CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 01:59:51 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 14
Poll
Question: Who makes runoff?
#1
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)		  
#2
John Chiang (D)		  
#3
Delaine Eastin (D)		  
#4
Doug Ose (R)		  
#5
John Cox (R)		  
#6
Travis Allen (R)		  
#7
Other (specify candidate)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 124

Author Topic: CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???  (Read 35788 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 06, 2018, 01:42:44 AM »
With so many undecided voters in the polls, who faces Newsom in November?
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2018, 01:46:01 AM »
It'll be Villaraigosa.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2018, 01:56:27 AM »
How do you know? All the polls have a high number of undecided likely voters.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,795


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2018, 02:45:41 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2018, 03:09:05 PM by Oryxslayer »
Quote from: ERM64man on January 06, 2018, 01:56:27 AM
How do you know? All the polls have a high number of undecided likely voters.

Because Villaraigosa has a comparativly high floor due to his support out of LA County. No other dem has a base that size (besides Newsom), and the CA Repulican vote is both unmotived and has more candidates runinng then the dem field.

The only other real option in to make the runoff is Chiang. California is a expensive state, and only Newsom/Chiang/Villaraigosa are actually pulling in the necessary cash. The problem for Chiang though is that his natural base is the Bay Area - which is Newsom's stronghold. So Chiang doesn't have a base when the other two already control the big dem vote hubs.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2018, 03:03:13 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2018, 12:14:32 PM by ERM64man »
Breakthrough Institute founder Michael Shellenberger (I) is in. Shellenberger is an independent Democrat. Nine Democratic candidates declared. The unknowns might be spoilers who could possibly prevent Villaraigosa from advancing.

Democratic candidates (including independents):
Michael Bracamontes (D)
John Chiang (D)
Ted Crisell (D)
Delaine Eastin (D)
Harmesh Kumar (D)
Gavin Newsom (D)
Klement Tinaj (D)
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
Michael Shellenberger (I, effectively an environmentalist moderate Democrat)
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2018, 06:32:03 AM »

Agreed. I think Newsom then wins 56-44%.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2018, 02:45:38 PM »
What would a Newsom vs. Chiang runoff look like? Would Newsom win every county against Eastin in a runoff?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,714
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2018, 09:37:34 AM »
Villaraigosa, unfortunately. I want Newsom to run against a GOPer. Dems versus Dem races, like CA-Sen 2016, are boring. The top-two system is horrible.

I preddict a Newsom win, with about 54%.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2018, 11:27:19 PM »
Would Villaraigosa make the runoff closer than Chiang or Eastin?
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2018, 02:40:09 PM »
Is Newsom truly inevitable
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2018, 02:52:52 PM »
No. Favored, but not inevitable. A scandal could bring him down.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2018, 03:20:07 PM »

Accept The Gavin as our Lord and Savior
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2018, 10:33:44 PM »
Godvin Newsom
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,255
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM »
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2018, 12:27:32 AM »
Quote from: Tea Party Hater on January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.
I think the affair might be brought up too.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2018, 04:07:46 AM »
Quote from: Tea Party Hater on January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2018, 02:33:53 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on January 10, 2018, 04:07:46 AM
Quote from: Tea Party Hater on January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa
Could Chiang defeat Newsom?
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2018, 02:03:47 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on January 10, 2018, 04:07:46 AM
Quote from: Tea Party Hater on January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa
Villaraigosa's numbers dropped in the latest poll.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2018, 08:14:39 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on January 10, 2018, 02:33:53 PM
Quote from: Interlocutor on January 10, 2018, 04:07:46 AM
Quote from: Tea Party Hater on January 09, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa
Could Chiang defeat Newsom?
Probably. He has the lowest sleaze factor in the race.
Logged
Joey1996
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,986


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2018, 05:32:09 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on January 09, 2018, 02:52:52 PM
No. Favored, but not inevitable. A scandal could bring him down.

He already had his fair share of scandals
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2018, 09:37:31 PM »
Chiang is far ahead of Newsom among African-American voters in the SurveyUSA poll.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2018, 10:32:29 PM »
Patricia Spearman.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2018, 08:58:10 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2018, 09:01:16 PM by ERM64man »
Newsom vs. Villaraigosa map. Any guess on the tossups? What about Newsom vs. Chiang
 and Newsom vs. Eastin maps? I need some help on those.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,197
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2018, 09:12:49 PM »
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on January 18, 2018, 09:08:13 PM
Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2018, 09:15:39 PM »
Quote from: L.D. Smith, Aggie! It's Real Expenses Again on January 18, 2018, 09:12:49 PM
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on January 18, 2018, 09:08:13 PM
Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?
Newsom is favored, but not invincible. What counties could he lose to Chiang or Eastin?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 14  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 13 queries.