CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[I’m not Stu]

When will the next primary poll be released?

[King Cobra]

The 2002 map was a compromise map that protected seats on both sides of the aisle. Considering that the redistricting commission was approved by voters it would have to be decommissioned by voters and it's beyond unlikely that voters would do that.

Democrats had complete control when they decided on a compromise map. No different (actually worse) than Cuomo letting Republicans keep the NY Senate.

[Dr. MB]

California really needs to get rid of it's bullshit unilateral disarmament policy when it comes to redistricting. We should be the most gerrymandered state in the country.

I think it’s fairly gerrymandered already (especially some of the central districts). The districts should be as close to squares as possible. I can’t stand gerrymandering in any form, even when it helps your candidate.

[Young Conservative]

California really needs to get rid of it's bullshit unilateral disarmament policy when it comes to redistricting. We should be the most gerrymandered state in the country.

At least you're honest...

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

[I’m not Stu]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

[I’m not Stu]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

I deleted that thread because I thought it was too unlikely. Democrat Ramon Barajas just declared. Check out the SurveyUSA poll with hypothetical candidates. Eastin is polling as poorly as perennial Democratic candidate Akinyemi Agbede and Libertarian Zoltan Istvan.

[King Lear]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

This is ridiculous, the California Democratic Party may be stupid enough to let the Top-two primary screw them out of a few comptitive House races (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48), but they will never let two Republicans make the general election runoff for governor. Gavin Newson will make the runoff no matter what due to the fact he has more money and name recognition then any of the other candidates combined (Democrats and Republicans), and he will either face Villariagosa or a Republican (most likely Cox due to his ability to self-fund) in the runoff.

[I’m not Stu]

When will the next poll come out?

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

This is ridiculous, the California Democratic Party may be stupid enough to let the Top-two primary screw them out of a few comptitive House races (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48), but they will never let two Republicans make the general election runoff for governor. Gavin Newson will make the runoff no matter what due to the fact he has more money and name recognition then any of the other candidates combined (Democrats and Republicans), and he will either face Villariagosa or a Republican (most likely Cox due to his ability to self-fund) in the runoff.

You say that, but parties make mistakes all the time. Also Newsom doesn't have that great of name recognition. If you take a random poll of Californian's walking on the street most probably don't know who the Lieutenant Governor is.

[King Lear]

By the way, here's my early prediction of the California Gubernatorial Primary results.

2018 California Gubernatorial Primary Results:
Gavin Newsom: 25%
John Cox: 20%
Travis Allen: 15%
Antonio Villariagosa: 15%
John Chiang: 10%
Delaine Eastin: 5%
Doug Ose: 5%
Others: 5%

And the general election.

2018 California Gubernatorial Election Results:
Gavin Newsom: 60% WINNER
John Cox: 40%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Just entertain me for a second.  In the very unlikely event of a Allen vs. Cox runoff, who would be favored?

[Canis]

Just entertain me for a second.  In the very unlikely event of a Allen vs. Cox runoff, who would be favored?

It would be close but Allen would win for a couple of reasons
Cox is pro life and he has a weird idea about shipping illegal immigrants to mexico then bringing them back in the summer to farm
Allen is pro-choice but extremely anti immigration  immigration is a huge issue to most voters so who ever moderates on the issue would win but at the minute Allen would be slightly favored

[Oryxslayer]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

[Coastal Elitist]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

I don't know why you think this race is on track for D vs D. In the last poll Allen was basically tied with Villariagosa with more undecided Republicans than Democrats. With more top Democratic candidates there is less Democratic vote to go around. Only 18% of Democrats were undecided in the last poll compared to 37% of Republicans and 40% of Independents. If Cox or Allen can get the majority of the Republican support this race will definitely be D vs R. You need to actually look at the numbers. This is a different race from 2016's Senate race. None of those Republican candidates actually really tried to campaign or participated in debates.

[I’m not Stu]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

The gubernatorial race is likely D vs. D. Is the Senate race more uncertain? The latest Senate poll (which is the only one with more than two declared candidates) indicates a D vs. R race. The hypothetical Senate primary poll with Kevin de Leon and John Cox shows a Feinstein vs. Cox runoff.

Latest Senate poll:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 34%
Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R): 6%
Caren Lancona (R): 5%
Patrick Little (R): 5%
Stephen James Schrader (R): 5%
Kevin de Leon (D): 4%
Others: 10%

Primary poll with John Cox:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
John Cox (R): 32%
Kevin de Leon (D): 14%
Undecided: 14%

[Coastal Elitist]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

The gubernatorial race is likely D vs. D. Is the Senate race more uncertain? The latest Senate poll (which is the only one with more than two declared candidates) indicates a D vs. R race. The hypothetical Senate primary poll with Kevin de Leon and John Cox shows a Feinstein vs. Cox runoff.

Latest Senate poll:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 34%
Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R): 6%
Caren Lancona (R): 5%
Patrick Little (R): 5%
Stephen James Schrader (R): 5%
Kevin de Leon (D): 4%
Others: 10%

Primary poll with John Cox:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
John Cox (R): 32%
Kevin de Leon (D): 14%
Undecided: 14%

Due to the high number of undecided Republicans compared to Democrats I would say both races are favored to be D vs R. Especially the Senate because Feinstein in an incumbent and it will be hard for any Democrat to run a campaign against her and gain a substantial amount of the vote.

[I’m not Stu]

Ro Khanna endorses Newsom.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ro Khanna endorses Newsom.

Gamechanger.

[Oryxslayer]

Ro Khanna endorses Newsom.

Gamechanger.

Not sure if sarcastic or not. What would be an actual gamechanger is if a Bay Area congressman doesn't endorse the candidate which will be winning 60%+ in each of the Bay Area Counties in June.

[I’m not Stu]

Pace/USC poll: Close race for second between Villaraigosa, Cox, and Chiang.

Gavin Newsom (D): 29%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 11%
John Cox (R): 10%
John Chiang (D): 9%
Travis Allen (R): 8%
Delaine Eastin (D): 6%
Doug Ose (R): 4%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 18%

[Beet]

There is never any excitement in California elections. You have one person starting off with a big lead, and it's a foregone conclusion...

[I’m not Stu]

This race could be D vs. R if Doug Ose drops out.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is never any excitement in California elections. You have one person starting off with a big lead, and it's a foregone conclusion...

Top 2 has encouraged smoke filled back rooms to decide who the establishment candidate will be. Bavk before there was top 2, the 2006 Democratic primary was a real fight.