Will DC trend Democratic in 2020?

[I’m not Stu]

DC is already so Democratic, but will it trend even more D in 2020?

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  If 2020 is a bigger Dem PV win, there isn't enough room left to swing in DC, and if it's a Trump PV win, he probably gets higher black support and/or there is lower black turnout than in 2016.

[I’m not Stu]

White voters in DC are heavily Democratic too.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Probably not.  If 2020 is a bigger Dem PV win, there isn't enough room left to swing in DC, and if it's a Trump PV win, he probably gets higher black support and/or there is lower black turnout than in 2016.

Since DC isn't voting for Democrats by a 99% margin, it's not trending D.

[nclib]

IIRC, DC has always trended the opposite direction of the change in the national popular vote.

[I’m not Stu]

DC always seems to trend Democratic, despite already being safer D than anywhere else.

[Reaganfan]

Probably, it's a sh*thole.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Probably, it's a sh*thole.

I'd use that word to describe Appalachia or parts of the Deep South.

[RINO Tom]

Probably, it's a sh*thole.

I'd use that word to describe Appalachia or parts of the Deep South.

Why all of Appalachia but only parts of the Deep South?  Also, Reaganfan is from neither, so what is the point of your comment?

[IceSpear]

Probably, it's a sh*thole.

I'd use that word to describe Appalachia or parts of the Deep South.

Why all of Appalachia but only parts of the Deep South?  Also, Reaganfan is from neither, so what is the point of your comment?

The point would presumably be that it is true.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess DC's swing depends quite a bit on whether the 3rd party vote is larger or smaller than in 2016.  Trump got 4%, while Johnson and Stein combined got about 3%.  So if the 3rd party vote disintegrates, then maybe Trump will do a little better.  OTOH, if the 3rd party vote is higher, then Trump might come in third place.

[RINO Tom]

Probably, it's a sh*thole.

I'd use that word to describe Appalachia or parts of the Deep South.

Why all of Appalachia but only parts of the Deep South?  Also, Reaganfan is from neither, so what is the point of your comment?

The point would presumably be that it is true.

Right, but it read as a sort of "comeback" or "gotcha" to Reganfan.  LOL, is he supposed to be insulted when people shlt on Appalachia just because it votes like he votes?  I doubt you get horribly offended when someone makes fun of the sh**ttiest parts of Detroit.

[Doimper]

We need to think of a swing sh**thole for all the moderate heroes to dump on.

[Skunk]

We need to think of a swing sh**thole for all the moderate heroes to dump on.

Florida.

[Lord Admirale]

If Trump is POTUS, no. There's gonna be a huge PV swing against him, and DC is maxing out its Dem vote. While the whole country would swing D, DC (may) swing D, but will ultimately trend R.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

We need to think of a swing sh**thole for all the moderate heroes to dump on.

Swing State Sh!thole sounds like a metal band or something.

[Reaganfan]

I don't believe I inspired Trump to use the phrase, but damn the coincidence.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

We need to think of a swing sh**thole for all the moderate heroes to dump on.

Florida.

South Florida is cool. How about Iowa?

[x-Guy]

I highly doubt Republicans are ever going to trend in DC of all places. So yes, DC will trend even more Democratic in the future.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I highly doubt Republicans are ever going to trend in DC of all places. So yes, DC will trend even more Democratic in the future.

Realistically, I don't see how that's possible.

Look at it this way; in 2016 Clinton won the National Popular Vote by 2.1% and won DC by 86.4%. so for DC to trend Democratic, we'd have to see a Democrat win it by more than 86.4%, or win it by a similar margin while losing the national popular vote. I don't think that's likely.

[Sol]

DC is getting whiter with gentrification. Even though whites in DC are heavily Democratic, they'll still be less so than black folks--thus an R trend.

[I’m not Stu]

DC is getting whiter with gentrification. Even though whites in DC are heavily Democratic, they'll still be less so than black folks--thus an R trend.

It trended D the past few elections as is got whiter. The white population in DC is becoming more liberal, especially because newcomers work in heavily Democratic industries.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2008&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

It depends on two things. 1. Black turnout (if higher, DC trends D) 2. Trump's share of the vote nationally. (If it rises, DC trends D, but if it falls, DC trends R by virtue of being less elastic than anywhere else)