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jaichind
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« Reply #250 on: January 20, 2019, 04:50:37 pm »

Keelong City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +8)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (KMTR14 are the 2014 KMT rebels and LEFT14 is the minor Leftist candidate in 2014.)

                    DPP18 KMT18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            29.3     1.1       2.9            33.3
KMT14             0.6   15.3       1.3            17.2
KMTR14           1.6     9.4       0.7            11.7
LEFT14            0.3     0.0       0.2              0.5
Non-voters      1.3      2.1      33.9           37.3
Total             33.1     27.9     39.0

The DPP incumbent had cross-partisan appeal and governed as a moderate.  The KMT candidate was the same as the losing KMT candidate in 2014.  As a result even though most of the 2014 KMT rebels vote went back to the KMT candidate (9.4) but the marginal KMT voter that did not turn out in 2014 only showed up to vote for the KMT candidate in small numbers (2.1).  The popular DPP incumbent also suffered little net defection to the KMT candidate (1.1 vs 0.6) and even picked up some of the 2014 KMT rebel vote (1.6).  And lastly despite the poor national environment for the DPP a small amount of the 2014 DPP vote became non-voters(2.9).

2014 and 2018 were the first time the KMT lost 2 elections in a row since the early 1960s and this seems to indicate that the dominance of the KMT here is not what it used to be and 2020 lead for the Pan-Blue forces here will be less than what one would normally expect.  It is true the the popular DPP incumbent has a lot to do with it and the strong KMT performance in city assembly elections bode well for the KMT in 2020.  Still these trends show that this city clearly is trending DPP unless the 2020 KMT national campaign can do something to get the marginal KMT voter that did not show in 2014 and 2018 to turn out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #251 on: January 21, 2019, 10:52:56 am »

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (DPPR18 are the 2018 DPP/TSU rebels and IND14 are the two Independent candidates (one with a pan-Blue background and one with a pan-Green background which I grouped together since the pan-Blue background independent ran a fairly moderate campaign while the pan-Green background independent ran a fairly strong anti-DPP campaign.)

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14           20.7     0.6     5.1         10.0     10.4           46.8
KMT14            0.5   15.6     0.1           1.0       0.3           17.5
Non-voters      2.3     3.9     0.2           1.9     27.4           35.7
Total             23.5    20.1    5.4          12.9     38.1

The DPP candidate is a moderate and have a pretty good image but had to go through a vicious DPP primary in this open seat.  The 2014 election was DPP wave election with a DPP superstar Lai (who later became PM) as its candidate so the DPP was always going to lose ground regardless.  The KMT candidate is the son of a former Tainan County magistrate but is seen as a lightweight without real local roots.   The DPP candidate achieved almost no direct net swing to the KMT (0.6 vs 0.5) but lost a lot of ground to the DPP rebels (5.1) and the two independents (10.0) while a good chunk of the 2014 DPP surge dissipated into non-voters(10.4).  The KMT candidate got medium size boost from marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 (3.9) but so did the DPP candidate from from what is most likely non-New Tide DPP voters (2.3) as 2014 DPP candidate Lai was in the New Tide faction.  The key in this race was how much of the anti-DPP energy was absorbed by the two independent candidates one of which (ironic the one with the pan-Green background one) ran on a very strong anti-DPP platform.

These numbers show that had KMT ran a stronger candidate or campaign AND the two independents did not run then enough of the anti-DPP vote that went to the independents might have gone KMT and given them a victory, as improbable as that  seems when the election season started.  The mass defections of the 2014 DPP vote to DPP rebels, independents and non-voters shows the depth latent anti-DPP anti-incumbency feeling as well as the wound of the viscous DPP primary campaign.  DPP's loss of the city county speaker seat in Dec is another sign of the ongoing DPP civil war between the New Tide and anti-New Tide factions.  All of this bodes ill for DPP in 2020 which could unexpectedly lose a lot of ground to a KMT that can get its act together (which of course is a big if.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #252 on: January 22, 2019, 09:07:11 pm »

