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Author Topic: UK local by-elections, 2018  (Read 6657 times)
ObserverIE
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« on: January 04, 2018, 10:01:55 am »

Another year, another Holy Word here

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab 59.8 (+6.4)
Con 32.2 (-14.4)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)
Green 1.5 (+1.5)

Lab gain Borehamwood Cowley Hill from Con
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 11:26:27 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Leftbehind
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2018, 08:33:32 pm »

Cheers to your & Andrew's work then.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2018, 11:27:31 pm »

Cheers to your & Andrew's work then.

It's Andrew who does the legwork; I just plug numbers into a spreadsheet.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2018, 11:41:39 am »

Cheers to your & Andrew's work then.

It's Andrew who does the legwork; I just plug numbers into a spreadsheet.

Even if Andrew's is 90% of the work, your effort recording the year's results should be acknowledged.

Anyway, that's a pretty decisive win for Labour considering the crowded field (who seem to have made little impact).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2018, 07:02:18 pm »

Next installment of the Holy Word here.

Lancashire, Wyre Rural Central

Con 60.0 (-10.9)
Lab 31.8 (+13.9)
Green 8.2 (-3.0)

Wyre, Preesall

Con 55.3 (-12.2)
Lab 44.7 (+12.2)

Kent, Birchington and Rural

Con 56.6 (+4.8)
Lab 19.1 (+3.7)
Lib Dem 12.5 (+1.1)
UKIP 8.0 (-7.4)
Green 3.8 (-2.2)

Thanet, Thanet Villages

Con 49.3 (+21.1)
Lib Dem 24.9 (+24.9)
Lab 16.4 (+4.1)
Green 5.3 (-9.1)
Ind 4.1 (-15.8)

« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 07:07:47 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2018, 07:32:38 pm »

The Holy Word At Home here.

Rochford, Downhall and Rawreth

Lib Dem 77.0 (+19.4)
Con 23.0 (+5.8)

Bournemouth, Throop and Muscliff

Ind Wilson 31.3
Con 30.0 (-2.4)
Lab 23.6 (+10.9)
Ind Lucas 6.9
Lib Dem 6.3 (+6.3)
Green 1.9 (-9.4)

Bolton, Hulton

Con 49.4 (+16.7)
Lab 40.1 (+3.1)
UKIP 6.5 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 2.3 (-0.2)
Green 1.8 (-1.5)

Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope

Con 53.0 (+5.2)
Lab 24.8 (+4.0)
Lib Dem 22.2 (+3.6)

Ind hold Throop and Muscliff
Con gain Hulton from Lab
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 05:39:32 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Leftbehind
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2018, 06:23:56 am »

Quote
This by-election also looks difficult for Labour, whose administration in Bolton has a knack for attracting bad publicity. There will be more on that subject in a future edition of Andrew’s Previews; this piece is already quite long enough. If the Tories can unwind the UKIP vote and capitalise on opposition to the Hulton Park development, then this could be a good opportunity for the first Conservative gain of 2018.
...and so they did. Labour would be lucky to have held this regardless of local circumstances, but it couldn't be helped by the nature of the vacancy.

Edit: With the exception of the non-appearance in Rochford, those are some deceptively strong results for Labour that appear weak.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 02:50:01 pm by Leftbehind »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2018, 05:09:03 pm »

A Singular Syllable here.

Isle of Wight, Central Wight

Con 49.7 (-25.5)
Lib Dem 26.0 (+26.0)
Green 13.0 (-5.9)
Lab 9.2 (+3.3)
UKIP 2.2 (+2.2)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 09:45:43 am by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2018, 06:44:20 pm »

This week's Holy Word.

Sunderland, Pallion

Lib Dem 53.9 (+49.5)
Lab 34.8 (-15.9)
Con 5.4 (-7.2)
UKIP 4.2 (-24.7)
Green 1.7 (-1.7)

Cornwall, Falmouth Smithick

Lab 60.2 (+19.9)
Con 17.2 (-7.2)
Lib Dem 17.2 (-1.7)
Green 5.3 (-11.1)

Lib Dem gain Pallion from Lab
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 06:57:59 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2018, 05:30:26 pm »

A game of two halves, those two!
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2018, 07:14:14 pm »

This week's Holy Word is here.

