CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cox, too much corrupt politicians  in LA

[Politician]

Cox, too much corrupt politicians  in LA

Are you sure you're a socialist?

Would vote Chiang if I lived in CA, but I don't (and I'm not of voting age.)

[henster]

Asians sometimes pull above their weight in Cali races and polls really do a poor job of gauging their support, wouldn't surprise me to see Chiang end up ahead of Villaraigosa.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't see a path for Chiang to make the runoff. I'm pretty sure at this point that it will be Cox vs Newsom.

Yeah. I'm still voting Chiang, but unless he gets some serious momentum, I don't think he can pull off second.

Same. I still think there is a narrow path for villa, though it requires polls so far to be inaccurately sampling Hispanics do to both the language issue and the huge size of the state. Not impossible, but hard.

That or there's a Shy Allen Effect that ends up splitting the GOP vote. Allen sounds more like Trump, Cox got the endorsement, that's a potential recipe for Alabama all over again as far as the GOP are concerned.

[Oryxslayer]

Theres three big sources of uncertainty, which are making most if not all polls bad - besides the obvious question of turnout:

1. As stated, there are a lot more Republicans on the ballot then are in polls, which offer Rep voters more choices. So there could easily be some dropoff there. This is less likely to affect dems since polls offer a heap of choices for respondents to decide between, and any dropoff would probably come from those already considering secondary dem options. Helps Allen if anyone.
2. Asian Turnout - often over-represented in CA primaries to their GE numbers. CA Asians are the single biggest block that has changed their party ID since 2016, so we will see if those OC vote flippers hold. Probably helps Chiang in the south and Newsom in the north.
3. Hispanic Turnout - often lower in primaries then in the GE, and especially in off years when compared to presidential ones. Evidence from other primaries however suggests that Hispanics are more mobilized to cast primary ballots this cycle, and CA has made it easier to vote so as to increase participation of these soft-voters. They are also harder to poll. The Hispanic composition of the electorate probably decides Villa's numbers.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm trying to predict county results using PPIC and SUSA data. So far, the race-only PPIC model (PPIC will be simpler because there weren't as many demographic crosstabs) doesn't pass the smell test. It's showing that Newsom will get less in SF than Shasta. There's also very little spread in the results. I'm going to see if I can find a good source for voter registration by party by county because I think that would help iron out a lot of differences. The solely race based model appears to be bunk. (see XKCD number 1132)

Adding the vote by party registration is the only additional thing I can add based on PPIC's crosstabs. SUSA has age too.

While writing this, I averaged the race and party models from PPIC and it looks a bit better. Cox at least wins some counties now. It just seemed off that he wasn't winning any before. Unfortunately, I haven't come up with a way to model regional references (ie Newsom in the Bay Area and Villaraigosa in LA and Imperial Counties). In the Party+Race model, Villaraigosa just ekes out a win in Imperial and loses in LA and all other counties (I think he'll do much better in Imperial and LA, maybe in the San Joaquin Valley too). As a note, PPIC has LA County as its own region and Villaraigosa underperforms there by about 7%. I'm guessing that Newsom underperforms in the Bay Area as well given that his modeled SF vote is about 34% and the polls have him at 42% in the whole region.

I might have to look into fitting the data with if statements to estimate regional differences, because I'm still not happy with the model yet. If age doesn't help, then it's time to add some secret BS sauce.

I'll post a map (later) in the morning since I don't feel like mucking around with Paint or that Mapchart site that I'll try too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

  Just got a mailer from the AV campaign encouraging Republicans to vote for him as he represents the most moderate candidate with a chance to beat the liberal Newsome. It basically said neither Cox nor Allen would have a chance vs Newsome so might as well vote AV to help get him into the runoff.

I mean, he’s not wrong

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Theres three big sources of uncertainty, which are making most if not all polls bad - besides the obvious question of turnout:

1. As stated, there are a lot more Republicans on the ballot then are in polls, which offer Rep voters more choices. So there could easily be some dropoff there. This is less likely to affect dems since polls offer a heap of choices for respondents to decide between, and any dropoff would probably come from those already considering secondary dem options. Helps Allen if anyone.
2. Asian Turnout - often over-represented in CA primaries to their GE numbers. CA Asians are the single biggest block that has changed their party ID since 2016, so we will see if those OC vote flippers hold. Probably helps Chiang in the south and Newsom in the north.
3. Hispanic Turnout - often lower in primaries then in the GE, and especially in off years when compared to presidential ones. Evidence from other primaries however suggests that Hispanics are more mobilized to cast primary ballots this cycle, and CA has made it easier to vote so as to increase participation of these soft-voters. They are also harder to poll. The Hispanic composition of the electorate probably decides Villa's numbers.