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +5)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (DPPR14 is the 2014 DPP rebel, KMTR14 i the 2014 KMT rebel, IND14 is the 2014 independent while NPA18 is the 2018 NPA candidate, KO18 is the pro-Ko independent and IND18 is the 2018 independent)  

                    DPP18 KMT18 NPA18 KO18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14           20.8      0.7     1.2       0.3     0.1          0.6        23.7
KMT14            1.7    16.0     5.0       0.2     0.1           0.4        23.4
DPPR14          7.0       0.7    4.2        0.3     0.0          0.3        12.5
KMTR14         0.4       0.3     0.7       0.0     0.0           0.2         1.6
IND14            0.1      0.0     0.3        0.0     0.1          0.1         0.6
Non-Voters     1.8       0.2    1.6        0.3     0.1         34.1       38.1
Total             31.8     17.9  13.0        1.1    0.4          35.7

The DPP incumbent defeated the sitting KMT mayor in 2014 in a shock DPP wave victory where the DPP rebel candidate seems to have also eaten into the KMT vote.  He went on to govern as a moderate and was able to build bridges to the KMT base.  This time around the KMT ran its 2014 sitting mayor which failed to create a new image for the KMT.  Making it worse for the KMT splinter faction and DPP ally NPA broke with the DPP and ran its leader as well. The DPP candidate actually had a net gain from the KMT relative to 2014 (1.6 vs 0.7).   The KMT failed to pick up marginal KMT voters  that failed to vote in 2014 (0.2) and any such marginal KMT voter actually went to the NPA candidate (1.6).  Part of the  2014 DPP rebel vote  went back to the DPP (7.0) but the part that was the Pan-Blue vote that voted the 2014 DPP rebel actually mostly went to NPA (4.2) vs KMT (0.7). The national tide against the DPP did not lead to the loss of the 2014 DPP vote to the non-voters in large numbers (0.6) due to the popularity of the DPP incumbent.  As a result the DPP incumbent won nearly 50% of the vote and decisively defeated the KMT as the anti-DPP vote was split between the KMT and NPA.  This is the worst ever defeat of the KMT every in the mayor race here.  

As for 2020, after the elections NPA merged back into the KMT so in theory the KMT can turn the tables on the DPP.  Still the KMT allowing the DPP candidate to win almost 50% of the vote here in a 3 way race shows that this city is trending DPP and unless the KMT can come up with a slate of candidates to appeal to this urban liberal progressive fairly high tech city the trend toward the DPP might continue despite historical KMT strength here.  
« Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 07:50:14 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #253 on: January 23, 2019, 07:42:16 am »

Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (KMTR14 is the 2014 KMT rebel, KMTR18 is the 2018 KMT rebel and LEFT18 is the 2018 Left-Progressive independent candidate)

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 LEFT18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            26.0     0.4     0.2         0.6         4.1           31.3
KMT14             4.3    21.6    2.7         0.1         0.8           29.5
KMTR14           0.1     0.3     0.1         0.0         0.1            0.6
Non-voters       1.4     1.3     0.2         0.3       35.3           38.5
Total              31.8    23.6    3.2         1.0        40.3

In the 2014 DPP wave the DPP candidate unexpectedly defeated the sitting KMT mayor in a shock upset.  Since taking DPP incumbent was able to build bridges with various local KMT voting blocs and was in a strong position to win re-election.  The KMT high command tried to get its 2014 candidate to re-run for his seat but he declined seeing the race as unwinnable.  The KMT can a second tier candidate which merely provoked his primary opponent to run as a KMT rebel.  The DPP incumbent was able to achieve a large net swing from the KMT relative to 2014 (4.3 vs 0.4) but due to the poor national environment dd lose a good chunk of the 2014 DPP vote to non-voters.  The relative weakness KMT candidate mean that a fairly small section of the marginal KMT voter that did not vote in 2014 can out for the KMT candidate (1.3) while the DPP candidate made similar gains with 2014 non-voters (1.4).  Still looking at these results the 2014 KMT sitting mayor must be kicking himself for not running give how large of the 2014 DPP vote became non-voters.  Had he run he could have potentially limited the net swing relative to 2014 to the DPP and if the KMT rebel not run he could have fought the DPP incumbent to a neck to neck race.

