 2014.

As for what this means for 2020, it was an open seat and the the DPP was very divided in 2018 with the burden of anti-incumbency while the KMT candidate was very popular and has cross partisan appeal.  The KMT could perhaps count on the 2014 DPP vote that failed to vote (6.4) not coming out in 2020 either but a good part of the 2014 DPP vote that defected to the KMT (10.9) most likely will swing back to DPP.  Assuming most of the 2018 KMT rebel vote flow back to KMT in 2020 it seems that the KMT and DPP should be evenly matched in 2020 in Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6).
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« Reply #249 on: January 18, 2019, 01:53:14 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2019, 11:09:52 am by jaichind »

Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (IND14 and IND18 is the a non-aligned independents in 2014 and 2018 respectively)

                    DPP18 KMT18 MKT18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14            15.8     4.3       6.5      0.1      2.6             29.3
KMT14             1.6    20.0      8.5      0.1       0.6            30.8
IND14              0.5     0.5       2.9      0.9      0.8              5.6
Non-voters       0.6     0.5       3.5      0.1     29.7            34.4
Total              18.5   25.3     21.4      1.2     33.7

The KMT has historically dominated this deep Blue county and had only lost the county magistrate seat once in 1968 before the the 1980s when the DPP was able to win 3 times in a row as it was able to eat into the KMT Hakka base as well as take advantage of KMT local factional splits.   The KMT by the 2000s had restored order but the factional battle continued.   In 2014 a key KMT factional leader (and ex-county magistrate) ran as a DPP backed independent and took a good part of the KMT base with him to lose narrowly to the KMT candidate who is his old rival.  In 2018 The DPP ran the KMT factional leader's on who clearly does not have the same pull on the KMT base as his father while the KMT incumbent retired on a 2 term limit making this an open seat.  KMT splinter MKT also ran and seem to be the favorite to win before KMT pulled it out

The Ko backed MKT candidate had cross partisan appeal and looked to pick up a large bloc of the 2014 DPP vote.  In the end the 2014 DPP vote had defections to the KMT (4.3) and MKT (6.5)  and lost some to become non-voters (2.6) but kept almost half of its 2014 vote (15.8 ).  It kept enough of the 2014 DPP vote to prevent MKT from winning.  The KMT ran a fairly unknown lightweight as a compromise candidate to balance between different local factions and lost a bunch of votes to MKT (8.5).  Marginal KMT voters that failed to vote in 2014 in the DPP wave did not come out that strongly and mostly went to MKT(3.5).  But the KMT strategy worked.  By keeping the KMT camp outside of MKT unified, losses to MKT was made up by the fact that 2014 DPP defection to MKT was lower than expected.  

As for 2020 it is clear that it really depends on if Ko will run.  If Ko runs then part of the MKT vote could go Ko especially the part that came from the 2014 DPP vote (6.5).  If not most of that will go back to the DPP but the rest will all go KMT.  Just like every election Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) will be very strong for KMT at the national level.
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