1. My mapping model gave 5% in all counties to the randos.
2. That's something interesting to keep in mind, thanks.
3. Yeah, Villaraigosa could take second if Hispanics really turn out or if they he was really underestimated in polls.

Back to modeling, I looked at the cross-tabs for SUSA and PPIC. The polling looks like rubbish. Education is completely different between the two polls. Looking at the regional cross tabs (kinda difficult because the regions aren't exactly the same), it's a bit better. It's kinda off due to how much better Gavin did in the SUSA poll, especially in the central valley (though SUSA's "Central Valley" is a catch all for Non-LA, Non-Bay Area, and Non-Inland Empire, which is broader than PPIC) (PPIC uses just the Central Valley itself; the other areas are not in any regions, but are factored into the overall statewide results).

Not sure if I'll try to model SUSA.

The big problem is that I don't really have any way to model regional preferences (especially Newsom vs Villaraigosa) other than just adding in some factor that I make up so that Villaraigosa does really well in Imperial County and well in the LA area.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I went ahead and made a map that is mostly just gut feelings based on polls and how much Cox is getting pushed as the Republican choice. My apologies that the colors for Villaraigosa and Cox at the 20-30% level are so close. Mapchart.net worked pretty well though aside from not being able to upload the image.

[Canis]

Don't think Chiang or Allen wins any counties? I'd say Allens got a chance in OC and some norcal counties and the other super conservative ones. Chiangs also got a chance in some bay area counties and maybe Ventura

[I’m not Stu]

Don't think Chiang or Allen wins any counties? I'd say Allens got a chance in OC and some norcal counties and the other super conservative ones. Chiangs also got a chance in some bay area counties and maybe Ventura

Does Chiang win Garden Grove and Irvine?

[Coastal Elitist]

Don't think Chiang or Allen wins any counties? I'd say Allens got a chance in OC and some norcal counties and the other super conservative ones. Chiangs also got a chance in some bay area counties and maybe Ventura

Ironically one poll's crosstabs showed that Allen was only getting like 6% in Orange County. His best region was the Central Valley. Chiang isn't winning any counties.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Don't think Chiang or Allen wins any counties? I'd say Allens got a chance in OC and some norcal counties and the other super conservative ones. Chiangs also got a chance in some bay area counties and maybe Ventura

I see Newsom as too hard to beat in the Bay Area. I was thinking about Chiang's chances of winning a county. Honestly, one of his better options might be Sacramento. There's a decently large Asian population (though not necessarily mostly Chinese) and a large number of state workers. I know he has at least three votes here in Sac. Orange County could be good in parts, but I don't think that he'll be able to overcome the Republicans. If they don't coalesce around Cox, there's a chance for Chiang. Chiang is something of a moderate in that I think he'll stand up to the Legislature. There may be rewards in Orange County if he can protect that without alienating too many liberal Democrats.

Allen is an interesting story. I would think that Trump would have endorsed him, but go figure. Maybe he sees Cox as a fellow traveler? Newsom has been running ads that are as much ads for Cox as they are for himself. Orange County should be one of his better places, but his district isn't the full county. If he was from one of the larger districts that covered several counties, I would've give him a shot there.

Orange County is a tough call. He's taking Trump-like positions while his opponent was endorsed by Trump. Going by the 2016 election, Trump isn't exactly the best fit. I'm thinking Cox will take it narrowly.

Don't think Chiang or Allen wins any counties? I'd say Allens got a chance in OC and some norcal counties and the other super conservative ones. Chiangs also got a chance in some bay area counties and maybe Ventura

Ironically one poll's crosstabs showed that Allen was only getting like 6% in Orange County. His best region was the Central Valley. Chiang isn't winning any counties.

I was looking at those cross tabs. Some of them were really wonky.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

With a split Democratic field down south, I think that Cox can win in SD and Orange. SUSA has Gavin doing really well in the Inland Empire, which just seems a bit off to me. It has struck me as being somewhat conservative (not as much as Orange or parts of NorCal though). A split between Newsom and Villaraigosa would allow Cox to slip into first place in Riverside and San Bernardino.