Eden, Hartside

Con 52.9 (-3.8)
Ind 29.6 (-13.7)
Green 17.5 (+17.5)

South Staffordshire, Codsall South

Con 78.8
Lab 13.2
Green 8.0

East Staffordshire, Stretton (changes in italics since Sep 2017 by-election)

Con 42.5 (-6.3) (-4.7)
Ind 34.8 (+34.8) (+6.6)
Lab 19.3 (+0.5) (+0.1)
UKIP 2.6 (-21.5) (-0.6)
Lib Dem 0.8 (+0.8) (-1.4)

Brighton and Hove, East Brighton (changes in italics since Sep 2016 by-election)

Lab 67.0 (+18.9) (+9.5)
Con 17.1 (-5.9) (-2.8)
Green 11.9 (-4.7) (+0.8)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-4.4) (-0.5)

Staffordshire, Codsall

Con 67.6 (-7.5)
Green 17.4 (+6.7)
Lab 15.0 (+0.8)

Weymouth and Portland, Tophill East

Con 46.9 (+16.7)
Lab 45.9 (+23.0)
Green 7.3 (-5.3)

Weymouth and Portland, Tophill West

Con 53.8 (+13.7)
Lab 37.5 (-22.4)
Green 8.6 (+8.6)

Con hold Codsall South
Con gain Tophill East from Ind
Con hold Tophill West
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 10:13:15 am by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2018, 04:33:11 pm »

That's a frustrating pair of results in Dorset.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2018, 06:54:57 pm »

Holy Paragraph here.

West Oxfordshire, Carterton South

Con 62.9 (+1.4)
Lib Dem 23.7 (+17.7)
Lab 13.5 (+2.0)

Halton, Halton Castle

Lab 70.3 (-5.7)
Ind 17.9 (+9.5)
Con 11.8 (+11.8)

York, Holgate

Lab 50.0 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 32.3 (+15.0)
Con 11.0 (-12.9)
Green 6.7 (-13.3)

North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor

Lab 48.9 (-8.8)
Con 39.2 (+21.1)
Lib Dem 11.8 (+11.8)

North Norfolk, Worstead

Lib Dem 72.7 (+39.4)
Con 16.9 (-24.9)
Lab 10.4 (-1.9)

Tendring, St Pauls (changes in italics since May 2016 by-election)

Con 39.5 (+8.5) (+12.0)
Ind Andrews 16.7
Ind Hones 14.0 (-7.9)
Lab 11.9 (+11.9) (-1.2)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+8.3) (+8.3)
UKIP 7.4 (-29.1) (-30.1)
Green 2.1 (+2.1) (+2.1)

Epsom and Ewell, Ruxley

Residents 37.2 (-5.0)
Con 31.8 (-2.6)
Lab 24.7 (+11.0)
Lib Dem 6.3 (-3.3)

Teignbridge, Chudleigh (changes in italics since Dec 2016 by-election)

Lib Dem 41.0 (+27.0) (-10.5)
Con 40.3 (+6.2) (+4.7)
Lab 18.7 (+2.2) (+12.6)

Falkirk, Bonnybridge and Larbert

SNP 38.6 (+4.9)
Con 32.4 (+8.1)
Lab 24.2 (+8.5)
Green 3.7 (-0.1)
UKIP 1.0 (+1.0)

SNP
1295
1300
1354
1619
Con
1088
1096
1115
1280
Lab
813
821
858
Green
124
129
UKIP
35

Teignbridge, Dawlish Central and North East

Lib Dem 70.6 (+46.7)
Con 29.4 (-)

East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster

Con 55.6
Lib Dem 22.2
Lab 17.2
Green 3.0
UKIP 2.0

Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers

Con 56.6 (-3.5)
Lab 22.3 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 13.5 (+2.3)
UKIP 4.4 (-5.5)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)

Lancashire, Morecambe North

Con 49.0 (-14.2)
Lib Dem 29.7 (+21.6)
Lab 21.3 (-0.7)

Doncaster, Armthorpe

Lab 75.4 (+34.9)
Ind 24.6

Lib Dem gain Worstead from Con
Con gain St Pauls from Ind elected as UKIP
Lib Dem gain Chudleigh from Con
SNP hold Bonnybridge and Larbert
Lib Dem gain Dawlish Central and North East from Con
Con hold Higham Ferrers Lancaster
« Last Edit: February 16, 2018, 11:11:00 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Leftbehind
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« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2018, 01:53:25 pm »

Despite the deluge there wasn't much to get hopeful about from Labour's perspective, with Labour holding all four seats where they're competitive (with three retained comfortably and one much less so).    
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2018, 08:48:31 pm »

Holy Word (incorporating a Flying Circus) here.