As for 2020 the KMT did fairly well in the city assembly which seems to imply the DPP incumbent's victory is more personal.  If the KMT slate of candidates in 2020 are from the first tier  one should expect that they can claw back some of the 2014 KMT vote that went DPP this time and assuming the 2014 DPP surge which went back to non-voters stay that way the city might trend somewhat to the DPP but the KMT should have a distinct edge.   This is a good deal better of what the KMT feared earlier in 2018 when it looked like the DPP was going to win in a landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #254 on: January 23, 2019, 12:07:15 pm »

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +10)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (DPPR18 is the 2018 DPP rebel (Lin facton), KMTR18 is the 2018 KMT rebel, 2014IND is the 2014 independent)

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 KMTR18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            23.4     1.2      8.3        0.1       11.9            44.9
KMT14             6.4    13.5      2.8        0.8         0.8           24.3
IND14             0.8      0.4      0.3        0.0         0.5             2.0
Non-voters      3.3       4.6     0.5        0.2        20.3           28.9
Total              33.9    19.7    11.9        1.1        33.5

Historically the KMT dominated this county as the power Huang and Lin factions are aligned with KMT.  The KMT only lost the county magistrate seats in 1954 but after that was able to dominate with its alliance with local factions.  By the mid 1990s the DPP had grown to a point to make the county competitive and in 2001 the Lin faction defected to DPP and the Lin faction pretty much took over the DPP and making this county one of the most pro-DPP county.  In 2014 in a DPP wave election the DPP Lin faction based incumbent defeated her Huang faction KMT candidate by a large margin.

In 2018 this seat was a open seat and the DPP primary was pretty vicious where one bloc of the Lin faction mostly subsumed itself into DPP and backed a DPP candidate without a Lin faction background.  A rebel Lin faction was defeated in the DPP primary but ran a DPP rebel candidate with tactic support from the Lin faction DPP incumbent.    The KMT with their main Huang faction leaders mostly giving up on winning at the county level ran a tier two candidate without a Huang faction background.  As a result there were talks that the some of the Huang faction vote would defect to the DPP rebel in a Huang-Rebel Lin alliance to deal with the now powerful DPP while most of the Lin faction vote stayed loyal to DPP.  When the DPP candidate won by a large margin with the KMT candidate doing poorly it seems that narrative we true.   But looking at the swings it seems the story is a good deal more complex.

It seems a good part of the 2014 DPP vote were Lin faction voters that defected to the DPP Lin faction rebel(8.3).  Some of the Lin faction vote also became non-voters in a anti-DPP year where a large amount of the 2014 DPP vote became non-voters(11.5).  At the same time the 2014 KMT vote which in large part is the Huang faction vote also split.  The DPP achieved large net swing against the KMT relative to 2014 (6.4 vs 1.2) mostly because the anti-Lin Huang faction vote who are put off by the second tier and non-Huang faction KMT candidate defected to the DPP.  Some of the 2014 KMT vote did defect to the DPP Lin faction rebel that it was less then what one would think it is (2.8.)  The KMT did win some marginal KMT voters (most non-Huang) from 2014 Non-voters (4.6) but the DPP candidate without Lin faction background also gained from marginal anti-Lin DPP voters that now turned out from 2014 non-voters(3.3).    There large number of shifts created a DPP majority despite a strong DPP rebel performance that ate into the 2014 DPP vote.

As for 2020, this set of churn gives the KMT a chance to over-perform.  These shifts show that the DPP is vulnerable to losing a large chunk of the Lin faction vote.  The Lin rebel bloc seems open to working with the KMT.  The losing DPP rebel Lin faction candidate actually joined the KMT administration in Kaohsiung City.    If the KMT can get the Huang faction to mobilize for the KMT (the results in the county assembly vote showed that the Huang faction vote still loyally voted KMT at the county assembly level even as some defected to DPP) and somehow get the Lin rebel faction to ally with the KMT then the KMT could challenge the DPP domination here.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 11:06:32 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #255 on: January 24, 2019, 09:41:27 am »

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +3)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 is the 2018 KMT rebel from Hsiao faction, IND18 is the 2018 independent, DPPR14 is the 2014 DPP rebel, LEFT14 is the 2014 Leftist candidate, and IND14
 is the 2014 independent candidate.)  
 
