CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

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With so many undecided voters in the polls, who faces Newsom in November?

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It'll be Villaraigosa.

How do you know? All the polls have a high number of undecided likely voters.

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Breakthrough Institute founder Michael Shellenberger (I) is in. Shellenberger is an independent Democrat. Nine Democratic candidates declared. The unknowns might be spoilers who could possibly prevent Villaraigosa from advancing.

Democratic candidates (including independents):
Michael Bracamontes (D)
John Chiang (D)
Ted Crisell (D)
Delaine Eastin (D)
Harmesh Kumar (D)
Gavin Newsom (D)
Klement Tinaj (D)
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
Michael Shellenberger (I, effectively an environmentalist moderate Democrat)

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What would a Newsom vs. Chiang runoff look like? Would Newsom win every county against Eastin in a runoff?

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Would Villaraigosa make the runoff closer than Chiang or Eastin?

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Is Newsom truly inevitable

No. Favored, but not inevitable. A scandal could bring him down.

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Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

I think the affair might be brought up too.

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Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa

Could Chiang defeat Newsom?

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Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

That'd work if he's in the top two with anyone but Villaraigosa

Villaraigosa's numbers dropped in the latest poll.

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Chiang is far ahead of Newsom among African-American voters in the SurveyUSA poll.

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Newsom vs. Villaraigosa map. Any guess on the tossups? What about Newsom vs. Chiang
and Newsom vs. Eastin maps? I need some help on those.

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Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?

Newsom is favored, but not invincible. What counties could he lose to Chiang or Eastin?

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Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?

Because it was his first run for a city wide office.

None of these candidates are a serious threat to Newsom. He’ll squash these losers like the bugs they are. I don’t think Chiang could even win Orange County.

Newsom probably won't win every county, regardless of which candidate he faces.

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In a one-on-one matchup, Which counties would Newsom lose to Villaraigosa, which ones would he lose to Chiang, and which ones would he lose to Eastin?

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Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

Newsom probably loses Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity to Eastin. Which counties would Chiang win, Orange, Los Angeles, San Diego?

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Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

Newsom probably loses Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity to Eastin. Which counties would Chiang win, Orange, Los Angeles, San Diego?

Chiang wouldn't carry any large counties.

What about Eastin?

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Would Delaine Eastin win anything other than Mendocino, Trinity, Humboldt, and maybe Santa Cruz?

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I think there is a real chance of one of the Republicans making the runoff (obviously with no chance), which would be important for turnout for downballot races.  I just wish there weren't two major Republicans- instead just one.

A Republican could make the runoff. There are 32 candidates. More Democrats are running than Republicans. 9 Republicans and 11 Democrats (12 Democrats counting independent Michael Shellenberger).

Candidates:
R:
Travis Allen
Doug Ose
John Cox
Stasyi Barth
Laura Smith
Brian Domingo
Robert Kleinberger
John Estrada
John Zuber
D:
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
John Chiang
Delaine Eastin
Akinyemi Agbede
David Asem
Klement Tinaj
Harmesh Kumar
Ted Crisell
Michael Bracamontes
Juan Bribiesca
I:
Michael Shellenberger
Andy Blanch
Grant Handzlik
Frederic Prinz von Anhalt
H. Fuji Shioura
L:
Zoltan Istvan
Nickolas Wildstar
G:
Veronica Fimbres
Josh Jones
Peace and Freedom:
Gloria La Riva
American Independent:
Joshua Laine
American Solidarity:
Desmond Silveira

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I don't think it's guaranteed that Newsom will make it through to the general election. He's only at 19% overall with 35% of the Democratic vote according to the last poll, which isn't great considering the primary is in 5 months. It is true that in last year's Senate race Harris was at 19% in early polls, but that was over a year before the primary. You would expect his poll numbers to be better than that. There were a lot of undecided voters in the most recent poll: 29% and 23% of those polled selected different candidates than the top 6.

Also in the latest poll it should be noted that 37% of Republicans were undecided opposed to 18% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. Allen was only 1 point behind Villaraigosa and there are more Republicans that are undecided. If the top 4 Democrats split the vote a Republican should make the top 2.

19% will make the runoff. One could make the runoff with only 7% (finishing second in the primary) with over 30 candidates in the race. Chiang, Villaraigosa, Allen, Ose, Cox, or Eastin could get in with just 7%.

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It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

Someone noted in another thread that Californians (including me) support the primary 60 system 60-26.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2017/

Independents (even GOP-leaning independents) would prefer to have someone like Feinstein on the ballot than a Republican who has no chance.

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It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

Where is the unconstitutionality? The constitution says nothing about a primary system and there is nothing in there that would guarantees anything to political parties.

Scalia said partisan blanket primaries are unconstitutional, but that the top-two (nonpartisan blanket primary) is constitutional.

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Could a D vs. D race be competitive?

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When will the next primary poll be released?

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There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

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There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

I deleted that thread because I thought it was too unlikely. Democrat Ramon Barajas just declared. Check out the SurveyUSA poll with hypothetical candidates. Eastin is polling as poorly as perennial Democratic candidate Akinyemi Agbede and Libertarian Zoltan Istvan.