CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Coastal Elitist]

I still don't understand why people think two Democrats will make the runoff. If you look at the polls there are more Republicans undecided with most of the Democratic vote share taken and Cox is right behind Villaraigosa. If the last poll is to be believed 55% of the vote is going to the top 4 Democratic candidates, which doesn't leave much left and only 22% to the top 3 Republicans.

[I’m not Stu]

What's this?

[I’m not Stu]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

[Coastal Elitist]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I hope SurveyUSA does another poll soon. I'd like to see the breakdown of the vote. This poll only has 15% of the vote going to the Republicans with 29% of the vote undecided or other it doesn't say. Remember Governor is different then Senate. I expect the vote split to be 60% Democrat and 40% Republican

[I’m not Stu]

Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

[Holmes]

Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

The second place finisher won't get <10%.

[I’m not Stu]

Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

The second place finisher won't get <10%.

It's still unlikely the second place finisher gets 20+%. Likely gets 10-15%. The second place finisher in the Senate primary might get <10%, which has been shown in a poll.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I want to see a Chiang vs Villaraigosa runoff.

[I’m not Stu]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I want to see a Chiang vs Villaraigosa runoff.

Another possible Newsom scandal could cause that.

[I’m not Stu]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

[I’m not Stu]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

Which counties would Chiang win in a runoff against Newsom?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

Which counties would Chiang win in a runoff against Newsom?

Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura, I think. Not sure about Central Valley or San Diego.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

ERM64man, I wanna know some of your predictions on this race...

- Will the primary be close? Who finishes in the top 2?
- How will Chiang & Eastin do in the primaries?
- Who do the remaining 20-25% of undecided primary voters move to?
- Will someone other than Newsom or Villaarigosa win counties? If so, which ones?
- Which candidate stands the best chance of defeating Newsom?
- What would Newsom vs Villaraigosa/Chiang/Eastin/Allen runoffs look like to you?

[I’m not Stu]

ERM64man, I wanna know some of your predictions on this race...

- Will the primary be close? Who finishes in the top 2?
- How will Chiang & Eastin do in the primaries?
- Who do the remaining 20-25% of undecided primary voters move to?
- Will someone other than Newsom or Villaarigosa win counties? If so, which ones?
- Which candidate stands the best chance of defeating Newsom?
- What would Newsom vs Villaraigosa/Chiang/Eastin/Allen runoffs look like to you?

- Newsom finishes first in the primary. Villaraigosa, Chiang, and Cox all have a good chance to finish second.
- In a Newsom/Chiang runoff, Chiang wins Los Angeles (his home county) and Orange counties(with the help from the large cities of Irvine, Huntington Beach, and Garden Grove). I don't know about the other Southern California counties or the Central Valley. Chiang might win Ventura County
- In a Newsom/Eastin runoff, Eastin only wins Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity, and maybe some "State of Jefferson" counties.
- Allen would lose every county except some "State of Jefferson" counties due to a sexual harassment scandal. Allen doesn't even have a shot to make the top 2 anymore.
- In a Newsom/Villaraigosa runoff, Villaraigosa wins Los Angeles (his home county), Orange (with help from Santa Ana, West Anaheim, and East Garden Grove), Imperial, Riverside, San Bernardino, and many Central Valley counties. Villaraigosa might win San Diego County (especially if he wins all the neighboring counties).
- Chiang has the best chance to defeat Newsom.
- The undecideds go to many different candidates, some serious candidates and some unknowns. Many undecided GOP voters will likely go to Cox.

[Sir Mohamed]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

Just found time to watch this. Confirms me once more in my support for Newsom. But Chiang made a good impression, too. Actually it'll be fun to have a match-up between Travis Trump Allen against a Democrat and then go down in flames.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

California Police Chiefs Association & the California Peace Officers Research Association jointly endorsed Villaraigosa.

Among the reasons were Newsom's strong support for Props 47 (Reduce nonviolent crimes to misdemeanors), 63 (Gun control) and 64 (Marijuana legalization).

As well as Mayor Villarigosa's actions to prevent law enforcement cuts during the Recession

[MAINEiac4434]

I tend to vote against police unions, so I’m rooting for the Newsom/Chiang run off.

[I’m not Stu]

51 candidates are now in the race.

[Coastal Elitist]

51 candidates are now in the race.

The legislature needs to find some way to cap the number of candidates that can run. This is a ridiculous number and the voter information pamphlet is going to be ridiculously long. I don't understand why people that have no chance to win even bother entering.

[Oryxslayer]

51 candidates are now in the race.

Pff thats nothing. The recall had 135 candidate on the ballot

[Vega]

51 candidates are now in the race.

The legislature needs to find some way to cap the number of candidates that can run. This is a ridiculous number and the voter information pamphlet is going to be ridiculously long. I don't understand why people that have no chance to win even bother entering.

What are the requirements for getting on the ballot now?

I think something about a certain number of signatures from each county would suffice.  Something to show that you're committing to a statewide campaign.

I think that 1% of the total votes of the previous election for the same office to enter is more than fair.

[Sir Mohamed]

51 candidates are now in the race.

A lot more ran in the 2003 recall, with all appearing on a single ballot. Nevertheless, we have to get rid of the jungle primary.

[Torrain]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

[I’m not Stu]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Cox is toast. That is political implosion for a candidate in California.