                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 IND18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            24.4    1.2       4.0         0.3      6.0           35.9
KMT14             0.9   25.2      5.0          0.1     0.6            31.8
DPPR14           0.2     0.0       0.0         0.0      0.1             0.3
LEFT14            0.4     0.1       0.1         0.1      0.6             1.3
IND14              0.1    0.1       0.1         0.0      0.2             0.5
Non-voters       0.5    0.9       2.8         0.4     25.6           30.2
Total              26.5  27.5      12.0         0.9    33.1

The 2014 DPP winner of an open seat was not a very strong candidate and the 2014 KMT loser was actually very strong but the DPP won because it was a wave year.  The DPP incumbent was not popular and was expected to lose re-election especially after the KMT decided to bring back their ex-mayor that was term limited out in 2014 as their candidate.   Then things went sideways for the KMT.  The KMT ex-mayor candidate was fairly hostile to the pro-KMT Hsaio faction.  The prospect of an anti-Hsaio faction mayor drove the Hsiao faction leader to run as a KMT rebel.   Due to the anti-DPP wave the DPP candidate clearly lost a bunch of 2014 DPP votes to non-voters(6.0).  Due to the KMT rebel the net DPP to KMT swing was tinty (1.2 vs 0.9) as the KMT rebel took in a lot of the 2014 DPP vote that was negative on the DPP (4.9).  Also the KMT rebel also took in some marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 (2.8 ) which was more that that turned out for the KMT candidate (0.9).  The KMT candidate also lost some of the 2014 KMT vote to the KMT rebel (5.0).  The DPP still lost despite this because the DPP losses to the KMT rebel and non-voters were larger than on would expect given the 2014 DPP wave was not as strong here due to the relative weakness of the DPP candidate.  

As for prospects for 2020 the KMT needs to figure out how to reconcile the Hsiao faction and get them to unite behind the KMT effort here in 2020.  The anti-Hsiao faction part of the KMT stood aside and let a pro-DPP speaker to be elected in the city assembly rather than the Hsiao faction bloc getting the speaker seat.  So the split in the KMT here is quite large and unless they can unite the KMT will still be at a disadvantage here in 2020 since at the national level this city tend to lean DPP anyway.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 01:19:22 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #256 on: January 25, 2019, 07:29:43 am »

Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 are the 3 2018 KMT rebels and IND18 are the 2 2018 independents) 

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 IND18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14             16.1    3.7      4.6        1.2        9.9           35.5
KMT14             2.1    16.7     9.1         0.2       0.5           28.6
Non-voters       1.9     3.4      1.5        0.7      28.5           36.0
Total              20.1    23.8    15.2        2.1     38.9

In the 2014 DPP wave election the DPP won by an unexpected large margin in the race for an open seat.  The wave in 2018 was clearly for the KMT as the large number of retired public sector workers here are very steamed at the DPP for public sector pension reform.  The KMT can its old incumbent that was term limited out in 2014.  The prospect of the DPP being beaten and most likely badly and the KMT high command bring back the old country magistrate which blocks the progress of emerging KMT politicians provoked a massive KMT rebellion with 3 separate KMT rebels  plus 2 other independents to all try cash in on the anti-DPP wave.  As a result the net KMT swing from DPP relative to 2014 was small (3.7 vs 2.1) but the DPP lost a large bloc of votes to the KMT rebels (4.6) and of course to non-voters (9.9) as angry 2014 DPP voters stayed home or defected mostly to KMT rebels.  The KMT candidate did benefit from marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 to come out for him (3.4).  All in all even though the KMT candidate lost a large chunk of the 2014 KMT vote to KMT rebels (9.1) the massive defections from the 2014 DPP vote to the KMT candidate, KMT rebels and non-voters was able to carry the KMT candidate to victory.

