CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[I’m not Stu]

Which counties would Newsom lose in these hypothetical D vs. D matchups?

Newsom vs. Villaraigosa: Which ones does Villaraigosa win?
Newsom vs. Chiang: Which counties does Chiang win?
Newsom vs. Eastin: Which counties does Eastin win?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This race is pretty boring. Unless Newsom is a pedophile, he's governor-elect. Does the second place vanity contest really matter?

Whether the second place finisher has a D or an R after their name certainly has implications for the longterm future of the CAGOP.

[I’m not Stu]

The latest PPIC poll shows Villaraigosa winning Los Angeles County.

[Joey1996]

Starting to look like it will be Chiang

[I’m not Stu]

The California Democratic Party will not be endorsing any gubernatorial candidate.

[Torrain]

Is Newsom vs Villaraigosa guaranteed at this point? Don't get me wrong, I'd love Chiang to advance, but as long as the top two democrats keep amassing establishment support and union endorsements, there's very little space for anyone else to muscle in. If Eastin dropped out and endorsed Chiang, or either Cox/Allen dropped out to endorse the other, things could change, but right now the race looks pretty static.

[Canis]

here were each candidates pitches to the delegates before the votes
Gavins

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Antonios

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Johns

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Delaines

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http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-here-s-what-california-s-democratic-1519523877-htmlstory.html

[I’m not Stu]

Is Newsom vs Villaraigosa guaranteed at this point? Don't get me wrong, I'd love Chiang to advance, but as long as the top two democrats keep amassing establishment support and union endorsements, there's very little space for anyone else to muscle in. If Eastin dropped out and endorsed Chiang, or either Cox/Allen dropped out to endorse the other, things could change, but right now the race looks pretty static.

Newsom vs. Villaraigosa is not guaranteed. The latest poll shows Villaraigosa and Chiang tied.

[AndyHogan14]

Thrilled that Newsom didn’t get (anywhere near) the 60% necessary to win the endorsement. I would love for Chiang to get to the general because I believe he is the only Democrat that may have enough crossover appeal to win some GOP voters in addition to a significant chunk of Dem voters—which may be enough to win. While he is a progressive, Republicans HATE Newsom and would come out to vote for someone like Chiang (but not Villaraigosa). Newsom must be stopped and I think that Chiang has the best chance of beating him.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don’t want Republicans coming out to vote, though. It’ll hurt Dems in close House and Assembly races.

[Jeppe]

I like Chiang for Governor and Kounalakis for LG. Newsom is probably going to win though.

[AndyHogan14]

I don’t want Republicans coming out to vote, though. It’ll hurt Dems in close House and Assembly races.

Normally I’d agree...but Gavin Newsom would be an unmitigated disaster which may undo a lot of the good Jerry Brown has done over the past 8 years.

[King Lear]

What the hell is wrong with Newson? He supports Single-Payer healthcare, stricter Gun Control, and was one of the First people to have the guts to support Same-Sex marriage, aren't these the issues Democrats are spose to stand up for?

[YE]

What the hell is wrong with Newson? He supports Single-Payer healthcare, stricter Gun Control, and was one of the First people to have the guts to support Same-Sex marriage, aren't these the issues Democrats are spose to stand up for?

Gun control is too strict in California as is, same sex marriage is already legal, and he calls himself fiscally conservative. 

[I’m not Stu]

With Newsom failing to receive the endorsement at the convention, how might this affect the race?

[AndyHogan14]

What the hell is wrong with Newson? He supports Single-Payer healthcare, stricter Gun Control, and was one of the First people to have the guts to support Same-Sex marriage, aren't these the issues Democrats are spose to stand up for?

My drop dead issue is that Newsom has, in the past, suggested that he may be in favor of stripping the University of California system of its legislative independence. Sadly, I cannot find the article in which he stated that he was in favor of this bill, but he has meddled in the affairs of my alma mater and the system as a whole in the past enough to make me extremely uncomfortable with him becoming governor. Also, I fear that he will not be able to control our legislature (like Brown has), and while Chiang is not Jerry Brown, he has the best shot at being able to keep Sacramento under control.

[Coastal Elitist]

Do party endorsements even matter? My state assembly representative is a Republican in a Democratic district of PVI +12. The Democrat in the last election had the party endorsement and President Obama's and still lost. My district voted 64.5-29.2% for Clinton.

[I’m not Stu]

Do party endorsements even matter? My state assembly representative is a Republican in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrat in the last election had the party endorsement and President Obama's and still lost. My district voted 64.5-29.2% for Clinton.

Party endorsements don't always matter. Feinstein won the 1992 primary despite Gray Davis receiving the endorsement.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What the hell is wrong with Newson? He supports Single-Payer healthcare, stricter Gun Control, and was one of the First people to have the guts to support Same-Sex marriage, aren't these the issues Democrats are spose to stand up for?

My drop dead issue is that Newsom has, in the past, suggested that he may be in favor of stripping the University of California system of its legislative independence. Sadly, I cannot find the article in which he stated that he was in favor of this bill, but he has meddled in the affairs of my alma mater and the system as a whole in the past enough to make me extremely uncomfortable with him becoming governor. Also, I fear that he will not be able to control our legislature (like Brown has), and while Chiang is not Jerry Brown, he has the best shot at being able to keep Sacramento under control.

Chiang has a track record of trying to keep the legislature in check (see the budget crises about a decade ago).

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/968187401301643264

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Based off that Doug Ose news, it's starting to look like Republicans are taking a strategy of "Have all the Democrats run, and only do one Republican per race, and make it to the runoff"

[_]

Based off that Doug Ose news, it's starting to look like Republicans are taking a strategy of "Have all the Democrats run, and only do one Republican per race, and make it to the runoff"

We'll see if they can get John Cox to drop out and endorse Travis Allen or vice versa, I doubt either situation will happen.

[sparkey]

An even better strategy for the GOP is to start running exactly 2 strong candidates in every race, and hope that the Democrats run 3+. Then results like this could happen (not that I think it will in this race, mainly because Newsom is too strong):

1. Allen 17%
2. Cox 17%
3. Newsom 16%
4. Villaraigosa 16%
5. Chiang 12%
6. Eastin 10%
7. Renteria 7%
Others 5%

Just like that, nearly 2 times fewer R votes than D votes, and yet the runoff is R vs. R.

[Holmes]

An even better strategy for the GOP is to start running exactly 2 strong candidates in every race, and hope that the Democrats run 3+. Then results like this could happen (not that I think it will in this race, mainly because Newsom is too strong):

1. Allen 17%
2. Cox 17%
3. Newsom 16%
4. Villaraigosa 16%
5. Chiang 12%
6. Eastin 10%
7. Renteria 7%
Others 5%

Just like that, nearly 2 times fewer R votes than D votes, and yet the runoff is R vs. R.

Question, even if Republicans run "strong candidates", why does the leading Democrat get 10% less than he's polling at in your example?

[sparkey]

Question, even if Republicans run "strong candidates", why does the leading Democrat get 10% less than he's polling at in your example?

Maybe things change? It's not a prediction, but it seems like a better path to gaming the Top 2 and getting somebody elected than only running 1 candidate and then getting stomped in round 2 every time.