Boston, Old Leake and Wrangle

Con 74.2 (+22.8)
Lab 17.0 (+17.0)
UKIP 6.9 (-41.7)
Blue Rev 1.8 (+1.8)

West Somerset, Minehead South

Lib Dem 43.2 (+43.2)
Con 39.8 (+3.3)
Lab 17.1 (-1.3)

Torfaen, Trevethin

Lab 50.9 (-2.7)
Ind Parker 30.8
Ind Wildgust 15.1
Green 3.3 (+3.3)

North Kesteven, Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh's

Con 57.8
Lincs Ind 35.6
Lib Dem 6.6

Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak and Bury Green

Con 59.6 (-5.5)
Lib Dem 20.7 (+14.8)
Lab 16.8 (-0.9)
Green 3.0 (+3.0)

Arun, Marine

Lib Dem 32.7 (+32.7)
Lab 26.7 (+7.3)
Con 25.6 (-0.7)
Ind 14.9

West Dorset, Bridport North

Con 36.0 (+1.7)
Lib Dem 30.0 (-1.2)
Lab 23.0 (+9.3)
Green 11.0 (-9.9)

Dorset, Bridport

Con 39.6 (-)
Lib Dem 34.6 (-2.2)
Lab 16.5 (+4.0)
Green 9.3 (-1.8)

Chichester, Fishbourne

Lib Dem 54.6 (+3.3)
Con 34.9 (-2.3)
Lab 10.5 (+10.5)

Lichfield, Stowe

Con 44.8 (-6.1)
Lab 26.1 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 19.0 (+19.0)
Something New 5.2 (+5.2)
Green 4.9 (-15.8)

Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire

Con 35.7 (-6.4)
Ind Penman 29.7
SNP 19.8 (-2.4)
Ind Gunn 6.3 (-3.5)
Lab 3.8 (+0.1)
Lib Dem 2.7 (-0.6)
Green 2.0 (-1.0)

Con
1247
1251
1262
1276
1307
1342
Ind P
1040
1049
1080
1125
1231
1523
SNP
691
717
729
758
797
Ind G
219
226
238
249
Lab
134
144
158
Lib Dem
95
103
Green
70

Lib Dem gain Minehead South from UKIP elected as Ind
Con gain Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh's from Ind
Lib Dem gain Marine from Con
Con gain Bridport North from Lib Dem
Con gain Bridport from Lib Dem
Ind Penman gain Selkirkshire from Con
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 11:04:37 am by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2018, 08:48:44 am »

Holy Word here. Happy Birthday, Andrew.

East Devon, Exmouth Town

Lib Dem 28.2 (-0.2)
Ind 26.6
Con 21.5 (-3.4)
Lab 13.0 (-8.9)
Green 10.7 (-14.0)

Turnout: 12.4

Solihull, Blythe

Con 75.9 (+24.8)
Lab 13.6 (+4.6)
Lib Dem 10.5 (+10.5)

Turnout 15.8

Basingstoke and Deane, Kempshott

Con 58.9 (-5.6)
Lab 31.4 (+12.3)
Lib Dem 9.7 (+9.7)

Turnout 20.6

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North

SNP 37.0 (-3.3)
Con 31.7 (+7.7)
Lab 23.7 (-3.0)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.1)
Green 3.6 (-0.3)

SNP
769
795
818
980
Con
658
661
693
784
Lab
493
513
538
Lib Dem
84
101
Green
74

Turnout 24.7

SNP hold Clackmannanshire North
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 02:21:45 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2018, 03:56:01 pm »

Can't speak for the other by-elections but expect the North Clacks by-election to have an even smaller turnout than normal: I'm next-door to Clackmannanshire and the weather is pretty bad up here.  Might lead to an odd result although an even less representative one than local by-elections tend to be.
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« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2018, 05:11:03 pm »

I think the most interesting part of these by-elections will be the comedy turnouts.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2018, 07:09:44 pm »

Another week's Holy Word here.