As for 2020 it seems that as long as the KMT could unite the various KMT factions who opportunistically defied KMT high command to try to cash in on the anti-DPP wave separately then the KMT could do very well in this county which in the last couple of cycles were trending KMT anyway as the anti-DPP anger does not seem will dissipate anywhere close to enough to make this county competitive for DPP in 2020.   
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« Reply #257 on: January 25, 2019, 07:43:05 am »

Latest TVBS poll on 2020 Prez poll



Key one to focus on is

Ko             35
Chu(KMT)  30
Tsai(DPP)   15

With Tsai determined to run re-election I doubt that Lai would run so there is not much point in polling him but with Lai as DPP candidate it would be which I think is useful as how Lai polls today will most likely how Tsai will poll once she formally gets re-nominated.

Ko             33
Chu(KMT)  29
Lai(DPP)    21

It seems for now if Ko runs then it will be very close between Ko and Chu.  One has to assume that in such a race the DPP will pull out all the cards at the end of the campaign to get the DPP base to come back and the KMT will do the same and the race will look something like

Ko             30
Chu(KMT)   31
Tsai(DPP)   25

I get the felling that without an organization around Ko he will end up doing worse than this.    Ko seems to be playing his cards close to his chest on if he will run and most likely decided in June.  He has to be sure that his lead is so large that it can overcome the lack of a party organization for GOTV operations.
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« Reply #258 on: January 26, 2019, 09:52:26 am »

Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 is the 2018 KMT rebel and IND18 is the 2018 independent)  

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 IND18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            22.0     4.8      0.1        0.3       2.9           30.1
KMT14             1.1    32.4     1.4         0.2       0.8           35.9
Non-voters       1.5      2.1     0.2        0.3      29.9           34.0
Total              24.6    39.3     1.7         0.8      33.6

2014 saw a pro-DPP wave and both the KMT incumbent and DPP candidate were pretty strong candidates in a narrow (for a deep blue county) victory for KMT.  This time around it is an open seat and the KMT candidate faced a rival KMT faction challenge in the form of a KMT rebel.  But this time the KMT wave was pretty strong here and the DPP candidate could avoid losing a significant swing to the KMT candidate relative to 2014 (4.8 to 1.1) even as the strong nature of the DPP candidate limited the loss of the 2014 DPP vote to non-voters(2.9.)  All in all the KMT lost fairly small part of 2014 KMT vote to the KMT rebel (1.4) which ensured an unexpectedly large KMT victory.  The DPP candidate should still get a lot of credit to making the county magistrate race competitive in 2009 and 2014.  The last time the proto-DPP was competitive here was for a couple of cycles in the 1960s and beyond that it is always KMT by a landslide.

As for 2020 it seems the the KMT factions were able to put aside their differences and did not vote in any significant numbers for the KMT rebel in 2018 which means this should be a strong KMT county in 2020.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 11:04:59 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #259 on: January 27, 2019, 08:44:10 am »

2 Legislative by-elections took place as a result of MPs that resigned as part of the local elections of 2018.  They are

Deep Green Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district (Green +7) and  Taichung City(臺中市) 5th district (Blue +4).

Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district was a disastrous result for the pro-Ko forces as the pro-Ko candidate did poorly which shows the pro-Ko vote is not transferable.  The DPP ran a strong candidate to ensure they do not lose this seat while the KMT and pro-KO candidate are second tier candidates.

DPP        47.76%
KMT       39.03%
pro-Ko    11.99%
pro-NPP    1.11%
Ind.          0.11%

Looking at precinct results it seems that the Green vote consolidated around the DPP candidate this time and the pro-KO candidate if anything took more votes from the KMT candidate.   Assuming the pro-Ko candidate took equally from both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps the Green-Blue gap is around 10% which in Green+7 district implies a national Blue-Green split of 52/48.


Taichung City(臺中市) 5th district saw the KMT run a solid candidate while the DPP candidate was a second tier candidate.  The result was

KMT        57.78%
DPP        38.62%
Pro-PFP    3.42%
Ind.         0.18%

The Blue-Green lead was over 22% which in a Blue+4 district implies a national Blue/Green split of 57/43.