When I made my map, I was keeping the 2016 Senate primary in mind with a few key changes: Republicans seem to have coalesced more around Cox than they did for any candidate in the 2016 Senate run. The 2016 senate run is what guided me on SLO and Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara has been a bellweather in many cases and my rating of 30-40% Newsom is reflective of that (I'd lean closer to 30% than 40%).

I'll be honest about Ventura, I don't have a great read on them. Imperial is obviously going for Villaraigosa (felt I should include it for completeness).

Keen is probably going to be the most conservative of the bunch looking at total Republican votes. I'm thinking that will translate into a Cox win.

All of that said, I would think that Hispanics would be more motivated to turnout this year, so Villaraigosa could be boosted down south.

Looking at the Bay Area, Kamala Harris swept pretty heavily there and polling suggests that Newsom is strong there as well (and as should be expected). A split between Democrats and Republicans means that Newsom could pick off many (if not all) of these counties with a plurality. Santa Clara does have a high Asian population, but I'm not sure it would be enough to give Chiang a victory.

The Budget Crisis under Schwarzenegger was a long time ago, perhaps too far back for it to be helpful for Chiang, but it will probably boost Chiang in the Sacramento area.

Yolo County is an interesting place in that I would imagine there's a fair amount of state workers and a decent Asian population. However, I would guess that a fair number of Asians there are either international students or are registered in their home counties (aka the Bay and down South). UC Davis is a quarter school in terms of undergrads, so students will still be in Davis. I do know that Newsom is doing a rally on Saturday in Davis (which I plan on attending for kicks), but that probably won't have a huge impact. As I type this, I'm becoming more and more interested in Yolo. I would not call it part of the Bay Area. Students are probably about 20% of the population, maybe a bit less. Who knows, with Trump in the White House, maybe they'll turnout for once.

I wouldn't even consider parts of Solano County (cough Dixon cough) as part of the Bay either, but Dixon is  all of Solano. A precinct map would probably illustrate the differences between Dixon and somewhere else in Solano like Vallejo or something.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

With a split Democratic field down south, I think that Cox can win in SD and Orange. SUSA has Gavin doing really well in the Inland Empire, which just seems a bit off to me. It has struck me as being somewhat conservative (not as much as Orange or parts of NorCal though). A split between Newsom and Villaraigosa would allow Cox to slip into first place in Riverside and San Bernardino.

When I made my map, I was keeping the 2016 Senate primary in mind with a few key changes: Republicans seem to have coalesced more around Cox than they did for any candidate in the 2016 Senate run. The 2016 senate run is what guided me on SLO and Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara has been a bellweather in many cases and my rating of 30-40% Newsom is reflective of that (I'd lean closer to 30% than 40%).

I'll be honest about Ventura, I don't have a great read on them. Imperial is obviously going for Villaraigosa (felt I should include it for completeness).

Keen is probably going to be the most conservative of the bunch looking at total Republican votes. I'm thinking that will translate into a Cox win.

All of that said, I would think that Hispanics would be more motivated to turnout this year, so Villaraigosa could be boosted down south.

Looking at the Bay Area, Kamala Harris swept pretty heavily there and polling suggests that Newsom is strong there as well (and as should be expected). A split between Democrats and Republicans means that Newsom could pick off many (if not all) of these counties with a plurality. Santa Clara does have a high Asian population, but I'm not sure it would be enough to give Chiang a victory.

The Budget Crisis under Schwarzenegger was a long time ago, perhaps too far back for it to be helpful for Chiang, but it will probably boost Chiang in the Sacramento area.

Yolo County is an interesting place in that I would imagine there's a fair amount of state workers and a decent Asian population. However, I would guess that a fair number of Asians there are either international students or are registered in their home counties (aka the Bay and down South). UC Davis is a quarter school in terms of undergrads, so students will still be in Davis. I do know that Newsom is doing a rally on Saturday in Davis (which I plan on attending for kicks), but that probably won't have a huge impact. As I type this, I'm becoming more and more interested in Yolo. I would not call it part of the Bay Area. Students are probably about 20% of the population, maybe a bit less. Who knows, with Trump in the White House, maybe they'll turnout for once.

I wouldn't even consider parts of Solano County (cough Dixon cough) as part of the Bay either, but Dixon is  all of Solano. A precinct map would probably illustrate the differences between Dixon and somewhere else in Solano like Vallejo or something.