Harlow, Little Parndon and Hare Street

Lab 62.2 (+7.8)
Con 31.4 (+5.2)
UKIP 6.4 (-13.0)

East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill

Ind 32.6
Lib Dem 28.6 (+14.6)
Con 26.6 (-20.8)
Lab 10.3 (-4.9)
UKIP 2.0 (-10.2)

Tameside, Droylesden East (change in italics since Oct 2017 by-election)

Lab 61.5 (+10.1) (+1.2)
Con 30.5 (+21.4) (-2.2)
Green 6.1 (+0.2) (+2.7)
Lib Dem 1.9 (+1.9) (-1.7)

Dacorum, Northchurch

Lib Dem 59.2 (+40.4)
Con 28.2 (-32.1)
Lab 10.5 (-1.7)
Green 2,1 (-6.6)

Medway, Rochester West

Lab 47.5 (+25.7)
Con 39.5 (-2.8)
Lib Dem 4.7 (+1.3)
Green 4.2 (-5.4)
UKIP 4.1 (-17.5)

Rutland, Oakham South East

Ind 59.5 (+22.2)
Con 40.5 (+0.7)

Bolton, Farnworth

FK First 47.5 (+47.5)
Lab 38.2 (-10.2)
UKIP 6.7 (-29.7)
Con 6.0 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 0.9 (-2.1)
Green 0.7 (-2.8)

Nottingham, Wollaton West

Lab 48.8 (+15.4)
Con 43.4 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 5.3 (-1.3)
Green 1.6 (-9.4)
Elvis 0.9

Ind gain Petersfield Bell Hill from Con
Lib Dem gain Northchurch from Con
Lab gain Rochester West from Con
Ind gain Oakham South East from Con
Farnworth and Kearsley First gain Farnworth from Lab
Lab gain Wollaton West from Con
« Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 10:21:12 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

Tintrlvr
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2018, 09:25:27 pm »

Rough night for the Tories thus far.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2018, 04:12:49 am »

Impressively bad, the elections in May will be such fun.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2018, 06:54:41 am »

Would've been an excellent night for Labour if not for the shocking Bolton result.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2018, 01:42:30 pm »

Holy Word here.

South Kesteven, Stamford St John's

Con 39.4 (-8.9)
Ind 32.1
Lib Dem 18.8 (+18.8)
Lab 7.9 (+7.9)
Green 1.8 (+1.8)

South Kesteven, Stamford St George's

Con 45.6 (+15.9)
Stamford Ind 25.7 (+7.5)
Lab 16.8 (-0.5)
Lib Dem 10.0 (+10.0)
Green 1.9 (-11.7)

Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck

Con 32.7 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 26.3 (+11.2)
Lab 22.3 (+4.7)
Ind 18.7

Con gain Longbeck from Ind
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 10:30:30 am by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2018, 08:00:48 pm »

Holy Word here.

Bassetlaw, Worksop South East

Lab 77.3 (+23.4)
Con 15.2 (+15.2)
Lib Dem 7.5 (+7.5)

Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West

Lab 42.9 (+21.4)
Con 32.6 (+1.0)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+7.5)
Ind 5.4

Cheshire East, Bunbury

Con 53.3 (-16.9)
Lib Dem 27.5 (+27.5)
Lab 14.3 (-3.4)
Green 4.8 (-7.3)

Thurrock, Ockendon

Con 36.2 (+7.8) (wins on toss of coin)
Lab 36.2 (+11.2)
Thurrock Ind 27.6 (+27.6)

Chiltern, Ridgeway

Con 38.2 (+16.7)
Lab 32.8 (+32.8)
Lib Dem 29.0 (+11.7)

Aylesbury Vale, Central and Walton

Lib Dem 40.9 (+18.6)
Con 31.5 (-2.5)
Lab 19.8 (+2.1)
Green 4.5 (-3.8)
Ind 3.3

Midlothian, Penicuik

SNP 35.0 (-0.2)
Con 30.2 (+4.0)
Lab 27.6 (+2.0)
Green 7.2 (+1.7)

SNP
1663
1803
2237
Con
1433
1469
1788
Lab
1310
1414
Green
344

Lab gain Leek West from Con
Con gain Ockendon from Thurrock Ind elected as UKIP
Con gain Ridgeway from Ind
Lib Dem gain Central and Walton from Con
SNP gain Penicuik from Lab
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 09:54:00 am by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2018, 12:46:59 am »

A Holy Word here.

Knowsley, Page Moss

Lab 78.2 (+3.7)
Green 8.8 (-16.7)
UKIP 8.1 (+8.1)
Con 4.9 (+4.9)

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