I think given the differences in candidate quality and the fact that Central Taiwan Province is drifting Blue last election while Northern Urban Taiwan Province is drifting Green the true Blue/Green national split is somewhere in the middle, something like 55/45 which would be consistent with recently polling.

The fact that the DPP was able to win Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district by a significant margin implies that DPP has not collapsed as a result of the 2018 local election anti-DPP wave and that Tsai for sure will certainly be the DPP candidate for Prez in 2020.
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« Reply #260 on: January 27, 2019, 02:58:19 pm »

Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR14 was the 2014 KMT rebel, TSU14 was the 2014 ex-TSU independent, DPPR18 was the 2018 DPP rebel, KMTR18 was the 2018 KMT rebel, and TSU18 was the same 2014 ex-TSU independent running again with support from Ko.)

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 KMTR18 TSU18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14           23.8      7.9      0.5        0.0      0.5           5.3         38.0
KMT14            1.4    23.4      0.1         0.1      0.2           2.8        28.0
KMTR14          0.0      0.4      0.0         0.5      0.0           0.1          1.0
TSU14            0.1      0.5       0.0        0.0      2.6           0.5          3.7
Non-voters      2.1      4.4      0.1         0.1      0.1         22.4        29.2
Total             27.4    36.6      0.7         0.7      3.4         31.1

In 2014 DPP won by a larger than expected margin in an open seat election in a pro-DPP wave election.  The 2014 DPP winner and incumbent went on to have a mediocre administration and was vulnerable in a 2018 election that has any sign of an anti-DPP wave.  It turned out that 2018 saw a large anti-DPP wave and the KMT candidate won a large net swing from the DPP relative to 2014 (7.9 vs 1.4).  The DPP also lost a good chunk of its 2014 vote to non-voters (5.3).  In addition marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 came out to vote in 2018 for the KMT candidate (4.4) to add up to larger than expected KMT victory over the DPP incumbent.

As for 2020 the large scale of DPP defection to the KMT and non-voters plus the return of marginal KMT voters are a fairly bad sign for the DPP.  This county historically has been fairly elastic at the local level but somewhat less elastic at the national level.  That is about the only saving grace for DPP which for sure will face a significant swing against it here but perhaps a smaller scale than these numbers suggest.
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« Reply #261 on: January 27, 2019, 04:29:15 pm »

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 was the 2018 KMT rebel)

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14             32.5    5.6      0.2          6.7           45.0
KMT14              4.7  20.8      0.6           0.4          26.5
Non-voters        1.0    2.2      0.6         24.7          28.5
Total               38.2  28.6      1.4         31.8

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8) is similar to Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) in the sense that it was always dominated by the KMT but suddenly in 1981 both counties flipped to the opposition and since then the DPP or proto-DPP has dominated the county.  The KMT have not won a county magistrate race here since 1993 in a controversial election with heavy KMT negative campaigning against the DPP incumbent Su (and now PM as well as and long time rival of Tsai).  Both Prez Tsai and PM Su are from this county which adds to the DPP strength here.

In 2014 as a part of the DPP wave the DPP won the open seat here in a landslide.  The DPP winner went on to have a fairly strong administration and seems that it will win easily against a fairly lackluster KMT candidate.  The result involved a lot of vote swaps between the 2014 KMT and 2014 DPP vote with a slight net advantage to the KMT (5.6 to 4.7).  The 2014 DPP vote shift to KMT is clear (5.6) as part of the anti-DPP wave.  The 2014 KMT vote shift  to DPP (4.7) is less clear.  Most likely they are local KMT factional voters that shifted to the DPP incumbent as part of deals made between the DPP and the local KMT factions especially given the fact the fairly lackluster KMT candidate was not expected to win.  The strong Pan-Blue bloc performance in the county assembly seems to imply this sort of ticket splitting.   The 2014 DPP vote clearly lost at lot of ground to non-voters (6.7) as the 2014 DPP wave shifts to an anti-DPP wave in 2018.  The KMT in 2018 closed the gap but mostly did not come close to dislodging the DPP due partly to the KMT rebel that split the vote and the fact that it failed to mobilize KMT marginal votes that did not vote to come out to vote in 2018(only 2.2). 