I agree on the Inland Empire. I think Villaraigosa could just come out first in San Bernardino (29% Villaraigosa, 28% Cox, 16% Newsom, 10% Allen, 5% Chiang), but it'll probably be Cox-Villaraigosa-Newsom-Chiang-Allen. Riverside County will definitely have Cox on top. So will Orange. I actually think San Diego County could go to Villaraigosa (35% Villaraigosa, 30% Cox, 25% Newsom, 5% Allen, 5% Chiang), but I don't know what the Newsom split will be. I expect a similar result in Ventura as San Diego.
Finally, I don't think the Harris=Newsom, Sanchez=Villaraigosa comparison is necessarily accurate.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What I'm curious about are the peripheral Southern California Counties. Does Villaraigosa win San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.? Also, is each of the nine Bay Area counties truly a lock for Newsom?

(snip)

I agree on the Inland Empire. I think Villaraigosa could just come out first in San Bernardino (29% Villaraigosa, 28% Cox, 16% Newsom, 10% Allen, 5% Chiang), but it'll probably be Cox-Villaraigosa-Newsom-Chiang-Allen. Riverside County will definitely have Cox on top. So will Orange. I actually think San Diego County could go to Villaraigosa (35% Villaraigosa, 30% Cox, 25% Newsom, 5% Allen, 5% Chiang), but I don't know what the Newsom split will be. I expect a similar result in Ventura as San Diego.
Finally, I don't think the Harris=Newsom, Sanchez=Villaraigosa comparison is necessarily accurate.

My thinking on Newsom/Villaraigosa as being similar to Harris/Sanchez is basically looking at Northern California vs Southern California. It's not a perfect match (I don't think that Villaraigosa will do as well in Orange County, for example), but I think there's some merit, looking at the polls. I could see Gavin being a bit less popular in say far Northern California since he was more of an activist as mayor and Lt Gov than Harris was as DA or AG. He has been pushing his pro-gun control agenda pretty heavily.

[Canis]

Saw this thought that it was pretty interesting
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/24/republican-meg-whitman-backs-democrat-antonio-villaraigosa-for-governor/
Also Villas been sending anti cox and pro allen mailers to republicans interesting strategy except the paid for villa at the bottom show doesn't do him any favors
http://www.breitbart.com/2018-elections/2018/05/27/antonio-villaraigosa-supporting-group-sends-anti-john-cox-mailers-to-republican-voters/

[Maxwell]

Saw this thought that it was pretty interesting
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/24/republican-meg-whitman-backs-democrat-antonio-villaraigosa-for-governor/
Also Villas been sending anti cox and pro allen mailers to republicans interesting strategy except the paid for villa at the bottom show doesn't do him any favors
http://www.breitbart.com/2018-elections/2018/05/27/antonio-villaraigosa-supporting-group-sends-anti-john-cox-mailers-to-republican-voters/

that may be one of the first smart things I've seen Villarigosa do.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Saw this thought that it was pretty interesting
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/24/republican-meg-whitman-backs-democrat-antonio-villaraigosa-for-governor/
Also Villas been sending anti cox and pro allen mailers to republicans interesting strategy except the paid for villa at the bottom show doesn't do him any favors
http://www.breitbart.com/2018-elections/2018/05/27/antonio-villaraigosa-supporting-group-sends-anti-john-cox-mailers-to-republican-voters/

that may be one of the first smart things I've seen Villarigosa do.

It's interesting to see candidates adapting to the top two system (see also Newsom's ads that are effectively ads for Cox too).

Also, here are my CA-Gov Predictions

Newsom 28%
Cox 21%
Villaraigosa 19%
Chiang 12%
Allen 9.5%
Eastin 4.75%
Renteria 0.75%

Others 5%

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article212416434.html

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Does this hurt Newsom in anyway, either in the top-two, or more likely, in the general, should he face another Democrat?

[Oryxslayer]

Too late for any impact for the top two. If Newsom ends up facing another Dem, (really only Villa) then maybe - there are enough voters that can move between the candidates that any potential Newsom scandal could change the outcome. If it ends up DvD, then the race could be close. If the end result is Newsom v Cox, then no scandal will affect him at all. There are enough dem partisans that barring a Moore/Greintens scandal, Newsom will walk away easy.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

CA state Secretary of State's election results:

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

[Terry the Fat Shark]

lol Villa in 3rd in LA County

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

lol Villa in 3rd in LA County

It isn't even 5% in.