As for 2020 it is clear that DPP will lose a lot of its edge here but it being Tsai's come county the DPP lead here should still be significant. 
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« Reply #262 on: January 28, 2019, 11:25:27 am »

Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(DPPR18 was the 2018 DPP rebel and IND14 was the 2018 independent)  

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 IND18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14             26.5     3.4      1.5       0.6       9.3           41.3
KMT14              0.7    29.6     0.3       0.3       0.3           31.2
Non-voters        1.9     4.3      0.2       0.2      21.1          27.7
Total               29.1   37.3      2.0       1.1      30.7

This rural county has historically been dominated by the KMT but the DPP started being competitive here at the national level in the 1990s.  The powerful pro-KMT Chang faction still kept the KMT in charge and was only overthrown in 2005 when the KMT lost the county magistrate seat for the first time ever.  In 2014 the KMT ran the sister of the Chang faction leader who was a very strong candidate but she was defeated in the 2014 DPP wave in the race for an open seat.  The DPP winner went on to alienate certain DPP factions but was expected to win re-election.

The KMT ran the same strong candidate as 2014  and she kept the race close.  In the end she won by a large margin as the 2014 DPP vote splintered  with a very large bloc (9.3) going to non-voters in a anti-DPP wave year.  The KMT candidate also got a solid net swing relative to the 2014 DPP vote  (3.4 vs 0.7) and gained some marginal KMT voters that did not vote in the 2014 DPP wave year but came out to vote this time (4.3)  The DPP rebel did not help but the scale of the KMT victory made it  irreverent to the result.

As for 2020 it is not clear that the power of the pro-KMT Chang  faction will be out in force.  Some of the DPP demobilization relative to 2014 was not part of the anti-DPP wave but anger by local DPP factions against the DPP incumbent.  Most likely some of the 2014 DPP vote that went to non-voters(9.3) will come back in 2020 for DPP.  If the KMT Chang faction goes all out in 2020 then the KMT could potentially fight the DPP to a draw.  If not the DPP should have a small edge here now the the DPP incumbent has been moved from the scene.
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« Reply #263 on: February 04, 2019, 10:46:38 am »

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 was the 2018 KMT rebel)  

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14            27.2     5.6       0.2         7.5           40.5
KMT14             0.4    29.3       0.4        0.3           30.4
Non-voters       0.5     2.5       0.1       26.0           29.1
Total              28.1   37.4       0.7        33.8

This battleground city has been historically dominated by the KMT until the urban parts of it it became competitive in the late 1960s and the rural parts became competitive in the late 1990s.  The local pro-KMT Red and Black factions had been powerful but have declined over the years.  The 2014 DPP wave saw the DPP win by a large margin as the local KMT faction vote defected.

The DPP incumbent was seen as effective and should have been a strong candidate for re-election.  The KMT put forward a long time MP that is strong in the urban parts of the city but was able to united the rural KMT factions behind her campaign.  The anti-DPP wave saw the  2014 DPP vote lose a large numbers to non-voters (7.5) and the KMT was able to generate large net swing vs the 2014 DPP vote (5.6 vs 0.4).  Some marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 turned out to vote for the KMT (2.5) but not by massive numbers.  It seems that pattern indicates that the large scale KMT  defeat in 2014 was due to massive ticket splitting by KMT local faction voters most of whom came back this year.  It also shows that the DPP incumbent being fairly popular did prevent a even larger surge by marginal KMT candidates to come out to vote.

As for 2020 the 2014 votes lost most likely will be hard to recover.  If the KMT national candidate and consolidate the KMT urban vote here as well as the local factional vote in rural areas the KMT should have a district advantage.    An extra bonus for the KMT is if they can fuel the anti-DPP anger at the national level to get more marginal KMT voters that failed to vote in 2014 and 2018 to come out.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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